Democracy and Victory Fair Fights or Food Fights?

International Security

Volumn 28, Issue 1, 2003, Pages 180-194

  Desch, Michael C ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF KENTUCKY   (United States)

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EID: 0141837157     PISSN: 01622889     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1162/016228803322428036     Document Type: Review

References (74)

1. Michael C. Desch, "Democracy and Victory: Why Regime Type Hardly Matters," International Security, Vol. 27, No. 2 (Fall 2002), pp. 5-47. Subsequent references to this article and the rejoinders appear parenthetically in the text.
2. Contrary to Lake's claims, multiple case studies can be used to test probabilistic theories because they provide a great deal of information. Not only does this make them an efficient means of testing theories, but it also makes it possible to determine whether or not particular cases are outliers.
3. One exception is the "democratic peace," whose proponents treat it as "the closest thing we have to an empirical law in the study of international relations." See Jack S. Levy, "Domestic Politics and War," in Robert I. Rotberg and Theodore K. Rabb, eds., The Origin and Prevention of Major Wars (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1989), p. 88; and James Lee Ray, "Wars between Democracies: Rare or Non-existent?" International Interactions, Vol. 18, No. 3 (Spring 1988), pp. 251-276.
4. One exception is the "democratic peace," whose proponents treat it as "the closest thing we have to an empirical law in the study of international relations." See Jack S. Levy, "Domestic Politics and War," in Robert I. Rotberg and Theodore K. Rabb, eds., The Origin and Prevention of Major Wars (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1989), p. 88; and James Lee Ray, "Wars between Democracies: Rare or Non-existent?" International Interactions, Vol. 18, No. 3 (Spring 1988), pp. 251-276.
5. Dan Reiter and Allan C. Stam III, Democracies at War (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2002), pp. 197, 205 (emphasis added).
6. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (Mason, Ohio: Southwestern College Publishing, 2000), p. 131.
7. Gary King, Robert O. Keohane, and Sidney Verba, Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1994), pp. 168-184.
8. For discussion of the similarities of the two approaches, see Alan Agresti and Barbara Finlay, Statistical Methods for Social Sciences, 3d ed. (Upper Saddle, N.J.: Prentice Hall, 1999), pp. 359-362.
9. David A. Lake and Matthew A. Baum, "The Invisible Hand of Democracy: Political Control and the Provision of Public Services," Comparative Political Studies, Vol. 34, No. 6 (August 2001), pp. 587-621.
10. Reiter and Stam, Democracies at War, pp. 114-143.
11. Ibid., pp. 20, 138.
12. The elasticity for democracy*initiation is -0.0486938; for the state's capabilities, it is 0.9587111; and for its allies' capabilities, it is 0.6250279.
13. I arrive at slightly different numbers than Reiter and Stam, because in Appendix 2.2 they list the United States as initiating the European phase of World War II, but in my copy of their data set they do not. Ibid., pp. 52-57.
14. Michael Clodfelter, Warfare and Armed Conflicts: A Statistical Reference to Casualty and Other Figures, 1618-1991 (Jefferson, N.C.: McFarland, 1992), p. 643.
15. George Childs Kohn, Dictionary of Wars, rev. ed. (New York: Facts on File, 1999), p. 264; and R. Ernest Dupuy and Trevor N. Dupuy, The Harper Encyclopedia of Military History: From 3500 B.C. to the Present (New York: HarperCollins, 1993), p. 1091.
16. George Childs Kohn, Dictionary of Wars, rev. ed. (New York: Facts on File, 1999), p. 264; and R. Ernest Dupuy and Trevor N. Dupuy, The Harper Encyclopedia of Military History: From 3500 B.C. to the Present (New York: HarperCollins, 1993), p. 1091.
17. Reiter and Stam, Democracies at War, pp. 10, 19-20, 21, 23, 144, 146, 162.
18. Thomas A. Bailey, A Diplomatic History of the American People, 10th ed. (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1970), p. 257; and Robert H. Ferrell, American Diplomacy: A History (New York: W.W. Norton, 1975), p. 190.
19. Thomas A. Bailey, A Diplomatic History of the American People, 10th ed. (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1970), p. 257; and Robert H. Ferrell, American Diplomacy: A History (New York: W.W. Norton, 1975), p. 190.
