Can error source terms in forecasting models be represented as Gaussian Markov noises?

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Volumn 131, Issue 609, 2005, Pages 2151-2170

  Nicolis, C ^a  

^a ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE OF BELGIUM   (Belgium)

Author keywords

Chaotic dynamics; Model error; Unresolved scales

Indexed keywords

BOUNDARY CONDITIONS; CHAOS THEORY; MARKOV PROCESSES; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; MATRIX ALGEBRA; PARTIAL DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS; PROBABILITY; WEATHER FORECASTING;

CHAOTIC DYNAMICS; JACOBIAN AND HESSIAN MATRICES; MODEL ERROR; UNRESOLVED SCALES;

CLIMATOLOGY;

ERROR ANALYSIS;

EID: 27644549907     PISSN: 00359009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1256/qj.04.98     Document Type: Article

References (16)

1. Buizza, R., Miller, M. J. and Palmer, T. N. 1999 Stochastic simulation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 125, 2887-2908
2. Dee, R. P. and da Silva, A. M. 1998 Data assimilation in the presence of forecast bias. Q. J R. Meteorol. Soc., 124, 269-295
3. Feller, W. 1967 An introduction to probability theory and its applications. Volume 1. Wiley, New York, USA
4. Frankignoul, C. and Hasselmann, K. 1977 Stochastic climate models. II: Application to sea-surface temperature anomalies and thermocline circulation. Tellus, 29, 289-305
5. Gardiner, C. W. 1983 Handbook of stochastic methods. Springer, New Yord, USA
6. Honerkamp, J. 1993 Stochastic dynamical systems: Concepts, numerical methods, data analysis. Wiley-VCH, New York, USA
7. Lorenz, E. N. 1963 Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 130-141
8. Lorenz, E. N. 1996 'Predictability - A problem partly solved'. Pp. 1-18 in Proceedings of the 1995 ECMWF seminar on predictability. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading, UK
9. Lorenz, E. N. and Emanuel, K. A. 1998 Optimal sites for supplementary weather observations: Simulation with a small model. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 339-414
10. Nicolis, C. 2003 Dynamics of model error: Some generic features. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 2208-2218
11. Nicolis, C. 2004 Dynamics of model error: The role of unresolved scales revisited. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 1740-1753
12. Palmer, T. N. 2001 A nonlinear dynamic perspective on model error. A proposal for non-local stochastic-dynamic parametrization in weather and climate prediction models. Q.J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 127, 279-304
13. Saltzman, B. 1962 Finite amplitude free convection as an initial value problem: I. J. Atmos. Sci., 19, 329-341
14. Tribbia, J. J. and Baumhefher, D. P. 1988 The reliability of improvements in deterministic short-range forecast in the presence of initial state and modeling deficiencies. Mon. Weather Rev., 116, 2276-2288
15. Vannitsem, S. and Toth, Z. Short-term dynamics of model errors. J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 2594-2604
16. Zupanski, D. 1997 A general weak constraint applicable to operational 4DVAR data assimilation systems. Mon. Weather Rev., 125, 2274-2291