Issue Ownership and Presidential Campaigning, 1952-2000

Political Science Quarterly

Volumn 118, Issue 4, 2003, Pages 599-626

  Petrocik, John R ^a   Benoit, William L ^a   Hansen, Glenn J ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 2142683075     PISSN: 00323195     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/j.1538-165x.2003.tb00407.x     Document Type: Review

References (73)

1. nd ed. (New Haven, CT, Yale University Press, 1989); Paul S. Herrnson and Kelly D. Patterson, "Agenda Setting and Campaign Advertising in Congressional Elections" in J. A. Thurber, C. J. Nelson, and D. A. Dulio, eds., Crowded Airwaves: Campaign Advertising in Elections (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2000), 96.
2. nd ed. (New Haven, CT, Yale University Press, 1989); Paul S. Herrnson and Kelly D. Patterson, "Agenda Setting and Campaign Advertising in Congressional Elections" in J. A. Thurber, C. J. Nelson, and D. A. Dulio, eds., Crowded Airwaves: Campaign Advertising in Elections (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2000), 96.
3. nd ed. (New Haven, CT, Yale University Press, 1989); Paul S. Herrnson and Kelly D. Patterson, "Agenda Setting and Campaign Advertising in Congressional Elections" in J. A. Thurber, C. J. Nelson, and D. A. Dulio, eds., Crowded Airwaves: Campaign Advertising in Elections (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2000), 96.
4. nd ed. (New Haven, CT, Yale University Press, 1989); Paul S. Herrnson and Kelly D. Patterson, "Agenda Setting and Campaign Advertising in Congressional Elections" in J. A. Thurber, C. J. Nelson, and D. A. Dulio, eds., Crowded Airwaves: Campaign Advertising in Elections (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2000), 96.
5. nd ed. (New Haven, CT, Yale University Press, 1989); Paul S. Herrnson and Kelly D. Patterson, "Agenda Setting and Campaign Advertising in Congressional Elections" in J. A. Thurber, C. J. Nelson, and D. A. Dulio, eds., Crowded Airwaves: Campaign Advertising in Elections (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2000), 96.
6. nd ed. (New Haven, CT, Yale University Press, 1989); Paul S. Herrnson and Kelly D. Patterson, "Agenda Setting and Campaign Advertising in Congressional Elections" in J. A. Thurber, C. J. Nelson, and D. A. Dulio, eds., Crowded Airwaves: Campaign Advertising in Elections (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2000), 96.
7. nd ed. (New Haven, CT, Yale University Press, 1989); Paul S. Herrnson and Kelly D. Patterson, "Agenda Setting and Campaign Advertising in Congressional Elections" in J. A. Thurber, C. J. Nelson, and D. A. Dulio, eds., Crowded Airwaves: Campaign Advertising in Elections (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2000), 96.
8. George Rabinowitz and Stuart Macdonald, "A Directional Theory of Voting," American Political Science Review 83 (March 1989): 93-122. The selective emphasis formulation of the idea is found in Ian Budge and Dennis J. Farlie, Explaining and Predicting Elections (Boston: Allen and Unwin, 1983).
9. George Rabinowitz and Stuart Macdonald, "A Directional Theory of Voting," American Political Science Review 83 (March 1989): 93-122. The selective emphasis formulation of the idea is found in Ian Budge and Dennis J. Farlie, Explaining and Predicting Elections (Boston: Allen and Unwin, 1983).
10. Petrocik, "Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study" and Sellers, "Strategy and Background in Congressional Campaigns."
11. Petrocik, "Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study" and Sellers, "Strategy and Background in Congressional Campaigns."
12. Jacobs and Shapiro also see an ability by candidates to shape the issue concerns and preferences of voters, albeit in a rather different way than is advanced here. Lawrence R. Jacobs and Robert Y. Shapiro, Politicians Don't Pander: Political Manipulation and the Loss of Democratic Responsiveness (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2000).