20. Bailey, A Diplomatic History of the American People, p. 256.
21. John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: W.W. Norton, 2001), pp. 242-244.
22. C.M. Woodhouse, Modern Greece: A Short History (London: Faber and Faber, 1986), p. 193.
23. Richard M. Watt, Bitter Glory: Poland and Its Fate, 1918-1939 (New York: Hippocrene, 1982), p. 105. Also cf. Serge Michiel Shewchuk, "The Russo-Polish War of 1920," Ph.D. dissertation, University of Maryland, 1966, p. 146; Adam Zamoyski, The Battle for the Marchlands (New York: Columbia University Press, 1981), p. 6; and Viscount D'Abernon, The Eighteenth Decisive Battle of the World (London: Hodder and Stoughton, 1931), p. 39.
24. Richard M. Watt, Bitter Glory: Poland and Its Fate, 1918-1939 (New York: Hippocrene, 1982), p. 105. Also cf. Serge Michiel Shewchuk, "The Russo-Polish War of 1920," Ph.D. dissertation, University of Maryland, 1966, p. 146; Adam Zamoyski, The Battle for the Marchlands (New York: Columbia University Press, 1981), p. 6; and Viscount D'Abernon, The Eighteenth Decisive Battle of the World (London: Hodder and Stoughton, 1931), p. 39.
25. Richard M. Watt, Bitter Glory: Poland and Its Fate, 1918-1939 (New York: Hippocrene, 1982), p. 105. Also cf. Serge Michiel Shewchuk, "The Russo-Polish War of 1920," Ph.D. dissertation, University of Maryland, 1966, p. 146; Adam Zamoyski, The Battle for the Marchlands (New York: Columbia University Press, 1981), p. 6; and Viscount D'Abernon, The Eighteenth Decisive Battle of the World (London: Hodder and Stoughton, 1931), p. 39.
26. Richard M. Watt, Bitter Glory: Poland and Its Fate, 1918-1939 (New York: Hippocrene, 1982), p. 105. Also cf. Serge Michiel Shewchuk, "The Russo-Polish War of 1920," Ph.D. dissertation, University of Maryland, 1966, p. 146; Adam Zamoyski, The Battle for the Marchlands (New York: Columbia University Press, 1981), p. 6; and Viscount D'Abernon, The Eighteenth Decisive Battle of the World (London: Hodder and Stoughton, 1931), p. 39.
27. Watt, Bitter Glory, p. 125; Michael Palij, The Ukrainian-Polish Defensive Alliance, 1919-1921: An Aspect of the Ukrainian Revolution (Edmonton: Canadian Institute of Ukrainian Studies Press, 1995), p. 118; Norman Davies, White Eagle, Red Star: The Polish-Soviet War, 1919-20 (New York: St. Martin's, 1972), p. 31; an Robert Szymczak, "Bolshevik Wave Breaks at Warsaw," Military History, Vol. 11, No. 6 (February 1995), p. 56.
28. Watt, Bitter Glory, p. 125; Michael Palij, The Ukrainian-Polish Defensive Alliance, 1919-1921: An Aspect of the Ukrainian Revolution (Edmonton: Canadian Institute of Ukrainian Studies Press, 1995), p. 118; Norman Davies, White Eagle, Red Star: The Polish-Soviet War, 1919-20 (New York: St. Martin's, 1972), p. 31; an Robert Szymczak, "Bolshevik Wave Breaks at Warsaw," Military History, Vol. 11, No. 6 (February 1995), p. 56.
29. Watt, Bitter Glory, p. 125; Michael Palij, The Ukrainian-Polish Defensive Alliance, 1919-1921: An Aspect of the Ukrainian Revolution (Edmonton: Canadian Institute of Ukrainian Studies Press, 1995), p. 118; Norman Davies, White Eagle, Red Star: The Polish-Soviet War, 1919-20 (New York: St. Martin's, 1972), p. 31; an Robert Szymczak, "Bolshevik Wave Breaks at Warsaw," Military History, Vol. 11, No. 6 (February 1995), p. 56.
30. Watt, Bitter Glory, p. 125; Michael Palij, The Ukrainian-Polish Defensive Alliance, 1919-1921: An Aspect of the Ukrainian Revolution (Edmonton: Canadian Institute of Ukrainian Studies Press, 1995), p. 118; Norman Davies, White Eagle, Red Star: The Polish-Soviet War, 1919-20 (New York: St. Martin's, 1972), p. 31; an Robert Szymczak, "Bolshevik Wave Breaks at Warsaw," Military History, Vol. 11, No. 6 (February 1995), p. 56.
