Inland and coastal flooding: Developments in prediction and prevention

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences

Volumn 363, Issue 1831, 2005, Pages 1475-1491

  Hunt, J G R ^a,b  

^a UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

^b DELFT UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

Climate change; Flood prediction; Natural disasters; Weather forecasting

Indexed keywords

EID: 23344454939     PISSN: 1364503X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2005.1580     Document Type: Review

References (65)

1. ACOPS 2003 Conference on sustainable development in coastal zones of sub-Saharan Africa. Report, Natural History Museum, Royal Society (www.acops.org).
2. Argoss 2003 www.argoss.nl.
3. Bak, P. 1996 How nature works, p. 212. New York: Springer.
4. Baldwin, M. P. & Dunderton, T. J. 2001 Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes. Science 294, 581-584.
5. Battjes, J. A. & Gerritsen, H. 2002 Coastal modelling for flood defence. In Flood risk in a changing climate (ed. D. Cox, J. Hunt, P. Mason, H. Wheater & P. Wolf) Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 360.
6. Baxter 2005 The east coast Big Flood, 31 January-1 February 1953: a summary of the human disaster. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 363. (doi:10.1098/rsta. 2005.1569.)
7. Capon, R. A. 2003 Wind speed in the Dover Straits with the Met office new dynamics model. Meteorol. Appl. 10, 229-237.
8. Chan, J. C. L. & Liang, X. 2003 Convective asymmetries associated with tropical cyclone landfall. Part I. F-plane simulations. J. Atmos. Sci. 60, 1560-1576.
9. Collier, C. G. 2002 Developments in radar and remote-sensing methods for measuring and forecasting rainfall. In Flood risk in a changing climate (ed. D. Cox, J. Hunt, P. Mason, H. Wheater & P. Wolf) Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 360.
10. Colman, A. W. 1997 Prediction of summer central England temperature from preceding winter North Atlantic sea surface temperature. Int. J. Climatol. 17, 1285-1300.
11. Cox, D. R., Isham, V. S. & Northrop, P. J. 2002 Floods: some probabilistic and statistical approaches. In Flood risk in a changing climate (ed. D. Cox, J. Hunt, P. Mason, H. Wheater & P. Wolf) Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 360.
12. ECMWF 2003 The ECMWF seasonal forecasting system. ECMWF Newslett. 98, 17-25.
13. ECMWF 2003 Did the ECMWF seasonal forecast model outperform a statistical model over the last 15 years? ECMWF Newslett. 98, 26-29.
14. Embrechts, P., Kluppelberg, C. & Mikosch, T. 1997 Modelling extremal events for insurance and finance Applications of mathematics, vol. 33. Berlin: Springer.
15. Evans, E. P., Thorne, C. R., Saul, A., Ashley, R., Sayers, P. N., Watkinson, A., Penning-Rowsell, E. C. & Hall, J. W. 2003 An analysis of future risks of flooding and coastal erosion for the UK between 2030-2100. UK Office of Science and Technology Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project, July.
16. Falconer, R. A., Lin, B., Harries, E. L. & Wilson, C. A. M. E. 2002 Hydroinformatics 2002 Proceedings of the Fifth International Conference on Hydroinformatics. London: IWA Publishing House.
17. 2. Glob. Atmos. Ocean Syst. 6, 193-208.
18. Fleming, G. 2002 How can we learn to live with rivers? Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 360, 1527-1530.
19. Gill, A. E. 1980 Atmosphere - ocean dynamics. Academic Press.
20. Hall, C. D., Hunt, J. C. R., Radford, A. M., Carruthers, D. J. & Weng, W. S. 1992 Forecasting tropical cyclones and near surface wind conditions. ICSU/WMO Proceedings of the International Symposium on Tropical Cyclone Disasters, pp. 232-257. Beijing: Peking University Press.
21. Hasselmann, K. 1962 On the non-linear energy transfer in a gravity wave spectrum. J. Fluid Mech. 12, 481-500.
22. Hawkes, J. 1959 A land. Penguin.
23. Heiselink, A. W., Stelling, G. S., Kwadijk, J. C. J. & Middelkoop, H. 2003 Inundation of a Dutch river polder, sensitivity analysis of a physically based inundation model using historic data. Water Resour. Res. 39, 1234. (doi:10.1029/2002WR001334.)
24. Home Office 2003 Draft Civil Contingencies Bill. July.
25. Hunt, J. C. R. 1999 Environmental forecasting and modelling turbulence. Physica D 133, 270-295.
26. Hunt, J. C. R. 2002 Wind over waves Proceedings of the IMA Conference and INI programme. Mathematics Today, pp. 46-48, 2002.
27. Hunt, J. C. R. 2005 Report on Tsunami Waves Meeting, 18 March 2005. Math. To-day.
28. Hunt, J. C. R. 2004 How can cities mitigate and adapt to climate change? Build. Res. Inf. 32, 55-57.
29. Hunt, J. C. R. & Coates, A. 2002 Science and application of the space environment: new results and interdisciplinary connections. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. 361, 205-218. (See also correspondence in Nature 2004; 427, 13
30. Hunt, J. C. R. & Vassilicos, J. C. (ed.) 2000. Turbulence structure and vortex dynamics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
31. Hunt, J. C. R., Orr, A., Rottman, J. W. & Capon, R. 2004 Coriolis effects in mesoscale flows with sharp changes in surface conditions. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 130, 2703-2731.