13. Petrocik, "Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study," Tables 5 and 6.
14. The proposition behind this analysis is that campaigns influence the perceptions and behavior of voters and the outcome of elections. Two recent papers by Daron Shaw provide compelling evidence that campaigns influence voters. Daron Shaw, "The Effect of TV Ads and Candidate Appearances on Statewide Presidential Votes, 1988-1996," American Political Science Review 93 (June 1999): 345-361 and Daron Shaw, "A Study of Presidential Campaign Event Effects from 1952 to 1992," Journal of Politics 61 (May 1999): 387-422. Christopher Blunt shows that campaigns increase salience and increase the consistency between candidate choice and policy priors. Christopher C. Blunt, Producing Responsibility: The Role of Campaigns in Subpresidential Elections. (Ph.D. diss., UCLA, 2002). The debate about campaigns can be sampled in Andrew Gelman and Gary King, "Why Are American Presidential Election Campaign Polls so Variable When Votes Are so Predictable?" British Journal of Political Science 23 (October 1993): 409-451 and Thomas Holbrook, Do Campaigns Matter? (Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, 1996).
15. The proposition behind this analysis is that campaigns influence the perceptions and behavior of voters and the outcome of elections. Two recent papers by Daron Shaw provide compelling evidence that campaigns influence voters. Daron Shaw, "The Effect of TV Ads and Candidate Appearances on Statewide Presidential Votes, 1988-1996," American Political Science Review 93 (June 1999): 345-361 and Daron Shaw, "A Study of Presidential Campaign Event Effects from 1952 to 1992," Journal of Politics 61 (May 1999): 387-422. Christopher Blunt shows that campaigns increase salience and increase the consistency between candidate choice and policy priors. Christopher C. Blunt, Producing Responsibility: The Role of Campaigns in Subpresidential Elections. (Ph.D. diss., UCLA, 2002). The debate about campaigns can be sampled in Andrew Gelman and Gary King, "Why Are American Presidential Election Campaign Polls so Variable When Votes Are so Predictable?" British Journal of Political Science 23 (October 1993): 409-451 and Thomas Holbrook, Do Campaigns Matter? (Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, 1996).
16. The proposition behind this analysis is that campaigns influence the perceptions and behavior of voters and the outcome of elections. Two recent papers by Daron Shaw provide compelling evidence that campaigns influence voters. Daron Shaw, "The Effect of TV Ads and Candidate Appearances on Statewide Presidential Votes, 1988-1996," American Political Science Review 93 (June 1999): 345-361 and Daron Shaw, "A Study of Presidential Campaign Event Effects from 1952 to 1992," Journal of Politics 61 (May 1999): 387-422. Christopher Blunt shows that campaigns increase salience and increase the consistency between candidate choice and policy priors. Christopher C. Blunt, Producing Responsibility: The Role of Campaigns in Subpresidential Elections. (Ph.D. diss., UCLA, 2002). The debate about campaigns can be sampled in Andrew Gelman and Gary King, "Why Are American Presidential Election Campaign Polls so Variable When Votes Are so Predictable?" British Journal of Political Science 23 (October 1993): 409-451 and Thomas Holbrook, Do Campaigns Matter? (Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, 1996).
17. The proposition behind this analysis is that campaigns influence the perceptions and behavior of voters and the outcome of elections. Two recent papers by Daron Shaw provide compelling evidence that campaigns influence voters. Daron Shaw, "The Effect of TV Ads and Candidate Appearances on Statewide Presidential Votes, 1988-1996," American Political Science Review 93 (June 1999): 345-361 and Daron Shaw, "A Study of Presidential Campaign Event Effects from 1952 to 1992," Journal of Politics 61 (May 1999): 387-422. Christopher Blunt shows that campaigns increase salience and increase the consistency between candidate choice and policy priors. Christopher C. Blunt, Producing Responsibility: The Role of Campaigns in Subpresidential Elections. (Ph.D. diss., UCLA, 2002). The debate about campaigns can be sampled in Andrew Gelman and Gary King, "Why Are American Presidential Election Campaign Polls so Variable When Votes Are so Predictable?" British Journal of Political Science 23 (October 1993): 409-451 and Thomas Holbrook, Do Campaigns Matter? (Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, 1996).
18. The proposition behind this analysis is that campaigns influence the perceptions and behavior of voters and the outcome of elections. Two recent papers by Daron Shaw provide compelling evidence that campaigns influence voters. Daron Shaw, "The Effect of TV Ads and Candidate Appearances on Statewide Presidential Votes, 1988-1996," American Political Science Review 93 (June 1999): 345-361 and Daron Shaw, "A Study of Presidential Campaign Event Effects from 1952 to 1992," Journal of Politics 61 (May 1999): 387-422. Christopher Blunt shows that campaigns increase salience and increase the consistency between candidate choice and policy priors. Christopher C. Blunt, Producing Responsibility: The Role of Campaigns in Subpresidential Elections. (Ph.D. diss., UCLA, 2002). The debate about campaigns can be sampled in Andrew Gelman and Gary King, "Why Are American Presidential Election Campaign Polls so Variable When Votes Are so Predictable?" British Journal of Political Science 23 (October 1993): 409-451 and Thomas Holbrook, Do Campaigns Matter? (Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, 1996).
