MODFLOW 2000 Head Uncertainty, a First-Order Second Moment Method

Ground Water

Volumn 41, Issue 3, 2003, Pages 342-350

  Glasgow, Harry S ^a   Fortney, Matthew D ^b,c   Lee, Jejung ^a,d   Graettinger, Andrew J ^a   Reeves, Howard W ^b,e  

^a The University of Alabama   (United States)

^b Northwestern University   (United States)

^c Department of Environment ^*  (United States)

^d INDIANA UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^e U S GEOLOGICAL SURVEY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AQUIFERS; COMPUTER SIMULATION; COMPUTER SOFTWARE; EXTRAPOLATION; GEOLOGY; MATRIX ALGEBRA;

FIRST ORDER SECOND MOMENT (FOSM) APPROACH;

GROUNDWATER;

FLOW MODELING; GROUNDWATER; HEAD (PRESSURE); TRANSMISSIVITY;

FLOW MODELING; GROUNDWATER FLOW; HYDRAULIC HEAD; TRANSMISSIVITY;

ARTICLE; CALIBRATION; FORECASTING; GEOLOGY; SENSITIVITY AND SPECIFICITY; SOIL; THEORETICAL MODEL; WATER FLOW; WATER SUPPLY;

CALIBRATION; FORECASTING; GEOLOGY; MODELS, THEORETICAL; SENSITIVITY AND SPECIFICITY; SOIL; WATER MOVEMENTS; WATER SUPPLY;

EID: 0041508660     PISSN: 0017467X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1745-6584.2003.tb02603.x     Document Type: Article

References (33)

