Earthquake cycles and physical modeling of the process leading up to a large earthquake

Earth, Planets and Space

Volumn 56, Issue 8, 2004, Pages 773-793

  Ohnaka, Mitiyasu ^a,b,c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO   (Japan)

^b UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

^c NONE   (Japan)

Author keywords

A unified scenario for earthquake forecasting; Earthquake rupture; Inhomogeniety; Physical modeling; Physical scaling; Physics of rock friction and fracture; Rational constitutive law

Indexed keywords

EARTHQUAKE PRECURSOR;

EID: 20544437059     PISSN: 13438832     EISSN: 18805981     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1186/BF03353085     Document Type: Review

References (104)

1. Aki, K., Characterization of barriers on an earthquake fault, J. Geophys. Res., 84, 6140-6148, 1979.
2. Aki, K., Asperities, barriers, characteristic earthquakes and strong motion prediction, J. Geophys. Res., 89, 5867-5872, 1984.
3. Andrews, D. J., Rupture propagation with finite stress in antiplane strain, J. Geophys. Res., 81, 3575-3582, 1976a.
4. Andrews, D. J., Rupture velocity of plane strain shear cracks, J. Geophys. Res., 81, 5679-5687, 1976b.
5. Aochi, H. and M. Matsu'ura, Slip- and time-dependent fault constitutive law and its significance in earthquake generation cycles, Pure Appl. Geophys., 159, 2029-2044, 2002.
6. Beroza, G. C. and T. Mikumo, Short slip duration in dynamic rupture in the presence of heterogeneous fault properties, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 22449-22460, 1996.
7. Bizzarri, A., M. Cocco, D. J. Andrews, and E. Boschi, Solving the dynamic rupture problem with different numerical approaches and constitutive laws, Geophys. J. Int., 144, 656-678, 2001.
8. Blanpied, M. L., T. E. Tullis, and J. D. Weeks, Frictional behavior of granite at low and high sliding velocities, Geophys. Res. Lett., 14, 554-557, 1987.
9. Bouchon, M., The state of stress on some faults of the San Andreas system as inferred from near-field strong motion data, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 11731-11744, 1997.
10. Bowman, D. D., G. Ouillon, C. G. Sammis, A. Sornette, and D. Sornette, An observational test of the critical earthquake concept, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 24359-24372, 1998.
11. Brehm, D. J. and L. W. Braile, Intermediate-term earthquake prediction using precursory events in the New Madrid seismic zone, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 88, 564-580, 1998.
12. Bufe, C. G. and D. J. Varnes, Predictive modeling of the seismic cycle of the greater San Francisco Bay region, J. Geophys. Res., 98, 9871-9883, 1993.
13. Bufe, C. G., S. P. Nishenko, and D. J. Varnes, Seismicity trends and potential for large earthquakes in the Alaska-Aleutian region, Pure Appl. Geophys., 142, 83-99, 1994.
14. Campillo, M. and I. R. Ionescu, Initiation of antiplane shear instability under slip dependent friction, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 20363-20371, 1997.
15. Campillo, M., P. Favreau, I. R. Ionescu, and C. Voisin, On the effective friction law of a heterogeneous fault, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 16307-16322, 2001.
16. Carlson, J. M. and J. S. Langer, Mechanical model of an earthquake fault, Phys. Rev., A 40, 6470-6484, 1989.
17. Carlson, J. M., J. S. Langer, B. E. Show, and C. Tang, Intrinsic properties of a Burridge-Knopoff model of an earthquake fault, Phys. Rev., A 44, 884-897, 1991.
18. Cocco, M. and A. Bizzarri, On the slip-weakening behavior of rate-and state dependent constitutive laws, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29 (11), 10.1029/2001GL013999, 2002.
19. Day, S. M., Three-dimensional simulation of spontaneous rupture: The effect of nonuniform prestress, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 72, 1881-1902, 1982.
20. Dieterich, J. H., Preseismic fault slip and earthquake prediction, J. Geophys. Res., 83, 3940-3948, 1978.