19. Rabinowitz and Macdonald, in their "A Directional Theory of Voting," have similar notions about the importance of commitment.
20. The long-term stability of attitudes and preferences is well documented in Benjamin I. Page and Robert Y. Shapiro, The Rational Public: Fifty Years of Trends in American Policy Preferences (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1992). William G. Mayer, in The Changing American Mind: How and Why American Public Opinion Changed Between 1960 and 1988 (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1993), observes more change, albeit over a lengthy time period.
21. The long-term stability of attitudes and preferences is well documented in Benjamin I. Page and Robert Y. Shapiro, The Rational Public: Fifty Years of Trends in American Policy Preferences (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1992). William G. Mayer, in The Changing American Mind: How and Why American Public Opinion Changed Between 1960 and 1988 (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1993), observes more change, albeit over a lengthy time period.
22. A candidate can own an issue, as, for example, a famous and successful prosecutor might have high credibility of the issue of crime. See Sellers, "Strategy and Background in Congressional Campaigns."
23. William H. Riker, "Rhetorical Interaction During the Ratification Campaign," in William H. Riker, ed., Agenda Formation (Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 1993).
24. This information came by way of personal communications of acquaintances who were working for the Bush, Dole, and Clinton campaigns in 1992 and 1996.
25. Maxwell E. McCombs and Donald Shaw, "The Agenda-Setting Function of Mass Media," Public Opinion Quarterly, 36 (Summer, 1972): 18-22; G. Ray Funkhouser, "The Issues of the Sixties: An Exploratory Study of the Dynamics of Public Opinion," Public Opinion Quarterly, 37 (Spring 1973): 62-75; Wenmouth Williams and David C. Larsen, "Agenda-Setting in an Off-Election Year," Journalism Quarterly, 54 (Winter 1977): 744-749; Lutz Erbring, Edie N. Goldenberg, and Arthur Miller, "Front Page News and Real-World Cues: A New Look at Agenda-Setting by the Media," American Journal of Political Science 24 (February 1980): 16-49; Gerald Stone and Maxwell McCombs, "Tracing the Time Lag in Agenda-Setting," Journalism Quarterly, 58 (Spring 1981): 151-155; David Weaver, Doris A. Graber, Maxwell McCombs, and Chaim Eyal, Media Agenda-Setting in a Presidential Election; Issues, Images, and Interest (New York: Praeger, 1981); Shanto Iyengar, Is Anyone Responsible?: How Television Frames Political Issues (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1991); Klaus Schoenbach and Holli Semetko, "Agenda-Setting, Agenda-Reinforcing or Agenda-Deflating? A Study of the 1990 German National Election," Journalism Quarterly 69 (Winter 1992): 837-847.
26. Maxwell E. McCombs and Donald Shaw, "The Agenda-Setting Function of Mass Media," Public Opinion Quarterly, 36 (Summer, 1972): 18-22; G. Ray Funkhouser, "The Issues of the Sixties: An Exploratory Study of the Dynamics of Public Opinion," Public Opinion Quarterly, 37 (Spring 1973): 62-75; Wenmouth Williams and David C. Larsen, "Agenda-Setting in an Off-Election Year," Journalism Quarterly, 54 (Winter 1977): 744-749; Lutz Erbring, Edie N. Goldenberg, and Arthur Miller, "Front Page News and Real-World Cues: A New Look at Agenda-Setting by the Media," American Journal of Political Science 24 (February 1980): 16-49; Gerald Stone and Maxwell McCombs, "Tracing the Time Lag in Agenda-Setting," Journalism Quarterly, 58 (Spring 1981): 151-155; David Weaver, Doris A. Graber, Maxwell McCombs, and Chaim Eyal, Media Agenda-Setting in a Presidential Election; Issues, Images, and Interest (New York: Praeger, 1981); Shanto Iyengar, Is Anyone Responsible?: How Television Frames Political Issues (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1991); Klaus Schoenbach and Holli Semetko, "Agenda-Setting, Agenda-Reinforcing or Agenda-Deflating? A Study of the 1990 German National Election," Journalism Quarterly 69 (Winter 1992): 837-847.
