Predicting a firm's forecasting ability: The roles of organizational illusion of control and organizational attention

Strategic Management Journal

Volumn 24, Issue 9, 2003, Pages 821-838

  Durand, Rodolphe ^a  

^a EMLYON BUSINESS SCHOOL   (France)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

FORECASTING; INVESTMENTS; MARKETING; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; SOCIETIES AND INSTITUTIONS;

FORECASTING ABILITY; ORGANIZATIONAL ATTENTION;

INDUSTRIAL MANAGEMENT;

EID: 0043011309     PISSN: 01432095     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/smj.339     Document Type: Article

References (75)

1. Amburgey T, Dacin T. 1997. Event count analysis and strategic management. In Statistical Models for Strategic Management, Ghertman M, Obadia J, Arregle J-L (eds). Kluwer: Boston, MA; 29-45.
2. Bandura A. 1977. Self-efficacy: toward a unifying theory of behavioral change. Psychological Review 84(2): 191-215.
3. Barnes JH. 1984. Cognitive biases and their impact on strategic planning. Strategic Management Journal 5(2): 129-137.
4. Barney J. 1986. Strategic factor markets: expectations, luck, and business strategy. Management Science 42: 1231-1241.
5. Barney J. 1991. Firm resources and sustained competitive advantage. Journal of Management 17: 99-120.
6. Bateman TS, Zeithmal CP. 1989. The psychological context of strategic decisions: a model and convergent experimental findings. Strategic Management Journal 10(1): 59-74.
7. Beyer J, Chattopadhyay P, George E, Glick WH, Pugliese D. 1997. The selective perception of managers revisited. Academy of Management Journal 40: 716-737.
8. Brews PJ, Hunt MR. 1999. Learning to plan and planning to learn: resolving the planning school/learning school debate. Strategic Management Journal 20 (10): 889-914.
9. Bromiley P. 1987. Do forecasts produced by organizations reflect anchoring and adjustment? Journal of Forecasting 6(3): 201-210.
10. Bourgeois LJ. 1985. Strategic goals, perceived uncertainty, and economic performance in volatile environments. Academy of Management Journal 28: 548-573.
11. Carleton WT, Chen CR, Steiner TL. Optimism biases among brokerage and non-brokerage firms' equity recommendations: agency costs in the investment industry. Financial Management 27(1): 17-30.
12. Chattopadhyay P, Glick WH, Miller CC, Huber GP. 1999. Determinants of executive beliefs: comparing functional conditioning and social influence. Strategic Management Journal 20(8): 763-789.
13. Clapham SE, Schwenk CR. 1991. Self-serving attributions, managerial cognition, and company performance. Strategic Management Journal 12(3): 219-229.
14. Cockburn IM, Henderson RM, Stern S. 2000. Untangling the origins of competitive advantage. Strategic Management Journal, 21: 1123-1145.
15. Coff RW. 1999. How buyers cope with uncertainty when acquiring firms in knowledge-intensive industries: caveat emptor. Organization Science 10: 144-161.
16. Cool K, Henderson J. 1998. Power and firm profitability in supply chains: French manufacturing industry in 1993. Strategic Management Journal 19(10): 909-926.
17. Corner P, Kinicki A, Keats B. 1994. Integrating organizational and individual information processing perspectives on choice. Organization Science 5(3): 294-309.
18. Daft R, Weick K. 1984. Toward a model of organizations as interpretation systems. Academy of Management Review 9(2): 284-295.
19. Das TK, Teng BS. 1999. Cognitive biases and strategic decision processes: an integrative perspective. Journal of Management Studies 36: 757-778.
20. Duhaime I, Schwenk C. 1985. Conjectures on cognitive simplification in acquisition and divestment decision making. Academy of Management Review 10: 287-295.
21. Durand R. 2002. Competitive advantages exist: a response to Powell. Strategic Management Journal 23(9): 867-872.
22. Eisenhardt K, Martin JA. 2000. Dynamic capabilities: what are they? Strategic Management Journal, Special Issue 21: 1105-1121.
