Climate in the making: Using Delphi for Finnish climate policy

Futures

Volumn 29, Issue 9, 1997, Pages 845-862

  Wilenius, Markku ^a   Tirkkonen, Juhani ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF TURKU   (Finland)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE POLICY; DELPHI TECHNIQUE; ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY;

FINLAND;

EID: 0031410447     PISSN: 00163287     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/s0016-3287(97)00061-x     Document Type: Article

References (41)

1. See Sprinz, D. and Luterbacher, U., (eds), International Relations and Global Climate Change, PIK Report No 21, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 1996. Also Young, O., International Governance. Protecting the Environment in a Stateless Society. Cornell University Press, Ithaca, 1994.
2. See Sprinz, D. and Luterbacher, U., (eds), International Relations and Global Climate Change, PIK Report No 21, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 1996. Also Young, O., International Governance. Protecting the Environment in a Stateless Society. Cornell University Press, Ithaca, 1994.
3. Hiilidioksidikomitean mietintö. Report of the Carbon Dioxide Committee. Ministry of Environment, Helsinki, 1991/21; Hiilidioksiditoimikunta II. Carbon Dioxide Committee II. Ministry of Environment, Helsinki, 1994/2; Finland's National Report under the United Nation's Framework Convention on Climate Change. Ministry of Environment, Helsinki, 1996.
4. Hiilidioksidikomitean mietintö. Report of the Carbon Dioxide Committee. Ministry of Environment, Helsinki, 1991/21; Hiilidioksiditoimikunta II. Carbon Dioxide Committee II. Ministry of Environment, Helsinki, 1994/2; Finland's National Report under the United Nation's Framework Convention on Climate Change. Ministry of Environment, Helsinki, 1996.
5. Hiilidioksidikomitean mietintö. Report of the Carbon Dioxide Committee. Ministry of Environment, Helsinki, 1991/21; Hiilidioksiditoimikunta II. Carbon Dioxide Committee II. Ministry of Environment, Helsinki, 1994/2; Finland's National Report under the United Nation's Framework Convention on Climate Change. Ministry of Environment, Helsinki, 1996.
6. Global Environmental Change - report, 1996, 8(5), 5.
7. Tirkkonen, J. and Wilenius, M., Ilmastonmuutos, politiikka ja Suomi. Raportti tutkijoiden ja päättäjien näkemyksistä ja keskinäisestä vuorovaikutuksesta. (Climate change, politics and Finland. Report on the views and interaction of researchers and decision makers). Publications of the Academy of Finland, Edita, Helsinki, 8/1995.
8. Climate Change 7995: The Science of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1996.
9. Similar projects have been carried out in the Netherlands and in the USA in the context of local climate change research programmes. See Klabbers, J., Vellinga, P., DSwart, R., van Ulden, A. and Jansson, R., Policy Options Addressing the Greenhouse Effect. National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change, Drukkerij Smeink, Amsterdam, 1994; Bernabo. J., Communication among scientists, decision makers, and society: developing policy-relevant global climate change research. In Climate Change and Research, Evaluation and Policy Implications, (Studies in Environmental Science 65A), eds R. Swerver, R. S. A. R. Rompay, M. T. J. Kok and M. M. Berk, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1995, pp. 103-118.
10. Similar projects have been carried out in the Netherlands and in the USA in the context of local climate change research programmes. See Klabbers, J., Vellinga, P., DSwart, R., van Ulden, A. and Jansson, R., Policy Options Addressing the Greenhouse Effect. National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change, Drukkerij Smeink, Amsterdam, 1994; Bernabo. J., Communication among scientists, decision makers, and society: developing policy-relevant global climate change research. In Climate Change and Research, Evaluation and Policy Implications, (Studies in Environmental Science 65A), eds R. Swerver, R. S. A. R. Rompay, M. T. J. Kok and M. M. Berk, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1995, pp. 103-118.
11. Mannermaa, M., Evolutionäärinen tulevaisuudentutkimus (Evolutionary Futures Research). Tulevaisuuden tutkimuksen seura. Acta Futura Fennica no. 2, Helsinki, VAPK, 1991, p. 127.
12. Linstone, H., and Turoff, M. (eds), The Delphi Method. Techniques and Applications. Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA, 1975.
13. Kuusi, O., Delfoi-tekniikka tulevaisuuden tekemisen välineenä (Delphi-technique as a way to make future). In Miten tutkimme tulevaisuutta (How to Do Futures Research), ed. M. Vapaavuori. Tulevaisuuden tutkimuksen seura. Acta Futura Fennica no. 5. VAPK, Helsinki, 1993, pp. 132-140.
14. Mannermaa, op cit, ref. 7, p. 132.
15. Seppälä, Y., Positivistinen ja hermeneuttinen tulevaisuuden tutkimus (positivistic and hermeneutic futures research). In Tulevaisuuden tutkimus Suomessa (Futures Research in Finland), eds P. Malaska and M. Mannermaa. Gaudeamus, Helsinki, 1985.
16. Kuusi, op cit, ref. 9, p. 133.