21. Dieterich, J. H., Modeling of rock friction, 1. Experimental results and constitutive equations, J. Geophys. Res., 84, 2161-2168, 1979.
22. Dieterich, J. H., Constitutive properties of faults with simulated gouge, in Mechanical Behavior of Crystal Rocks, edited by N. L. Cater, M. Friedman, J. M. Logan, and D. W. Stearns, Geophysical Monograph, 24, pp. 103-120, American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C., 1981.
23. Dieterich, J. H., A model for the nucleation of earthquake slip, in Earthquake Source Mechanics, edited by S. Das, J. Boatwright, and C. H. Scholz, pp. 37-47, Geophysical Monograph, 37, American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C., 1986.
24. Dieterich, J. H. and B. Kilgore, Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 93, 3787-3794, 1996.
25. Dodge, D. A., G. C. Beroza, and W. L. Ellsworth, Evolution of the 1992 Landers, California, foreshock sequence and its implications for earthquake nucleation, J. Geophys. Res., 100, 9865-9880, 1995.
26. Dodge, D. A., G. C. Beroza, and W. L. Ellsworth, Detailed observations of California foreshock sequence: Implications for the earthquake initiation process, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 22371-22392, 1996.
27. Ellsworth, W. L. and G. C. Beroza, Seismic evidence for an earthquake nucleation phase, Science, 268, 851-855, 1995.
28. Engdahl, E. R. and A. Villasenor, Global seismicity: 1900-1999, in International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, Part A, edited by W. H. K. Lee, H. Kanamori, P. C. Jennings, and C. Kisslinger, pp. 665-690, Academic Press, New York, 2002.
29. Fedotov, S. A., Regularities of the distribution of strong earthquakes in Kamchatka, the Kurile Islands and northeastern Japan, Acad Sci. USSR Trudy Inst. Phys. Earth, 36, 66-93, 1965.
30. Fukuyama, E. and R. Madariaga, Dynamic propagation and interaction of a rupture front on a planer fault, Pure Appl. Geophys., 157, 1959-1979, 2000.
31. Fukuyama, E. and K. B. Olsen, A condition for super-shear rupture propagation in a heterogeneous stress field, Pure Appl. Geophys., 159, 2047-2056, 2002.
32. Gu, J.-C., J. R. Rice, A. L. Ruina, and S. T. Tse, Slip motion and stability of a single degree of freedom elastic system with rate and state dependent friction, J. Mech. Phys. Solids, 32, 167-196, 1984.
33. Ida, Y., Cohesive force across the tip of a longitudinal-shear crack and Griffith's specific surface energy, J. Geophys. Res., 77, 3796-3805, 1972.
34. Ida, Y., The maximum acceleration of seismic ground motion, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 63, 959-968, 1973.
35. Ide, S. and M. Takeo, Determination of constitutive relations of fault slip based on seismic wave analysis, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 27379-27391, 1997.
36. Imamura, A., On the seismic activity of central Japan, Japanese Journal of Astronomy and Geophysics, Transactions, National Research Council of Japan, 6, 119-137, 1928/29.
37. Ionescu, I. R. and M. Campillo, Influence of the shape of the friction law and fault finiteness on the duration of initiation, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 3013-3024, 1999.
38. Ishibashi, K. and K. Satake, Problems on forecasting great earthquakes in the subduction zones around Japan by means of paleoseismology, J. Seismol. Soc. Japan, Second Series, 50 (Supplement), 1-21, 1998.
39. Jaume, S. C. and L. R. Sykes, Evolving towards a critical point: A review of accelerating seismic moment/energy release prior to large and great earthquakes, Pure Appl. Geophys., 155, 279-306, 1999.
40. Kanamori, H., The nature of seismicity patterns before large earthquakes, in Earthquake Prediction - An International Review, edited by D. W. Simpson and P. G. Richards, Maurice Ewing Series 4, pp. 1-19, American Geophysical Union, Washington D.C., 1981.