31. Quoted in Watt, Bitter Glory, p. 99.
32. Zygmunt J. Gasiorowski, "Joseph Pilsudski in the Light of British Reports," Slavonic and East European Review, Vol. 50, No. 121 (1972), p. 566.
33. Hugh Thomas, Suez (New York: Harper and Row, 1966), p. 16; and Avner Yaniv and Robert J. Lieber, "Personal Whim or Strategic Imperative? The Israeli invasion of Lebanon," International Security, Vol. 8, No. 2 (Fall 1983), p. 140.
34. Hugh Thomas, Suez (New York: Harper and Row, 1966), p. 16; and Avner Yaniv and Robert J. Lieber, "Personal Whim or Strategic Imperative? The Israeli invasion of Lebanon," International Security, Vol. 8, No. 2 (Fall 1983), p. 140.
35. Michael Brecher, Decisions in Israel's Foreign Policy (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1975), pp. 232-234; and Zeev Schiff, A History of the Israeli Army: 1847 to the Present (New York: Macmillan, 1985), p. 93.
36. Michael Brecher, Decisions in Israel's Foreign Policy (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1975), pp. 232-234; and Zeev Schiff, A History of the Israeli Army: 1847 to the Present (New York: Macmillan, 1985), p. 93.
37. Howard M. Sachar, A History of Israel: From the Rise of Zionism to Our Time, 2d ed. (New York: Knopf, 1996), p. 478; and Avi Shlaim, The Iron Wall: Israel and the Arab World (New York: W.W. Norton, 2001), p. 149
38. Howard M. Sachar, A History of Israel: From the Rise of Zionism to Our Time, 2d ed. (New York: Knopf, 1996), p. 478; and Avi Shlaim, The Iron Wall: Israel and the Arab World (New York: W.W. Norton, 2001), p. 149
39. Moshe Sharett, quoted in Shlaim, The Iron Wall, p. 150.
40. Ibid., pp. 183-185; Sachar, A History of Israel, pp. 513-514; and Thomas Baylisss, How Israel Was Won: A Concise History of the Arab-Israeli Conflict (Lanham, Md.: Lexington, 1999), p. 125.
41. Ibid., pp. 183-185; Sachar, A History of Israel, pp. 513-514; and Thomas Baylisss, How Israel Was Won: A Concise History of the Arab-Israeli Conflict (Lanham, Md.: Lexington, 1999), p. 125.
42. Ibid., pp. 183-185; Sachar, A History of Israel, pp. 513-514; and Thomas Baylisss, How Israel Was Won: A Concise History of the Arab-Israeli Conflict (Lanham, Md.: Lexington, 1999), p. 125.
43. Brecher, Decisions in Israel's Foreign Policy, p. 65.
44. Zeev Schiff and Ehud Ya'ari, Israel's Lebanon War (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1984), pp. 34, 55, 57, 127, 163; Schiff, A History of the Israeli Army, pp. 239-240; Martin Gilbert, Israel: A History (New York: William Morrow, 1998), p. 504; Lieber and Yaniv, "Personal Whim or Strategic Imperative?" p. 137; and Trevor N. Dupuy and Paul Martell, Flawed Victory: The Arab-Israeli Conflict and the 1982 War in Lebanon (Fairfax, Va.: HERO Books, 1986), pp. 60, 148.
45. Zeev Schiff and Ehud Ya'ari, Israel's Lebanon War (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1984), pp. 34, 55, 57, 127, 163; Schiff, A History of the Israeli Army, pp. 239-240; Martin Gilbert, Israel: A History (New York: William Morrow, 1998), p. 504; Lieber and Yaniv, "Personal Whim or Strategic Imperative?" p. 137; and Trevor N. Dupuy and Paul Martell, Flawed Victory: The Arab-Israeli Conflict and the 1982 War in Lebanon (Fairfax, Va.: HERO Books, 1986), pp. 60, 148.
