Forecasting the market diffusion of disruptive and discontinuous innovation

IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management

Volumn 49, Issue 4, 2002, Pages 365-374

  Linton, Jonathan D ^a  

^a RENSSELAER POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE   (United States)

Author keywords

Diffusion; Disruptive technologies; Forecasting; Innovation; Learning curve; Process technologies

Indexed keywords

CONSUMER PRODUCTS; FORECASTING; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; MICROELECTROMECHANICAL DEVICES; SALES; SURVEYS; TECHNOLOGY;

DISCONTINUOUS INNOVATION; DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION; LEARNING CURVE; MARKET DIFFUSION; PROCESS TECHNOLOGIES;

MARKETING;

EID: 0036881324     PISSN: 00189391     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1109/TEM.2002.806723     Document Type: Article

References (175)

1. D. F. Abell and J. S. Hammond, Strategic Market Planning. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1979.
2. W. J. Abernathy and K. B. Clark, "Innovation: "Mapping the winds of creative destruction"," Res. Policy, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 3-22, 1985.
3. A. A. Akinola, "An application of the bass model in the analysis of diffusion of cocoa-spraying chemicals among Nigerian cocoa farmers," J. Agricultural Economics, vol. 37, no. 3, pp. 395-404, 1986.
4. N. T. J. Bailey, Mathematical Theory of Epidemics. New York: Hafner, 1957.
5. S. K. Balasubramanian and A. K. Ghosh, "Classifying early product life forms via a diffusion model: Problems and prospects," Int. J. Res. Marketing, vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 345-352, 1992.
6. F. M. Bass, "A new product growth model for consumer durables," Manage. Sci., vol. 15, no. 5, pp. 215-227, 1969.
7. ____, "The relationship between diffusion rates, experience curves, and demand elasticities for consumer durables," J. Business, vol. 53, no. 3, pp. S51-S78, 1980.
8. B. L. Bayus, "Forecasting sales of new contingent products: An application to the compact disc market," J. Product Innovation Manage., vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 43-55, 1987.
9. ____, "Accelerating the durable replacement cycle with marketing mix variables," J. Product Innovation Manage., vol. 5, no. 3, pp. 216-26, 1988.
10. ____, "Have diffusion rates been accelerating over time?," Marketing Lett., vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 215-226, 1992.
11. B. L. Bayus, S. Hong, and R. P. Label Jr., "Developing and using forecasting models for consumer durables," J. Product Innovation Manage., vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 5-19, 1989.
12. I. Bernhardt and K. M. MacKenzie, "Some problems in using diffusion models for new products," Manage. Sci., vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 187-200, 1972.
13. R. Bewley and D. G. Fiebig, "A flexible logistic growth model with application in telecommunications," Technol. Forecasting Social Change, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 177-192, 1988.
14. S. C. Bhargava, R. K. Bhargava, and A. Jain, "Requirement of dimensional consistency in model equations: Diffusion models incorporating price and their applications," Technol. Forecasting Social Change, vol. 41, no. 2, pp. 177-188, 1981.
15. A. W. Blackman, "A mathematical model for trend forecasts," Technol. Forecasting Social Change, vol. 3, no. 4, pp. 441-452, 1972.
16. P. S. Bodger and H. S. Tay, "Logistic and energy substitution models for electricity forecasting: A comparison using new zealand consumption data," Technolog. Forecasting Social Change, vol. 31, no. 1, pp. 27-48, 1987.
17. P. A. Bottomley and R. Fildes, "The role of prices in models of innovation diffusion," J. Forecasting, vol. 17, no. 7, pp. 539-555, 1998.
18. J. L. Bower and C. M. Christensen, "Disruptive technologies: Catching the wave," Harvard Business Rev., vol. 73, no. 1, pp. 43-53, 1995.
19. S. Bretschneider and B. Bozeman, "Adaptive diffusion models for the growth of robotics in new york state industry," Technol. Forecasting Social Change, vol. 30, no. 2, pp. 111-121, 1986.