41. Kanamori, H., Earthquake prediction: An overview, in International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, Part B, edited by W. H. K. Lee, H. Kanamori, P. C. Jennings, and C. Kisslinger, pp. 1205-1216, Academic Press, New York, 2002.
42. Kanamori, H. and G. S. Stewart, Seismological aspects of the Guatemala earthquake of February 4, 1976, J. Geophys. Res., 83, 3427-3434, 1978.
43. Kato, A., M. Ohnaka, and H. Mochizuki, Constitutive properties for the shear failure of intact granite in seismogenic environments, J. Geophys. Res., 108(B1), 2060, doi: 10.1029/2001JB000791, 2003a.
44. Kato, A., M. Ohnaka, S. Yoshida, and H. Mochizuki, Effects of strain rate on constitutive properties for the shear failure of intact granite in seismogenic environments, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(21), 2108, doi: 10.1029/2003GL018372, 2003b.
45. Kumamoto, T., Long-term conditional seismic hazard of Quaternary active faults in Japan, J. Seismol. Soc. Japan, Second Series, 50 (Supplement), 53-71, 1998.
46. Linker, M. F. and J. H. Dieterich, Effects of variable normal stress on rock friction: Observations and constitutive equations, J. Geophys. Res., 97, 4923-4940, 1992.
47. Madariaga, R. and K. B. Olsen, Criticality of rupture dynamics in 3-D, Pure Appl. Geophys., 157, 1981-2001, 2000.
48. Madariaga, R. and K. B. Olsen, Earthquake dynamics, in International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, Part A, edited by W. H. K. Lee, H. Kanamori, P. C. Jennings, and C. Kisslinger, pp. 175-194, Academic Press, New York, 2002.
49. Madariaga, R., K. B. Olsen, and R. J. Archuleta, Modeling dynamic rupture in a 3-D earthquake fault model, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 88, 1182-1197, 1998.
50. Maeda, K., Time distribution of immediate foreshocks obtained by a stacking method, Pure Appl. Geophys., 155, 381-394, 1999.
51. Masuda, K., H. Mizutani, and I. Yamada, Experimental study of strain-rate dependence and pressure dependence of failure properties of granite, J. Phys. Earth, 35, 37-66, 1987.
52. Matsuda, T., Present state of long-term prediction of earthquakes based on active fault data in Japan - An example for the Itoigawa-Shizuoka tectonic line active fault system -, J. Seismol. Soc. Japan, Second Series, 50 (Supplement), 23-33, 1998.
53. Matsu'ura, M., H. Kataoka, and B. Shibazaki, Slip-dependent friction law and nucleation processes in earthquake rupture, Tectonophysics, 211, 135-148, 1992.
54. McCann, W. R., S. P. Nishenko, L. R. Sykes, and J. Krause, Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: Seismic potential for major boundaries, Pure Appl. Geophys., 117, 1082-1147, 1979.
55. Mogi, K., Sequential occurrence of recent great earthquakes, J. Phys. Earth, 16, 30-36, 1968.
56. Nakanishi, H., Earthquake dynamics driven by a viscous fluid, Phys. Rev., A 46, 4689-4692, 1992.
57. Nishenko, S. P., Circum-Pacific seismic potential: 1989-1999, Pure Appl. Geophys., 135, 169-259, 1991.
58. Ohnaka, M., Earthquake source nucleation: a physical model for short-term precursors, Tectonophysics, 211, 149-178, 1992.
59. Ohnaka, M., Critical size of the nucleation zone of earthquake rupture inferred from immediate foreshock activity, J. Phys. Earth, 41, 45-56, 1993.
60. Ohnaka, M., A shear failure strength law of rock in the brittle-plastic transition regime, Geophys. Res. Lett., 22, 25-28, 1995.
61. Ohnaka, M., Nonuniformity of the constitutive law parameters for shear rupture and quasistatic nucleation to dynamic rupture: A physical model of earthquake generation processes, Proc. Natl. Acad Sci. USA, 93, 3795-3802, 1996.
62. Ohnaka, M., Earthquake generation processes and earthquake prediction: Implications of the underlying physical law and seismogenic environments, J. Seismol. Soc. Japan, Second Series, 50 (Supplement), 129-155, 1998.
63. Ohnaka, M., A physical scaling relation between the size of an earthquake and its nucleation zone size, Pure Appl. Geophys., 157, 2259-2282, 2000.
