The effect of density-dependent catastrophes on population persistence time

Journal of Applied Ecology

Volumn 40, Issue 5, 2003, Pages 859-871

  Wilcox, Chris ^a   Elderd, Bret ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND   (Australia)

^b Henry Hinds Lab for Geophys Sci   (United States)

Author keywords

Birth death markov process; Disease; Extinction; PVA; Starvation

Indexed keywords

CATASTROPHIC EVENT; DENSITY DEPENDENCE; DISEASE; PERSISTENCE;

LOBODON CARCINOPHAGUS; PHOCIDAE; POTATO VIRUS A;

EID: 0141501988     PISSN: 00218901     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1046/j.1365-2664.2003.00852.x     Document Type: Article

References (43)

1. Armbruster, P. & Lande, R. (1993) A population viability analysis for African elephant (Loxodonta africana) -how big should reserves be. Conservation Biology, 7, 602-610.
2. Beissinger, S.R. & Westphal, M.I. (1998) On the use of demographic models of population viability in endangered species management. Journal of Wildlife Management, 62, 821-841.
3. Boyce, M.S. (1992) Population Viability Analysis. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 23, 481-506.
4. Brockwell, P.J. (1985) The extinction time of a birth, death, and catastrophe process and of a related diffusion model. Advances in Applied Probability, 17, 42-52.
5. Brockwell, P.J., Gani, J. & Resnick, S.I. (1982) Birth, immigration, and catastrophe processes. Advances in Applied Probability, 14, 709-731.
6. Burgman, M.A., Person, S. & Akcakaya, H.R. (1993) Risk Assessment in Conservation Biology, 1st edn. Chapman & Hall, London.
7. Caughley, G. (1994) Directions in conservation biology. Journal of Animal Ecology, 63, 215-244.
8. Caughley, G. & Gunn, A. (1993) Dynamics of large herbivores in deserts - kangaroos and caribou. Oikos, 67, 47-55.
9. Chapman, A.P., Brook, B.W., Clutton-Brock, T.H., Grenfell, B.T. & Frankham, R. (2001) Population viability analyses on a cycling population: a cautionary tale. Biological Conservation, 97, 61-69.
10. Coulson, T., Mace, G.M., Hudson, E. & Possingham, H. (2001) The use and abuse of population viability analysis. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 16, 219-221.
11. Doak, D., Kareiva, P. & Klepetka, B. (1994) Modelling population viability for the desert tortoise in the Western Mojave Desert. Ecological Applications, 4, 446-460.
12. Dobson, A.P. & Hudson, P.J. (1995) Microparasties: observed patterns in wild animal populations. Ecology of Infectious Diseases in Natural Populations (eds B.T. Grenfell & A.P. Dobson), pp. 52-89. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
13. Erb, J.D. & Boyce, M.S. (1999) Distribution of population declines in large mammals. Conservation Biology, 13, 199-201.
14. Ewens, W.J. (1989) The effective population sizes in the presence of catastrophes. In: Mathematical Evolutionary Theory (ed. M.W. Feldman), pp. 9-25. Princeton University Press, Princeton.
15. Ewens, W.J., Brockwell, P.J., Gani, J.M. & Resnick, S.I. (1987) Minimum viable population size in the presence of catastrophes. Viable Populations for Conservation (ed. M.E. Soule), pp. 59-68. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
16. Geraci, J.R., St. Aubin, D.J., Barker, I.K., Webster, R.G., Hinshaw, V.S., Bean, W.J., Ruhnke, H.L., Prescott, J.H., Early, G., Baker, A.S., Madoff, S. & Schooley, R.T. (1982) Mass mortality of harbor seals: pneumonia associated with influenza A virus. Science, 215, 1129-1131.
17. Ginzburg, L.R., Ferson, S. & Akcakaya, H.R. (1990) Reconstructibility of density dependence and the conservative assessment of extinction risks. Conservation Biology, 4, 63-70.
18. Goodman, D. (1987) The demography of chance extinction. Viable Populations for Conservation (ed. M.E. Soulé), pp. 11-34. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
19. Hanson, F. & Ryan, D. (1988) Optimal harvesting with density dependent random effects. Natural Resource Modelling, 2, 439-455.
