Thickening thin concepts and theories: Combining large N and small in comparative politics

Comparative Politics

Volumn 31, Issue 4, 1999, Pages 465-476

  Coppedge, Michael ^a  

^a NONE

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[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0038979608     PISSN: 00104159     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2307/422240     Document Type: Article

References (17)

1. Robert H. Bates, "Letter from the President: Area Studies and the Discipline," APSA-CP: Newsletter of the APSA Organized Section in Comparative Politics, 7 (Winter 1997), 1-2; Barbara Geddes, "Paradigms and Sandcastles: Research Design in Comparative Politics," APSA-CP: Newsletter of the APSA Organized Section in Comparative Politics, 8 (Winter 1997), 18-20.
2. Robert H. Bates, "Letter from the President: Area Studies and the Discipline," APSA-CP: Newsletter of the APSA Organized Section in Comparative Politics, 7 (Winter 1997), 1-2; Barbara Geddes, "Paradigms and Sandcastles: Research Design in Comparative Politics," APSA-CP: Newsletter of the APSA Organized Section in Comparative Politics, 8 (Winter 1997), 18-20.
3. Karl R. Popper, The Logic of Scientific Discovery (New York: Harper and Row, 1968). Of course, we also need to demonstrate that our hypotheses fit the evidence. Though not always easy, this demonstration is easier than ruling out all the other possibilities, so I emphasize disconfirmation here. One of the alternative hypotheses is that any association we discover is due to chance. Some scholars therefore encourage us to avoid procedures that increase the probability of false positives, such as testing a hypothesis with the same sample that suggested it or engaging in exploratory specification searches or "mere curve-fitting." Some even find methodological virtue in procedures that are more likely to generate hypotheses that are wrong, that is, logical deduction of the implications of simplistic assumptions. I consider this stance an overreaction to the danger of chance associations. The counterintuitiveness of a hypothesis should increase our skepticism and our insistence on thorough testing, not our confidence in thinly documented associations. There are better ways to guard against false positives: enlarging the sample, replicating with different indicators, and testing other observable implications of the hypothesis.
4. Imre Lakatos, "Falsification and the Methodology of Scientific Research Programmes," in John Worrall and Gregory Currie, eds., The Methodology of Scientific Research Programmes (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1978), pp. 8-101.
5. Terry Lynn Karl, The Paradox of Plenty: Oil Booms and Petro-States (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1997).
6. Samuel Huntington, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century (Norman: University of Oklahoma Press, 1991).
7. Rational choice is primarily a method for generating theory. Rational choice theorists who test their models have no choice but to use existing empirical research methods and are subject to the same methodological standards as quantitative or small-N researchers. I do not take the naive falsificationalist stand that any single disconfirmation invalidates the entire approach; such invalidation comes only after the accumulation of many disconfirmations of an approach's predictions. However, the accumulation of consistencies or inconsistencies requires much prior testing of specific hypotheses. In this process every hypothesis must be evaluated with respect to at least one competing hypothesis, perhaps drawn from the same approach, perhaps from others.
8. David Collier and Steven Levitsky, "Democracy with Adjectives: Conceptual Innovation in Comparative Research," World Politics, 49 (April 1997), 430-51.
9. It is sometimes possible to combine multidimensional components into a single indicator. However, a theory that tells one how to combine them properly is required. In geometry, for example, volume is a single indicator of a multidimensional quality, but it can not be calculated unless one knows the appropriate formula for the shape of the object in question.
10. Adam Przeworski, Michael Alvarez, José Antonio Cheibub, and Fernando Limongi, "What Makes Democracies Endure?," Journal of Democracy, 7 (January 1996), 39-55; Giovanni Sartori, The Theory of Democracy Revisited (Chatham: Chatham House, 1987).
11. Adam Przeworski, Michael Alvarez, José Antonio Cheibub, and Fernando Limongi, "What Makes Democracies Endure?," Journal of Democracy, 7 (January 1996), 39-55; Giovanni Sartori, The Theory of Democracy Revisited (Chatham: Chatham House, 1987).
12. Gary King, Robert O. Keohane, and Sidney Verba, Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994), p. 24.
13. As Fearon argues, both large- and small-N tests involve accepting some counterfactual propositions. In large-N regression analyses it is assumed that the explanatory variables are not correlated with any omitted variables. James D. Fearon, "Counterfactuals and Hypothesis Testing in Political Science," World Politics, 43 (January 1991), 169-95. Only careful refutation of the plausible alternatives can make this counterfactual plausible. A large-N analysis has the potential to deal with the inevitable counterfactuals more satisfactorily, and we should improve measurement and control so that large-N analysis can better realize its potential.
14. Harry Eckstein, "Case Study and Theory in Political Science," in Fred Greenstein and Nelson Polsby, eds., Strategies of Inquiry (Reading: Addison-Wesley, 1975), pp. 79-138.
15. Charles Ragin, The Comparative Method: Moving beyond Qualitative and Quantitative Strategies (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1987).
16. Juan J. Linz and Alfred Stepan, eds., The Breakdown of Democratic Regimes (Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1978); Guillermo O'Donnell, Philippe Schmitter, and Laurence Whitehead, eds., Transitions from Authoritarian Rule (Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1978).
17. Juan J. Linz and Alfred Stepan, eds., The Breakdown of Democratic Regimes (Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1978); Guillermo O'Donnell, Philippe Schmitter, and Laurence Whitehead, eds., Transitions from Authoritarian Rule (Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1978).