Mediterranean summer air temperature variability and its connection to the large-scale atmospheric circulation and SSTs

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 20, Issue 7-8, 2003, Pages 723-739

  Xoplaki, E ^a,b   Gonzalez Rouco J F ^c   Luterbacher, J ^a   Wanner, H ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF BERN   (Switzerland)

^b ARISTOTLE UNIVERSITY OF THESSALONIKI   (Greece)

^c UNIVERSIDAD COMPLUTENSE DE MADRID   (Spain)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AIR TEMPERATURE; ANNUAL VARIATION; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; DECADAL VARIATION; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SUMMER;

MEDITERRANEAN REGION;

EID: 0038266955     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-003-0304-x     Document Type: Article

References (82)

1. Barnett TP, Preisendorfer RW (1987) Origins and levels of monthly and seasonal forecast skill for United States air temperature determined by canonical correlation analysis. Mon Weather Rev 115:1825-1850
2. Barnston AG, Livezey RE (1987) Classification, seasonality and persistence of low frequency atmospheric circulation patterns. Mon Weather Rev 115:1083-1126
3. Bartzokas A, Metaxas DA, Ganas IS (1994) Spatial and temporal sea-surface temperature covariances in the Mediterranean. Int J Climatol 14:201-213
4. Brier GW (1950) Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Mon Weather Rev 78:1-3
5. Corte-Real J, Zhang X, Wang X (1995) Large-scale circulation regimes and surface climatic anomalies over the Mediterranean. Int J Climatol 15:1135-1150
6. Corte-Real J, Qian B, Xu H (1998) Regional climate change in Portugal: precipitation variability associated with large-scale atmospheric circulation. Int J Climatol 18:619-635
7. Cubasch U, Meehl GA, Boer GJ, Stouffer RJ, Dix M, Noda A, Senior CA, Raper S, Yap KS (2001) Projections of future climate change. In: Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Xiaoxu D (eds) Climate change 2001; the scientific basis, ch 9. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp 99-181
8. Dai A, Fung IY, del Genio AD (1997) Surface observed global land precipitation variations during 1900-1988. J Clim 10:2943-2962
9. Easterling DR, Karl TR, Gallo KP, Robinson TA, Trenberth KE, Dai AG (2000) Observed climate variability and change of relevance to the biosphere. J Geophys Res 105:20,101-20,114
10. Folland CK, Karl TP, Christy JR, Clarke RA, Gruza GV, Jouzel J, Mann ME, Oerlemans J, Salinger MJ, Wang SW (2001) Observed climate variability and change. In: Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Xiaoxu D (eds) Climate change 2001; the scientific basis, ch 2. Contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp 99-181
11. Giles BD, Balafoutis C (1990) The Greek heatwaves of 1987 and 1988. Int J Climatol 10:505-517
12. Giles BD, Balafoutis C, Maheras P (1990) Too hot for comfort: the heat waves in Greece in 1987 and 1988. Int J Biometeorol 34:98-104
13. Giorgi F (2002a) Variability and trends of sub-continental scale surface climate in the twentieth century. Part I: Observations. Clim Dyn 18:675-691
14. Giorgi F (2002b) Variability and trends of sub-continental scale surface climate in the twentieth century. Part II: AOGCM simulations. Clim Dyn 18:693-708
15. González-Rouco JF, Heyen H, Zorita E, Valero F (2000) Agreement between observed rainfall trends and climate change simulations in Southern Europe. J Clim 13: 3057-3065
16. González-Rouco JF, Jimenez JL, Quesada V, Valero F (2001) Quality control and homogenization of monthly precipitation data in the southwest of Europe. J Clim 14:964-978
17. Hansen J, Ruedy R, Sato M, Imhoff M, Lawrence W, Easterling D, Peterson T, Karl T (2001) A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change. J Geophys Res 106:23,947-23,963