20. S. I. Bretschneider and V. Mahajan, "Adaptive technological substitutions models," Technol. Forecasting Social Change, vol. 18, no. 4, pp. 129-139, 1980.
21. K. Brockhoff, "A test for the product life cycle," Econometrica, vol. 35, pp. 472-484, 1967.
22. L. P. Bucklin and S. Sengupta, "The co-diffusion of complementary innovations: Supermarket scanners and UPC symbols," J. Product Innovation Manage., vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 148-160, 1993.
23. J. C. Chambers, S. K. Mullick and D. D. Smith, "How to choose the right forecasting technique," Harvard Business Rev., vol. 49, no. 4, pp. 45-69, 1971.
24. R. Chatterjee and J. Eliashberg, "The innovation diffusion process in a heterogeneous population: A micromodeling approach," Manage. Sci., vol. 36, no. 9, pp. 1057-1079, 1990.
25. G. Chow, "Technological change and the demand for computers," Amer. Economics Rev., vol. 57, pp. 1117-1130, 1967.
26. C. Christensen, The Innovator's Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail. Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press, 1997.
27. Y. Clarke and G. N. Soutar, "Consumer acquisition patterns for durable goods: Australian evidence," J. Consumer Res., vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 456-49, 1982.
28. F. J. Collopy, S. Armstrong, and M. Adya, "Principles for examining predictive validity: The case of information systems spending forecasts," Information Syst. Res., vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 170-179, 1994.
29. R. W. Conway and A. Schultz, "The manufacturing progress function," J. Industrial Eng., vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 39-54, 1959.
30. M. Cusumano, Y. Mylonadis, and R. S. Rosenbloom, "Strategic maneuvering and mass-market dynamics: The triumph of VHS over beta," Business History Rev., vol. 66, no. 1, pp. 51-94, 1992.
31. G. De Wet, "Technology space maps for technology management and audits," in Manage. Technol. III, T. M. Khalil and B. A. Bayraktar, Eds. Norcross, GA: Georgia: Institute of Industrial Engineers, 1992, pp. 123-43.
32. M. G. Dekiple, P. M. Parker, and M. Sarvary, "Staged estimation of international diffusion models: An application to global cellular telephone adoption," Technol. Forecasting Social Change, vol. 57, no. 1/2, pp. 105-132, 1998.
33. ____, "Modeling global diffusion," in INSEAD Working Paper, Fontainebleau, France, 1994, 94/72/MKT INSEAD.
34. ____, "Comparing adoption patterns: A global approach," in INSEAD Working Paper, Fontainebleau, France, 1996a, 96/37/MKT INSEAD.
35. ____, "Global diffusion of technological innovations: A coupled-hazard approach," J. Marketing Res., vol. 37, no. 1, pp. 47-59, 2000.
36. W. Dodds, "An application of the bass model in long term new product forecasting," J. Marketing Res., vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 308-311, 1973.
37. J. A. Dodson and E. Muller, "Models of new product diffusion through advertising and word-of-mouth," Manage, Sci., vol. 24, no. 15, pp. 1568-1578, 1978.
38. R. J. Dolan and A. P. Jeuland, "Experience curves and dynamic demand models: Implications for optimal pricing strategies," J. Marketing, 45, no. 1, pp. 52-73, 1981.
39. C. J. Easingwood, V. Mahajan, and E. Muller, "A nonuniform influence innocation diffusion model of new product acceptance," Manage. Sci., vol. 2, no. 3, pp. 273-295, 1983.
40. C. J. Easingwood, "Early product life cycle forms for infrequently purchased major products," Int. J. Res. Marketing, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 3-9, 1987.
41. ____, "An analogical approach to long term forecasting of consumer durable sales," Int. J. Forecasting, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 69-82, 1989.
42. C. J. Easingwood and S. O. Lunn, "Diffusion paths in a high-tech environment: Clusters and commonalities," R & D Manage., vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 69-80, 1992.
43. G. Feder and G. T. O'Mara, "On information and innovation diffusion: A Bayesian approach," Amer. J. Agricultural Economics, vol. 64, pp. 145-147, 1982.
44. J. C. Fisher and R. H. Pry, "A simple substitution model of technological change," Technol. Forecasting Social Change, vol. 3, pp. 5-88, 1971.
