Continuous and discrete extreme climatic events affecting the dynamics of a high-arctic reindeer population

Oecologia

Volumn 145, Issue 4, 2005, Pages 556-563

  Chan, Kung Sik ^a   Mysterud, Atle ^b   Øritsland, Nils Are ^c   Severinsen, Torbjørn ^b   Stenseth, Nils Chr ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF IOWA   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF OSLO   (Norway)

^c Outhere AS   (Norway)

Author keywords

Arctic oscillation; Continuous vs. discrete environmental forcing; Non linearity; Time series analysis; Ungulates

Indexed keywords

ARCTIC OSCILLATION; LATITUDINAL GRADIENT; MODELING; POPULATION DYNAMICS; TEMPORAL VARIATION; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS; UNGULATE;

ANIMAL; ARTICLE; COLD CLIMATE; COMPUTER SIMULATION; NORWAY; POPULATION DENSITY; REINDEER; THEORETICAL MODEL; WEATHER;

ANIMALS; COLD CLIMATE; COMPUTER SIMULATION; MODELS, THEORETICAL; NORWAY; POPULATION DENSITY; REINDEER; WEATHER;

ARCTIC; ARCTIC AND ANTARCTIC; SVALBARD; SVALBARD AND JAN MAYEN; WORLD;

RANGIFER TARANDUS; UNGULATA;

EID: 26444585140     PISSN: 00298549     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00442-005-0157-6     Document Type: Article

References (36)

