Modeling the potential effects of climate change on water temperature downstream of a shallow reservoir, Lower Madison River, MT

Climatic Change

Volumn 68, Issue 3, 2005, Pages 331-353

  Gooseff, Michael N ^a   Strzepek, Kenneth ^b   Chapra, Steven C ^c  

^a Department of Geology and Geological Engineering   (United States)

^b UCB 450   (United States)

^c Tufts University   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ECOSYSTEMS; HEAT EXCHANGERS; HEAT FLUX; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; RIVERS; SOLAR RADIATION;

FISH HABITATS; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS (GCM); KINEMATIC WAVE FLOW; NUMERICAL STREAM TEMPERATURE MODELS;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

AQUATIC ECOSYSTEM; ATMOSPHERE-HYDROSPHERE INTERACTION; CLIMATE CHANGE; RESERVOIR; WATER TEMPERATURE;

ENNIS LAKE; MADISON RIVER; MONTANA; NORTH AMERICA; UNITED STATES; WESTERN HEMISPHERE; WORLD;

EID: 16444375138     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-005-9076-0     Document Type: Article

References (56)

1. Bowles, D. S., Fread, D. L. and Grenney, W. J.: 1977, 'Coupled dynamic streamflow-temperature models', J. Hydraul. Div., ASCE 103(HY5), 515-530.
2. Brady, D. K., Graves, W. L., and Geyer, J. C.: 1969, Surface Heat Exchange at Power Plant Cooling Lakes, Cooling Water Discharge Project Report, No. 5, Edison Electric Inst. Publication No. 69-901, New York.
3. Bravo, H. R., Drajewski, W. F., and Holly, F. M.: 1993, 'State space model for river temperature prediction', Water Resour. Res. 29, 1457-1466.
4. Brocard, D. N. and Harleman, D. R. F.: 1976, One-dimensional temperature predictions in unsteady flows', J. Hydraul. Div., ASCE, 102(HY3), 227-240.
5. Brown, G. W.: 1969, 'Predicting temperatures of small streams', Water Resour. Res. 5, 68-75.
6. Caissie, D., El-Jabi, N., and Satish, M. G.: 2001, Modelling of maximum daily water temperatures in a small stream using air temperatures', J. Hydrol. 251, 14-28.
7. Chapra S. C.: 1997, Surface Water Quality Modeling, McGraw-Hill, New York.
8. Clark, M. E., Rose, K. A., Levine, D. A., and Hargrove, W. W.: 2001, 'Predicting climate change effects on Appalachian trout: Combining GIS and individual-based modeling', Ecol. App. 11, 161-178.
9. Cubasch, U., Hasselmann, K., Hock, H., Maier-Reimer, E., Mikolajewicz, U., Santer, B. D., and Sausen, R.: 1992, 'Time-dependent greenhouse warming computations with a coupled ocean atmosphere model', Clim. Dynam. 8, 55-69.
10. Eaton, J. G. and Scheller R. M.: 1996, 'effects of climate change on fish thermal habitat in streams of the United States', Linmol. Oceanogr. 41, 1109-1115.
11. EPA: 1995, Ecological Impacts From Climate Change: An Economic Analysis of Freshwater Recreational Fishing, Report by Office of Planning and Evaluation.
12. Fagre, D. B., Comanor, P. L., White, J. D., Hauer F. R., and Running S. W.: 1997, 'Watershed responses to climate change at glacier national park', J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc. 33, 755-765.
13. Ford, D. E. and Stefan, H. G.: 1980, 'Thermal predictions using integral energy model', J. Hydraul. Div., ASCE 103(HY1), 39-55.
14. Gleick, P. H.: 1986, 'Methods for evaluating the regional hydrologic impacts of global climatic changes', J. Hydrol. 88, 97-116.
15. 2 and other trace gases', Clim. Change 10, 137-161.
16. Gleick, P. H.: 1987b, 'The development and testing of a water balance model for climate impact assessment: Modeling the Sacramento basin', Water Resour. Res. 23, 1049-1061.