23. Friedrich RJ. 1982. In defense of multiplicative terms in multiple regression equations. American Journal of Political Science 26: 797-833.
24. Garud R, Rappa M. 1994. A socio-cognitive model of technology evolution: the case of cochlear implants. Organization Science 5(3):344-362.
25. Grant RM. 1998. Prospering in dynamically competitive environments: organizational capability as knowledge integration. In Illinitch A, Lewin A, D'aveni R (eds). Managing in Times of Disorder. Sage: London: 297-318.
26. Greve H. 1996. Patterns of competition: the diffusion of a market position in radio broadcasting. Administrative Science Quarterly 41: 29-60.
27. Greve H. 1998. Managerial cognition and the mimetic adoption of market positions: what you see is what you do. Strategic Management Journal 19(10): 967-988.
28. Greve H. 1999. The effect of core change on performance: inertia and regression toward the mean. Administrative Science Quarterly 44: 590-614.
29. Halman J, Keizer J. 1994. Diagnosing risk in product innovation projects. International Journal of Project Management 12(2): 75-81.
30. Hambrick DC. 1981. Strategic awareness within top management teams. Strategic Management Journal 2(3): 153-173.
31. Hambrick DC. 1982. Environmental scanning and organizational strategy. Strategic Management Journal 3(2): 159-174.
32. Hayward ML, Hambrick DC. 1997. Explaining premium paid for large acquisitions: evidence of CEO hubris. Administrative Science Quarterly 42(1): 103-127.
33. Henderson RM, Cockburn IM. 1994. Measuring competence? Exploring firm effects in pharmaceutical research. Strategic Management Journal, Winter Special Issue 15: 63-84.
34. Kahneman D, Tversky A. 1984. Choice, values, and frames. American Psychologist 39: 341-350.
35. Kennedy P. 1998. A guide to Econometrics. MIT Press: Cambridge, MA.
36. Knight D, Pearce C L, Smith KG, Olian JD, Sims HP, Smith KA, Flood P. 1999. Top management team diversity, group process, and strategic consensus. Strategic Management Journal 20(5): 445-465.
37. King AW, Zeithaml CP. 2001. Competencies and firm performance: examining the causal ambiguity paradox. Strategic Management Journal 22(1): 75-99.
38. Landis RJ, Koch GG, 1977. The measurement of observer agreement for categorical data. Biometrics 33: 159-174.
39. Langer EJ. 1975. The illusion of control. Journal of Personality and Personal Psychology 32(2): 311-328.
40. Lubatkin M, Schulze W, Mainkar, A, Cotterill RW, 2001. Ecological investigation of firm-effect in horizontal mergers. Strategic Management Journal 22(4): 335-357.
41. Makadok R, Walker G. 2000. Identifying a distinctive competence: forecasting ability in the money fund industry. Strategic Management Journal 21(8): 853-864.
42. Matute H. 1996. Illusion of control: detecting response-outcome independence in analytic but not in naturalistic conditions. Psychological Science 7(5): 289-299.
43. McNamara G, Bromiley P. 1997. Decision making in an organizational setting: cognitive and organizational influences on risk assessment in commercial lending. Academy of Management Journal 40(5): 1063-1088.
44. McNamara G, Bromiley P. 1999. Risk and return in organizational decision making. Academy of Management Journal 42(3): 330-339.
45. McNamara G, Vaaler P. 2000. The influence of competitive positioning and rivalry on emerging market risk assessment. Journal of International Business Studies 31(2): 337-347.
46. McNamara G, Luce RA, Tompson GH. 2002. Examining the effect of complexity in strategic group knowledge on firm performance. Strategic Management Journal 23(2): 153-170.
47. Mosakowski E. 1997. Strategy making under causal ambiguity: conceptual issues and empirical evidence. Organization Science 8(4): 414-442.
48. Mosakowski E. 1998a. Managerial prescriptions under the resource-based view of strategy: the example of motivational techniques. Strategic Management Journal 19(12): 1169-1182.