27. Maxwell E. McCombs and Donald Shaw, "The Agenda-Setting Function of Mass Media," Public Opinion Quarterly, 36 (Summer, 1972): 18-22; G. Ray Funkhouser, "The Issues of the Sixties: An Exploratory Study of the Dynamics of Public Opinion," Public Opinion Quarterly, 37 (Spring 1973): 62-75; Wenmouth Williams and David C. Larsen, "Agenda-Setting in an Off-Election Year," Journalism Quarterly, 54 (Winter 1977): 744-749; Lutz Erbring, Edie N. Goldenberg, and Arthur Miller, "Front Page News and Real-World Cues: A New Look at Agenda-Setting by the Media," American Journal of Political Science 24 (February 1980): 16-49; Gerald Stone and Maxwell McCombs, "Tracing the Time Lag in Agenda-Setting," Journalism Quarterly, 58 (Spring 1981): 151-155; David Weaver, Doris A. Graber, Maxwell McCombs, and Chaim Eyal, Media Agenda-Setting in a Presidential Election; Issues, Images, and Interest (New York: Praeger, 1981); Shanto Iyengar, Is Anyone Responsible?: How Television Frames Political Issues (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1991); Klaus Schoenbach and Holli Semetko, "Agenda-Setting, Agenda-Reinforcing or Agenda-Deflating? A Study of the 1990 German National Election," Journalism Quarterly 69 (Winter 1992): 837-847.
28. Maxwell E. McCombs and Donald Shaw, "The Agenda-Setting Function of Mass Media," Public Opinion Quarterly, 36 (Summer, 1972): 18-22; G. Ray Funkhouser, "The Issues of the Sixties: An Exploratory Study of the Dynamics of Public Opinion," Public Opinion Quarterly, 37 (Spring 1973): 62-75; Wenmouth Williams and David C. Larsen, "Agenda-Setting in an Off-Election Year," Journalism Quarterly, 54 (Winter 1977): 744-749; Lutz Erbring, Edie N. Goldenberg, and Arthur Miller, "Front Page News and Real-World Cues: A New Look at Agenda-Setting by the Media," American Journal of Political Science 24 (February 1980): 16-49; Gerald Stone and Maxwell McCombs, "Tracing the Time Lag in Agenda-Setting," Journalism Quarterly, 58 (Spring 1981): 151-155; David Weaver, Doris A. Graber, Maxwell McCombs, and Chaim Eyal, Media Agenda-Setting in a Presidential Election; Issues, Images, and Interest (New York: Praeger, 1981); Shanto Iyengar, Is Anyone Responsible?: How Television Frames Political Issues (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1991); Klaus Schoenbach and Holli Semetko, "Agenda-Setting, Agenda-Reinforcing or Agenda-Deflating? A Study of the 1990 German National Election," Journalism Quarterly 69 (Winter 1992): 837-847.
29. Maxwell E. McCombs and Donald Shaw, "The Agenda-Setting Function of Mass Media," Public Opinion Quarterly, 36 (Summer, 1972): 18-22; G. Ray Funkhouser, "The Issues of the Sixties: An Exploratory Study of the Dynamics of Public Opinion," Public Opinion Quarterly, 37 (Spring 1973): 62-75; Wenmouth Williams and David C. Larsen, "Agenda-Setting in an Off-Election Year," Journalism Quarterly, 54 (Winter 1977): 744-749; Lutz Erbring, Edie N. Goldenberg, and Arthur Miller, "Front Page News and Real-World Cues: A New Look at Agenda-Setting by the Media," American Journal of Political Science 24 (February 1980): 16-49; Gerald Stone and Maxwell McCombs, "Tracing the Time Lag in Agenda-Setting," Journalism Quarterly, 58 (Spring 1981): 151-155; David Weaver, Doris A. Graber, Maxwell McCombs, and Chaim Eyal, Media Agenda-Setting in a Presidential Election; Issues, Images, and Interest (New York: Praeger, 1981); Shanto Iyengar, Is Anyone Responsible?: How Television Frames Political Issues (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1991); Klaus Schoenbach and Holli Semetko, "Agenda-Setting, Agenda-Reinforcing or Agenda-Deflating? A Study of the 1990 German National Election," Journalism Quarterly 69 (Winter 1992): 837-847.
