Forecast skill of targeted observations: A singular-vector-based diagnostic

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Volumn 60, Issue 16, 2003, Pages 1927-1940

  Cardinali, C ^a   Buizza, R ^a  

^a EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

LINEAR SYSTEMS; PERTURBATION TECHNIQUES; VECTORS;

PSEUDOINVERSE DIRECTIONS;

ATMOSPHERICS;

STORM TRACK; TROPICAL CYCLONE; WEATHER FORECASTING;

PACIFIC OCEAN;

EID: 0141571526     PISSN: 00224928     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(2003)060<1927:FSOTOA>2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (38)

1. Baker, N. L., and R. Daley, 2000: The observation-targeting problem. Quart, J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 1431-1454.
2. Barkmeijer, J., R. Buizza, and T. N. Palmer, 1999: 3D-Var Hessian singular vectors and their potential use in the ECWMF Ensemble Prediction System. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 2333-2351.
3. Bishop, C., and Z. Toth, 1999: Ensemble transformation and adaptive observations. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 1748-1765.
4. Bishop, C., B. J. Etherton, and S. J. Majumdar, 2001: Adaptive sampling with the ensemble transform Kalman filter. Part I: Theoretical aspects. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 420-436.
5. Buizza, R., 1994: Sensitivity of optimal unstable structures. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 120, 429-451.
6. Buizza, R., and T. N. Palmer, 1995: The singular vector structure of the atmospheric global circulation. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 1434-1456.
7. Buizza, R., and A. Montani, 1999: Targeting observations using singular vectors. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 2965-2985.
8. Buizza, R., R. Gelaro, F. Molteni and T. N. Palmer, 1997: The impact of increased resolution on predictability studies with singular vectors. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 123, 1007-1033.
9. Doerenbecher, A., and T. Bergot, 2001: Sensitivity to observations applied to FASTEX cases. Nonlinear Process Geophys., 8, 467-481.
10. Ehrendorfer, M., and J. J. Tribbia, 1997: Optimal prediction of forecast error covariances using singular vectors. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 286-313.
11. Emanuel, K., and Coauthors, 1995: Report of the first prospectus development team of the U.S. Weather Research Program to NOAA and the NSF. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76, 1194-1208.
12. Gelaro, R., R. Buizza, T. N. Palmer, and E. Klinker, 1998: Sensitivity analysis of forecast error and the construction of optimal perturbations using singulars vectors. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 1012-1037.
13. Gelaro, R., R. H. Langland, G. D. Rohaly, and T. E. Rosmond, 1999: An assessment of the singular-vectors approach to targeted observing using the FASTEX data set. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 3299-3327.
14. Gelaro, R., T. E. Rosmond, and R. Daley, 2002: Singular vector calculations with an analysis error variance metric. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 1166-1186.
15. Gilmour. I., L. A. Smith, and R. Buizza, 2001: Linear regime duration: Is 24 hours a long time in synoptic weather forecasting? J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 3525-3539.
16. Jaubert, G., C. Piriou, S. M. Loehrer, A. Petitpa, and J. M. Moore, 1999: Development and quality control of the FASTEX data archive. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 3165-3188.
17. Klinker, E., F. Rabier, G. Kelly, and J.-F. Mahfouf, 2000: The ECMWF operational implementation of four-dimensional variational assimilation. III: Experimental results and diagnostics with operational configuration. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 1191-1218.
18. Langland, R. H., and G. D. Rohaly, 1996: Adjoint-based targeting of observations for FASTEX cyclones. Preprints, Seventh Conf. on Mesoscale Processes, Reading, United Kingdom, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 369-371.
19. Langland, R. H., R. Gelaro, G. D. Rohaly, and M. A. Shapiro, 1999: Targeted observations in FASTEX: Adjoint based targeting procedures and data impact experiments in IOP17 and IOP18. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 3241-3270.
20. Leutbecker M., J. Barkmeijer, T. N. Palmer, and A. J. Thorpe, 2002: Potential improvement to forecasts of two severe storms using targeted observations. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 128, 1641-1670.
21. Mahfouf, J. F., 1999: Influence of physical processes on the tangent linear approximation. Tellus, 51A, 147-166.
22. Mahfouf, J. F., and F. Rabier, 2000: The ECMWF operational implementation of four dimensional variational assimilation. Part II: Experimental results with improved physics. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 1171-1190.
23. Majumdar, S. J., C. Bishop, R. Buizza, and R. Gelaro, 2002: A comparison of ETKF targeting guidance with ECMWF and NRL TESVs targeting guidance. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 128, 2527-2550.
24. Molenti, F., R. Buizza, T. N. Palmer, and T. Petroliagis, 1996: The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System: Methodology and validation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 73-119.
25. Montani, A., A. J. Thorpe, R. Buizza. and P. Unden, 1999: Forecast skill of the ECMWF model using targeted observations during FASTEX Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 3219-3240.
26. Palmer, T. N., R. Gelaro, J. Barkmeijer, and R. Buizza, 1998: Singular vectors, metrics, and adaptive observations. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 633-653.
27. Pu, Z.-X., and E. Kalnay, 1999: Targeting observations with the quasi-inverse linear and adjoint NCEP global models: Performance during FASTEX. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 3329-3337.
28. Pu, Z.-X., E. Kalnay, J. Sela, and I. Szunyogh, 1997: Sensitivity of forecast errors of initial conditions with a quasi-inverse linear method. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 2479-2503.
29. Rabier, F., E. Klinker, P. Courtier, and A. Hollingsworth, 1996: Sensitivity of forecast errors to initial conditions. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor, Soc., 122, 121-150.
30. Rabier, F., H. Järvinen, E. Klinker, J.-F Mahfouf, and A. Simmons, 2000: The ECMWF operational implementation of four dimensional variational assimilation. Part I: Experimental results with simplified physics. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 1143-1170.
31. Ralph, F. M., and Coauthors, 1998: The use of tropospheric profiling in CALJET. Preprints. Fourth Int. Symp. on Tropospheric Profiling: Needs and Technologies. Snowmass, CO, University of Colorado, 258-260.
32. Snyder, C., 1996: Summary of an informal workshop on adaptive observations and FASTEX. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 953-961.
33. Szunyogh, I., Z. Toth, S. J. Majumdar, R. Morss, C. Bishop. and S. Lord, 1999: Ensemble-based targeted observations during NORPEX. Preprints, Third Symp. on Integrated Observing Systems, Dallas, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74-78.
34. Szunyogh, I., Z. Toth, R. E. Morss, S. J. Majumdar, B. J. Etherton, and C. H. Bishop, 2000: The effect of targeted dropsonde observations during the 1999 Winter Storm Reconnaissance Program. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 3520-3537.
35. Szunyogh, I., Z. Toth, A. V. Zimin, S. J. Majumdar, and A. Persson, 2002: Propagation of the effect of targeted observations: The 2000 Winter Storm Reconnaissance Program. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 1144-1165.
36. Thorpe, A. J., and M. A. Shapiro, 1995: FASTEX: Fronts and Atlantic Storm Track Experiment. The science plan. Centre National de Recherces Meteorologiques FASTEX Project Office Tech. Report. 25 pp.
37. Toth, Z., I. Szunyogh, S. Majumdar, R. Morss, B. Etherton, C. Bishop, and S. Lord, 1999: The 1999 Winter Storm Reconnaissance program. Preprints, l3th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 27-32.
38. Toth, Z., and Coauthors, 2002: Adaptive observations at NCEP: Past, present and future. Preprints, Symp. on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction, Orlando, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 185-190.