Statistical estimation of parameters in a disease transmission model: Analysis of a Cryptosporidium outbreak

Statistics in Medicine

Volumn 21, Issue 23, 2002, Pages 3627-3638

  Brookhart, M Alan ^a   Hubbard, Alan E ^a   Van Der Laan, Mark J ^a   Colford Jr , John M ^a   Eisenberg, Joseph N S ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

Cryptosporidium; Disease transmission; Mathematical model; Outbreak; Profile likelihood

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; CONTROLLED STUDY; CRYPTOSPORIDIOSIS; CRYPTOSPORIDIUM PARVUM; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; EPIDEMIC; HUMAN; IMMUNE STATUS; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; NONLINEAR SYSTEM; POPULATION DYNAMICS; POPULATION MODEL; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; STATISTICAL MODEL; SYMPTOMATOLOGY; UNITED STATES; WATER TREATMENT;

ANIMALS; CRYPTOSPORIDIOSIS; CRYPTOSPORIDIUM PARVUM; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; HUMANS; LIKELIHOOD FUNCTIONS; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; MODELS, STATISTICAL; POPULATION DYNAMICS; WATER; WATER SUPPLY; WISCONSIN;

EID: 0037114457     PISSN: 02776715     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/sim.1258     Document Type: Article

References (19)

1. Anderson RM, May R. Infectious Disease of Humans: Dynamics and Control. Oxford University Press: New York, 1991.
2. Murray JD. Mathematical Biology. Springer-Verlag: New York, 1993.
3. Pielou EC. Mathematical Ecology. Wiley: New York, 1977.
4. Spear RC, Hornberger GM. Eutrophication in Peel Inlet: II. Identification of critical uncertainties via a generalized sensitivity analysis. Water Research 1980; 14:43-49.
5. Eisenberg JN, Reisen WK, Spear RC. Dynamic model comparing the bionomics of two isolated Culex tarsalis populations (Diptera: Culicidae). Journal of Medical Entomology 1995; 32:98-106.
6. Eisenberg JN, Seto EY, Olivieri A, Colford JM, Spear RC. An analysis of the Milwaukee cryptosporidiosis outbreak based on a dynamic model of the infection process. Epidemiology 1998; 9(3):255-263.
7. Raftery AE, Givens GH, Zeh JE. Inference from a deterministic population dynamics model for bowhead whales. Journal of the American Statistical Association 1995; 90(430):402-416.
8. Cancré N, Tall A, Rogier C, Faye J, Sarr O, Trape JF, Spiegel A, Bois F. Bayesian analysis of an epidemiologic model of Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Infection in Ndiop, Senegal. American Journal of Epidemiology 2000; 152(8):760-770.
9. Deguen S, Thomas G, Chau NP. Estimation of the contact rate function in a seasonal SEIR model: application to Chicken Pox in France. Statistics in Medicine 2000; 19(9):1207-1216.
10. MacKenzie WR, Hoxie NJ, Proctor MH, Gradus MS, Blair KA, Peterson DE, Kazmierczak JJ, Addiss DG, Fox KR, Rose JB, Davis JP. A massive outbreak of Cryptosporidium infection transmitted through the public waters. New England Journal of Medicine 1994; 331(3):161-167.
11. Morris RD, Naumova EN, Griffiths JK. Did Milwaukee experience waterborne cryptosporidosis before the large documented outbreak in 1993? Epidemiology 1998; 9(3):264-270.
12. Manetsch TJ. Time-varying distributed delays and their use in aggregate models of large systems. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics 1976; 6:61-67.
13. McCullagh P, Nelder JA. Generalized Linear Model. Chapman & Hall: London, 1989.
14. Press WH, Teukolsky SA, Vetterling WT, Flannery BP. Numerical Recipies in C. Cambridge University Press: New York, 1992.
15. Burden RL, Faires JD. Numerical Analysis. PWS Publishing Company: Boston, 1993.
16. McDonald AC, MacKenzie WR, Addiss DG, Gradus MS, Linke G, Zembrowski E, Hurd MR, Arrowood MJ, Lammie PJ, Priest JW. Cryptosporidium parvum-specific antibody response among children residing in Milwaukee during the 1993 waterborne outbreak. Journal of Infectious Diseases 2001; 183:1373-1379.
17. MacKenzie WR, Schell WL, Blair KA, Addiss DG, Peterson DE, Hoxie NJ, Kazmierczak JJ, Davis JP. A massive outbreak of Cryptosporidium in Milwaukee, Wisconsin: recurrence of Illness and risk of secondary transmission. Clinical Infectious Diseases 1995; 21(1):57-62.
18. Chappell CL, Okhuysen PC, Sterling CR, Dupont HL. Cryptosporidium parvum: intensity of infection and oocyst excretion patterns in healthy volunteers. Journal of Infectious Diseases 1996; 173(1):232-236.
19. Chappell CL, Okhuysen PC, Sterling CR, Wang C, Jakubowski W, Dupont HL. Infectivity of Cryptosporidium parvum in healthy adults with pre-existing anti-C. Parvum immunoglobulin G. American Journal of Tropical Medical Hygiene 1999; 60(1):157-164.