30. Maxwell E. McCombs and Donald Shaw, "The Agenda-Setting Function of Mass Media," Public Opinion Quarterly, 36 (Summer, 1972): 18-22; G. Ray Funkhouser, "The Issues of the Sixties: An Exploratory Study of the Dynamics of Public Opinion," Public Opinion Quarterly, 37 (Spring 1973): 62-75; Wenmouth Williams and David C. Larsen, "Agenda-Setting in an Off-Election Year," Journalism Quarterly, 54 (Winter 1977): 744-749; Lutz Erbring, Edie N. Goldenberg, and Arthur Miller, "Front Page News and Real-World Cues: A New Look at Agenda-Setting by the Media," American Journal of Political Science 24 (February 1980): 16-49; Gerald Stone and Maxwell McCombs, "Tracing the Time Lag in Agenda-Setting," Journalism Quarterly, 58 (Spring 1981): 151-155; David Weaver, Doris A. Graber, Maxwell McCombs, and Chaim Eyal, Media Agenda-Setting in a Presidential Election; Issues, Images, and Interest (New York: Praeger, 1981); Shanto Iyengar, Is Anyone Responsible?: How Television Frames Political Issues (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1991); Klaus Schoenbach and Holli Semetko, "Agenda-Setting, Agenda-Reinforcing or Agenda-Deflating? A Study of the 1990 German National Election," Journalism Quarterly 69 (Winter 1992): 837-847.
31. Maxwell E. McCombs and Donald Shaw, "The Agenda-Setting Function of Mass Media," Public Opinion Quarterly, 36 (Summer, 1972): 18-22; G. Ray Funkhouser, "The Issues of the Sixties: An Exploratory Study of the Dynamics of Public Opinion," Public Opinion Quarterly, 37 (Spring 1973): 62-75; Wenmouth Williams and David C. Larsen, "Agenda-Setting in an Off-Election Year," Journalism Quarterly, 54 (Winter 1977): 744-749; Lutz Erbring, Edie N. Goldenberg, and Arthur Miller, "Front Page News and Real-World Cues: A New Look at Agenda-Setting by the Media," American Journal of Political Science 24 (February 1980): 16-49; Gerald Stone and Maxwell McCombs, "Tracing the Time Lag in Agenda-Setting," Journalism Quarterly, 58 (Spring 1981): 151-155; David Weaver, Doris A. Graber, Maxwell McCombs, and Chaim Eyal, Media Agenda-Setting in a Presidential Election; Issues, Images, and Interest (New York: Praeger, 1981); Shanto Iyengar, Is Anyone Responsible?: How Television Frames Political Issues (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1991); Klaus Schoenbach and Holli Semetko, "Agenda-Setting, Agenda-Reinforcing or Agenda-Deflating? A Study of the 1990 German National Election," Journalism Quarterly 69 (Winter 1992): 837-847.
32. Maxwell E. McCombs and Donald Shaw, "The Agenda-Setting Function of Mass Media," Public Opinion Quarterly, 36 (Summer, 1972): 18-22; G. Ray Funkhouser, "The Issues of the Sixties: An Exploratory Study of the Dynamics of Public Opinion," Public Opinion Quarterly, 37 (Spring 1973): 62-75; Wenmouth Williams and David C. Larsen, "Agenda-Setting in an Off-Election Year," Journalism Quarterly, 54 (Winter 1977): 744-749; Lutz Erbring, Edie N. Goldenberg, and Arthur Miller, "Front Page News and Real-World Cues: A New Look at Agenda-Setting by the Media," American Journal of Political Science 24 (February 1980): 16-49; Gerald Stone and Maxwell McCombs, "Tracing the Time Lag in Agenda-Setting," Journalism Quarterly, 58 (Spring 1981): 151-155; David Weaver, Doris A. Graber, Maxwell McCombs, and Chaim Eyal, Media Agenda-Setting in a Presidential Election; Issues, Images, and Interest (New York: Praeger, 1981); Shanto Iyengar, Is Anyone Responsible?: How Television Frames Political Issues (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1991); Klaus Schoenbach and Holli Semetko, "Agenda-Setting, Agenda-Reinforcing or Agenda-Deflating? A Study of the 1990 German National Election," Journalism Quarterly 69 (Winter 1992): 837-847.
