Sensitivity analysis of microbial growth parameter distributions with respect to data quality and quantity by using Monte Carlo analysis

Mathematics and Computers in Simulation

Volumn 65, Issue 3, 2004, Pages 231-243

  Poschet, F ^a   Bernaerts, K ^a   Geeraerd, A H ^a   Scheerlinck, N ^a   Nicolai B M ^a   Van Impe, J F ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF LEUVEN   (Belgium)

Author keywords

Data quality; Data quantity; Monte Carlo analysis; Non linear predictive growth model; Parameter uncertainty

Indexed keywords

DATA ACQUISITION; DRUG INFUSION; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT; ERROR ANALYSIS; MONTE CARLO METHODS; PARAMETER ESTIMATION; PROBABILITY; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK MANAGEMENT; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS;

DATA QUALITY; DATA QUANTITY; HAZARD ANALYSIS AND CRITICAL CONTROL POINTS (HACCP); MICROBIAL GROWTH; NON-LINEAR PREDICTIVE GROWTH MODEL; PARAMETER UNCERTAINITY; PREDICTIVE MICROBIOLOGY;

MICROBIOLOGY;

EID: 1842473940     PISSN: 03784754     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2003.12.002     Document Type: Article

References (23)

1. Baranyi J., Roberts T., A dynamic approach to predicting bacterial growth in food. Int. J. Food Microbiol. 23:1994;277-294.
2. Bernaerts K., Versyck K.J., Van Impe J.F., On the design of optimal dynamic experiments for parameter estimation of a Ratkowsky-type growth kinetics at suboptimal temperatures. Int. J. Food Microbiol. 54:2000;27-38.
3. R.L. Buchanan, R.C. Whiting, Risk assessment and predictive microbiology, J. Food Prot. Suppl. (1996) 31-36.
4. Cassin M.H., Paoli G.M., Lammerding A.M., Simulation for microbial risk assessment. J. Food Prot. 61:1998;1560-1566.
5. Coleman M.E., Marks H.M., Qualitative and quantitative risk assessment. Food Control. 10:1999;289-297.
6. P.H. Elliot, Predictive microbiology and HACCP, J. Food Prot. Suppl. (1996) 48-53.
7. George S.M., Richardson L.C.C., Peck M.W., Predictive models of the effect of temperature, pH and acetic and lactic acids on the growth of Listeria monocytogenes. Int. J. Food Microbiol. 32:1996;73-90.
8. B. Jarvis, Statistical Aspects of the Microbiological Analysis of Foods, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1989.
9. Kilsby D.C., Aspinall L.J., Baird-Parker A.C., A system for setting numerical microbiological specifications for foods. J. Appl. Bacteriol. 46:1979;591-599.
10. 2 Int. J. Food Microbiol. 34:1997;221-232.
11. T.A. McMeekin, J.N. Olley, T. Ross, D.A. Ratkowsky, Predictive Microbiology: Theory and Application, Wiley, New York, 1993.
12. D.C. Montgomery, G.C. Runger, Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, Wiley, Chichester, 1994.
13. D.A.A. Mossel, J.E.L. Corry, C.B. Struijck, R.M. Baird, Essentials of the Microbiology of Foods, Wiley, Chichester, 1995.
14. Nauta M.J., Separation of uncertainty and variability in quantitative microbial risk assessment. Int. J. Food Microbiol. 57:2000;9-18.
15. J. Neter, W. Wasserman, M.H. Kutner, Applied Linear Statistical Models, Irwin, Boston, 1990.
16. Nicolaï B.M., Van Impe J.F., Predictive food microbiology: a probabilistic approach. Math. Comput. Simul. 42:1996;287-292.
17. Poschet F., Geeraerd A.H., Scheerlinck N., Nicolaï B.M., Van Impe J.F., Monte Carlo analysis as a tool to incorporate variation on experimental data in predictive microbiology. Food Microbiol. 20:2003;285-295.
18. D.A. Ratkowsky, Handbook of Nonlinear Regression Models, Marcel Dekker, New York, 1990.
19. Schaffner D.W., Application of statistical bootstrapping technique to calculate growth rate variance for modelling psychotropic pathogen growth. Int. J. Food Microbiol. 24:1994;97-102.
20. N. Scheerlinck, F. Poschet, J.F. Van Impe, B.M. Nicolaï, Stochastic perturbation analysis of a microbial growth model, in: Proceedings of the Third MathMod, ARGESIM Report no. 15, vol. 2, Vienna, 2000, pp. 619-622.
21. Schlundt J., Comparison of microbiological risk assessment studies published. Int. J. Food Microbiol. 58:2000;197-202.
22. van Gerwen S.J.C., Zwietering M.H., Growth and inactivation models to be used in quantitative risk assessments. J. Food Prot. 61:1998;1541-1549.
23. J.F. Van Impe, K. Bernaerts, A.H. Geeraerd, F. Poschet, K.J. Versyck, Modelling and prediction in an uncertain environment, in: L.M.M. Tijskens, M.L.A.T.M. Hertog, B.M. Nicolaï (Eds.), Food Process Modelling, Woodhead Publishing Limited, Cambridge, 2001, pp. 156-179.