49. Mosakowski E. 1998b. Entrepreneurial resources, organizational choices, and competitive outcomes. Organization Science 9(6): 625-643.
50. Mosakowski E, McKelvey B. 1997. Predicting rent generation in competence-based competition. In Competence-Based Strategic Management, Sanchez R, Heene A (eds). Wiley: New York; 65-83.
51. Nelson R, Winter S. 1982. An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change. Harvard University Press: Boston, MA.
52. Ocasio W. 1997. Towards an attention-based view of the firm. Strategic Management Journal, Summer Special Issue 18: 187-206.
53. Penrose E. 1959. The Theory of the Growth of the Firm. Basil Blackwell: Oxford.
54. Pindyck RS, Rubinfeld DL. 1981. Econometric Models and Economic Forecast. McGraw-Hill: New York.
55. Powell T. 1992. Organizational alignment as competitive advantage. Strategic Management Journal 13(2): 119-134.
56. Powell T. 2001. Competitive advantage: logical and philosophical considerations. Strategic Management Journal 22(9): 875-888.
57. Prahalad CK, Bettis R. 1986. The dominant logic: a new linkage between diversity and performance. Strategic Management Journal 7(6): 485-502.
58. Scherer FM, Ross D. 1990. Industrial Market Structure and Economic Performance, 3rd edn. Houghton Mifflin: Boston, MA.
59. Schweitzer M, Cachon G. 2000. Decision bias in the newsvendor problem with a known demand distribution: experimental evidence. Management Science 46:404-420.
60. Schwenk CR. 1984. Cognitive simplification processes in strategic decision-making. Strategic Management Journal 5(2): 111-128.
61. Schwenk CR. 1986. Information, cognitive biases, and commitment to a course of action. Academy of Management Review 11: 298-310.
62. Simon M, Houghton SM, Aquino K. 2000. Cognitive biases, risk perception, and venture formation: how individuals decide to start companies. Journal of Business Venturing 15(2): 113-134.
63. Simon M, Houghton SM, Savelli S. 2000. The effects of overconfidence on the performance of product introductions: evidence from an exploration field study. Paper presented at the Academy of Management, Toronto.
64. Starbuck WH, Mezias J. 1996. Opening Pandora's box: studying the accuracy of managers' perceptions. Journal of Organizational Behavior 17: 99-117.
65. Staw BM, Ross J. 1987. Behaviors in escalation situations: antecedents, prototypes, and solutions. In Research in Organizational Behavior, Cummings LG, Staw B (eds). JAI Press: Greenwich, CT; 39-78.
66. Sutcliffe KM. 1994. What executives notice: accurate perceptions in top management teams. Academy of Management Journal 37: 1360-1378.
67. Sutcliffe KM, Huber GP. 1998. Firm and industry as determinants of executive perceptions of the environment. Strategic Management Journal 19(8): 793-807.
68. Teece DJ, Pisano G, Shuen A. 1997.Dynamic capabilities and strategic management. Strategic Management Journal 18(7): 509-553.
69. Theil H. 1971. Principles of Econometrics. Wiley: New York.
70. Thomas JB, Clark SM, Gioia D. 1993. Strategy sense-making and organizational performance: linkages among scanning, interpretation, action, and outcomes. Academy of Management Journal, 36(2): 239-270.
71. Trispas M, Gavetti G. 2000. Capabilities, cognition, and inertia: evidence from digital imaging. Strategic Management Journal, Special Issue 21: 1147-1161.
72. Tversky A, Kahneman D. 1974. Judgement under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Science 185: 1124-1131.
73. Wonnacott R, Wonnacott T. 1972. Introductory Statistics. Wiley: New York.
74. Wood RE, Bandura B. 1989. Social cognitive theory of organizational management. Academy of Management Review 14(2): 361-384.
75. Yates JR, Jagacinski CM, Faber MD. 1978. Evaluation of partially described multiattribute options. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 21: 240-251.