64. Ohnaka, M., A constitutive scaling law and a unified comprehension for frictional slip failure, shear fracture of intact rock, and earthquake rupture, J. Geophys. Res., 108(B2), 2080, doi:10.1029/ 2000JB000123, 2003.
65. Ohnaka, M., A constitutive scaling law for shear rupture that is inherently scale-dependent, and physical scaling of nucleation time to critical point, Pure Appl. Geophys., 2004 (in press).
66. Ohnaka, M. and Y. Kuwahara, Characteristic features of local breakdown near a crack-tip in the transition zone from nucleation to unstable rupture during stick-slip shear failure, Tectonophysics, 175, 197-220, 1990.
67. Ohnaka, M. and L.-f. Shen, Scaling of the shear rupture process from nucleation to dynamic propagation: Implications of geometric irregularity of the rupturing surfaces, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 817-844, 1999.
68. Ohnaka, M. and T. Yamashita, A cohesive zone model for dynamic shear faulting based on experimentally inferred constitutive relation and strong motion source parameters, J. Geophys. Res., 94, 4089-4104, 1989.
69. Ohnaka, M., Y. Kuwahara, and K. Yamamoto, Constitutive relations between dynamic physical parameters near a tip of the propagating slip zone during stick-slip shear failure, Tectonophysics, 144, 109-125, 1987.
70. Ohnaka, M., Y. Kuwahara, K. Yamamoto, and T. Hirasawa, Dynamic breakdown processes and the generating mechanism for high-frequency elastic radiation during stick-slip instabilities, in Earthquake Source Mechanics, edited by S. Das, J. Boatwright, and C. H. Scholz, Geophysical Monograph, 37, pp. 13-24, American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C., 1986.
71. Ohnaka, M., S. Yoshida, L.-f. Shen, and H. Mochizuki, Slip-failure nucleation processes and microseismicity, Seismol. Soc. Japan, Programme and Abstracts, Fall Meeting, No. 2, p. 298, 1993.
72. Ohnaka, M., M. Akatsu, H. Mochizuki, A. Odedra, F. Tagashira, and Y. Yamamoto, A constitutive law for the shear failure of rock under lithospheric conditions, Tectonophysics, 277, 1-27, 1997.
73. Okubo, P. G., Dynamic rupture modeling with laboratory-derived constitutive relations, J. Geophys. Res., 94, 12321-12335, 1989.
74. Okubo, P. G. and J. H. Dieterich, State variable fault constitutive relations for dynamic slip, in Earthquake Source Dynamics, edited by S. Das, J. Boatwright, and C. H. Scholz, Geophysical Monograph, 37, pp. 25-35, American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C., 1986.
75. Palmer, A. C. and J. R. Rice, The growth of slip surfaces in the progressive failure of over-consolidated clay, Proc. Roy. Soc. London, A 332, 527-548, 1973.
76. Papageorgiou, A. S. and K. Aki, A specific barrier model for the quantitative description of inhomogeneous faulting and the prediction of strong ground motion. Part II. Applications of the model, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 73, 953-978, 1983.
77. Rice, J. R., The mechanics of earthquake rupture, in Physics of the Earth's Interior, edited by A. M. Dziewonski and E. Boschi, pp. 555-649, North-Holland, Amsterdam, 1980.
78. Rice, J. R., Constitutive relations for fault slip and earthquake instabilities, Pure Appl. Geophys., 121, 443-475, 1983.
79. Rice, J. R., Shear instability in relation to the constitutive description of fault slip, Proceedings of the 1st International Congress on Rockbursts and Seismicity in Mines, pp. 57-62, Johannesburg, 1984.
80. Rice, J. R. and A. L. Ruina, Stability of steady frictional slipping, J. Appl. Mech., Trans. ASME, 50, 343-349, 1983.
81. Rudnicki, J. W., Fracture mechanics applied to the Earth's crust, Ann. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 8, 489-525, 1980.
82. Rudnicki, J. W., Physical models of earthquake instability and precursory processes, Pure Appl. Geophys., 126, 531-554, 1988.
83. Ruina, A., Slip instability and state variable friction laws, J. Geophys. Res., 88, 10359-10370, 1983.