33. Shanto Iyengar, Mark Peters, and Donald Kinder, "Experimental Demonstrations of the 'Not-So-Minimal' Consequences of Television News Programs," American Political Science Review, 76 (December 1982): 848-858; Shanto Iyengar and Donald Kinder, News that Matters: Television and American Public Opinion (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1987).
34. Shanto Iyengar, Mark Peters, and Donald Kinder, "Experimental Demonstrations of the 'Not-So-Minimal' Consequences of Television News Programs," American Political Science Review, 76 (December 1982): 848-858; Shanto Iyengar and Donald Kinder, News that Matters: Television and American Public Opinion (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1987).
35. Jon Krosnick and Donald Kinder, "Altering the Foundations of Support for the President Through Priming," American Political Science Review 84 (June 1990): 497-512.
36. John Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1992); Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, eds., Choices, Values, and Frames (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000).
37. John Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1992); Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, eds., Choices, Values, and Frames (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000).
38. Elihu Katz and J. L. Feldman, "The Debates in Light of Research: A Survey of Surveys" in Sidney Kraus, ed., The Great Debates: Kennedy vs. Nixon, 1960 (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1962).
39. Linda L. Swanson and David L. Swanson, "The Agenda-Setting Functions of the First Ford-Carter Debate," Communication Monographs 45 (November 1978): 347-353; but Lee B. Becker, David H. Weaver, Doris A. Graber, and Maxwell E. McCombs, "Influence on Public Agendas," in Sidney Kraus, ed., The Great Debates: Carter vs. Ford, 1976 (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1979).
40. Linda L. Swanson and David L. Swanson, "The Agenda-Setting Functions of the First Ford-Carter Debate," Communication Monographs 45 (November 1978): 347-353; but Lee B. Becker, David H. Weaver, Doris A. Graber, and Maxwell E. McCombs, "Influence on Public Agendas," in Sidney Kraus, ed., The Great Debates: Carter vs. Ford, 1976 (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1979).
41. Paul S. Herrnson and Kelly D. Patterson, "Agenda Setting and Campaign Advertising in Congressional Elections," in James A. Thurber, Candace J. Nelson, and David A. Dulio, eds., Crowded Airwaves; Campaign Advertising in Elections (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2000), 99.
42. The longstanding debate about the level of issue consistency among voters may be resolvable in light of the insights of priming and framing. Voters may not have become more ideological in recent years, but it is entirely possible that levels of issue consistency do vary, as Nie et al. asserted, according to the salience of candidate conflict over issues. See Norman H. Nie, Sidney Verba, and John R. Petrocik, The Changing American Voter, enlarged ed. (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1979). This, of course, is also the thesis that structures Zaller's analysis of opinion formation (Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion). In addition, there continues to be evidence that opinions are shaped by views expressed by persons in the media. Benjamin I. Page, Robert Y. Shapiro, and Glenn R. Dempsey, "What Moves Public Opinion?" American Political Science Review 81 (March 1987): 23-43. In principle, therefore, a campaign might alter attitudes toward some object as well as policy preferences. See John Schleuder, Maxwell McCombs, and Wayne Wanta, "Inside the Agenda-Setting Process: How Political Advertising and TV News Prime Viewers to Think About Issues and Candidates" in Frank Biocca, ed., Television and Political Advertising: Psychological Processes (Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum, 1991).
43. The longstanding debate about the level of issue consistency among voters may be resolvable in light of the insights of priming and framing. Voters may not have become more ideological in recent years, but it is entirely possible that levels of issue consistency do vary, as Nie et al. asserted, according to the salience of candidate conflict over issues. See Norman H. Nie, Sidney Verba, and John R. Petrocik, The Changing American Voter, enlarged ed. (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1979). This, of course, is also the thesis that structures Zaller's analysis of opinion formation (Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion). In addition, there continues to be evidence that opinions are shaped by views expressed by persons in the media. Benjamin I. Page, Robert Y. Shapiro, and Glenn R. Dempsey, "What Moves Public Opinion?" American Political Science Review 81 (March 1987): 23-43. In principle, therefore, a campaign might alter attitudes toward some object as well as policy preferences. See John Schleuder, Maxwell McCombs, and Wayne Wanta, "Inside the Agenda-Setting Process: How Political Advertising and TV News Prime Viewers to Think About Issues and Candidates" in Frank Biocca, ed., Television and Political Advertising: Psychological Processes (Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum, 1991).
