Structure and precursors of the 1992/93 drought in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa from NCEP reanalysis data

Water SA

Volumn 29, Issue 2, 2003, Pages 201-207

  Dube, Lawrence T ^a   Jury, Mark R ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ZULULAND   (South Africa)

Author keywords

Atmospheric Structure; Drought; Kwa Zulu Natal

Indexed keywords

DATA REDUCTION; STREAM FLOW; VORTEX FLOW; WIND;

ANTICYCLONIC VORTICITY;

DROUGHT;

ANTICYCLONE; ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS; DROUGHT;

KWAZULU-NATAL; SOUTH AFRICA;

EID: 0038518230     PISSN: 03784738     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.4314/wsa.v29i2.4857     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. BARCLAY JJ (1992) Wet and Dry Troughs Over Southern Africa During Early Summer. M.Sc. Thesis, Univ. of Cape Town.
2. CAMP KTG (1997) The Bioresource Groups of KwaZulu-Natal. Cedara Report No N/A/97/6. KwaZulu-Natal Department of Agriculture. Pietermaritzburg, South Africa.
3. CAMP KGT, MANSON AD, SMITH JMB, GUY RM and MILBORROW DJ (1995) The Bioresource Units of KwaZulu-Natal. Cedara Report No N/A/95/32. KwaZulu-Natal Department of Agriculture. Pietermaritzburg, South Africa.
4. CRIMP SJ (1997) Modelling sea-surface temperature anomaly effects on South African rainfall using a mesoscale model. 5th Int. Conf. on South. Hemisphere Meteorol. Oceanogr., Pretoria, South Africa, 7-11 April. 122-123.
5. D'ABRETON PC and TYSON PD (1996) Three-dimensional kinematic trajectory modelling of water vapour transport over Southern Africa. Water SA 22(4) 297-306.
6. DUBE LT and JURY MR (2000) The nature of climate variability and impacts of drought over KwaZulu/Natal, South Africa. S. Afr. Geograp. J. 82 (2) 44-53.
7. DUBE LT and JURY MR (2002) Meteorological structure of the 1992/93 drought over eastern South Africa from ECMWF and satellite OLR analyses. S. Afr. Geograp. J. 84 (2) 170-181.
8. FARMER'S WEEKLY (1993) Planning for drought as a natural phenomenon - two survival strategies. 19 March 1993, 46-47.
9. FINANCIAL MAIL (1993a) GDP - Windfalls and rainfall. Financ. Mail. 129 (8) 35.
10. FINANCIAL MAIL (1993b) Summer crop:Dancing in the rain. Financ. Mail 130 (9) 92.
11. FINANCIAL MAIL (1993c) Agriculture: Badly managed farms. Financ. Mail 130 (1) 68-69.
12. HALTINER GJ and WILLIAMS RT (1980) Numerical Prediction and Dynamic Meteorology. John Wiley & Sons. New York. 477 pp.
13. HARRISON MSJ (1986) A Synoptic Climatology of South African rainfall variations, Ph.D. Thesis, Univ. of Witwatersrand. 341 pp.
14. HASTENRATH S (1995) Recent advances in tropical prediction. Am. Meteorol. Soc. J. Clim. 8 (6) 1519-1532.
15. HUNT BG (1991) The simulation and prediction of drought. In: Henderson-Sellers A and Pitman AJ (eds). Vegetatio. 91, Kluwer Academic Publishers. Belgium. 89-103.
16. JURY MR (1992) A climatic dipole governing the interannual variability of convection over the SW Indian Ocean and SE Africa region. Trends in Geophys. Res. 1 165-172.
17. JURY MR (1996) Long-range Climate Forecasting and User Needs in Southern Africa. Draft report on the Workshop in reducing climate-related vulnerability in Southern Africa held in Zimbabwe from 1-4 October 1996, 16-23.
18. JURY MR (1997) Long-range forecasting of South African summer rainfall using ENSO teleconnections. 5th Int. Conf. on South. Hemisphere Meteorol. and Oceanogr., 7-11 April, Pretoria, South Africa. 103-104.
19. JURY MR (1998) Statistical analysis and prediction of KwaZulu/Natal climate. Theor. and Appl. Climatol. 60 1-10.
20. JURY MR and LEVEY K (1993) The climatology and characteristics of drought in the Eastern Cape of South Africa. Int. J. Climatol. 13 629-641.
21. JURY MR and LYONS W (1994) Contrasting synoptic weather events over Southern Africa in the dry summer of 1983. S. Afr. Geogr. J. 76 (1) 6-10.
22. JURY MR, McQUEEN C and LEVEY KM (1994) SOI and QBO signals in the African region. Theor and Appl. Climatol. 50 103-115.
23. JURY MR, VALENTINE HR and LUTJEHARMS JRE (1993) Influence of the Agulhas Current on summer rainfall along the south-east coast of South Africa. J. Appl. Meteorol. 32 1282-1287.
24. LANDBOUWEEKBLAD (1993) Finansies en ekonomie - 'n Tweede droogte: Verdere ramphulp onontbeerlik. Landbouweekblad, 5 February.