45. R. N. Foster, Innovation: The Attacker's Advantage. New York: McKinsey, 1986.
46. L. A. Fourt and J. W. Woodlock, "Early prediction of market success for new grocery products," J. Marketing, vol. 25, pp. 31-38, Oct. 1960.
47. H. Gatignon and T. S. Robertson, "A propositional inventory for new diffusion research," J. Consumer Res., vol. 11. no. 4, pp. 849-867, 1985.
48. H. Gatignon, J. Eliashberg, and T. S. Robertson, "Modeling multinational diffusion patterns: An efficient methodology," Marketing Sci., vol. 8, no. 3, pp. 231-247, 1989.
49. M. Geurts and J. E. Reinmuth, "New product sales forecasting without past sales data," Eur. J. Oper. Res., vol. 4, pp. 84-90, 1980.
50. P. N. Golder and G. J. Tellis, "Will it ever fly? Modeling the takeoff of really new consumer durables," Marketing Sci., vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 256-270, 1997.
51. A. P. Gore and U. A. Lavaraj, "Innovation diffusion in a heterogeneous population," Technol. Forecasting Social Change, vol. 32, no. 2, pp. 163-168, 1987.
52. H. Grubber and F. Verboven, The Diffusion of mobile telecommunications services in the European union, 1998, Center Economic Res. Discussion Paper 138.
53. V. Gurbaxani and H. Mendelson, "An integrative model of information systems spending growth," Informative Syst. Res., vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 23-46, 1990.
54. B. G. S. Hardie, P. S. Fader, and M. Wisniewski, "An empirical comparison of new product trial forecasting models," J. Forecasting, vol. 17, no. 3-4, pp. 209-229, 1998.
55. A. C. Harvey, "Time series forecasting based on the logistic curve," J. Operational Res. Soc., vol. 35, no. 7, pp. 641-646, 1984.
56. J. R. Hauser and G. L. Urban, "The value priority hypotheses for consumer budget plans," J. Consumer Res., vol. 12, no. 3, pp. 446-462, 1986.
57. R. M. Heeler and T. P. Hustad, "Problems in predicting new product growth for consumer durables," Manage. Sci., vol. 26, no. 10, pp. 1007-1020, 1980.
58. L. D. Hiebert, "Risk, learning and adoption of fertilizer responsive seed varieties," Amer. J. Agricultural Economics, vol. 56, no. 9, pp. 764-768, 1974.
59. D. Horsky, "A diffusion model incorporation product benefits, price, income and information," Marketing Sci., vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 342-365, 1990.
60. D. Horsky and L. S. Simon, "Advertising and the diffusion of new products," Marketing Sci., vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 1-17, 1983.
61. W. J. Infosino, "Forecasting new product sales from likelihood of purchase ratings," Marketing Sci., vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 372-390, 1986.
62. T. Islam and N. Meade, "The diffusion of successive generations of a technology: A more general model," Technol. Forecasting Social Change, vol. 56, no. 1, pp. 49-60, 1997.
63. D. Jain, V. Mahajan, and E. Muller, "Innovation diffusion in the presence of supply restrictions," Marketing Sci., vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 83-90, 1991.
64. R. Jensen, "Adoption and diffusion of an innovation of uncertain profitability," J. Economics Theory, vol. 27, pp. 182-193, 1982.
65. W. C. Johnson and K. Bhatia, "Technological substitution in mobile communications," J. Business Indust. Marketing, vol. 12, no. 6, pp. 383-399, 1997.
66. J. M. Jones and C. J. Ritz, "Incorporating distribution into new product diffusion models," Int. J. Res. Marketing, vol. 8, no. 2, pp. 91-112, 1991.
67. S. Jorgensen, "Optimal control of a diffusion model of new product acceptance with price-dependent total market potential," Optimal Control Applicat. Methods, vol. 4, pp. 269-276, 1983.
68. F. T. Juster, "Consumer buying intentions and purchasing probability: An experiment in survey design," J. Amer: Statistical Assoc., vol. 61, no. 315, pp. 658-672, 1966.
69. S. Kalish, "A new product adoption model with pricing, advertising and uncertainty," Manage. Sci., vol. 31, no. 12, pp. 1569-1589, 1985.
70. S. Kalish and G. Lilien, "Optimal price subsidy for accelerating the diffusion of innovations," Marketing Sci., vol. 32, no. 2, pp. 194-205.
