Weather forecasting by humans - Heuristics and decision making

Weather and Forecasting

Volumn 19, Issue 6, 2004, Pages 01115-1126

  Doswell III, Charles A ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

COGNITIVE SYSTEMS; DECISION MAKING; HEURISTIC METHODS; HUMAN REACTION TIME; PSYCHOLOGY COMPUTING;

HUMAN APPROACH; HUMAN COGNITION; MULTIDISCIPLINARY APPROACH;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

DECISION MAKING; HEURISTICS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 11344291147     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/waf-821.1     Document Type: Article

References (54)

1. Brooks, H. E., 2004: Tornado-warning performance in the past and the future: A perspective from signal detection theory. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 837-843.
2. Brooks, H. E., and C. A. Doswell III, 1996: A comparison of measures-oriented and distributions-oriented approaches to forecast verification. Wea. Forecasting, 11, 288-303.
3. Buizza, R., and T. N. Palmer, 1998: Impact of ensemble size on the skill and the potential skill of an ensemble prediction system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 2503-2518.
4. Buizza, R., M. Miller, and T. N. Palmer, 1999: Stochastic simulation of model uncertainties. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 2887-2908.
5. Charba, J. P., and W. H. Klein, 1980: Skill in precipitation forecasting in the National Weather Service. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 61, 1546-1555.
6. Doswell, C. A., III, 1985: Storm scale analysis. Vol. II, The operational meteorology of convective weather, NOAA Tech. Memo. ERL ESG-15, 240 pp.
7. Doswell, C. A., III, 1986a: Short range forecasting. Mesoscale Meteorology and Forecasting, P. Ray, Ed., Amer. Meteor. Soc., 689-719.
8. Doswell, C. A., III, 1986b: The human element in weather forecasting. Natl. Wea. Dig., 11 (2), 6-17.
9. Doswell, C. A., III, and R. A. Maddox, 1986: The role of diagnosis in weather forecasting. Preprints, 11th Conf. on Weather Forecasting and Analysis, Kansas City, MO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 177-182.
10. Doswell, C. A., III, and R. A. Maddox, 1996: A review of student performance on pretests given at the flash flood forecasting course. Preprints, 13th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Vienna, VA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 403-410.
11. Doswell, C. A., III, R. Davies Jones, and D. L. Keller, 1990: On summary measures of skill in rare event forecasting based on contingency tables. Wea. Forecasting, 5, 576-585.
12. Doswell, C. A., III, D. V. Baker, and C. A. Liles, 2002: Recognition of negative mesoscale factors for severe weather potential: A case study. Wea. Forecasting, 17, 937-954.
13. Evans, J. S., and C. A. Doswell III, 2001: Examination of derecho environments using proximity soundings. Wea. Forecasting, 16, 329-342.
14. Fischhoff, B., 1982a: For those condemned to study the past: Heuristics and biases in hindsight. Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 335-351.
15. Fischhoff, B., 1982b: Debiasing. Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 422-444.
16. Hahn, B. B., E. Rall, and D. W. Klinger, 2002: Cognitive analysis of the warning forecaster task. Klein Associates, Inc., Final Rep. RA1330-02-SE-0280, NOAA/NWS Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services, 26 pp. [Available from Klein Associates, Inc., 1750 Commerce Center Blvd North, Fairborn, OH 45324-6362.]
17. Hammond, K. R., 1996: Human Judgment and Social Policy. Oxford University Press, 436 pp.
18. Johns, R. H., and C. A. Doswell III, 1992: Severe local storms forecasting. Wea. Forecasting, 7, 588-612.
19. Joliffe, I. T., and D. B. Stephenson, Eds., 2003: Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science. Wiley, 254 pp.
20. Kahneman, D., and A. Tversky, 1972: Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness. Cognit. Psychol., 3, 430-454.
21. Kahneman, D., and A. Tversky, 1973: On the psychology of prediction. Psychol. Rev., 80, 237-251.
22. Kahneman, D., P. Slovic, and A. Tversky, Eds., 1982: Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge University Press, 555 pp.
23. Kay, M. P., and H. E. Brooks, 2000: Verification of probabilistic severe storm forecasts at the SPC. Preprints, 20th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Orlando, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 285-288.
24. Lichtenstein, S., B. Fischhoff, and L. D. Phillips, 1982: Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980. Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 306-334.