46. Zeev Schiff and Ehud Ya'ari, Israel's Lebanon War (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1984), pp. 34, 55, 57, 127, 163; Schiff, A History of the Israeli Army, pp. 239-240; Martin Gilbert, Israel: A History (New York: William Morrow, 1998), p. 504; Lieber and Yaniv, "Personal Whim or Strategic Imperative?" p. 137; and Trevor N. Dupuy and Paul Martell, Flawed Victory: The Arab-Israeli Conflict and the 1982 War in Lebanon (Fairfax, Va.: HERO Books, 1986), pp. 60, 148.
47. Zeev Schiff and Ehud Ya'ari, Israel's Lebanon War (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1984), pp. 34, 55, 57, 127, 163; Schiff, A History of the Israeli Army, pp. 239-240; Martin Gilbert, Israel: A History (New York: William Morrow, 1998), p. 504; Lieber and Yaniv, "Personal Whim or Strategic Imperative?" p. 137; and Trevor N. Dupuy and Paul Martell, Flawed Victory: The Arab-Israeli Conflict and the 1982 War in Lebanon (Fairfax, Va.: HERO Books, 1986), pp. 60, 148.
48. Zeev Schiff and Ehud Ya'ari, Israel's Lebanon War (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1984), pp. 34, 55, 57, 127, 163; Schiff, A History of the Israeli Army, pp. 239-240; Martin Gilbert, Israel: A History (New York: William Morrow, 1998), p. 504; Lieber and Yaniv, "Personal Whim or Strategic Imperative?" p. 137; and Trevor N. Dupuy and Paul Martell, Flawed Victory: The Arab-Israeli Conflict and the 1982 War in Lebanon (Fairfax, Va.: HERO Books, 1986), pp. 60, 148.
49. Schiff and Ya'ariv, Israel's Lebanon War, pp. 33, 39, 41, 58, 97, 100, 101, 103, 113, 266-268, 303, 304; Shlaim, The Iron Wall, p. 397; Schiff, A History of the Israeli Army, p. 246; Richard Gabriel, Operation Peace for Galilee: The Israeli-PLO War in Lebanon (New York: Hill and Wang, 1984), p. 68; and Dupuy and Martell, Flawed Victory, pp. 96, 142.
50. Schiff and Ya'ariv, Israel's Lebanon War, pp. 33, 39, 41, 58, 97, 100, 101, 103, 113, 266-268, 303, 304; Shlaim, The Iron Wall, p. 397; Schiff, A History of the Israeli Army, p. 246; Richard Gabriel, Operation Peace for Galilee: The Israeli-PLO War in Lebanon (New York: Hill and Wang, 1984), p. 68; and Dupuy and Martell, Flawed Victory, pp. 96, 142.
51. Schiff and Ya'ariv, Israel's Lebanon War, pp. 33, 39, 41, 58, 97, 100, 101, 103, 113, 266-268, 303, 304; Shlaim, The Iron Wall, p. 397; Schiff, A History of the Israeli Army, p. 246; Richard Gabriel, Operation Peace for Galilee: The Israeli-PLO War in Lebanon (New York: Hill and Wang, 1984), p. 68; and Dupuy and Martell, Flawed Victory, pp. 96, 142.
52. Schiff and Ya'ariv, Israel's Lebanon War, pp. 33, 39, 41, 58, 97, 100, 101, 103, 113, 266-268, 303, 304; Shlaim, The Iron Wall, p. 397; Schiff, A History of the Israeli Army, p. 246; Richard Gabriel, Operation Peace for Galilee: The Israeli-PLO War in Lebanon (New York: Hill and Wang, 1984), p. 68; and Dupuy and Martell, Flawed Victory, pp. 96, 142.
53. Schiff and Ya'ariv, Israel's Lebanon War, pp. 33, 39, 41, 58, 97, 100, 101, 103, 113, 266-268, 303, 304; Shlaim, The Iron Wall, p. 397; Schiff, A History of the Israeli Army, p. 246; Richard Gabriel, Operation Peace for Galilee: The Israeli-PLO War in Lebanon (New York: Hill and Wang, 1984), p. 68; and Dupuy and Martell, Flawed Victory, pp. 96, 142.
54. Schiff and Ya'ariv, Israel's Lebanon War, pp. 43, 164, 181, 212-213; and Gabriel, Operation Peace for Galilee, p. 158.
55. Schiff and Ya'ariv, Israel's Lebanon War, pp. 43, 164, 181, 212-213; and Gabriel, Operation Peace for Galilee, p. 158.
