Probabilistic prediction of tropical cyclones. Part I: Position

Monthly Weather Review

Volumn 133, Issue 7, 2005, Pages 1840-1852

  Weber, Harry C ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MUNICH   (Germany)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

MATHEMATICAL MODELS; PROBABILITY; STATISTICAL METHODS; STORMS; TROPICS;

PROBABILISTIC PREDICTION; PROBABILISTIC STORM POSITION FORECASTS; TROPICAL CYCLONES;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

TROPICAL CYCLONE; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 24144489086     PISSN: 00270644     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/MWR2951.1     Document Type: Article

References (32)

1. Aberson, S. D., M. A. Bender, and R. E. Tuleya, 1998: Ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone tracks. Preprints, 12th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Phoenix, AZ, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 290-292.
2. Bender, M. A., R. J. Ross, R. E. Tuleya, and Y. Kurihara, 1993: Improvements in tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts using the GFDL initialization scheme. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 2046-2061.
3. Carr, L. E., III, R. L. Elsberry, and J. E. Peak, 2001: Beta test of the systematic approach expert system prototype as a tropical cyclone track forecasting aid. Wea. Forecasting, 16, 355-368.
4. Davidson, N. E., and H. C. Weber, 2000: The BMRC high-resolution tropical cyclone prediction system: TC-LAPS. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 1245-1265.
5. Goerss, J. S., 2000: Tropical cyclone track forecasts using an ensemble of dynamical models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 1187-1193.
6. Goerss, J. S., and R. A. Jeffries, 1994: Assimilation of synthetic tropical cyclone observations into the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System. Wea. Forecasting, 9, 557-576.
7. Goerss, J. S., C. R. Sampson, and J. M. Gross, 2004: A history of western North Pacific tropical cyclone track forecast skill. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 633-638.
8. Heming, J. T., and A. M. Radford, 1998: The performance of the United Kingdom Meteorological Office global model in predicting the tracks of Atlantic tropical cyclones in 1995. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 1323-1331.
9. Hodur, R. M., 1997: The Naval Research Laboratory's Coupled Ocean/ Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS). Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 1414-1430.
10. Hogan, T. F., and T. E. Rosmond, 1991: The description of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System's spectral forecast model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 1786-1815.
11. Knaff, J. A., M. DeMaria, C. R. Sampson, and J. M. Gross, 2003: Statistical, 5-day tropical cyclone intensity forecasts derived from climatology and persistence. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 80-92.
12. Krishnamurti, T. N., R. Correa-Torres, G. Rohaly, and D. Oosterhof, 1997: Physical initialization and hurricane ensemble forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 12, 503-514.
13. Krishnamurti, T. N., C. M. Kishtawal, Z. Zhang, T. LaRow, D. Bachiochi, E. Williford, S. Gadgil, and S. Surendran, 2000: Multimodel ensemble forecasts for weather and seasonal climate. J. Climate, 13, 4196-4216.
14. Kurihara, Y., M. A. Bender, and R. J. Ross, 1993: An initialization scheme for hurricane models by vortex specification. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 2030-2045.
15. Kurihara, Y., M. A. Bender, R. E. Tuleya, and R. J. Ross, 1995: Improvements in the GFDL hurricane prediction system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 2791-2801.
16. Kurihara, Y., R. E. Tuleya, and M. A. Bender, 1998: The GFDL hurricane prediction system and its performance in the 1995 hurricane season. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 1306-1322.
17. Leith, C. E., 1974: Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 102, 409-418.
18. Lord, S.J., 1993: Recent developments in tropical cyclon track forecasting with the NMC global analysis and forecast system. Preprints, 20th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, San Antonio, TX, Amer.Meteor. Soc., 290-291.
19. Marks, D. G., 1992: The beta and advection model for hurricane track forecasting. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NMC 70, National Meteorological Center, Camp Springs, MD, 89 pp.
20. Molteni, F., R. Buizza, T. N. Palmer, and T. Petroliagis, 1996: The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and validation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 73-119.
21. Mullen, S. L., and D. P. Baumhefner, 1994: Monte Carlo simulations of explosive cyclogenesis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 1548-1567.
22. Neumann, C. J., 1972: An alternate to the HURRAN tropical cyclone forecasting system. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS SR-62, 22 pp.
23. Ocean Data Systems, Inc., 1978: Final Report: Analog tropical forecasting program (TYAN78). Monterey, CA, 42 pp.
24. Press, W. H., B. P. Flannery, S. A. Teukolsky, and W. T. Vetterling, 1986: Numerical Recipes. 1st ed. Cambridge University Press, 818 pp.
25. Puri, K., J. Barkmeijer, and T. N. Palmer, 2001: Ensemble prediction of tropical cyclones using targeted diabatic singular vectors. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127, 709-731.
26. Rennick, M. A., 1999: Performance of the navy's tropical cyclone prediction model in the western North Pacific basin during 1996. Wea. Forecasting, 14, 3-14.
27. Sampson, C. R., and A. J. Schrader, 2000: The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (Version 3.2). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 1231-1240.
28. Surgi, N., H.-L. Pan, and S. J. Lord, 1998: Improvement of the NCEP global model over the Tropics: An evaluation of model performance during the 1995 hurricane season. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 1287-1305.
29. Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay, 1997: Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 3297-3319.
30. Weber, H. C., 2003: Hurricane track prediction using a statistical ensemble of numerical models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 749-770.
31. Weber, H. C., 2005: Probabilistic prediction of tropical cyclones. Part II: Intensity. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1853-1864.
32. Zhang, Z., and T. N. Krishnamurti, 1999: A perturbation method for hurricane ensemble predictions. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 447-469.