Scenarios for future agriculture in Finland: A Delphi study among agri-food sector stakeholders

Agricultural and Food Science

Volumn 14, Issue 3, 2005, Pages 205-223

  Rikkonen, Pasi ^a  

^a FINNISH FOREST RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Finland)

Author keywords

Agri food sector; Agricultural policy; Delphi method; Futures studies; Scenarios; Strategic planning

Indexed keywords

ANIMALIA;

EID: 29344458250     PISSN: 14596067     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2137/145960605775013227     Document Type: Review

References (43)

1. Aakkula, J., Jokinen, P., Lankoski, L. & Nokkala, M. 2002. Maatalous, tietoyhteiskunta ja kestävä kehitys. Pilottitutkimus tieto- ja viestintäteknologisen muutoksen vaikutuksista maatalouden kestävyyteen. Agrifood Research Finland, Publications 19. 80 p.
2. Angus, A.J., Hodge, I.D., McNally, S. & Sutton, M.A. 2003. The setting of standards for agricultural nitrogen emissions: a case study of the Delphi technique. Journal of Environmental Management 4: 323-337.
3. Armstrong, J.S. 2001. Principles of forecasting. A Handbook for researchers and practitioners. Kluwer Academic Publishers: Boston/Dordrecht/ London. 849 p.
4. Bell, W. 1997a. Foundations of future studies - Human science for a new era. Volume I. New Brunswick: Transaction publishers. 365 p.
5. Bell, W. 1997b. Foundations of future studies - Human science for a new era. Volume II. New Brunswick: Transaction publishers. 379 p.
6. Bruinsma, J. (ed.). 2003. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO perspective. London: Earthscan Publications. 432 p.
7. Council of the European Union 2003. CAP Reform - Precidency compromise (in agreement with the Commission). Cited 24 February 2005. Updated 30 June 2003. Available on the Internet: http://register.consilium.eu.int/pdf/en/03/ st10/st10961en03.pdf.
8. Godet, M. 2000. The art of scenarios and strategic planning: tools and pitfalls. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 65: 3-22.
9. Inayatullah, S. 1993. From "Who am I?" to "When am I?" Framing the shape and time of the future. Futures 25: 235-253.
10. Kahn, H. & Wiener, A.J. 1967. The year 2000: A framework for speculation on the next thirty-three years. New York: The MacMillan. 431 p.
11. Kaljonen, M. & Rikkonen, P. 2004. Divergent images of multifunctional agriculture - A comparative study of the future images between farmers and agri-food experts in Finland. International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability 2, 3: 190-204.
12. Kamppinen, M., Kuusi, O. & Söderlund, S. (ed.). 2002. Tulevaisuuden tutkimus - perusteet ja sovellukset. Suomalaisen Kirjallisuuden Seuran Toimituksia 896. 928 p.
13. Kola, J. 1998. Reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy and agriculture in Finland. Agricultural and Food Science in Finland 7: 181-196.
14. Kröger, L. 2001. Luomutuotanto Suomessa 2010 - Luomuviljelijö iden tulevaisuuden näkemyksiä. MTT Economic Research, Working papers 13/2001. 55 p.
15. Kuusi, O. 1999. Expertise in the future use of generic technologies. Epistemic and methodological considerations concerning Delphi studies. 268 p.
16. Kuusi, O. 2003. Delfoi-menetelmä. In: Vapaavuori, M. & Von Bruun, S. (ed.). Miten tutkimme tulevaisuutta. Second edition. p. 134-144.
17. Lehtonen, H., Aakkula, J. & Rikkonen, P. 2005. Alternative agricultural policy scenarios, sector modelling and indicators: A sustainability assessment. Journal of Sustainable Agriculture 26, 4: 63-93.
18. Linstone, H.A. & Turoff, M. 1975. The Delphi method: Techniques and applications. Cited 15 March 2005. Available on the Internet: http://www.is.njit.edu/pubs/delphi-book/.
19. Loveridge, D. 1999. Foresight and Delphi processes as information sources for scenario planning. Ideas in progress, Paper number 11. PREST. Cited 15 March 2005. Updated Sebtember 1999. Available on the Internet: http://les.man.ac.uk/PREST/People/Staff/Denis_Loveridge. html#Ideas.
20. Loveridge, D. 2002. Experts and foresight: review and experience. Discussion paper series, Paper 02-09. PREST. Cited 15 March 2005. Updated Sebtember 1999. Available on the Internet: http://les.man.ac.uk/PREST/People/ Staff/Denis_Loveridge.html#Ideas.
21. MAF 1999. Foodstuffs production in Finland: Quality strategies and goals. The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Foodstuff quality management group. Cited 15 March 2005. Updated 19 January 2005. Available on the Internet: http://www.mmm.fi/maatalous_maaseudun_kehittaminen/alkupera_nimisuoja_laatu/ strategia/Strenlo.PDF.