56. Schiff and Ya'ariv, Israel's Lebanon War, p. 293; Benny Morris, Righteous Victims: A History of the Zionist-Arab Conflict, 1881-1999 (New York: Knopf, 1999), p. 590; Anthony H. Cordesman, The Arab-Israeli Military Balance and the Art of Operations (Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute, 1987), pp. 55-56; and Dupuy and Martell, Flawed Victory, p. 154.
57. Schiff and Ya'ariv, Israel's Lebanon War, p. 293; Benny Morris, Righteous Victims: A History of the Zionist-Arab Conflict, 1881-1999 (New York: Knopf, 1999), p. 590; Anthony H. Cordesman, The Arab-Israeli Military Balance and the Art of Operations (Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute, 1987), pp. 55-56; and Dupuy and Martell, Flawed Victory, p. 154.
58. Schiff and Ya'ariv, Israel's Lebanon War, p. 293; Benny Morris, Righteous Victims: A History of the Zionist-Arab Conflict, 1881-1999 (New York: Knopf, 1999), p. 590; Anthony H. Cordesman, The Arab-Israeli Military Balance and the Art of Operations (Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute, 1987), pp. 55-56; and Dupuy and Martell, Flawed Victory, p. 154.
59. Schiff and Ya'ariv, Israel's Lebanon War, p. 293; Benny Morris, Righteous Victims: A History of the Zionist-Arab Conflict, 1881-1999 (New York: Knopf, 1999), p. 590; Anthony H. Cordesman, The Arab-Israeli Military Balance and the Art of Operations (Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute, 1987), pp. 55-56; and Dupuy and Martell, Flawed Victory, p. 154.
60. Schiff and Ya'ariv, Israel's Lebanon War, p. 284; Sachar, A History of Israel, p. 920; and Shlaim, The Iron Wall, p. 419.
61. Schiff and Ya'ariv, Israel's Lebanon War, p. 284; Sachar, A History of Israel, p. 920; and Shlaim, The Iron Wall, p. 419.
62. Schiff and Ya'ariv, Israel's Lebanon War, p. 284; Sachar, A History of Israel, p. 920; and Shlaim, The Iron Wall, p. 419.
63. Shlaim, The Iron Wall, p. 417; and Schiff, A History of the Israeli Army, pp. 238, 240.
64. Shlaim, The Iron Wall, p. 417; and Schiff, A History of the Israeli Army, pp. 238, 240.
65. Schiff and Ya'ariv, Israel's Lebanon War, pp. 25, 34, 39, 220; Sachar, A History of Israel, pp. 900, 913, 916, 920; and Dupuy and Martell, Flawed Victory, p. 15.
66. Schiff and Ya'ariv, Israel's Lebanon War, pp. 25, 34, 39, 220; Sachar, A History of Israel, pp. 900, 913, 916, 920; and Dupuy and Martell, Flawed Victory, p. 15.
67. Schiff and Ya'ariv, Israel's Lebanon War, pp. 25, 34, 39, 220; Sachar, A History of Israel, pp. 900, 913, 916, 920; and Dupuy and Martell, Flawed Victory, p. 15.
68. Schiff and Ya'airv, Israel's Lebanon War, p. 230.
69. Reiter and Stam, Democracies at War, pp. 12-13. John J. Mearsheimer, Conventional Deterrence (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1983), examines cases of both democracies (Britain, France, India, and Israel) and nondemocracies (Egypt, Germany, North Korea, the Soviet Union, and Vietnam) that started wars only when they thought they had a high chance of victory.
70. Reiter and Stam, Democracies at War, pp. 12-13. John J. Mearsheimer, Conventional Deterrence (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1983), examines cases of both democracies (Britain, France, India, and Israel) and nondemocracies (Egypt, Germany, North Korea, the Soviet Union, and Vietnam) that started wars only when they thought they had a high chance of victory.
71. Reiter and Stam, Democracies at War, p. 105.
72. Bernard I. Finel and Kristin M. Lord, "The Surprising Logic of Transparency," International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 43, No. 2 (June 1999), pp. 315-339.
73. Shlaim, The Iron Wall, pp. 162-185.
74. Richard Overy, Russia's War: A History of the Soviet War Effort, 1941-1945 (Harmondsworth, U.K.: Penguin, 1997), p. xi.