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A tale of two futures: HIV and antiretroviral therapy in San Francisco
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Blower SM, Gershengorn H, Grant RM. A tale of two futures: HIV and antiretroviral therapy in San Francisco. Science 2000; 287:650-654.
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Science
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Predicting the unpredictable: Transmission of drug-resistant HIV
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Blower SM, Aschenbach AN, Gershengorn H, Kahn JO. Predicting the unpredictable: Transmission of drug-resistant HIV. Nat Med 2001; 7:1016-1020. The first analysis to predict levels of transmitted resistance. The authors use time-dependent uncertainty analysis to make predictions from 1996 to 2005.
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Nat Med
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Could widespread usage of combination antiretroviral therapy eradicate HIV epidemics?
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Velasco-Hernandez JX, Gershengorn HB, Blower SM. Could widespread usage of combination antiretroviral therapy eradicate HIV epidemics? The Lancet Infect Dis 2002; 2:487-493. The first analysis to show that a high usage of antiretroviral therapies could lead to the eradication of even a high-prevalence (30%) HIV epidemic (even if high levels of drug resistance arise).
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The Lancet Infect Dis
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Public health consequences of screening patients for adherence to highly active antiretroviral therapy
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Tchetgen E, Kaplan EH, Friedland GH. Public health consequences of screening patients for adherence to highly active antiretroviral therapy. JAIDS 2001; 26:118-129. The first analysis to evaluate the effect of screening for adherence on the incidence of HIV, AIDS and the emergence of drug resistance.
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Modelling the effect of combination antiretroviral treatments on HIV incidence
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Law MG, Prestage G, Grulich A, et al. Modelling the effect of combination antiretroviral treatments on HIV incidence. AIDS 2001; 15:1287-1294. Evaluates the epidemiological trade-off between decreases in transmission due to ART and increases in transmission due to increases in risky sex in the gay community in Australia.
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AIDS
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Law, M.G.1
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Goudsmit, J.1
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Control strategies for tuberculosis epidemics: New models for old problems
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Blower SM, Small PM, Hopewell PC. Control strategies for tuberculosis epidemics: New models for old problems. Science 1996; 273:497-500.
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Science
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Blower, S.M.1
Small, P.M.2
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Understanding, predicting & controlling the emergence of drug-resistant tuberculosis: A theoretical framework
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Blower SM, Gerberding JLG. Understanding, predicting & controlling the emergence of drug-resistant tuberculosis: A theoretical framework. J Mol Med 1998; 76:624-636.
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J Mol Med
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Blower, S.M.1
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16
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Antibiotic resistance: To treat ... (or not to treat)?
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Blower SM, Koelle K, Lietman TC. Antibiotic resistance: To treat ... (or not to treat)? Nat Med 1999; 5:358-359.
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Nat Med
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Blower, S.M.1
Koelle, K.2
Lietman, T.C.3
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17
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0003305256
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Tuberculosis: The evolution of antibiotic resistance and the design of epidemic control strategies
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Horn, Simonett, Webb, editors. Vanderbilt University Press
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Blower SM, Porco TC, Lietman TC. Tuberculosis: The evolution of antibiotic resistance and the design of epidemic control strategies. In: Horn, Simonett, Webb, editors. Mathematical Models in Medical & Health Sciences. Vanderbilt University Press; 1998.
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Mathematical Models in Medical & Health Sciences
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Blower, S.M.1
Porco, T.C.2
Lietman, T.C.3
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18
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0031746978
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Predicting and preventing the emergence of antiviral drug resistance in HSV-2
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Blower SM, Porco TC, Darby G. Predicting and preventing the emergence of antiviral drug resistance in HSV-2. Nat Med 1998; 4:664-665.
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Nat Med
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Blower, S.M.1
Porco, T.C.2
Darby, G.3
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19
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0034029866
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The impact of antivirals and the emergence of drug resistance: HSV-2 epidemic control
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Gershengorn HB, Blower SM. The impact of antivirals and the emergence of drug resistance: HSV-2 epidemic control. AIDS Patient Care STDs 2000; 14:133-142.