17. Greco, S., Moss, R. H., Viner, D., and Jenne, R.: 1994, Climate Scenarios and Socioeconomic Projections for IPCC WG II Assessment. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II Report.
18. Hauer, F. R., Baron, J. S., Campbell, D. H., Fausch, K. D., Hostetler, S. W., Leavesley, G. H., Leavitt, P. R., McKnight, D. M., and Stanford, J. A.: 1997, 'Assessment of climate change and freshwater ecosystems of the rocky mountains, USA and Canada', Hydrol. Proc. 11, 903-924.
19. Helsel, D. R., and Hirsch, R. M.: 1992, Statistical Methods in Water Resources, Elsevier, 529 p.
20. Hogg, I. D., Williams, D. D., Eadie, J. M., and Butt, S. A.: 1995, 'The consequences of global warming for stream invertebrates: A field simulation', J. Thermal Biol. 20, 199-206.
21. Jourdonnais, J. H., Walsh, R. P., Pickett, F. J., and Goodman, D.: 1992, 'Structure and calibration strategy for a water temperature model of the lower Madison River, Montana', Rivers, 3, 153-169.
22. Joss, J. and Resele, G.: 1987, 'Mathematical modeling of the heat exchange between a river and the atmosphere', Boundary-Layer Met. 41, 27-40.
23. Keleher, C. J. and Rahel, F. J.: 1996, 'Thermal limits to salmonid distributions in the rocky mountain region and potential habitat loss due to global warming: A Geographic information system (GIS) approach', Trans. Am. Fish. Soc. 125: 1-13.
24. Kim, K. S. and Chapra, S. C.: 1997, 'Temperature model for highly transient shallow streams', J. Hydraul. Eng. 123, 30-40.
25. Lettenmaier, D. P. and Gan, T. Y.: 1990, 'Hydrologic sensitivities of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basin, California, to global warming', Water Resour. Res. 26(1), 69-86.
26. Louge, J., Tiku, P., and Cossins, A. R.: 1995, 'Heat injury and resistance adaptation in fish', J. Therm. Biol. 20, 191-197.
27. Magnuson, J. J., Meisner, J. D., and Hill, D. K.: 1990, 'Potential changes in the thermal habitat of great lakes fish after global climate warming', Trans. Am. Fish. Soc. 119, 254-264.
28. Manabe, S., Spelman, M. J., and Stouffer, R. J.: 1992a, 'Transient responses of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to gradual changes of atmospheric CO2: Part I: Annual mean response', J. Clim. 4, 785-818.
29. Manabe, S., Spelman, M. J., and Stouffer, R. J.: 1992b, 'Transient responses of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to gradual changes of atmospheric CO2: Part II: Seasonal response', J. Clim. 5, 105-126.
30. Matthews, W. J. and Zimmerman, E. G.: 1990, 'potential effects of global warming on native fishes of the Southern Great Plains and Southwest', Fisheries 15, 26-32.
31. Meisner, J. D.: 1990, 'Potential loss of thermal habitat for brook trout, due to climatic warming, in two Southern Ontario streams', Trans. Am. Fish. Soc. 119, 282-291.
32. Mitchell, J. F. B. and Johns, T. J.: 1997, 'Sensitivity of regional and seasonal climate to transient forcing by CO2 and aerosols', J. Climate 10, 245-267.
33. Mohseni, O. and Stefan, H. G.: 1999, 'Stream temperature/air temperature relationship: A physical interpretation', J. Hydrol. 218, 128-141.
34. Mohseni, O., Stefan, H. G., and Eaton, J. G.: 2003, 'Global warming and potential changes in fish habitat in U.S. Streams', Clim. Change 59, 389-409.
35. Mohseni, O., Stefan, H. G., and Erickson, T. R.: 1998, 'A nonlinear regression model for weekly stream temperatures', Water Resour. Res. 34, 2685-2692.
36. Morse, W. L.: 1970, 'Stream temperature prediction model', Water Resour. Res. 6, 290-302.
37. Nemerow, N. L.: 1974, Scientific Stream Pollution Analysis, McGraw-Hill, New York.
