Extended deterrence: The U.S. credibility gap in the Middle East

Washington Quarterly

Volumn 28, Issue 3, 2005, Pages 169-186

  McInnis, Kathleen J ^a  

^a CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 27944463650     PISSN: 0163660X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1162/0163660054026489     Document Type: Article

References (42)

1. "A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility," 2004, p. 40, para. 111, http://www.un.org/secureworld/report2.pdf (report of the Secretary-General's High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change).
2. For leaked portions of the Nuclear Posture Review, see http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/policy/dod/npr.htm.
3. John R. Bolton, testimony before the House International Relations Subcommittee on the Middle East and Central Asia, June 24, 2004.
4. "Iran Special Collection: Iran Nuclear-Related Sites," http://cns.miis.edu/research/iran/nucsites.htm#nat.
5. Council on Foreign Relations Independent Task Force, "Iran: Time for a New Approach," July 2004, pp. 17-18;
6. David Albright and Corey Hinderstein, "The Centrifuge Connection," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 60, no. 2 (March /April 2004): 61-66, http://www.thebulletin.org/article.php?art_ofn=ma04albright.
7. Lowell E. Jacoby, "Current and Projected National Security Threats to the United States," statement before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, February 24, 2004.
8. Anthony Cordesman, "Iran's Developing Military Capabilities: Executive Summary" (working paper, December 8, 2004), p. 3.
9. "The Military Balance, 2003-2004" in Iran, ed. Christopher Langton (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2003).
10. Joseph Cirincione, Miriam Rajkumar, and Jon Wolfsthal, "The Three Hard Cases: Iran," in Deadly Arsenals: Tracking Weapons of Mass Destruction (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2002), pp. 267-268.
11. Ibid., p. 267.
12. Peter Flory, testimony before the House International Relations Subcommittee on the Middle East and Central Asia, June 24, 2004.
13. Cordesman, "Iran's Developing Military Capabilities," p. 6.
14. "Yuschenko Confirms That Ukraine Sold Cruise Missiles to Iran, China," Interfax-Ukraine Business Report, April 2, 2005.
15. Jon Alterman, "The United States and Egypt: Building the Partnership," Middle East Note (August 2003): 2.
16. Robert Einhorn, "Egypt," in The Nuclear Tipping Point, eds. Mitchell Reiss, Robert Einhorn, and Kurt Campbell (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Press, 2004), p. 61.
17. Roula Khalaf, "Iranian Nuclear Ambitions Worry Gulf Arab States," Financial Times, December 18, 2004, p. 7.
18. Thomas Lippman, "Saudi Arabia: The Calculations of Uncertainty," in The Nuclear Tipping Point, eds. Mitchell Reiss, Robert Einhorn, and Kurt Campbell (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Press, 2004), p. 129.
19. For more on the case for a Saudi nuclear deterrent, see Richard L. Russell, "A Saudi Nuclear Option?" Survival 43, no. 2 (Summer 2001): 69-79.
20. Anthony Cordesman, The Military Balance in the Middle East (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 2004), p. 321.
21. Anthony Cordesman, "Saudi Arabia Enters the 21st Century: The Military and International Security Dimension," October 2002, p. 7, http://www.csis.org/burke/saudi21/SaudiMilBook01.pdf (draft).
22. Anthony Cordesman, Saudi Arabia: Guarding the Desert Kingdom (Boulder, Colo.: Westview, 1997), p. 48.
23. Ewen MacAskill and Ian Traynor, "Saudis Consider Nuclear Bomb," Guardian, September 18, 2003.
24. Akaki Dvali, "Will Saudi Arabia Acquire Nuclear Weapons?" Nuclear Threat Initiative Issue Brief, March 2004, http://www.nti.org/e_research/e3_40a.html.
25. George Jahn, "Saudi Effort to Sign Loophole Agreement Leaves UN Nuclear Monitors Nervous," Associated Press, April 20, 2005.
26. Bill Powell, "The Man Who Sold the Bomb," Time, February 14, 2005, p. 22.
27. See "Pakistan Denies New Allegations Over Disgraced Nuclear Scientist," Associated Press, February 7, 2005.
28. Einhorn, "Egypt" (citing a March 15, 2003, conversation), p. 65.
29. Ibid., p. 63.
30. "Report Views Recent Egypt-Iran Developments in Context of Cairo-Tehran Ties," Elaph (London), December 9, 2004 (translated from Arabic by BBC Monitoring Middle East, December 13, 2004).
31. "Iran Denies Reported Handover of Wanted Islamist to Egypt," Agence France Presse, December 6, 2004.
32. "Egyptian-Iranian Relations Have Once Again Gone Back to Square One," Al-Sharq al-Awsat (London), December 10, 2004 (translated from Arabic by BBC Monitoring International Reports, December 13, 2004).
33. Ibid.
34. George Sam'an, "Egypt's Mubarak on Current Issues," Al Hayah (London), October 5, 1998, as cited in Yotam Feldner, "Egypt Rethinks Its Nuclear Program: The Egyptian Nuclear Lobby (2)," MEMRI Inquiry and Analysis, January 22, 2003, http://www.memri.de/uebersetzungen_analysen/laender/aegypten/ egypt_nuclear_option_II_22_01_03.pdf. (here-inafter Sam'an article).
35. "Egypt Country Profile: Past Nuclear Policies" January 10, 2003, http://projects.sipri.se/nuclear/cnsc3egy.htm.
36. Yana Feldman, Mary Beth Nikitin, and Jack Boureston, "Egyptian Nuclear Non-Disclosures Cause Concern," Jane's Intelligence Review, March 17, 2005.
37. Anthony Cordesman, The Military Balance in the Middle East (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 2004), p. 468.
38. Sam'an article.
39. "Egypt Pursuing Plans to Build a Nuclear Plant at El-Dabaa," Nucleonics Week, January 2, 1997, p. 1.
40. Al-Usbu' (Egypt), May 27, 2002, as cited in Yotam Feldner, "Egypt Rethinks Its Nuclear Program: The Egyptian Nuclear Lobby (2)," MEMRI Inquiry and Analysis, January 22, 2003, http://www.memri.de/uebersetzungen_analysen/laender/aegypten/ egypt_nuclear_option_II_22_01_03.pdf
41. Saudi Publications on Hate Ideology Invade American Mosques (Washington, D.C.: Freedom House, 2005), pp. 11-12.
42. Mohammad Abdel Salam, "The Arab Position on Iranian Nuclear Activities," Egyptian Commentary, no. 21, September 9, 2004, http://www.ahram.org.eg/acpss/eng/ahram/2004/7/5/egyp25.htm.