84. Ruina, A. L., Constitutive relations for frictional slip, in Mechanics of Geomaterials, edited by Z. Bazant, pp. 169-188, John Wiley, New York, 1985.
85. Rundle, J. B., W. Klein, D. L. Turcotte, and B. D. Malamud, Precursory seismic activation and critical-point phenomena, Pure Appl. Geophys., 157, 2165-2182, 2000.
86. Saito, M., Forecasting time of slope failure by tertiary creep, Proceedings of 7th International Conference on Soil Mechanics and Foundation Engineering, 2, 677-683, 1969.
87. Schwartz, D. P. and K. J. Coppersmith, Fault behavior and characteristic earthquakes: Examples from the Wasatch and San Andreas fault zones, J. Geophys. Res., 89, 5681-5698, 1984.
88. Shibazaki, B. and M. Matsu'ura, Spontaneous processes for nucleation, dynamic propagation, and stop of earthquake rupture, Geophys. Res. Lett., 19, 1189-1192, 1992.
89. Shibazaki, B. and M. Matsu'ura, Foreshocks and pre-events associated with the nucleation of large earthquakes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 22, 1305-1308, 1995.
90. Shibazaki, B. and M. Matsu'ura, Transition process from nucleation to high-speed rupture propagation: Scaling from stick-slip experiments to natural earthquakes, Geophys. J. Int., 132, 14-30, 1998.
91. Sieh, K., The repetition of large-earthquake ruptures, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 93, 3764-3771, 1996.
92. Sykes, L. R. and S. P. Nishenko, Probabilities of occurrence of large plate rupturing earthquakes for the San Andreas, San Jacinto, and Imperial faults, California, 1983-2003, J. Geophys. Res., 89, 5905-5927, 1984.
93. Tanaka, S., M. Ohtake, and H. Sato, Evidence for tidal triggering of earthquakes as revealed from statistical analysis of global data, J. Geophys. Res., 107(B10), 2211, doi:10.1029/200IJB001577, 2002.
94. Tullis, T. E. and J. D. Week, Constitutive behavior and stability of frictional sliding of granite, Pure Appl. Geophys., 124, 383-414, 1986.
95. Uenishi, K. and J. R. Rice, Universal nucleation length for slip-weakening rupture instability under nonuniform fault loading, J. Geophys. Res., 108(B01), 2042, doi: 10.1029/2001JB001681, 2003.
96. Utsu, T., Estimation of parameters for recurrence models of earthquakes, Bull. Earthquake Res. Inst., University of Tokyo, 59, 53-66, 1984.
97. Utsu, T., Seismicity patterns and long-term prediction of large earthquakes - Seismic cycles, gaps, quiescence, precursory activities, migration, correlation, etc. -, J. Seismol. Soc. Japan, Second Series, 50 (Supplement), 73-82, 1998.
98. Utsu, T., Seismicity Studies: A Comprehensive Review, 876 pp., University of Tokyo Press, Tokyo, 1999.
99. Utsu, T., Statistical features of seismicity, in International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, Part A, edited by W. H. K. Lee, H. Kanamori, P. C. Jennings, and C. Kisslinger, pp. 719-732, Academic Press, New York, 2002.
100. Varnes, D. J., Predicting earthquakes by analyzing accelerating precursory seismic activity, Pure Appl. Geophys., 130, 661-686, 1989.
101. Yamashita, T. and M. Ohnaka, Nucleation process of unstable rupture in the brittle regime: A theoretical approach based on experimentally inferred relations, J. Geophys. Res., 96, 8351-8367, 1991.
102. Yin, X.-C., X.-Z. Chen, Z.-P. Song, and C. Yin, A new approach to earthquake prediction: The load/unload response ratio (LURR) theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701-715, 1995.
103. Yin, X.-C., Y-C. Wang, K.-Y. Peng, Y.-L. Bai, H.-T. Wang, and X.-F. Yin, Development of a new approach to earthquake prediction: Load/unload response ratio (LURR) theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 157, 2365-2383, 2000.
104. Yin, X.-C., P. Mora, K. Peng, Y. C. Wang, and D. Weatherley, Load-unload response ratio and accelerating moment/energy release critical region scaling and earthquake prediction, Pure Appl. Geophys., 159, 2511-2523, 2002.