Smog alert: The challenges of battling ozone pollution

Environment

Volumn 47, Issue 8, 2005, Pages 28-41

  Bernstein, Mark ^a   Whitman, David ^b  

^a RAND CORPORATION   (United States)

^b RAND   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

NITROGEN OXIDE; OZONE; VOLATILE ORGANIC COMPOUND;

AIR POLLUTION; AIR QUALITY; ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT; ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT; ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION; FOREST; REVIEW; SMOG; UNITED STATES;

EID: 26244460355     PISSN: 00139157     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3200/ENVT.47.8.28-41     Document Type: Review

References (64)

1. South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD), The Southland's War on Smog (Diamond Bar, CA, 1997), 21.
2. The photograph and text of Nathan Louis Gordon's death certificate is not included in the online edition of the SCAQMD monograph. The Los Angeles Coroner's office took issue with Dr. Veger's listing of smog as a contributing cause of death. More than 40 years would pass before another doctor listed air pollution as a contributing cause of death on a death certificate. In September 2000, the medical coroner in Coeur d'Alene, Idaho, cited paniculate pollution from agricultural field burning as a contributing cause of death in a fatal asthma attack. See D. Whitman, "Fields of Fire," U.S. News & World Report, 3 September 2001: 10-14.
3. The cause of deaths and subsequent illnesses in the Donora case have been the source of some controversy. See C. Bryson, "The Donora Fluoride Fog: A Secret History of America's Worst Air Pollution Disaster," Earth Island Journal, Fall 1998, http://www.earthisland .org/eijournal/fall98/ fe_fall98donora.html;
4. and D. Davis, When Smoke Ran Like Water (New York: Basic Books, 2002).
5. A. J. Haagen-Smit, "Chemistry and Physiology of Los Angeles Smog," Industrial Engineering Chemistry 44 (1952): 1342-46.
6. M. L. Bell et al., "Ozone and Short-term Mortality in 95 US Urban Communities, 1987-2000," Journal of the American Medical Association 292, no. 19 (2004): 2372-78;
7. and B. J. Hubbell et al., "Health-Related Benefits of Attaining the 8-Hr Ozone Standard," Environmental Health Perspectives 113, no. 1 (2005): 73-82.
8. P. O'Driscoll, "Checking Ozone Levels Becoming Routine for Many," USA Today, 20 August 2001.
9. Smog is primarily made up of ground-level ozone but includes gases and paniculate matter as well.
10. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), The Ozone Report: Measuring Progress Through 2003, EPA 454/K-04-001 (Washington, DC, 2004), 16, http://www .epa.gov/air/airtrends/pdfs/2003ozonereport.pdf.
11. EPA, Latest Findings on National Air Quality: 2002 Status and Trends, EPA 454/K-03-001 (Washington, DC: 2003), 3, 8, http://www.epa.gov/airtrends/ 2002_airtrends_final.pdf.
12. Ibid.
13. EPA, note 6 above.
14. EPA, note 6 above.
15. D. W. Purves et al., "Human-Induced Changes in U.S. Biogenic Volatile Organic Compound Emissions: Evidence from Long-Term Forest Inventory Data," Global Change Biology 10 (2004): 1737-55.
16. EPA, Final Regulatory Impact Analysis: Control of Emissions from Nonroad Diesel Engines, EPA420-R-04-007 (Washington, DC, 2004), 26-28, http://www.epa .gov/nonroad-diesel/2004fr.htm#ria.
17. Energy Information Administration, Country Analysis Briefs (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Energy), http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs;
18. and "Cars in China Dream Machines," The Economist, 4 June 2005, 25
19. Bell et al., note 4 above.
20. EPA, note 7 above.
21. EPA, note 7 above, page 17.
22. X) and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions over time, see the tables in EPA, "Air Emissions Trends-Continued Progress Through 2003," http://www. epa.gov/airtrends/ econ-emissions.html.
23. Hubbell et al., note 4 above.
24. U.S. EPA National Emissions Inventory Database, http://www.epa.gov/air/ data/neidb.html
25. X.
26. EPA, note 13 above.
27. EPA, note 13 above.