71. W. A. Kamakura and S. K. Balasubramanian, "Long-term forecasting with innovation diffusion models: The impact of replacement purchase," J. Forecasting, vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 1-19, 1987.
72. ____, "Long-term view of the diffusion of durables," Int. J. Res. Marketing, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 1-13, 1988.
73. M. K. Knudson, "The invention and diffusion of two competing technologies: Semi-Dwarf and Hybrid Wheat," dissertation, Univ. Minnesota, 1988.
74. R. Kohli, D. R. Lehmann, and J. Pae, "Extent and impact of inclubation time in new product diffusion," J. Product Innovation Manage., vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 134-144, 1999.
75. N. D. Kondratief, The Long Wave Cycle. New York: Richardson and Snyder, 1984.
76. U. Kumar, and V. Kumar, "Technological innovation diffusion: The proliferation of substitution models and easing the user's dilemma," IEEE Trans. Eng. Manage., vol. 39, pp. 158-168, June 1992a.
77. ____, "Innovation diffusion: Some new technological substitution models," J. Math. Soc., vol. 17, no. 2-3, pp. 174-194, 1992b.
78. C. L. Lackman, "Gompertz curve forecasting: A new product application," J. Market Res. Soc., vol. 20, no. 1, pp. 45-47, 1978.
79. G. A. Lancaster and G. Wright, "Forecasting the future of video using a diffusion model," Eur. J. Marketing, vol. 17, no. 2, pp. 70-79, 1983.
80. J. M. Lattin and J. H. Roberts "Modeling the role of risk-adjusted utility in the diffusion of innovations," in Working Paper, 1989, 1019.
81. K. D. Lawrence, "New product forecasting, diffusion modeling with scenario sensitivity analysis," in Marketing Measurement, North-Holland, New York: TIMS, 1980.
82. K. D. Lawrence and M. Geurts, "Converging conflicting forecasting parameters in forecasting durable new product sales," Eur. J. Operational Res., vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 42-47, 1984.
83. K. D. Lawrence and W. H. Lawton, "Applications of diffusion models: Some empirical results," in New Product Forecasting, Y. Wind, V. Mahajan, and R. C. Cardozo, Eds. Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, 1981, pp. 529-41.
84. J. C. Lee and K. W. Lu, "On a family of data-based transformation models useful in forecasting technological substitution," Technol. Forecasting Social Change, vol. 31, no. 1, pp. 61-78, 1987.
85. P. J. Lenk and A. G. Rao, "New models from old: Forecasting product adoption by hierarchical bayes procedures," Marketing Sci., vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 42-53, 1989.
86. H. Levenbach and B. E. Reuter, "Forecasting trending time series with relative growth rate models," Technometrics, vol. 18, pp. 261-272, 1976.
87. G. L. Lilien, A. G. Rao, and S. Kalish, "Bayesian estimation and control of detailing effort in a repeat purchase diffusion environment," Manage. Sci., vol. 27, pp. 493-506, 1981.
88. G. L. Lillien and A. G. Rao, "A marketing promotion model with word of mouth effect," in Working Paper, 1978, 976-78.
89. J. D. Linton, S. Walsh, C. Lombana, and A. Romig, "Line of sight: A process for transferring sciences from the laboratory to the market place," in Management Technology: The Key to Prosperity in the Third Millenium, T. M. Khalil, L. A. Lefebvre, and R. M. Mason, Eds. New York: Pergamon, 2001, pp. 335-342.
90. B. Little and R. A. More, "Sales forecast errors for new product projects," Indust. Marketing Manage., vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 49-53, 1978.
91. V. Mahajan and E. Muller, "Innovation diffusion and new product growth models in marketing," J. Marketing, vol. 43, no. 4, pp. 55-68, 1979.
92. ____, "Innovation diffusion in a borderless global market: Will the 1992 unification of the European community accelerate diffusion of new ideas, products and technologist?," Technological Forecasting Social Change, vol. 45, no. 3, pp. 221-235, Market 1994.
93. V. Mahajan and R. A. Peterson, "Innovation diffusion in a dynamic potential adopter population," Manage. Sci., vol. 24, no. 15, pp. 1589-1597, 1978.