18. Hansen J, Ruedy R, Sato M, Lo K (2002) Global warming continues. Science 295:275
19. Hunt B, Gordon H (1988) The problem of naturally occurring drought. Clim Dyn 3:19-33
20. Hurrell JW (1995) Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: regional temperatures and precipitation. Science 269:676-679
21. Hurrell JW, van Loon H (1997) Decadal variations in climate associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Clim Change 36:301-326
22. IPCC (2001) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. In; Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds.) Contribution of working group I to third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
23. Jacobeit J (2000) Rezente Klimaentwicklung im Mittelmeerraum. Petermanns Geogr Mittl 144:22-33
24. Jacobeit J, Jönsson T, Bärring L, Beck C, Ekström M (2001) Zonal indices for Europe 1780-1995 and running correlations with temperature. Clim Change 48:219-241
25. Jenne RL (1975) Data sets for meteorological research. NCAR TN 1A-111
26. Jones PD, New M, Parker DE, Martin S, Rigor IG (1999) Surface air temperature and its changes over the past 150 years. Rev Geophys 37:173-199
27. Kalnay et al. (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437-471
28. Katsouyanni K, Pantazopoulu A, Touloumi G, Tselepidaki I, Moustris K, Asimakopoulos D, Poulopoulou G, Trichopoulos D (1993) Evidence of interaction between air pollution and high temperatures in the causation of excess mortality. Archit Environ Health 48:235-242
29. Katsouyanni K, Trichopoulos D, Zavitsanos X, Touloumi G (1988) The 1987 Athens heatwave. Lancet 573:ii
30. Kattenberg A, Giorgi F, Grassl H, Meehl GA, Mitchell JFB, Stouffer RJ, Tokioka T, Weaver AJ, Wigley TML (1996) Climate models - projections of future climate. In: Houghton JT, Meirho Filho LG, Callander BA, Harris N, Kattenberg A, Maskell K (eds) Climate Change 1995. The Science of Climate Change. The second assessment report of the IPCC contribution of WGI. Cambridge University Press, pp 285-357
31. Kistler R et al. (2001) The NCEP-NCAR 50-year Reanalysis: monthly means CD-ROM and documentation. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 82:247-267
32. Kundzewicz ZW, Parry ML (2001) Europe. In: McCarthy JJ, Canziani OF, Leary NA, Dokken DJ, White KS (eds) Climate change 2001. Impacts, adaptations and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the third Assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and NY, USA
33. Kutiel H, Maheras P (1998) Variations in the temperature regime across the Mediterranean during the last century and their relationship with circulation indices. Theor Appl Climatol 61:39-53
34. Kutiel H, Benaroch Y (2002) North Sea-Caspian pattern (NCP) - an upper level atmospheric teleconnection affecting the Eastern Mediterranean: identification and definition. Theor Appl Climatol 71:17-28
35. Livezey RE (1995) The evaluation of forecasts. In: von Storch H, Navarra A (eds.) Analysis of climate variability. Springer, Berlin, New York, Heidelberg, pp 177-196
36. Livezey RE, Smith TM (1999a) Considerations for use of the Barnett and Preisendorfer (1987) algorithm for canonical correlation analysis of climate variations. J Clim 12:303-305
37. Livezey RE, Smith TM (1999b) Covariability of aspects of North American climate with global sea surface temperatures on interannual to interdecadal timescales. J Clim 12:289-302
38. Lolis CJ, Bartzokas A, Metaxas DA (1999) Spatial covariability of the climatic parameters in the Greek area. Int J Climatol 19:185-196
39. Maheras P (2000) Synoptic situations causing drought in the Mediterranean basin. In: Vogt JV, Somma F (eds) Drought and drought mitigation in Europe. Kluwer Academic, Dardrecht, pp 91-102
40. Maheras P, Kutiel H (1999) Spatial and temporal variations in the temperature regime in the Mediterranean and their relationship with circulation; 1860-1990. Int J Climatol 19:1697-1715
