Testing Theory and the Analysis of Time Series Data

Journal of Quantitative Criminology

Volumn 17, Issue 4, 2001, Pages 343-357

  Britt, Chester L ^a  

^a ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY WEST   (United States)

Author keywords

Cointegration analysis; Theory testing; Time series analysis; Unemployment and crime

Indexed keywords

EID: 0035730043     PISSN: 07484518     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1023/A:1012537720478     Document Type: Article

References (33)

1. Allan, E. A., and Steffensmeier, D. J. (1989). Youth, underemployment, and property crime: Differential effects of job availability and job quality on juvenile and young adult arrest rates. Am. Sociol. Rev. 54: 107-123.
2. Banerjee, A., Dolado, J. J., Galbraith, J. W., and Hendry, D. F. (1993). Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data, Oxford University Press, New York.
3. Bleaney, M. F., Leybourne, S. J., and Mizen, P. (1999). Mean reversion of real exchange rates in high-inflation countries. South. Econ. J. 65: 839-854.
4. Britt, C. L. (1994). Crime and unemployment among youths in the United States, 1958-1990. Am. J. Econ. Sociol. 53: 99-109.
5. Britt, C. L. (1997). Reconsidering the unemployment and crime relationship: Variation by age group and historical period. J. Quant. Criminol. 13: 405-428.
6. Cantor, D., and Land, K. C. (1985). Unemployment and crime rates in the post-World War II United States: A theoretical and empirical analysis. Am. Sociol. Rev. 50: 317-332.
7. Cantor, D., and Land, K. C. (1991). Exploring possible temporal relationships of unemployment and crime: A comment of Hale and Sabbagh. J. Res. Crime Deling. 28: 418-425.
8. Cuthbertson, K., Hall, S. G., and Taylor, M. P. (1992). Applied Econometric Techniques, University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor.
9. DeFronzo, J. (1983). Economic assistance to impoverished Americans. Criminology 21: 119-136.
10. Farrington, D. P. (1986). Age and crime. In Tonry, M., and Morris, N. (eds.), Crime and Justice: An Annual Review of Research, Vol. 7, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, pp. 189-250.
11. Granger, C. W. J., and Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious regressions in econometrics. J. Econometr. 2: 111-120.
12. Granger, C. W. J., and Newbold, P. (1978). Forecasting Economic Time Series, Academic Press, New York.
13. Granger, C. W. J., and Swanson, N. R. (1997). An introduction to stochastic unit root processes. J. Econometr. 80: 35-62.
14. Greenberg, D. F. (1977). Delinquency and the age structure of society. Contemp. Crisis 1: 189-223.
15. Greenberg, D. F. (1985). Age, crime, and social explanation. Am. J. Sociol. 91: 1-21.
16. Greenberg, D. F. (1994). The historical variability of the age-crime relationship. J. Quant. Criminol. 10: 361-373
17. Greenberg, D. F. (2001). Time series analyses of crime rates. J. Quant. Criminol. 17: 291-327.
18. Greenberg, D. F., and Larkin, N. J. (1985). Age-cohort analysis of arrest rates. J. Quant Criminol. 1: 227-240.
19. Hale, C. (1991). Unemployment and crime: Differencing is no substitute for modeling. J. Res. Crime Deling. 28: 426-429.
20. Hale, C., and Sabbagh, D. (1991). Testing the relationship between unemployment and crime: A methodological comment and empirical analysis using time series data from England and Wales. J. Res. Crime Deling. 28: 400-417.
21. Hamilton, J. D. (1994). Time Series Analysis, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
22. Harvey, A. C. (1989). Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter, Cambridge University Press, New York.
23. Hindelang, M. J. (1981). Variations in sex-race-age-specific incidence rates of offending. Am. Sociol. Rev. 46: 93-109.
24. Hindelang, M. J., Hirschi, T., and Weis, J. G. (1981). Measuring Delinquency, Sage, Beverly Hills, CA.
25. Jang, S. J. (1999). Age-varying effects of family, school, and peers on delinquency: A multilevel test of interactional theory. Criminology 37: 643-685.
26. Land, K. C., Cantor, D., and Russell, S. T. (1995). Unemployment and crime rate fluctuations in the post-World War II United States : Statistical time series properties and alternative models. In Hagan, J., and Peterson, R. (eds.), Crime and Inequality, Stanford University Press, Palo Alto, CA, pp. 55-79.
27. Levitt, S. D. (1999). The limited role of changing age structure in explaining aggregate crime rates. Criminology 37: 581-597.
28. Loeber, R., and Snyder, H. N. (1990). Rate of offending in juvenile careers: Findings of constancy and change in lambda. Criminology 28: 97-109.
29. McCain, L. J., and McCleary, R. (1979). The statistical analysis of the simple interrupted time-series quasi-experiment. In Cook, T. D., and Campbell, D. T. (eds), Quasi-Experiment: Design and Analysis Issues for Field Settings, Houghton Mifflin Company, Boston, pp. 233-293.
30. Newbold, P., and Bos, T. (1985). Stochastic Parameter Regression Models, Sage, Beverly Hills, CA.
31. O'Brien, R. M. (1999). Measuring the convergence/divergence of "serious crime" arrest rates for males and females: 1960-1995. J. Quant. Criminol. 15: 97-114.
32. Patterson, G. R., and Yoerger, K. (1993). Developmental models for delinquent behavior. In Hodgins, S. (ed.), Crime and Mental Disorder, Sage, Newbury Park, CA, pp. 140-172.
33. Smith, M. D., Devine, J. A., and Sheley, J. F. (1992). Crime and unemployment: Effects across age and race categories. Sociol. Perspect. 35: 551-572.