94. V. Mahajan and S. Sharma, "A simple algebraic estimation procedure for innovation diffusion models of new product acceptance," Technol. Forecasting Social Change, vol. 30, no. 4, pp. 331-345, 1986.
95. ____, "An approach to repeat purchase diffusion models," in Proc. Amer. Marketing Educator's Conf., Chicago, IL, 1983, pp. 442-446.
96. V. Mahajan and Y. Wind, Innovation Diffusion Models New Product Acceptance. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger, 1986.
97. E. Mansfield, "Technical change and the rate of imitation," Econometrica, vol. 29, no. 4, pp. 741-766, 1961.
98. K. F. McCardle, "Information acquisition and the adoption of new technology," Manage. Sci., vol. 31, no. 11, pp. 1372-1389, 1985.
99. D. Mckee, "An organizational learning approach to product innovation," J. Product Innovation Manage., vol. 9, no. 3, pp. 232-245, 1992.
100. N. Meade, "Technological substitution: A framework of stochastic models," Technol. Forecasting Social Change, vol. 36, no. 4, pp. 389-400, 1989.
101. H. I. Mesak and W. D. Berg, "Incorporating price and replacement purchases in new product diffusion models for consumer durables," Decision Sci. J., vol. 6, pp. 425-449, 1995.
102. J. S. Metcalfe, "Impulse and diffusion in the study of technological change," Futures, vol. 13, no. 5, pp. 347-359, 1981.
103. P. Meyers and F. Tucker, "Defining roles for logistics during routine and radical technological innovation," J. Acad. Marketing Sci., vol. 17, no. 1, pp. 73-82, 1989.
104. T. Modis and A. Debecker, "Chaos like states can be expected before and after logistic growth," Technol. Forecasting Social Change, vol. 41, no. 2, pp. 111-120, 1992.
105. D. B. Montgomery and V. Srinivasan, "An improved method for meta analysis: With application to new product diffusion models," in Working Paper, Stanford, CA, 1989.
106. G. A. Moore, "Inside the tornado," Success, vol. 42, no. 10. pp. 51-58, 1995.
107. ____, Crossing the Chasm. New York: Harper Business, 1991.
108. D. G. Morrison, "Purchase intentions and purchase behavior," J. Marketing, vol. 43, no. 2, pp. 65-74, Spring 1979.
109. V. G. Morwitz and D. C. Schmittlein, "Using segmentation to improve sales forecasts based on purchase intent: Which 'intenders' actually buy?," J. Marketing Res., vol. 29, no. 4, pp. 391-405, 1992.
110. J. V. Nevers, "Extensions of a new product growth model," Sloan Manage, Rev., vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 78-79, 1972.
111. J. A. Norton and F. M. Bass, "A diffusion theory model of adoption and substitution for successive generations of high technology products," Manage. Sci., vol. 33, no. 9, pp. 1069-1086, 1987.
112. J. A. Olson and S. Choi, "A product diffusion model incorporating repeat purchases," Technol. Forecasting Social Change, vol. 27, no. 4, pp. 385-97, 1985.
113. S. S. Oren and R. G. Schwartz, "Diffusion of new products in risk-sensitive markets," J. Forecasting, vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 273-87, 1988.
114. P. M. Parker, "Choosing among diffusion models: Some empirical evidence," Marketing Lett., vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 81-94, 1993b.
115. P. M. Parker and H. Gatignon, "Specifying competitive effects in diffusion models: An empirical analysis," Int. J. Res. Marketing, vol. 11, pp. 17-39, 1994.
116. P. M. Parker, "Aggregate diffusion forecasting models in marketing: A critical review," Int. J. Forecasting, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 353-380, 1994.
117. P. M. Parker and M. Sarvary, "An integrated cross-cultural study of diffusion theory," in INSEAD Working Paper, Fontainebleau, France, 1994, 94/70/MKT, INSEAD.
118. P. M. Parker, "Price elasticity over the adoption life cycle," J. Marketing Res., vol. 29, no. 3, pp. 358-367, 1992.
119. P. M. Parker and H. Gatignon, "Order of entry, trial diffusion, and elasticity dynamics: An empirical case," Marketing Lett., vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 95-109, 1996.
120. R. Pearl, Studies in Human Biology. Baltimore, MD: Williams and Wilkins, 1925.
121. K. Poznanski, "International diffusion of steel technologies, time-lag and the speed of diffusion," Technol. Forecasting Social Change, vol. 23, no. 4, pp. 305-323, 1983.
