Seasonal forecast of tropical climate with coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models: On the respective role of the atmosphere and the ocean components in the drift of the surface temperature error

Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography

Volumn 57, Issue 3, 2005, Pages 387-397

  Lazar, A ^a   Vintzileos, A ^b   Doblas Reyes, F J ^c   Rogel, P ^d   Delecluse, P ^e  

^a UNIVERSITÉ PIERRE ET MARIE CURIE   (France)

^b NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

^c EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS   (United Kingdom)

^d CERFACS   (France)

^e LABORATOIRE DES SCIENCES DU CLIMAT ET DE L ENVIRONNEMENT   (France)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ERROR ANALYSIS; FORECASTING METHOD; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; SEASONALITY; SURFACE TEMPERATURE;

EID: 18544370385     PISSN: 02806495     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00135.x     Document Type: Article

References (22)

1. AchutaRao, K. and Sperber, K. 2002. Simulation ofthe El Niño Southern Oscillation: results from the coupled model intercomparison project. Clim. Dynam. 19, 191-209.
2. Anderson, D., Stockdale, T., Balmaseda, M., Ferranti, L., Vitart, F. and co-authors, 2002. Comparison of the ECMWF seasonal forecast systems 1 and 2, including the relative performance for the 1997/98 El Niño. SAC Report, September 2002. ECMWF Research Department, Reading.
3. Davey, M., Huddleston, M., Sperber, K., Braconnot, P., Bryan, F. and co-authors, 2002. STOIC, a study of coupled model climatology and variability in tropical ocean regions. Clim. Dynam. 18, 403-420.
4. Delecluse, P., Davey, M., Kitamura, Y., Philander, S., Suarez, M. and co-authors, 1998. TOGA review paper: coupled general circulation modeling of the tropical Pacific. J. Geophys. Res. 103, 14 357-14 373.
5. Gent, P. R. and McWilliams, J. C. 1990. Isopycnal mixing in ocean circulation models. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 20, 150-155.
6. Guilyardi, E., Gualdi, S., Slingo, J., Navarra, A., Delecluse, P. and co-authors, 2004. Representing El Niño in coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs: the dominant role of the atmospheric component. J. Climate 17(24), 4623-4629.
7. Ji, M., Kumar, A. and Leetmaa, A. 1994. An experimental coupled forecast system at the National Meteorological Center: some early results. Tellus 46A, 398-418.
8. Kirtman, B. P. 1997. Oceanic Rossby wave dynamics and the ENSO period in a coupled model. J. Climate 10(7), 1690-1704.
9. Latif, M., Sperber, K., Arblaster, J., Braconnot, P., Chen, D. and co-authors, 2001. ENSIP: the El Niño simulation intercomparison. Clim. Dynam. 18, 255-276.
10. Latif, M., Sterl, A., Maier-Reimer, E. and Junge, M. M. 1993. Climate variability in a coupled general circulation model. Part I: The tropical Pacific. J. Climate 6, 5-21.
11. Lengaigne, M., Madec, G., Menkes, C. and Alory, G. 2003. Impact of isopycnal mixing on the tropical ocean circulation, J. Geophys. Res. 108(C11), 3345, doi:10.1029/2002JC001704.
12. Li, T. and Philander, S. G. H. 1996. On the annual cycle of the Eastern Equatorial Pacific. J. Climate 9, 2986-2998.
13. Mechoso, C. R., Robertson, A., Barth, N., Davey, M. and co-authors, 1995. The seasonal cycle over the tropical Pacific in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. Mon. Weather Rev. 123, 2825-2838.
14. Palmer, T. N., Alessandri, A., Andersen, U., Cantelaube, P., Davey, M. and co-authors, 2004. Development of a European multi-model ensemble system for seasonal to inter-annual prediction (DEMETER). Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 85(6), 853-872.
15. Raynaud, S., Speich, S., Guilyardi, E. and Madec, G. 2000. Impact of the ocean lateral diffusion on the ENSO-like variability of a global coupled GCM. Geophys. Res. Lett. 27, 3041-3044.
16. Rosati, A., Miyakoda, K. and Gudgel, R. 1997. The impact of ocean initial conditions on ENSO forecasting with a coupled model. Mon. Weather Rev. 125(5), 754-772.
17. Schneider, E. K., DeWitt, D. G., Rosati, A., Kirtman, B. P., Ji, L. and co-authors, 2003. Retrospective ENSO forecasts: sensitivity to atmospheric model and ocean resolution. Mon. Weather Rev. 131, 3038-3060.
18. Stockdale, T. N. 1997. Coupled ocean-atmosphere forecasts in the presence of climate drift. Mon. Weather Rev. 125, 809-818.
19. Vialard, J., Vitart, F., Balsameda, M. A., Stockdale, T. N. and Anderson, D. L. T. 2005. An ensemble generation method for seasonal forecasting with an ocean-atmosphere coupled model. Mon. Weather Rev. 133, 441-453.
20. Vintzileos, A., Delecluse, P. and Sadourny, R. 1999a. Oil the mechanisms in a tropical ocean-global atmosphere coupled general circulation model. Part I: Mean state and the seasonal cycle. Clim. Dynam. 15, 43-62.
21. Vintzileos, A., Delecluse, P. and Sadourny, R. 1999b. On the mechanisms in a tropical ocean-global atmosphere coupled general circulation model. Part II: Interannual variability and its relation to the seasonal cycle. Clim. Dynam. 15, 63-80.
22. Yang, X-Q. and Anderson, J. L. 2000. Correction of systematic errors in coupled GCM forecasts. J. Climate 13, 2072-2085.