32. Huthnance, J. 2000 Predicting storm surge and other sea level changes. In Dealing with natural disasters, pp. 135-147. London: The Royal Society.
33. Kerr, R. A. 1998 Models wind big in forecasting El Nino. Science 280, 522-523.
34. Klinenberg, E. 2003 Heat wave - a social autopsy of disaster in Chicago. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
35. Kumar, K. K., Soman, M. K. & Kumar, K. P. 1995 Seasonal forecasts of Indian summer monsoon rainfall: a review. Weather 50, 449.
36. Laxon, S.W., Peacock, N. & Smith, D. 2003 High interannual variability of sea ice thickness in the Arctic region. Nature 425, 947-950.
37. Lee, B. & Davis, I. (ed.) 1998. Forecasts and warnings. London: UK IDNDR Committee/Thomas Telford.
38. Meteorological Office 2001 Annual report. (2001). London: Stationery Office.
39. Meteorological Office 2003 NW Europe temperature and rainfall. 2003. (http://www.metoffice. com/research/seasonal/regional/European_summers/ 2003_update.html)
40. Meteorological Office 2004 Tropical cyclone Caterina. 2004. (http://www.metoffice.com)
41. Mudelsee, M., Börngen, M., Tetzlaff, G. & Grünewald, U. 2003 No upward trends in the occurrence of extreme floods in central Europe. Nature 425, 166-169.
42. Nikiforekis, N. 2005 AMR for global atmospheric modelling. In Adaptive Mesh Refinement-Theory and application (eds. T. Pleura, T. Linde & W. Weir). Lecture notes in computational science and Engineering, vol. 41. Berlin: Springer.
43. Orr, A., Hunt, J., Capon, R., Sommeria, J., Cresswell, D., Durinah, A. In press. Coriolis effects on wind jets and cloudiness along coasts. Weather.
44. Orrell, D. 2002 Role of the metric in forecast error growth: how chaotic is the weather? Tellus 54, 350-362. (doi:10.1034/j.l600-0870.2002.01389.x.)
45. Osborn, T. J. & Hulme, M. 2002 Evidence for trends in heavy rainfall events of the UK. In Flood risk in a changing climate (ed. D. Cox, J. Hunt, P. Mason, H. Wheater & P. Wolf) Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 360.
46. Palmer, T. N. 2001 A non-linear dynamical perspective on model error: a proposal for non-local stochastic-dynamical parametrization in weather and climate prediction models. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 127, 279-304.
47. Palmer, T. N. & Raisonen, E. J. 2002 Quarterly seasonal events in changing climate. Nature 415, 512-514.
48. Parker, D. J. 2004 Designing flood forecasting, warning and response systems from a societal perspective. Meteorologische Zeitschrift 13, 5-11.
49. Peregrine, H. 1983 Proceedings of IMA Conference on Floods, Tides and High Winds. Southend: IMA.
50. Rodda, J. C. & Rodda, H. E. 1999 Hydrological forecasting in dealing with natural disasters. London: Science Advice Section, Royal Society.
51. Rogers, D. P., et al. 1998 Highlights of coastal waves 1996. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 79, 1307-1326.
52. Sajaadi, S. & Hunt, J. C. R. (ed.) 2003. Wind over waves II. Chichester: Ellis Horwood.
53. Saunders, M. A. & Qian, B. 2002 Seasonal predictability of the winter NAO from North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Geophys. Res. Lett. 29. (doi:10.1029/2002GLO14952.)
54. Senior, C. A., Jones, R. G., Lowe, J. A., Durman, C. F. & Hudson, D. 2002 Predictions of extreme precipitation and sea-level rise under climate change. In Flood risk in a changing climate (ed. D. Cox, J. Hunt, P. Mason, H. Wheater & P. Wolf) Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 360.
55. Sheremet, A. & Stone, G. W. 2003 Observations of near shore wave dissipation over muddy sea beds. J. Geophys. Res. 108, 3357.
56. Smith, E. J. 1947 Black winter - the story of the storms and floods 1946-47. London: The Farmers Weekly.
57. Soul, K. M., Archibald, E. J., Hardaker, P. J. & Hounsell, A. 2002 Using the GANDOLF system as a tool to aid the forecasting of lightning strikes. Meteorol. Appl. 9, 229-238.
58. Stott, P. A., Tett, S. F. B., Jones, C. S., Allen, M. R., Mitchell, J. F. B. & Jenkin, C. J. 2000 External control of twentieth century temperature and anthropogenic causes. Science, 2133-2137.
59. Stott, P. A. & Kettleborough, J. A. 2002 Origins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of twenty-first century temperature rise. Nature 416, 723-726. (doi:10.1038/416723a.)
60. Tapsell, S. M., et al. 2002 Vulnerability to flooding: health and social dimensions. In Flood risk in a changing climate (ed. D. Cox, J. Hunt, P. Mason, H. Wheater & P. Wolf) Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 360.
61. Ulbrich, E., Brucher, T., Find, A. J., Leckebusch, G. C., Kruger, A. & Pinto, J. 2003 The central European floods of August 2002. Part 2. Synoptic causes and considerations with respect to climate change. Weather 58, 434-442.
62. United Nations 2002 Population Information Network, www.un.org/popin/ data.html.
63. Wheater, H. S. 2002 Progress in and prospects for fluvial flood modelling. In Flood risk in a changing climate (ed. D. Cox, J. Hunt, P. Mason, H. Wheater & P. Wolf) Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 360.
64. Wolf, J., Hubbert, K. & Flather, R. 1988 A feasibility for developing a joint surge and wave model. Proudmand Ocean Lab. Report No.1, Bidston, UK.
65. World Bank 2002 Annual report. (2002). Washington DC: World Bank.