25. LANDMAN WA (1994) Forecasts of South African summer rainfall using canonical correlation analysis. Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bull. 3 (3) 28.
26. LANDMAN WA, KLOPPER E and BARTMAN AG (1997) Rainfall predictions for South Africa's neighbouring countries by means of CCA. 5th Int. Conf. on South. Hemisphere Meteorol. Oceanogr., Pretoria, South Africa, 7-11 April. 83-84.
27. LINDESAY JA (1988) The Southern Oscillation and Atmospheric Circulation Changes over Southern Africa. Unpublished PhD Thesis, Univ. of the Witwatersrand, South Africa. 284 pp.
28. MASON SJ (1992) Sea Surface Temperatures and South African Rainfall Variability. Ph.D. Thesis, Univ. of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg.
29. MASON SJ, JOUBERT AM, COSJIN C and CRIMP SJ (1996) Review of seasonal forecasting techniques and their applicability to Southern Africa. Water SA 22 (3) 203-209.
30. MASON SJ, LINDESAY JA and TYSON PD (1994) Simulating drought in Southern Africa using sea surface temperature variations. Water SA 20 (1) 14-22.
31. McILVEEN JFR (1986) Basic Meteorology. Van Nostrand Reinhold, Wokingham. 457 pp.
32. MONTECINOS A, ACEITUNO P and DIAZ A (1997) Seasonal diagnostic and forecast of rainfall in subtropical South America based on Pacific SST. 5th Int. Conf. on South. Hemisphere Meteorol. Oceanogr., Pretoria, South Africa, 7-11 April. 97-98.
33. MULENGA HM (1998) Southern African Climatic Anomalies, Summer Rainfall and the Angola Low. Ph.D. Thesis, Univ. of Cape Town.
34. MULLAN AB, FOLLAND CK, BASNETT TA and RENSHAW AC (1997) Simulation of multi-decadal climate variability in the South Pacific: 1871-1994. 5th Int. Conf. on South. Hemisphere Meteorol. Oceanogr., Pretoria, South Africa, 7-11 April. 35-36.
35. PARKER B A and JURY M R (1999) Synoptic environment of composite tropical cyclones in the southwest Indian Ocean. S. Afr. J. Marine Sci. 21 99-116.
36. PATHACK BMR, JURY MR, SHILLINGTON FA and COURTNEY S (1993) South African summer rainfall variability and its association with the marine environment. Water Research Commission Report No. 278/1/94, Pretoria, South Africa.
37. PRESTON-WHYTE RA and TYSON PD (1988) The Atmosphere and Weather of Southern Africa. Oxford University Press, Cape Town, 178-276.
38. RAUTENBACH CJ deW (1997) Seasonal variability in observed and GISST simulated rainfall over Southern Africa. 5th Int. Conf. on South. Hemisphere Meteorol. Oceanogr., Pretoria, South Africa, 7-11 April. 105-106.
39. ROCHA A and SIMMONDS I (1997a) Interannual variability of southeastern African summer rainfall - Part I: Relationships with air-sea interaction processes. Int. J. Climatol. 17 235-265.
40. ROCHA A and SIMMONDS I (1997b) Interannual variability of southeastern African summer rainfall - Part II: Modelling the impact of sea-surface temperatures on rainfall and circulation. Int. J. Climatol. 17 267-290.
41. RONCHAIL J (1997) Interdecadal variability of rainfall in Bolivia and sea-surface temperatures. 5th Int. Conf. on South. Hemisphere Meteorol. Oceanogr., Pretoria, South Africa, 7-11 April. 99-100.
42. SCHULZ EF (1976) Problems in Applied Hydrology. Water Resources Publications, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA, 197-210.
43. SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER BUREAU (1992 South African Weather Bureau Newsletter No. 514, Department of Environmental Affairs, South Africa.
44. THE SOUTH AFRICAN SUGAR ASSOCIATION (1993a) Drought cuts growers revenue by R790 million. The South African Sugar Association, July 1993. 182-186.
45. THE SOUTH AFRICAN SUGAR ASSOCIATION (1993b) Bitter harvest of a two-year drought. South African Sugar Association, August 1993. 222.
46. THE SOUTH AFRICAN SUGAR ASSOCIATION (1993c) Rural communities menaced by drought: "Operation Amanzi" offers a water lifeline. South African Sugar Association, September 1993, 262.
47. THIAO W and BARNSTON AG (1997) Long-lead predictability of summer rainfall in Southern Africa. 5th Int. Conf. on South. Hemisphere Meteorol. Oceanogr., Pretoria, South Africa, 7-11 April. 156-157.
48. TYSON PD (1986) Climate Change and Variability in Southern Africa. Oxford Univ. Press, Cape Town. 220 pp.
49. WALKER ND (1989) Sea-Surface Temperature-Rainfall Relationships and Associated Ocean-atmosphere Coupling Mechanisms in the Southern African Region. Unpublished PhD Thesis, Univ. of Cape Town. 173 pp.