38. Rahel, F. J., Keleher, C. J., and Anderson, J. L.: 1996, 'Potential habitat loss and population fragmentation for cold water fish in the North Platte River drainage of the Rocky Mountians: Response to climate warming', Limnol. Oceanogr 41, 1116-1123.
39. Raudkivi, A. J.: 1979, Hydrology, Pergamon, Oxford, England.
40. Reid, S. D., Dockray, J. J., Linton, T. K., McDonald, D. G., and Wood, C. M.: 1997, 'Effects of chronic environmental acidification and a summer global warming scenario: Protein synthesis in juvenile rainbow trout', Can. J. Fish. Aqu. Sci. 54, 2014-2024.
41. Schindler, D. W., Bayley, S. E., Parker, B. R., Beaty, K. G., Cruikshank, D. R., Fee, E. J., Schindler, E. U., and Stainton, M. P.: 1996, 'The effects of climatic warming on the properties of boreal lakes and streams at the experimental lakes area, Northwestern Ontario', Limnol. Oceanogr. 41, 1004-1017.
42. Schindler, D. W.: 1997, 'Widespread effects of climatic warming on freshwater ecosystems in North America', Hydrol. Proc. 11, 1043-1067.
43. Schlesinger, M. E., Andronova, N., Ghanem, A., Malyshev, S., Reichler, T., Rozanov, E., Wang, W., and Yang, F.: 1997, 'Geographical Scenarios of Greenhouse-Gas and Anthropogenic-Sulfate-Aerosol Induced Climate Changes', Climate Research Group, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, pp. 86.
44. Schlesinger, M. E., Malyshev, S., Rozanov, E. V., Yang, F., Andronova, N. G., de Vries, B., Grübler, A., Jiang, K., Masui, T., Morita, T., Penner, J., Pepper, W., Sankovski, A., and Zhang, Y.: 2000, 'Geographical distributions of temperature change for scenarios of greenhouse gas and sulfur dioxide emissions', Technol. Forecast. Social Change 65, 167-193.
45. Sinokrot, B. A. and Stefan, H. G.: 1993, 'Stream temperature dynamics', Water Resour. Res. 29, 2299-2312.
46. Stefan, H. G., Fang, X., and Eaton, J. G.: 2001, 'Simulated fish habitat changes in North American lakes in response to projected climate warming', Trans. Am. Fish. Soc. 130, 459-477.
47. Stefan, H. G., Hondzo, M., and Fang, X.: 1993, 'Lake water quality modeling for projected future climate scenarios', J. Envirion. Qual. 22, 417-431.
48. Stefan, H. G., Hondzo, M., Fang, X., Eaton, J. G., and McCormick, J. H.: 1996, 'Simulated long-term temperature and dissolved oxygen characteristics of lakes in north-central united states and associated fish habitat limits', Limnol. Oceanogr. 41, 1124-1135.
49. Stefan, H. G. and Preud'homme, E. B. 1993, 'Stream temperature estimation from air temperature', Water Resour. Bull. 29, 27-45.
50. Stefan, H. G. and Sinokrot, B. A.: 1993, 'Projected global climate change impact on water temperatures in five north central US streams', Clim. Change 24, 353-381.
51. Thomann, R. V. and Mueller, J. A.: 1987, Principles of Surface Water Quality Modeling and Control, Harper and Rowe, New York, N.Y.
52. Toon, W. M.: 1990, 'Climate change and fish communities: A conceptual framework', Trans. Am. Fish. Soc. 119, 337-352.
53. Van Winkle, W., Rose, K. A., Shuter, B. J., Jager, H. I., and Holcomb, B. D.: 1997, 'Effects of climatic temperature change on growth, survival, and reproduction of rainbow trout: predictions from a simulation model', Can. J. Fish. Aqu. Sci. 54, 2526-2542.
54. Vugts, H. F.: 1974, 'Calculation of temperature variations of small mountain streams', J. Hydrol. 23, 267-278.
55. Webb, B. W. and Nobilis F.: 1997, 'Long term perspective on the nature of the air-water temperature relationship: A case study', Hydrol. Proc. 11, 137-147.
56. Webb, B. W. and Zhang, Y.: 1997, 'Spatial and seasonal variability in the river heat budget', Hydrol. Proc. 11, 79-101.