44. The longstanding debate about the level of issue consistency among voters may be resolvable in light of the insights of priming and framing. Voters may not have become more ideological in recent years, but it is entirely possible that levels of issue consistency do vary, as Nie et al. asserted, according to the salience of candidate conflict over issues. See Norman H. Nie, Sidney Verba, and John R. Petrocik, The Changing American Voter, enlarged ed. (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1979). This, of course, is also the thesis that structures Zaller's analysis of opinion formation (Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion). In addition, there continues to be evidence that opinions are shaped by views expressed by persons in the media. Benjamin I. Page, Robert Y. Shapiro, and Glenn R. Dempsey, "What Moves Public Opinion?" American Political Science Review 81 (March 1987): 23-43. In principle, therefore, a campaign might alter attitudes toward some object as well as policy preferences. See John Schleuder, Maxwell McCombs, and Wayne Wanta, "Inside the Agenda-Setting Process: How Political Advertising and TV News Prime Viewers to Think About Issues and Candidates" in Frank Biocca, ed., Television and Political Advertising: Psychological Processes (Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum, 1991).
45. The longstanding debate about the level of issue consistency among voters may be resolvable in light of the insights of priming and framing. Voters may not have become more ideological in recent years, but it is entirely possible that levels of issue consistency do vary, as Nie et al. asserted, according to the salience of candidate conflict over issues. See Norman H. Nie, Sidney Verba, and John R. Petrocik, The Changing American Voter, enlarged ed. (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1979). This, of course, is also the thesis that structures Zaller's analysis of opinion formation (Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion). In addition, there continues to be evidence that opinions are shaped by views expressed by persons in the media. Benjamin I. Page, Robert Y. Shapiro, and Glenn R. Dempsey, "What Moves Public Opinion?" American Political Science Review 81 (March 1987): 23-43. In principle, therefore, a campaign might alter attitudes toward some object as well as policy preferences. See John Schleuder, Maxwell McCombs, and Wayne Wanta, "Inside the Agenda-Setting Process: How Political Advertising and TV News Prime Viewers to Think About Issues and Candidates" in Frank Biocca, ed., Television and Political Advertising: Psychological Processes (Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum, 1991).
46. Petrocik, "Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study" and Sellers, "Strategy and Background in Congressional Campaigns."
47. Petrocik, "Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study" and Sellers, "Strategy and Background in Congressional Campaigns."
48. In some years, based on the holdings of the Oklahoma archive, thirty minutes of spots were either never produced or not preserved.
49. This sample is described in William L. Benoit, Seeing Spots: A Functional Analysis of Presidential Television Advertisements, 1952-1996 (Westport: Praeger, 1999); William L. Benoit, John P. McHale, Glenn J. Hansen, P. M. Pier, and John P. McGuire, Campaign 2000: A Functional Analysis of Acclaiming, Attacking, and Defending. (Lanham, MD; Rowman and Littlefield, in press).
50. This sample is described in William L. Benoit, Seeing Spots: A Functional Analysis of Presidential Television Advertisements, 1952-1996 (Westport: Praeger, 1999); William L. Benoit, John P. McHale, Glenn J. Hansen, P. M. Pier, and John P. McGuire, Campaign 2000: A Functional Analysis of Acclaiming, Attacking, and Defending. (Lanham, MD; Rowman and Littlefield, in press).
51. Petrocik, "Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study."
52. I b i d.
53. Budge and Farlie, Explaining and Predicting Elections.
54. The source of this advantage has several possible explanations. One common observation is the nature of the office. That is, the presidency and perhaps all executive offices deal with public goods, and the Democratic party's programmatic focus on redistributive goods gives it a disadvantage. Other offices, legislative ones for example, are more focused on distributive and redistributive issues - a fact that Jacobson and others argue gives an advantage to Democrats in legislative elections. A national versus local dimension may also play a role here.
55. Candidates behave differently in their primary elections. In a companion study, Benoit and Hansen have observed a much heavier emphasis on owned issues in primary elections. That is, Democrats are substantially more focused on Democratic issues in primaries relative to the general election content; Republicans are similarly more focused on their issues in primaries than they are in general elections. See William L. Benoit and Glenn J. Hansen, "Issue Adaptation of Presidential Television Spots and Debates to Primary and General Election Audiences," Communication Research Reports 19 (Spring 2002): 138-145.
56. The New York Times content analysis is fully explained in Petrocik, "Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study."