41. Maheras P, Flocas HA, Patrikas I, Anagnostopoulou C (2001) A 40 year objective climatology of surface cyclones in the Mediterranean region: spatial and temporal distribution. Int J Climatol 21:109-130
42. Maheras P, Xoplaki E, Davies TD, Martin-Vide J, Barriendos M, Alcoforado MJ (1999) Warm and cold monthly anomalies across the Mediterranean basin and their relationship with circulation; 1860-1990. Int J Climatol 19:1697-1715
43. Matzarakis A, Mayer H (1991) The extreme heat wave in Athens in July 1987 from the point of view of human biometeorology. Atmos Env 25B:203-211
44. Matzarakis A, Mayer H (1997) Heat stress in Greece. Int J Biometeorol 41:34-39
45. Michaelsen J (1987) Cross-validation in statistical climate forecast models. J Climate Appl Meteorol 26:1589-1600
46. Namias J (1948) Evolution of monthly mean circulation and weather patterns. Trans Am Geophys U29:777-788
47. New MG, Hulme M, Jones PD (1999) Representing twentieth-century space time climate variability. Part I: development of a 1961-1990 mean monthly terrestrial climatology. J Clim 12:829-856
48. New MG, Hulme M, Jones PD (2000) Representing twentieth-century space time climate fields. Part II: development of a 1901-1996 mean monthly terrestrial climatology. J Clim 13:2217-2238
49. New M, Todd M, Hulme M, Jones P (2001) Precipitation measurements and trends in the twentieth century. Int J Climatol 21:1899-1922
50. Nicholls N, Gruza GV, Jouzel J, Karl TR, Ogallo LA, Parker DE (1996) Observed climate variability and change. In: Houghton JT, Meira Filho LG, Callander BA, Harris N, Kattenberg A, Maskell K (eds.) Climate change 1995; the science of climate change, ch 3. Contribution of working group I to the second assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp 133-192
51. North GR, Moeng FJ, Bell TL, Cahalan RF (1982) The latitude dependence of the variance of zonally averaged quantities. Mon Weather Rev 110:319-326
52. Palutikof JP, Conte M, Casimiro Mendes J, Goodess CM, Esprito Santo F (1996) Climate and Climatic Change. In: Brandt CJ, Thornes JB (eds.) Mediterranean desertification and land use. Wiley, New York, pp 43-86
53. Perry AH (2001) More heat and drought - can Mediterranean tourism survive and prosper? In: Matzarakis A, de Freitas CR (eds) Proc 1st International workshop on climate, tourism and recreation. Int Soc Biometeorol, commission on climate tourism and recreation. December 2001, Thessaloniki, Greece, WP3, pp 1-6
54. Peterson TC, Vose RS (1997) An overview of the global historical climatology network temperature database. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:2837-2849
55. Peterson TC, Vose RS, Schmoyer R, Razuvaëv V (1998) Global historical climatology network (GHCN) quality control of monthly temperature data. Int J Climatol 18:1169-1179
56. Pozo-Vázquez D, Esteban-Parra MJ, Rodrigo FS, Castro-Diez Y (2001) A study of NAO variability and its possible non-linear influences on European surface temperature. Clim Dyn 17:701-715
57. Ratcliffe RAS (1978) Meteorological aspects of the 1975-76 drought. Proc R Soc London A 363:3-20
58. Rayner NA, Horton EB, Parker DE, Folland CK, Hackett RB (1996) Version 2.2 of the global sea-Ice and sea surface temperature data set, 1903-1994. CRTN 74. Available from Hadley Centre Met Office Bracknell, UK
59. Reddaway JM, Bigg GR (1996) Climatic change over the Mediterranean and links to the more general atmospheric circulation. Int J Climatol 16:651-661
60. Ribera P, Garcia R, Diaz HF, Gimeno L, Hernandez E (2000) Trends and interannual oscillations in the main sea-level surface pressure patterns over the Mediterranean, 1955-1990. Geophys Res Lett 8:1143-1146