122. L. Preston and E. C. Keachie, "Cost functions and progress functions: An integration," Amer. Economic Rev., vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 100-107, 1964.
123. K. Pumalainen and S. Sundqvist, "Predicting and managing the diffusion of innovations - The challenge in mobile telecommunications business," in Proc. R & D Management Conf., Manchester, UK, 2000.
124. A. G. Rao and M. Yamada, "Forecasting with a repeat purchase diffusion model," Manage. Sci., vol. 34, no. 6, pp. 734-752, 1988.
125. S. K. Rao, "An empirical comparison of sales forecasting models," J. Product Innovation Manage., vol. 2, no. 4, pp. 232-242, 1985.
126. W. H. Redmond, "Diffusion at sub-national levels: A regional analysis of new product growth," J. Product Innovation Manage., vol. 11, no. 3, pp. 201-212, 1994.
127. J. F. Reinganum, "On the diffusion of new technology: A game-theoretic approach," Rev. Economic Studies, vol. 43, no. 3, pp. 385-405, 1981.
128. ____, "Technology adoption under imperfect information," Bell J. Economics, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 57-69, 1983.
129. M. Robertson, J. Swan, and S. Newell, "The role of networks in the diffusion of technological innovation," J. Manage. Studies, vol. 33, no. 3, pp. 333-359, 1996.
130. T. S. Robertson and H. Gatignon, "Competitive effects on technology diffusion," J. Marketing, vol. 50, no. 7, pp. 1-12, 1986.
131. T. S. Robertson, "Determinants of innovative behavior," in Proc. Amer. Marketing Assoc., Chicago, IL, 1969, pp. 328-32.
132. ____, Innovative Behavior and Communication. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1971.
133. B. Robinson and C. Lakhani, "Dynamic price models for new product planning," Manage. Sci., vol. 10, pp. 1113-1122, 1975.
134. E. M. Rogers, The Diffusion of Innovations, Fourth ed. New York: Free Press, 1995.
135. P. Schmidt and A. D. Witte, "Predicting criminal recidivism using 'split population' survival time models," J. Econometrics, vol. 40, pp. 141-159, 1989.
136. D. C. Schmittlein and V. Mahajan, "Maximum likelihood estimation for an innovation diffusion model of new product acceptance," Marketing Sci., vol. 1, pp. 57-78, 1982.
137. S. P. Schnaars, Megamistakes: Forecasting and the Myth of Rapid Technological Change. New York: Free Press, 1989.
138. S. P. Schnaars, S. L. Chia, and C. M. Maloles, "Five modern lessons from a 55 year-old technological forecast," J. Product Innovation Manage., vol. 10, pp. 66-74, 1993.
139. J. A. Schumpeter, Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy. Cambridge, MA: Harvard School Press, 1939.
140. M. N. Sharif and K. Ramanathan, "Binomial innovation diffusion models with dynamic potential adopter population," Technol. Forecasting Social Change, vol. 20, pp. 63-87, 1981.
141. M. N. Sharif and M. Islam, "The weibull distribution as a general model for forecasting technological change," Technol. Forecasting Social Change, vol. 18, pp. 247-256, 1980.
142. H. Simon, Price Management. North Holland: Elsevier Science Publishers, 1989.
143. ____, Marketing Science's Pilgrimage to the Ivory Tower. Mainz, Germany: Johannes Gutenberg Univ., 1992.
144. R. K. Sinha and M. Chandrashekaran, "A split hazard model for analyzing the diffusion of innovations," J. Marketing Res., vol. 29, no. 1, pp. 116-127, 1992.
145. J. M. Sinkula, "Some factors affecting the adoption of scanner-based research in organizations," J. Advertising Res., vol.31, no. 2, pp. 50-55, 1991.
146. C. H. Skiadas, "Innovation diffusion models expressing asymmetry and/or positively or negatively influence forces," Technol. Forecasting Social Change, vol. 39, no. 3, pp. 313-330, 1986.
147. MicoElectroMechanical Systems: An SPC Market Study. Arlington, VA: SPC, 1999.
148. V. Srinivasan and C. H. Mason, "Nonlinear least squares estimation of new product diffusion models," Marketing Sci., vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 169-78, 1986.
149. R. K. Srivastava, V. Mahajan, S. N. Ramaswami, and J. Cherian, "A multi-attribute diffusion model for forecasting the adoption of investment alternatives for consumers," Technol. Forecasting Social Change, vol. 28, no. 4, pp. 325-333, 1985.