25. Lorenz, E. N., 1963: Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci. 20, 130-141.
26. Lusk, C. M., T. R. Stewart, K. R. Hammond, and R. J. Potts, 1990: Judgment and decision making in dynamic tasks: The case of forecasting the microburst. Wea. Forecasting, 5, 627-639.
27. Mason, I. B., 1982: A model for assessment of weather forecasts. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 30, 291-203.
28. Mass, C., 1991: Synoptic frontal analysis. Time for a reassessment? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 72, 348-363.
29. Moller, A. R., 2001: Severe local storms forecasting. Severe Convective Storms, Meteor. Monogr., No. 50, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 433-480.
30. Murphy, A. H., 1985: Probabilistic weather forecasting. Probability, Statistics, and Decision Making in the Atmospheric Sciences, A. H. Murphy and R. Katz, Eds., Westview Press, 337-377.
31. Murphy, A. H., 1991a: Probabilities, odds, and forecasting rare events. Wea. Forecasting, 6, 302-307.
32. Murphy, A. H., 1991b: Forecast verification: Its complexity and dimensionality. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 1590-1601.
33. Murphy, A. H., 1993: What is a good forecast? An essay on the nature of goodness in weather forecasting. Wea. Forecasting, 8, 281-293.
34. Murphy, A. H., 1997: Forecast verification. Economic Value of Weather and Weather Forecasts, R. W. Katz and A. H. Murphy, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 19-74.
35. Murphy, A. H., and R. L. Winkler, 1977: Can weather forecasters formulate reliable probability forecasts of precipitation and temperature? Natl. Wea. Dig., 2, 2-9.
36. Murphy, A. H., and R. L. Winkler, 1982: Subjective probabilistic tornado forecasts: Some experimental results. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 1288-1297.
37. Murphy, A. H., and R. L. Winkler, 1987: A general framework for forecast verification. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1330-1338.
38. Nebeker, F., 1995: Calculating the Weather: Meteorology in the 20th Century. Academic Press, 251 pp.
39. Oskamp, S., 1965: Overconfidence in case-study judgments. J. Consult. Psychol., 29, 261-265.
40. Panofsky, H. A., and G. W. Brier, 1958: Some Applications of Statistics to Meteorology. The Pennsylvania State University, 224 pp.
41. Petterssen, S., 1956: Weather Analysis and Forecasting. 2d ed. McGraw-Hill, 428 pp.
42. Roebber, P. J., and L. F. Bosart, 1996: The contributions of education and experience to forecast skill. Wea. Forecasting, 11, 21-40.
43. Rouse, W. B., and N. M. Morris, 1986: On looking into the black box: Prospects and limits in the search for mental models. Psychol. Bull. 100, 349-363.
44. Sanders, F., 1963: On subjective probability forecasting. J. Appl. Meteor., 2, 191-201.
45. Schwerdtfeger, W., 1981: Comments on Tor Bergeron's contributions to synoptic meteorology. Pure Appl. Geophys., 119, 501-509.
46. Stensrud D. J., H. E. Brooks, J. Du, M. S. Tracton, and E. Rogers, 1999: Using ensembles for short-range forecasting. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 433-446.
47. Stewart, T. R., 2000: Uncertainty, judgment, and error in prediction. Science, Decision Making and the Future of Nature, D. Sarewitz, R. A. Pielke, and R. Bierly, Eds., Island Press, 41-57.
48. Stewart, T. R., 2001: Improving reliability of judgmental forecasts. Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners J. Armstrong, Ed., Kluwer, 81-106.
49. Stewart, T. R., W. R. Moninger, K. F. Heideman, and P. Reagan-Cirincione, 1992: Effect of improved information on the components of skill in weather forecasting. Organiz. Behav. Hum. Decis. Proc., 53, 107-134.
50. Stewart, T. R., P. R. Roebber, and L. F. Bosart, 1997: The importance of the task in analyzing expert judgment. Organiz. Behav. Hum. Decis. Proc., 69, 205-219.
51. Uccellini, L. W., S. F. Corfidi, N. W. Junker, P. J. Kocin, and D. A. Olson, 1992: Report on the surface analysis workshop at the National Meteorological Center 25-28 March 1991. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 73, 459-471.
52. Vescio, M. D., and R. L. Thompson, 2001: Subjective tornado probability forecasts in severe weather watches. Wea. Forecasting, 16, 192-195.
53. Wikle, C. K., and C. J. Anderson, 2003: Climatological analysis of tornado report counts using a hierarchical Baysian spatiotemporal model. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 9005, doi:10.1029/ 2002JD002806.
54. Wilks, D. S., 1995: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences: An Introduction. Academic Press, 467 pp.