17. Kuusi, op cit, ref. 9, p. 134.
18. Kuusi, op cit, ref. 9, p. 138.
19. Linstone and Turoff, op cit, ref. 8, p. 4.
20. Boehrner-Christiansen, S., Global climate protection policy the limits of scientific advice, part 2, Global Environmental Change 1994, 4(3), 185-200.
21. Sundqvist, G., Vetenskapen och miljöproblemen - En expertssociologisk studie (Science and the environment: a study in the sociology of expertise). Monograph from the Department of Sociology no 46. University of Goethenburg, Sweden, 1991.
22. Andresen, S., Skodvin, T., Underdal, A. and Wettestad, J., Scientific management of the environment? science, politics and institutional design. CICERO Working papers, 1994:4, University of Oslo, 1994.
23. Klabbers, J., Climate policy: management of organized complexity through gaming. Proceedings of International Conference of International Simulation and Gaming association, 1994 (ISAGA). Sage, London.
24. Foucault, M., The Archeology of Knowledge. 1972, Róutledge, London.
25. According to Klabbers (op cit, ref. 19, p. 3), at least the following disciplines touch upon the problematics of climate change from a discursive viewpoint: meteorology, physics, chemistry, biology, economics, technology, demographics, social sciences, philosophy and ethics.
26. Andresen et al., op cit, ref. 18.
27. Andresen et al., op cit, ref. 18, page 11.
28. Väliverronen, E., Tiede ja ympäristöongelmat julkisuudessa, (Science and Environmental Problems in Public Media). University of Tampere, Department of Communication, publications A 83/1994, Tampereen yliopisto: Jäljennepalvelu, 1994, p. 114.
29. Project team consisted of Pirkko Heikinheimo (secretary of the SILMU-programme), juhani Tirkkonen (employed researcher for the project) and Markku Wilenius (project leader).
30. Graedel, T. E. and Crutzen, P. J., Atmosphere, Climate and Change. Scientific American Library, New York, 1995, pp. 113-154.
31. The UN framework agreement signed in Rio de Janeiro obligated industrial countries of the world to draw up national inventories of greenhouse gas emissions and sinks and descriptions of measures designed to mitigate climate change. These reports and the assessment drawn from them indicate that global emissions cannot be stabilised, leave alone reduced, in the near future (see Flavin, C. and Tunali, O., Climate of Hope. New Strategies for Stabilizing the World's Atmosphere. Worldwatch paper 130. Washington, D.C., 1996); for FCCC's countrywise asessment reports, see www-site www.unfccc.de).
32. See Grubb, M., Sebenius, J., Magalhaes, A., and Subak, S., Sharing the Burden. In Confronting Climate Change. Risks, Implications and Responses, ed. I. Mintzer. Stockholm Environment Institute, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1992, pp. 305-322; Subak, S., Assessing emissions: five approaches compared. In The Global Greenhouse Regime, Who Pays? Science, Economics and North-South Politics in the Climate Change Convention, eds P. Hayes and K. Smith. UN University Press, Tokyo, 1993, pp. 51-69.
33. See Grubb, M., Sebenius, J., Magalhaes, A., and Subak, S., Sharing the Burden. In Confronting Climate Change. Risks, Implications and Responses, ed. I. Mintzer. Stockholm Environment Institute, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1992, pp. 305-322; Subak, S., Assessing emissions: five approaches compared. In The Global Greenhouse Regime, Who Pays? Science, Economics and North-South Politics in the Climate Change Convention, eds P. Hayes and K. Smith. UN University Press, Tokyo, 1993, pp. 51-69.
34. IPCC/WGI, Houghton, J. T., Meira Filho, L. G., Bruce, J., Lee, H., Callander, B. A., Haites, E., Harris, N., and Maskell, K., Radiative Forcing on Climate Change and Evalutaion of the IPCC /592 Emission Scenarios. IPCC/WG1, The 1994 Report of the Scientific Assessment Working Group of IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1994.
35. Kellomäki, S., 'Metsätalous' (Forest economy). In Kestävän kehityksen edellytykset Suomessa (Conditions for Sustainable Development in Finland), eds I. Kurki-Suonio and M. Heikkilä. Tammi, Helsinki, 1994, pp. 417-482.
36. The Ministry of Trade and Industry, Committee for Energy Saving, Report 24/95. Painatuskeskus, Helsinki, 1995, pp. 18-20.
37. Life-cycle analysis seeks to assess the environmental impacts of a product during its production, use and disposal.
38. Parry, M., The sensitivity of global agriculture to environmental changes. Paper presented at SILMU Symposium of Global Change and Agriculture in the North, Helsinki, Finland, 16-17 November, 1995.
39. Klabbers et al., op cit, reference 6, page 18.
40. See Hordjik, L., Kroeze, C., Alcamo, J., Davies, T., Drewry, D. J., Ford, D., Mearns, L. and Wright, R. F., Evaluation of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU). Publications of the Academy of Finland, Helsinki, Edita, July 1996.
41. Klabbers, J., Vellinga, P., Swart, R., Van Ulden, A. and Jansson, R., Climate change and climate policy: improving science/policy interface. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 1996, 1(1), 73-93.