Forecasting automobile demand for economies in transition: A dynamic simultaneous-equation system approach

Transportation Planning and Technology

Volumn 25, Issue 4, 2002, Pages 311-331

  Abu Eisheh, Sameer A ^a   Mannering, Fred L ^b  

^a AN NAJAH NATIONAL UNIVERSITY   (Palestine)

^b UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON   (United States)

Author keywords

Automobile; Demand forecasting; Dynamic simulation; Market equilibrium; Simultaneous equation modeling; Transition economies

Indexed keywords

COMPUTER SIMULATION; COSTS; FORECASTING; INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; PUBLIC POLICY;

AUTOMOBILE DEMANDS; EMPLOYMENT SHIFTS;

AUTOMOBILES;

FORECASTING METHOD; PLANNING METHOD; TRANSITIONAL ECONOMY; TRANSPORTATION PLANNING; TRAVEL DEMAND;

EID: 1342288059     PISSN: 03081060     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/0308106022000019026     Document Type: Article

References (19)

1. Abu-Eisheh, S.A. et al. (1989) Future Transportation Infrastructure Needs for the Palestinian Population in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Submitted to the United Nations General Assembly through the United Nations Centre for Human Settlements (Habitat) and the Center for Engineering and Planning, Ramallah.
2. Barnett, S., Calika, N.N., Chua, D., Kanaan, O. and Zavadjil, M. (1998) The Economy of the West Bank and Gaza Strip: Recent Experience, Perspectives, and Challenges to Private Sector Development. The International Monetary Fund, Middle East Department.
3. Chow, G.C. (1957) Demand for Automobiles in the United States. Noord-Hollandsche Uitgevers Maatschappij, Amsterdam.
4. Dargay, J. and Gately, D. (1999) "Income's effect on car and vehicle ownership, Worldwide: 1960-2015", Transportation Research A 33, 101-138.
5. Hamed, M. and Abdelwahab, W.M. (1996) "Effect of government policies and vehicle marketing strategies on household vehicle demand and fuel consumption", Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 23(3), 587-594.
6. Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics (1974-1995) Statistical Abstract of Israel, Jerusalem. Various Issues.
7. Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics (1996) National Accounts of Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Area (1968-1993). Publication No. 1012, Jerusalem.
8. Khan, A.M. and Willumsen, L.G. (1986) "Modeling car ownership and use in developing countries", Traffic Engineering and Control 27(11), 554-560.
9. Mannering, F. (1998) Modeling driver decision-making: a review of methodological alternatives. In: Barfield, W. and Dingus, T. (Eds.), Human Factors in Intelligent Transportation Systems. Lawrence Erlbaum, Mahwah, NJ.
10. Mannering, F. and Train, K. (1985) "Recent Directions in Automobile Demand Modeling", Transportation Research B 19(4), 264-274.
11. Mannering, F. and Winston, C. (1987) U.S. automobile market demand. Blind Intersection: Policy and the Automobile Industry, pp. 36-60. Brookings Institution, Washington D.C.
12. Manski, C.F. and Sherman, L. (1980) "Forecasting equilibrium motor vehicle holdings by means of disaggregate models", Transportation Research Record 764, 96-103.
13. Nerlove, M. (1957) "A note on long-run automobile demand", Journal of Marketing 22(1), 57-64.
14. Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (1996-1999) The Status Report. Various Issues, Ramallah.
15. Prevedouros, P.D. and An, P. (1998) "Automobile ownership in Asian countries: historical trends and forecasts", ITE Journal 68(4 , 24-29.
16. Romilly, P., Song, H. and Liu, X. (1998) "Modelling and forecasting car ownership in Britain", Transport Economics and Policy 32(2), 165-185.
17. Suits, D.B. (1958) "The demand for new automobiles in the United States", Review of Economics and Statistics 40(3), 273-280.
18. Tanner, J.C. (1977) Car Ownership Trends and Forecasts. TRRL Laboratory Report 799. Transport and Road Research Laboratory, Crowthorne.
19. Train, K. (1986) Qualitative Choice Analysis: Theory, Econometrics, and an Application to Automobile Demand. MIT Press, Cambridge.