1. Benjamin, J.R., and C.A. Cornell. 1970. Probability, Statistics, and Decision for Civil Engineers. New York: McGraw-Hill.
2. Dagan G. 1986. Statistical theory of groundwater flow and transport: Pore to laboratory, laboratory to formation, and formation to regional scale. Water Resources Research 22, no. 9: 120S.
3. Dettinger, M., and J. Wilson. 1981. First order analysis of uncertainty in numerical models of ground water flow, Part 1: Mathematical development. Water Resources Research 17, no. 1: 149-161.
4. Fortney, M.D. 2001. Reliability analysis for ground water modeling using MODFLOW 2000. M.S. thesis, Department of Civil Engineering, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois.
5. Foster, J., G. Garklavs, and G. Mackey. 1984. Geologic and hydrologic data collected during 1976-1984 at the Sheffield low-level radioactive-waste disposal site and adjacent areas, Sheffield, Illinois. USGS Open-File Report 83-926.
6. Garklavs, G., and R. Healy. 1986. Hydrogeology, ground-water flow and tritium movement at a low-level radioactive-waste disposal site near Sheffield, Illinois. Tech Report. Water-Resources Investigation Report 86-4153. Reston, Virginia: U.S. Geological Survey.
7. Garklavs, G., and L. Toler. 1985. Measurements of ground water velocity using rhodamine wt dye near Sheffield, Illinois. Tech Report. USGS Open-File Report 84-856. Reston, Virginia: U.S. Geological Survey.
8. Gelhar, L.W. 1986. Stochastic subsurface hydrology from theory and applications. Water Resources Research 22, no. 9: 135S-145S.
9. Gelhar, L.W. 1993. Stochastic Subsurface Hydrology. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall.
10. Gelman, A., J.B. Carlin, H.S. Stern, and D.B. Rubin. 1995 Bayesian Data Analysis. London: Chapman and Hall.
11. Graettinger, A.J. 1998. Reliability-based exploration: A quantitative method for evaluating and directing subsurface characterization. Ph.D. thesis, Department of Civil Engineering, Northwestern University, Evanston Illinois.
12. Graettinger, A.J., and C. H. Dowding. 2001. Quantifying exploration sufficiency while accommodating judgment. Journal of Mathematical Geology 33, no. 2: 133-153.
13. Graettinger, A.J., and C.H. Dowding. 1999. Directing exploration with 3-D FEM sensitivity and data uncertainty. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, ASCE 125, no. 11: 959-967.
14. Graettinger, A.J., J. Lee, and H.W. Reeves. 2002. Efficient conditional modeling for geotechnical uncertainty evaluation. International Journal for Numerical and Analytical Methods in Geomechanics 26, no. 2: 163-179.
15. Harbaugh, A., E. Banta, M.C. Hill, and M. McDonald. 2000. MODFLOW 2000. The U.S. Geological Survey Modular Ground-Water Model - Users Guide to Modularization Concepts and the Ground-Water Flow Process. USGS Open-File Report 00-92.
16. Handcock, M.S., and M.L. Stein. 1993. A bayesian analysis of kriging. Technometrics 35, no. 4: 403-410.
17. Harr, M.E. 1996. Reliability-Based Design in Civil Engineering. New York: Dover Publications.
18. Hill, M.C., E.R. Banta, A.W. Harbaugh, and E.R. Anderson. 2000. MODFLOW 2000, The U. S. Geological Survey Modular Ground-Water Model - User Guide to the Observation, Sensitivity, and Parameter-Estimation Process and Three Post-Processor Programs. Report 00-184. U.S. Geological Survey.
19. Isaaks, E.H. and R.M. Srivastava. 1989. An Introduction to Applied Geostatistics. New York: Oxford University Press.
20. James, A.L., and C.M. Oldenburg. 1997. Linear and Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis for subsurface contaminant transport simulation. Water Resources Research 33, no. 11: 2495-2508.
21. Kulhawy, F.H., and C.H. Trautmann. 1996. Estimation of in-situ uncertainty. In Uncertainty in the Geologic Environment: From Theory to Practice, ASCE Geotech. Spec. Publ. No. 58, 269-286. New York: ASCE.
22. Lee, J. 2001. Reliability-based approach to ground water remediation design. Ph.D. diss., Department of Civil Engineering, Northwestern University, Illinois.
23. Lee, S.I., and P.K. Kitanidis. 1991. Optimal estimation and scheduling in aquifer remediation with incomplete information. Water Resources Research 27, 2203-2217.
24. Omre, H. 1987. Bayesian kriging - Merging observations and qualified guesses in kriging. Mathematical Geology 19, no. 1: 25-39.
25. Omre, H., and K.B. Halvorsen. 1989. The bayesian bridge between simple and universal kriging. Mathematical Geology 21, no. 7: 767-786.
26. Poeter, E.P., and S.A. McKenna. 1995. Reducing uncertainty associated with ground water flow and transport predictions. Ground Water 33, no. 6: 899-904.
27. Ryan, B. 1991. Results of hydrologic research at a low-level radioactive-waste disposal site near Sheffield, Illinois. USGS Water-Supply Paper 2367.
28. Skaggs, T.H., and D.A. Barry. 1996. Sensitivity methods for time-continuous, spatially discrete ground water contaminant transport models. Water Resources Research 32, no. 8: 2409-2420.
29. Supriyasilp, T., A.J. Graettinger, and S.R. Durrans. 2003. Quantitatively directed sampling for main channel and hyporheic zone water quality modeling. Special Issue of Advances in Water Resources: Modeling Hyporheic Zone Processes. In press.
30. Townley, L., and J. Wilson. 1985. Computationally efficient algorithms for parameter estimation and uncertainty propagation in numerical models of ground water flow. Water Resources Research 21, no. 12: 1851-1860.
31. Wagner, B.J., and S. Gorelick. 1987. Optimal ground water quality management under parameter uncertainty. Water Resources Research 23, no. 7: 1162-1174.
32. Wagner, B.J., and S. Gorelick. 1992. Ground water quality management under uncertainty: Stochastic programming approaches and the value of information. Water Resources Research 28, 1233-1246.
33. Yeh, W.W.G. 1985. Review of parameter identification procedures in ground water hydrology: The inverse problem. Water Resources Research 22, no. 2: 95-108.