57. References to the "campaign" hereafter refer to the issue mentions in the TV spots.
58. William L. Benoit and Heather Currie, "Inaccuracies in Media Coverage of Presidential Debates," Argumentation and Advocacy 38 (Summer 2001): 28-39; Bryan H. Reber and William L. Benoit, "Presidential Debate Stories Accentuate the Negative," Newspaper Research Journal 22 (Summer 2001): 30-43.
59. William L. Benoit and Heather Currie, "Inaccuracies in Media Coverage of Presidential Debates," Argumentation and Advocacy 38 (Summer 2001): 28-39; Bryan H. Reber and William L. Benoit, "Presidential Debate Stories Accentuate the Negative," Newspaper Research Journal 22 (Summer 2001): 30-43.
60. Doris A.Graber, Mass Media and American Politics (Washington DC: CQ Press, 1997).
61. Barbara G. Salmore and Stephen A. Salmore, Candidates, Parties, and Campaigns: Electoral Politics in America (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 1989); Paul Herrnson, Congressional Elections (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2000).
62. Barbara G. Salmore and Stephen A. Salmore, Candidates, Parties, and Campaigns: Electoral Politics in America (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 1989); Paul Herrnson, Congressional Elections (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2000).
63. Martin P. Wattenberg, The Decline of American Political Parties: 1952-1996 (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1998); Dave D'Alessio and Mike Allen, "Media Bias in Presidential Elections: A Meta-Analysis," Journal of Communication 50 (March, 2000): 133-156.
64. Martin P. Wattenberg, The Decline of American Political Parties: 1952-1996 (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1998); Dave D'Alessio and Mike Allen, "Media Bias in Presidential Elections: A Meta-Analysis," Journal of Communication 50 (March, 2000): 133-156.
65. That finding is not a part of the analysis, but see Petrocik, "Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study."
66. I b i d.
67. For the basis of the expected vote see Philip E. Converse, "The Concept of a Normal Vote" in Angus Campbell, et al. Elections and the Political Order (New York: Wiley, 1966); John R. Petrocik, "An Expected Party Vote: New Data for an Old Concept," American Journal of Political Science 33 (February 1989): 44-66.
68. For the basis of the expected vote see Philip E. Converse, "The Concept of a Normal Vote" in Angus Campbell, et al. Elections and the Political Order (New York: Wiley, 1966); John R. Petrocik, "An Expected Party Vote: New Data for an Old Concept," American Journal of Political Science 33 (February 1989): 44-66.
69. See the special post-election symposium in PS: Political Science and Politics (2000), especially the papers by Campbell, Holbrook, and Lewis-Beck and Tien. See also Michael Lewis-Beck and Tom W. Rice, Forecasting Elections (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 1992) for analysis of predictive models may also be a useful reference on the question of forecasting elections.
70. See the special post-election symposium in PS: Political Science and Politics (2000), especially the papers by Campbell, Holbrook, and Lewis-Beck and Tien. See also Michael Lewis-Beck and Tom W. Rice, Forecasting Elections (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 1992) for analysis of predictive models may also be a useful reference on the question of forecasting elections.
71. Paul Allen Beck, Russell J. Dalton, Steven Greene, and Robert Huckfeldt, "The Social Calculus of Voting: Interpersonal, Media, and Organizational Influences on Presidential Choices," American Political Science Review 96 (March 2002): 57-74. Beck and his colleagues produce strong evidence that interpersonal communication through established personal networks is more influential than media content per se. Also see C. L. Brians and Martin P. Wattenberg, "Campaign Issue Knowledge and Salience: Comparing Reception from TV Commercials, TV News, and Newspapers," American Journal of Political Science 40 (February 1996): 172-193 for a stronger knowledge effect from campaign ads than from newspaper or TV news.
72. Paul Allen Beck, Russell J. Dalton, Steven Greene, and Robert Huckfeldt, "The Social Calculus of Voting: Interpersonal, Media, and Organizational Influences on Presidential Choices," American Political Science Review 96 (March 2002): 57-74. Beck and his colleagues produce strong evidence that interpersonal communication through established personal networks is more influential than media content per se. Also see C. L. Brians and Martin P. Wattenberg, "Campaign Issue Knowledge and Salience: Comparing Reception from TV Commercials, TV News, and Newspapers," American Journal of Political Science 40 (February 1996): 172-193 for a stronger knowledge effect from campaign ads than from newspaper or TV news.
73. See Jacobson's "institutional" theory of issue-ownership. Gary C. Jacobson, The Electoral Origins of Divided Government (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1990).