150. A. Steyer, "La theorie des avalanches: Physique sociale des phenomenes de propagation," Doctoral, L'Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales, Jouy-en-Josas, France, 1993.
151. P. Stoneman, "Intra-Firm diffusion. Bayesian learning and profitability," The Economic J., vol. 91, no. 362, pp. 375-388, 1981.
152. R. Sultan, Pricing in the Electrical Oligopoly. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Univ. Press, 1975, vol. 2.
153. F. Sultan, J. U. Farley, and D. R. Lehmann, "A meta-analysis of applications of diffusion models," J. Marketing Res., vol. 27, no. 1, pp. 70-77, 1990.
154. F. Tabak, "Propensity to adopt technological innovations: The impact of personal characteristics and organizational context," J. Eng. Technol. Manage., vol. 16, no. 3-4, pp. 247-270, 1999.
155. A. P. S. Teotia and P. S. Raji, "Forecasting the market penetration of new technologies using a combination of economic cost and diffusion models," J. Product Innovation Manage., vol. 3, no. 4, pp. 225-237, 1986.
156. R. J. Thomas, "Estimating market growth for new products: An analogical diffusion model approach," J. Product Innovation Manage., vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 45-55, 1985a.
157. ____, "Problems in demand estimation for a new technology," J. Product Innovation Manage., vol. 2, no. 3, pp. 145-157, 1985b.
158. ____, "Forecasting new product market potential: Combining multiple methods," J. Product Innovation Manage., vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 109-119, 1987.
159. D. Tigert and B. Farivar, "The bass new product growth model: A sensitivity analysis for a high technology product," J. Marketing, vol. 45, no. 4, pp. 81-90, 1981.
160. X. Tingyan, "A combined growth model for trend forecasts," Technol. Forecasting Social Change, vol. 38, no. 2, pp. 175-186, 1990.
161. C. Tristram, "Transmeta inside," Wired, vol. 8, no. 7, pp. 174-186, 2000.
162. B. C. Twiss, "Forecasting market size and market growth rates for new products," J. Product Innovation Manage., vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 19-29, 1984.
163. G. L. Urban, J. R. Hauser, and J. H. Roberts, "Prelaunch forecasting of new automobiles," Manage. Sci., vol. 36, no. 4, pp. 401-421, 1990.
164. C. Van den Bulte and G. L. Lilien, "Bias and level diffusion models," Marketing Sci., vol. 16, no. 4, pp. 338-353, 1997.
165. R. J. V. Wyk, "Management of technology: New frameworks," Technovation, vol. 7, no. 4, pp. 341-351, 1992.
166. W. Vanhonacker, "On Bayesian estimation of model parameters," Marketing Sci., vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 54-57, 1990.
167. W. Vanhonacker and L. Price, "Using meta-analysis results in Bayesian updating: The empty cell problem," J. Business Economic Statistics, vol. 10, no. 4, pp. 427-435, 1992.
168. W. Vanhonacker, D. Lehmann, and F. Sultan, "Combining related and sparse data in linear regression models," J. Business Economic Stat., vol. 8, no. 3, pp. 327-336, 1990.
169. S. Walsh and B. Kirchhoff, "Entreprenuers' opportunities and technology based markets," in Technological Entrepreneurship, P. Phan, Ed. New York: IAP Press, 2002, pp. 17-30.
170. S. Walsh and J. D. Linton, "Infrastructure and emerging markets: Implications for strategy and policy makers," Eng. Manage. J., vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 23-31, 2000.
171. J. J. Wiorkowski, "Fitting of growth curves over time when the data are obtained from a single realization," J. Forecasting, vol. 7, no. 4, pp. 259-272, 1988.
172. M. Wright, U. Pritchard, and T. Lewis, "A validation of the bass new product diffusion model in new zealand," Marketing Bulletin, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 15-29, 1997.
173. M. Yamada and Y.-L. E. Leung, Forecasting With a Revealed Similarity Map: Nagoya Univ., 1992.
174. L. E. Yelle, "The learning curve: Historical review and comprehensive survey," Decision Sci., vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 302-328, 1979.
175. P. Young, "Technological growth curves: A competition of forecasting models," Technol. Forecasting Social Change, vol. 44, no. 4, pp. 375-390, 1993.