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AIDS Patient Care STDs
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Gershengorn, H.B.1
Blower, S.M.2
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20
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0031978256
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Emergence of drug resistance during an influenza epidemic: Insights from a mathematical model
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Stilianakis NI, Perelson AS, Hayden FG. Emergence of drug resistance during an influenza epidemic: Insights from a mathematical model. J Infect Dis 1998; 177:863-873.
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Antiretroviral-drug resistance among patients recently infected with HIV
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Time trends in primary HIV-1 drug resistance among recently infected persons
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Grant RM, Hecht FM, Warmerdam M, et al. Time trends in primary HIV-1 drug resistance among recently infected persons. JAMA 2002; 288:181-188.
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Grant, R.M.1
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Drugs, sex and HIV: A mathematical model for New York City
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Blower SM, Hartel D, Dowlatabadi H, et al. Drugs, sex and HIV: A mathematical model for New York City. Phil Trans Roy Soc Series B 1991; 321:171-187.
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Phil Trans Roy Soc Series B
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Blower, S.M.1
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Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of complex models of disease transmission: An HIV model, as an example
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Blower SM, Dowlatabadi H. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of complex models of disease transmission: An HIV model, as an example. Int Stat Rev 1994; 2:229-243.
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Int Stat Rev
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Blower, S.M.1
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The intrinsic transmission dynamics of tuberculosis epidemics
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Blower SM, McLean AR, Porco TC, et al. The intrinsic transmission dynamics of tuberculosis epidemics. Nat Med 1995; 1:815-821.
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Nat Med
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Blower, S.M.1
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27
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0030967097
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Uncertainty & sensitivity analysis of the basic reproductive rate: Tuberculosis as an example
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Sanchez MA, Blower SM. Uncertainty & sensitivity analysis of the basic reproductive rate: Tuberculosis as an example. Am J Epidemiol 1997; 145:1127-1138.
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Am J Epidemiol
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Sanchez, M.A.1
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An approach to sensitivity analysis of computer models. I: Introduction, input variable selection and preliminary variable assessment
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An approach to sensitivity analysis of computer models. II: Ranking of input variables, response surface validation, distribution effect and technique synopsis
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Iman RL, Helton JC, Campbell JE. An approach to sensitivity analysis of computer models. II: Ranking of input variables, response surface validation, distribution effect and technique synopsis. J Qual Technol 1981; 13:232-240.
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Live attenuated HIV vaccines: Predicting the trade-off between efficacy and safety
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Blower S, Koelle K, Kirschner D, Mills J. Live attenuated HIV vaccines: Predicting the trade-off between efficacy and safety. PNAS 2001; 98:3618-3623.
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PNAS
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Health policy modeling: Epidemic control, HIV vaccines & risky behavior
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Kaplan E, Brookmeyer R, editors. New Haven, Yale University Press
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Blower SM, Koelle K, Mills J. Health policy modeling: Epidemic control, HIV vaccines & risky behavior. In: Kaplan E, Brookmeyer R, editors. Quantitative Evaluation of HIV Prevention Programs. New Haven, Yale University Press; 2001.
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Quantitative Evaluation of HIV Prevention Programs
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Prophylactic vaccines, risk behavior change and the probability of eradicating HIV in San Francisco
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Blower SM, McLean AR. Prophylactic vaccines, risk behavior change and the probability of eradicating HIV in San Francisco. Science 1994; 265:1451-1454.
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Science
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Revision to the British HIV Association guidelines for antiretroviral treatment of HIV seropositive individuals. BHIVA Guidelines Writing Committee
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Gazzard B, Moyle G. 1998 Revision to the British HIV Association guidelines for antiretroviral treatment of HIV seropositive individuals. BHIVA Guidelines Writing Committee. Lancet 1998; 352:314-316.
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