28. th Edition (Oak Ridge, TN: Center for Transportation Analysis, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2004);
29. EPA, Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Assessments and Standards Division, Median Life, Annual Activity, and Load Factor Values for Nonroad Engine Emissions, Modeling Report No. NR-005c (Washington, DC, 2004).
30. California Environmental Protection Agency, Air Resources Board, California's 2001 Emission Inventory: A Review and Look to the Future (Sacramento CA, 2001).
31. A. Kaplun, "Air Pollution: EPA Diesel Program Falling Short of Emissions Targets," Greenwire, 26 July 2005.
32. E. Lau and T. Bizjak, "Air Board Mandates Retrofits of Diesels," The Sacramento Bee, 10 December 2004.
33. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Fuel Use for Off-Road Recreation: A Reassessment of the Fuel Use Model, ORNL/TM-1999/100 (Oak Ridge, TN, 1999).
34. EPA, note 13 above.
35. Ronald Reagan, quoted in Purves et al., note 12 above.
36. R. A. Rasmussen and F. W. Went, "Volatile Organic Material of Plant Origin in the Atmosphere," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 53, no. 1 (1965): 215-20.
37. A recent analysis finds that biogenic VOC emissions rose substantially in the Southeast from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s. See Purves et al., note 12 above. Purves also summarizes recent studies on biogenic VOC emissions at page 1738.
38. From 1987 to 1997, forest cover in the United States grew nearly 10 million acres, from 736.4 million acres in 1987 to 747 million acres a decade later. For statistics on reforestation by region, see R. J. Alig et al., Land Use Changes Involving Forestry in the United States: 1952 to 1997, with Projections to 2050, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, General Technical Report PNW-GTR-587 (Washington DC, 2003), 18.
39. For media accounts of reforestation see D. Whitman, "From Stumps, Lush Forests," U.S. News & World Report special edition,
40. "The Future of Earth," Spring 2004, 77-78;
41. and R. S. Boyd, "U.S. Forests are on a Rebound, but Can It Last?" Seattle Times, 13 February 2005. Although forest acreage has increased since the 1920s, much of this forest land is second growth, less diverse, and at risk due to forest health or wildfire. (Personal communication with Gerry Gray, vice president for policy, american Forests, 10 August 2005.)
42. Purves et al., note 12 above.
43. Purves et al., note 12 above.
44. For figures on VOC emissions see the tables in EPA, note 7 above. In 2003, solvent utilization emitted 4.56 million tons of VOCs; highway vehicles emitted 4.42 million tons of VOCs. The regulatory efforts of the Ozone Transport Commission (OTC) provide one illustration of the greater difficulty of reducing VOCs from solvents than from motor vehicles. OTC, a compact of Northeastern states, has promulgated a model VOC reductions rule that incorporates tougher state emissions limits than EPA rules. A number of eastern states, including New York, have adopted the tougher OTC rules in their state implementation plans (SIPs). However, the National Paint and Coating Association has argued that products formulated to meet the tightened VOC limits require more applications and increased use in warmer months. EPA's approval of New York's SIP acknowledged that "the agency is concerned that if the rule limits make it impossible for manufacturers to produce coatings that are desirable to consumers, there is a possibility that users may misuse the products by adding additional solvent, thereby circumventing the rule's intended VOC emissions reductions." In February 2005, the paint manufacturer Sherwin-Williams Co. challenged EPA's approval of New York's VOC rules in federal court. See B. German, "Paint Industry Lawsuits Target EPA Ozone Rules," Greenwire, 17 February 2005.
45. "Special Report on Valley Air Quality," The Fresno Bee, 15 December 2002, http://www .valleyairquality.com;
46. and D. Crow, "Air Pollution Control Officer's Determination of VOC Emissions Factors for Dairies," San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District (Fresno, CA, 2005), http://www .valleyair.org/busind/pto/dpag/ APCO%20Determination %20of%20EF_August%201_.pdf.