22. MAF 2001a. Strategy for Finnish agriculture. Final report of the steering Group. Working Group Report MAF 2001: 16. Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry. Cited 15 March 2005. Updated 19 January 2005. Available on the Internet: http://www.mmm.fi/maatalous_maaseudun_kehittaminen/ maatalous_ja_maaseutupolitiikka/maatalous-politiikka/tulevaisuus/strategy.pdf.
23. MAF 2001b. Ehdotus luonnonmukaisen elintarviketuotannon kehittämisestä. Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry. Cited 15 March 2005. Updated 19 January 2005. Available on the Internet: http://www.mmm.fi/ maatalous_maaseudun_kehittaminen/luomutuotanto/ajankohtaista/Luomustrategia.PDF.
24. MAF 2002. Strategy for the renewable natural resources in Finland. MAF Publications 8b/2001. Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry. Cited 15 March 2005. Updated 19 January 2005. Available on the Internet: http://www.mmm.fi/english/ landwater/natural_resources/Luonnonvara_Englanti.pdf.
25. Malaska, P. 2003. Tulevaisuustietoisuus ja tulevaisuuteen tunkeutuminen. In: Vapaavuori, M. & Von Bruun, S. (ed.). Miten tutkimme tulevaisuutta. Second edition. p. 9-16.
26. Meriö, H. 2000. Metsäsertifiointiin liittyvät asiantuntijapalveluiden tulevaisuuskuvat. ESF-publications, Ministry of Labour. 94 p.
27. Meristö, T. 1991. Skenaariotyöskentely yrityksen johtamisessa. Helsinki: Valtion painatuskeskus. 188 p.
28. Mohorjy, A.M. & Aburizaiza, O.S. 1997. Impact assessment of an improper effluent control system: a Delphi approach. Environmental Impact Assessment Review 17: 205-217.
29. Puolanne, E. & Wilenius M. (ed.). 2002. Elintarviketalouden reunaehdot vuoteen 2030 mennessä. ETU 2030. MMM:n julkaisuja 9/2002. 127 p.
30. Rikkonen, P. 2003. Maatalouden tulevaisuus vuoteen 2025: elintarvikeketjun asiantuntijoiden tulevaisuudenkuvia Suomen maataloudesta. MTT Working papers 32. 51 p.
31. Rikkonen, P., Aakkula, J. & Kaivo-oja, J. 2006. How can future long-term changes in Finnish agriculture and agricultural policy be faced? Defining strategic agenda on the basis of a Delphi study. European Planning Studies (in press).
32. Rotmans, J. & Van Asselt, M.B.A. 1997. From scenarios to visions. A long way to go. Lessons learned from two decades scenario development. In: Open meeting of the human dimensions of global environmental change research community. Laxenburg: Austria.
33. Rowe, G. & Wright, G. 2001. Expert opinions in forecasting: the role of the Delphi technique. In: Armstrong, J.S. (ed.). A Handbook for researchers and practitioners. Boston/Dordrecht/London: Kluwer Academic Publishers. p. 125-146.
34. Rubin, A. & Linturi, H. 2001. Transition in the making. The images of the future in education and decision-making. Futures 33: 267-305.
35. Sackman, H. 1975. Delphi critique. Expert opinion, forecasting and group process. Toronto: Lexington books. 142 p.
36. Tapio, P. 2002. Climate and traffic: prospects for Finland. Global Environmental Change 12: 53-68.
37. Tapio, P. 2003. Disaggregative Policy Delphi. Using cluster analysis as a tool for systematic scenario formation. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 70: 83-101.
38. Turoff, M. 1975. The policy Delphi. In: Linstone, H.A. & Turoff, M. (eds.). The Delphi method: techniques and applications. Cited 15 March 2005. Updated 15 October 2002. Available on the Internet: http://www.is.njit.edu/pubs/ delphibook/.
39. Van der Heijden, K. 1996. Scenarios - the art of strategic conversation. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons. 305 p.
40. Van der Heijden, K., Bradfield, R., Burt, G., Cairns, G. & Wright, G. 2002. The sixth sense. Accelerating organisational learning with scenarios. Chichester: JohnWiley & Sons. 307 p.
41. Van Notten, P.W.F., Sleegers, A.M. & Van Asselt, M.B.A. 2005. The future shocks: On discontinuity and scenario development. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 72: 175-194.
42. Wilenius, M. & Tirkkonen, J. 1997. Climate in the making. Using Delphi for Finnish climate policy. Futures 29: 845-662.
43. Yli-Viikari, A., Risku-Norja, H., Nuutinen, V., Heinonen, E., Hietala-Koivu, R., Huusela-Veistola, E., Hyvönen, T., Kantanen, J., Raussi, S., Rikkonen, P., Seppälä, A. & Vehmasto, E. 2002. Agri-environmental and rural development indicators: a proposal. Agrifood Research Reports 5. p. 11-25.