A seasonal model to simulate influenza oscillation in Tokyo

Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases

Volumn 56, Issue 2, 2003, Pages 43-47

  Urashima, Mitsuyoshi ^a,b   Shindo, Nahoko ^b   Okabe, Nobuhiko ^b  

^a JIKEI UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MEDICINE   (Japan)

^b NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES   (Japan)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ADOLESCENT; ARTICLE; CHILD; CONTROLLED STUDY; ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE; GOVERNMENT; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; HEALTH SURVEY; HUMAN; HUMIDITY; INFECTION RATE; INFLUENZA; JAPAN; LINEAR SYSTEM; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MULTIPLE REGRESSION; SEASONAL VARIATION; STATISTICAL MODEL; VALIDATION PROCESS; VAPOR PRESSURE; WEATHER; WINTER;

HUMANS; INCIDENCE; INFLUENZA, HUMAN; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; REPRODUCIBILITY OF RESULTS; SEASONS; TOKYO; WEATHER;

EID: 0041671077     PISSN: 13446304     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (20)

1. Anderson, R. N. (2002): Deaths: leading causes for 2000. Natl. Vital. Stat. Rep., 50, 1-85.
2. Baron, R. C., Dicker, R. C., Bussell, K. E. and Herndon, J. L. (1988): Assessing trends in mortality in 121 U.S. cities, 1970-79, from all causes and from pneumonia and influenza. Public Health Rep., 103, 120-128.
3. Neuzil, K. M., Hohlbein, C. and Zhu, Y. (2002): Illness among schoolchildren during influenza season: effect on school absenteeism, parental absenteeism from work, and secondary illness in families. Arch. Pediatr. Adolesc. Med., 156, 986-991.
4. Arca, M., Di, Orio. F., Forastiere, F., Tasco, C. and Perucci, C. A. (1988): Years of potential life lost (YPLL) before age 65 in Italy. Am. J. Public Health, 78, 202-205.
5. Curwen, M. and Devis, T. (1988): Winter mortality, temperature and influenza: has the relationship changed in recent years? Popul. Trends, 54, 17-20.
6. Simonsen, L., Clarke, M. J., Williamson, G. D., Stroup, D. F., Arden, N. H. and Schonberger, L. B. (1997): The impact of influenza epidemics on mortality: introducing a severity index. Am. J. Public Health, 87, 944-950.
7. Armstrong, G. L., Conn, L. A. and Pinner, R. W. (1999): Trends in infectious disease mortality in the United States during the 20th century. JAMA, 281, 61-66.
8. Okabe, N., Yamashita, K., Taniguchi, K. and Inoue, S. (2000): Influenza surveillance system of Japan and acute encephalitis and encephalopathy in the influenza season. Pediatr. Int., 42, 187-191.
9. Reyes, M., Eriksson, M., Bennet, R., Hedlund, K. O. and Ehrnst, A. (1997): Regular pattern of respiratory syncytial virus and rotavirus infections and relation to weather in Stockholm, 1984-1993. Clin. Microbiol. Infect., 3, 640-646.
10. Izurieta, H. S., Thompson, W. W., Kramarz, P., Shay, D. K., Davis, R. L., DeStefano, F., Black, S., Shinefield, H. and Fukuda, K. (2000): Influenza and the rates of hospitalization for respiratory disease among infants and young children. N. Engl. J. Med., 342, 232-239.
11. Shoji, S. (1994): "Kisetsu to kaze". Jpn. J. Clin. Exp. Med., 71, 3030-3088 (in Japanese).
12. Epand, R. M. and Epand, R. F. (2002): The thermal denaturation of influenza virus and its relationship to membrane fusion. Biochem. J., 365, 841-848.
13. Hamer, W. H. (1906): Epidemic disease in England. Lancet, I, 733-739.
14. Anderson, R. M. and May, R. M. (1992): Infectious Disease of Humans: Dynamics and Control. Oxford University Press, London.
15. Anderson, R. M. and May, R. M. (1979): Population biology of infectious diseases: Part I. Nature, 280, 361-367.
16. May, R. M. and Anderson, R. M. (1979): Population biology of infectious diseases: Part II. Nature, 280, 455-461.
17. Mugglin, A. S., Cressie, N. and Gemmell, I. (2002): Hierarchical statistical modelling of influenza epidemic dynamics in space and time. Stat. Med., 21, 2703-2721.
18. Delworth, T. L. and Knutson, T. R. (2000): Simulation of early 20th century global warming. Science, 287, 2246-2250.
19. Vinnikov, K. Y., Robock, A., Stouffer, R. J., Walsh, J. E., Parkinson, C. L., Cavalieri, D. J., Mitchell, J. F., Garrett, D. and Zakharov, V. F. (1999): Global warming and Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent. Science, 286, 1934-1937.
20. Piver, W. T., Ando, M., Ye, F. and Portier, C. J. (1999): Temperature and air pollution as risk factors for heat stroke in Tokyo, July and August 1980-1995. Environ. Health Perspect., 107, 911-916.