47. California Air Resources Board (CARB), Weekend Effect Workgroup, ARB Report on the Ozone Weekend Effect in California: Executive Summary (Sacramento, CA, 2003), 1, http://www.arb.ca.gov/aqd/weekendeffect/weekendeffect.htm.
48. 3 concentrations decreased at only 125 monitors. Once the new 8-hour maximums were tracked, this was true at just 62 monitors. In general, the weekend effect was evident in large cities in the coastal areas of California, the Midwest, and the Northeast Corridor. By contrast, most Southeast sites had similar or lower O3 levels on weekends.
49. For data on Philadelphia, see B. K. Pun et al., "Day-of-Week Behavior of Atmospheric Ozone in Three U.S. Cities," Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association 53, no. 7 (2003): 789-801.
50. Both theories are discussed in Berkeley Lab, "Understanding the Weekend Effect," press release, 14 July 2004, http://www.lbI.gov/Science- Articles/Archive/sb/July-2004/4_weekend.html.
51. C. L. Blanchard and S. J. Tanenbaum, "Differences between Weekday and Weekend Air Pollution Levels in Southern California," Journal of Air and Waste Management Association 53, no. 7 (2003): 816-28;
52. and E. M. Fujita et al., "Evolution of the Magnitude and Spatial Extent of the Weekend Ozone Effect in California's South Coast Air Basin, 1981-2000," Journal of Air and Waste Management Association 53, no. 7 (2003): 802-15.
53. For CARB's position, see note 37 above at pages 8-9.
54. 3 in VOC-limited areas should be avoided or, at a minimum, evaluated carefully in photochemical models" (pages 786-87).
55. D. J. Jacob et al., Effect of Rising Asian Emissions on Surface Ozone in the United States," Geophysical Research Letters 26, no. 6: 711-14.
56. Ibid.
57. G. R. Carmichael, "The Impacts of Emissions from Asia on Local/Regional/Global Air Quality," Chairman's Air Pollution Seminar Series, 18 January 2001, http://www.arb.ca.gov/research/seminars/carmichael/ carmichael.htm.
58. National Research Council, Global Air Quality: An Imperative for Long-Term Observational Strategies, (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 2001).
59. See Jacob et al., note 43 above.
60. There is an emerging set of cost-effective retrofit technologies for small motors that include small catalytic converters and magnetic-based emission reduction devices.
61. K. Knowlton et al., "Assessing Ozone-Related Health Impacts under a Changing Climate," Environmental Health Perspectives 112, no. 15 (2004): 1557-63.
62. Also see the correspondence between Knowlton et al. and critics J. Schwartz, P. Michaels, and R. Davis, "Ozone: Unrealistic Scenarios," Environmental Health Perspectives 113, no. 2 (2005): A86-A87.
63. Modeling of climate change by Loretta Mickley and her colleagues in the Division of Engineering and Applied Science at Harvard University suggests that by 2050, the frequency of cold fronts bringing cool, clear weather out of Canada to the United States during summer months will decline about 20 percent by 2050. If Mickley's projections are correct, global warming could worsen ozone pollution in the Northeast and Midwest. Her modeling also suggests that ozone-alert days in the Northeast and Midwest will occur 66 percent more frequently in 2050 than in 2000, and the severity and duration of pollution episodes will increase even with constant emissions. See L. J. Mickley, "The Pollution-Climate Connection," PowerPoint presentation to the American Association for the Advancement of Science conference in Washington, DC, 19 February 2005, available at http://www.people.fas.harvard .edu/~mickley/mickley_aaas_v2.ppt.
64. For related findings on the impact of climate change on carbon monoxide emissions and ozone concentrations, see L. J. Mickley, D. J. Jacob, B. D Field, and D. Rind, "Effects of Future Climate Change on Regional Air Pollution Episodes in the United States," Geophysical Research Letters 31 (2004): L24103, doi:10.1029/2004GL021216, http://www.people .fas.harvard.edu/ ~mickley_2004b.pdf.