61. Rimbu N, le Treut H, Janicot S, Boroneant C, Laurent C (2001) Decadal precipitation variability over Europe and its relation with surface atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature. Q J R Meteorol Soc 127:315-329
62. Saenz J, Rodriguez-Puebla C, Fernandez J, Zubillaga J (2001) Interpretation of interannual winter temperature variations over southwestern Europe. J Geophys Res 106:20,641-20,651
63. Slonosky VC, Yiou P (2002) Does the NAO index represent zonal flow? The influence of the NAO on North Atlantic surface temperature. Clim Dyn 19:17-30
64. Slonosky VC, Jones PD, Davies TD (2001) Atmospheric circulation and surface temperature in Europe from the 18th century to 1995. Int J Climatol 21:63-75
65. Smith TM, Livezey RE (1999) GCM systematic error correction and specification of the seasonal mean Pacific-North America region atmosphere from global SSTs. J Clim 12:273-288
66. Trenberth KE (1990) Recent observed interdecadal climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 71:989-993
67. Trenberth KE (1995) Atmospheric circulation climate changes. Clim Change 31:427-453
68. Trenberth K, Paolino DA (1980) The Northern Hemisphere sea-level level pressure data set: trends, errors and discontinuities. Mon Weather Rev 108:855-872
69. Trigo IF, Davies TD, Bigg GR (1999) Objective climatology of cyclones in the Mediterranean Region. J Clim 12:1685-1696
70. Trigo IF, Davies TD, Bigg GR (2000) Decline in Mediterranean rainfall caused by weakening of Mediterranean cyclones. Geophys Res Lett 27:2913-2916
71. Tsiourtis NX (2001) Drought management plans for the Mediterranean region. Report of the Water Development Department, Nicosia, Cyprus. Available at: http://www.pio.gov.cy/wdd/eng/ scientificticles/archieve2001/article03.htm
72. von Storch H, Zwiers FW (1999) Statistical analysis in climate research. Cambridge University Press, UK
73. Vose RS, Schmoyer RL, Steurer PM, Peterson TC, Heim R, Karl TR, Eischeid J (1992) The Global Historical Climatology Network: long-term monthly temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, and station pressure data. ORNL/CDIAC-53, NDP- 041, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA
74. Watson RT, Zinyowera RH, Moss H (1997) The regional impacts of climate change: an assessment of vulnerability. IPCC Spec Rep Working Group II. Cambridge University Press, UK
75. Wilks DS (1995) Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences: an introduction. In: Dmowska R, Holton JR (eds.) Int Geophys Ser, 59. Academic Press, New York, USA
76. WMO (1986) Guidelines on the quality control of surface climatological data/prepared by Abbott PF (UK) as Rapporteur in the WMO Commission for Climatology, Geneva: WCP, (WCP-85). iv, appendices
77. Xoplaki E (2002) Climate variability over the Mediterranean. PhD thesis, University of Bern, Switzerland ([http://sinus.unibe.ch/ klimet/docs/phd_xoplaki.pdf])
78. Xoplaki E, Luterbacher J, Burkard R, Patrikas I, Maheras P (2000) Connection between the large-scale 500 hPa geopotential height fields and precipitation over Greece during wintertime. Clim Res 14:129-146
79. Xoplaki E, González-Rouco FJ, Gyalistras D, Luterbacher J, Rickli R, Wanner H (2002) Interannual summer air temperature variability over Greece and its connection to the large-scale atmospheric circulation and Mediterranean SSTs 1950-1999. Clim Dyn DOI 10.1007/s00382-002-0291-3
80. Xu JS (1993) The joint modes of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system observed from 1967 to 1987. J Clim 6:816-838
81. Zorita E, von Storch H (1999) The analog method - a simple statistical downscaling technique: comparison with more complicated methods. J Clim 12:2474-2489
82. Zorita E, Kharin V, von Storch H (1992) The atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic area in winter: their interaction and relevance for Iberian precipitation. J Clim 5:1097-1108