20. Hilborn, R. & Mangel, M. (1997) The Ecological Detective: Confronting Models with Data. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
21. Hochachka, W.M. & Dhondt, A.A. (2000) Density-dependent decline of host abundance resulting from a new infectious disease. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 97, 5303-5306.
22. Inchausti, P. & Weimerskirch, H. (2001) Risks of decline and extinction of the endangered Amsterdam albatross and the projected impact of long-line fisheries. Biological Conservation, 100, 377-386.
23. Kokko, H., Lindstrom, J. & Ranta, E. (1997) Risk analysis of hunting of seal populations in the Baltic. Conservation Biology, 11, 917-927.
24. Lande, R. (1993) Risks of Population Extinction from Demographic and Environmental Stochasticity and Random Catastrophes. American Naturalist, 142, 911-927.
25. Laws, R.M. & Taylor, R.J.F. (1957) A mass dying of crabeater seals, Lobodon carcinophagus. Proceedings of the Zoological Society of London, 129, 315-325.
26. MacArthur, R.H. & Wilson, E. O. ( 1967) The Theory of Island Biogeography. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
27. Mace, G.M. & Lande, R. (1991) Assessing extinction threats - toward a re-evaluation of IUCN threatened species categories. Conservation Biology, 5, 148-157.
28. Mangel, M. & Tier, C. (1993) A simple direct method for finding persistence times of populations and application to conservation problems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 90, 1083-1086.
29. Marmontel, M., Humphrey, S.R. & Oshea, T.J. (1997) Population viability analysis of the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris), 1976-91. Conservation Biology, 11, 467-481.
30. McCarthy, M.A., Possingham, H.P. & Gill, A.M. (2001) Using stochastic dynamic programming to determine optimal fire management for Banksia ornata. Journal of Applied Ecology, 38, 585-592.
31. Meffe, G.K. & Carroll, C.R. (1994) Principles of Conservation Biology. Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, Massachusetts.
32. Oli, M.K., Holler, N.R. & Wooten, M.C. (2001) Viability analysis of endangered Gulf Coast beach mice (Peromyscus polionotus) populations. Biological Conservation, 97, 107-118.
33. Pascual, M.A. & Hilborn, R. (1995) Conservation of harvested populations in fluctuating environments - the case of the Serengeti wildebeest. Journal of Applied Ecology, 32, 468-480.
34. Pascual, M.A., Kareiva, P. & Hilborn, R. (1997) The influence of model structure on conclusions about the viability and harvesting of Serengeti wildebeest. Conservation Biology, 11, 966-976.
35. Reed, J.M., Mills, L.S., Dunning, J.B., Menges, E.S., McKelvey, K.S., Frye, R., Beissinger, S.R., Anstett, M.-C. & Miller, P. (2002) Emerging issues in population viability analysis. Conservation Biology, 16, 7-19.
36. Robinson, W.L. & Bolen, E.G. (1989) Wildlife Ecology and Management, 2nd edn. Macmillan, New York.
37. Shaffer, M. (1987) Minimum viable population: coping with uncertainty. Viable Populations for Conservation (ed. M.E. Soulé), pp. 67-86. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Cambridgeshire; New York.
38. Song, Y.L. (1996) Population viability analysis for two isolated populations of Haianan elds deer. Conservation Biology, 10, 1467-1472.
39. Swart, J., Lawes, M.J. & Perrin, M.R. (1993) A mathematical model to investigate the demographic viability of low-density Samango monkey (Cercopithecus mitis) populations in Natal, South Africa. Ecological Modelling, 70, 289-303.
40. Swilling, W.R., Wooten, M.C., Holler, N.R. & Lynn, W.J. (1998) Population dynamics of Alabama beach mice (Peromyscus polionotus ammobates) following Hurricane Opal. American Midland Naturalist, 140, 287-298.
41. Taylor, H.M. & Karlin, S. (1998) An Introduction to Stochastic Modelling, 3rd edn. Academic Press, San Diego.
42. Young, T.P. (1994) Natural Die-offs of large mammals - implications for conservation. Conservation Biology, 8, 410-418.
43. Young, T.P. (1999) Catastrophes are still interesting. Conservation Biology, 13, 202.