1. Aanes R, Sæther B-E, Øritsland NA (2000) Fluctuations of an introduced population of Svalbard reindeer: the effects of density dependence and climatic variation. Ecography 23:437-443
2. Aanes R, Sæther B-E, Smith FM, Cooper EJ, Wookey PA, Øritsland NA (2002) The Arctic Oscillation predicts effect of climate change in two trophic levels in a high-arctic ecosystem. Ecol Lett 5:445-453
3. Aanes R, Sæther B-E, Smith FM, Cooper EJ, Wookey PA, Øritsland NA (2004) The Arctic Oscillation predicts effect of climate change in two trophic levels in a high-arctic ecosystem (Erratum). Ecol Lett 7:1242
4. Baldwin MP, Stephenson DB, Thompson DWJ, Dunkerton TJ, Charlton AJ, O'Neill A (2003) Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecasts. Science 301:636-640
5. Chan K-S, Kristoffersen A, Stenseth NC (2003a) Bürmann expansion and test for additivity. Biometrika 90:209-222
6. Chan K-S, Stenseth NC, Lekve K, Gjøsæter J (2003b) Modeling pulse disturbance impact on cod population dynamics: the 1988 ALGAL bloom of skagerrak, Norway. Ecol Monogr 73:151-171
7. Ciannelli L, Chan KS, Bailey KM, Stenseth NC (2004) Nonadditive effects of the environment on the survival of a large marine fish population. Ecology 85:3418-3427
8. Clark CS, Grimm EC, Donovan JJ, Fritz SC, Engstrom DR, Almendinger JE (2003) Drought cycles and landscape responses to past aridity on prairies of the northern Great Plains, USA. Ecology 83:595-601
9. Clutton-Brock TH, Coulson TN, Milner-Gulland EJ, Thomson D, Armstrong HM (2002) Sex differences in emigration and mortality affects optimal management of deer populations. Nature 415:633-637
10. Coulson T, Catchpole EA, Albon SD, Morgan BJT, Pemberton JM, Clutton-Brock TH, Crawley MJ, Grenfell BT (2001) Age, sex, density, winter weather, and population crashes in Soay sheep. Science 292:1528-1531
11. Danell K, Hofgaard A, Callaghan TV, Ball JP (1999) Scenarios for animal responses to global change in Europe's cold regions: an introduction. Ecol Bull 47:8-15
12. Diaz-Delgado R, Lloret F, Pons X, Terradas J (2003) Satellite evidence of decreasing resilience in Mediterranean plant communities after recurrent wildfires. Ecology 83:2293-2303
13. Gaillard J-M, Festa-Bianchet M, Yoccoz NG (1998) Population dynamics of large herbivores: variable recruitment with constant adult survival. Trends Ecol Evol 13:58-63
14. Holand Ø (2003) Reindrift: samisk næring i brytning mellom tradisjon og produksjon. GAN forlag, Oslo
15. Hurrell JW, Kushnir Y, Ottersen G, Visbeck M (2003) The North Atlantic Oscillation. Climatic significance and environmental impact. American Geophysical Union, Washington DC
16. IPCC (2001) Climate Change 2001. Third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
17. Jacobson AR, Provenzale A, von Hardenberg A, Bassano B, Festa-Bianchet M (2004) Climate forcing and density dependence in a mountain ungulate population. Ecology 85:1598-1610
18. Mysterud A, Stenseth NC, Yoccoz NG, Langvatn R, Steinheim G (2001) Nonlinear effects of large-scale climatic variability on wild and domestic herbivores. Nature 410:1096-1099
19. Mysterud A, Stenseth NC, Yoccoz NG, Ottersen G, Langvatn R (2003) The response of the terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. In: Hurrell JW, Kushnir Y, Ottersen G, Visbeck M (eds) The North Atlantic oscillation. American Geophysical Union, Washington, pp 235-262
20. Peña D, Tiao GC, Tsay RS (2001) A course in time series analysis. Wiley, New York
21. Ramirez JR, Crano WD (2003) Deterrence and incapacitation: an interrupted time-series analysis of California's three-strikes law. J Appl Soc Psychol 33:110-144
22. Reed DH, O'Grady JJ, Ballou JD, Frankham R (2003) The frequency and severity of catastrophic die-offs in vertebrates. Animal Conser 6:109-114
23. Royama T (1992) Analytical population dynamics. Chapman and Hall, London
24. Seastedt TR, Knapp AK (1993) Consequences of nonequilibrium resource availability across multiple time scales: the transient maxima hypothesis. Am Nat 141:621-633
25. Shabbar A, Bonsal B (2003) An assessment of changes in winter cold and warm spells over Canada. Natural Hazards 29:173-188
26. Solberg EJ, Jordhøy P, Strand O, Aanes R, Loison A, Sæther B-E, Linnell JDC (2001) Effects of density-dependence and climate on the dynamics of a Svalbard reindeer population. Ecography 24:441-451
27. Stenseth NC, Mysterud A (2002) Climate, changing phenology, and other life history traits: non-linearity and match-mismatch to the environment. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 99:13379-13381
28. Stenseth NC, Mysterud A, Ottersen G, Hurrell JW, Chan K-S, Lima M (2002) Ecological effects of climate fluctuations. Science 297:1292-1296
29. Stenseth NC, Ottersen G, Hurrell JW, Mysterud A, Lima M, Chan K-S, Yoccoz NG, Ådlandsvik B (2003) Studying climate effects on ecology through the use of climate indices: the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation and beyond. Proc R Soc Lond Ser B 270:2087-2096
30. Stenseth NC, Chan K-S, Tavecchia G, Coulson T, Mysterud A, Clutton-Brock T, Grenfell BT (2004) Modelling non-additive and nonlinear signals from climatic noise in ecological time series: Soay sheep as an example. Proc R Soc Lond Ser B 271:1985-1993
31. Thompson DWJ, Wallace JM (1998) The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophys Res Lett 25:1297-1300
32. Thompson DWJ, Wallace JM (2000) Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part I: Month- to-month variability. J Clim 13:1000-1016
33. Thompson DWJ, Wallace JM, Hegerl GC (2000) Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part II: Trends. J Clim 13:1018-1036
34. Thomson AM, Brown RA, Rosenberg NJ, Izaurralde RC, Legler DM, Srinivasan R (2003) Simulated impacts of El Nino/Southern Oscillation on United States water resources. J Am Water Resour Assoc 39:137-148
35. Tsay RS (1988) Outliers, level shifts, and variance changes in time series. J Forecasting 7:1-20
36. Wahlström LK, Liberg O (1995) Patterns of dispersal and seasonal migration in roe deer (Capreolus capreolus). J Zool 235:455-467