Southernization of the nation and nationalization of the South: Racial conservatism, social welfare and white partisans in the United States, 1956-92

British Journal of Political Science

Volumn 31, Issue 2, 2001, Pages 277-301

  Cowden, Jonathan A ^a  

^a Department of Obstetrics Gynecology   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0035589790     PISSN: 00071234     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S0007123401000114     Document Type: Article

References (106)

1. The quotation appears in Jason Epstein, 'White mischief', New York Review of Books, 17 October 1996. The italics are in the original.
2. The quotation comes from Alexander P. Lamis, The Two Party South, 2nd exp'd edn (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1990), p. 21.
3. Andrew Hacker employs this characterization in 'Playing the race card', New York Review of Books, 24 October 1991.
4. See Chandler Davidson, Race and Class in Texas Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1990); Thomas B. Edsall with Mary D. Edsall, Chain Reaction: The Impact of Race, Rights, and Taxes on American Politics (New York: W. W. Norton, 1992); Kevin P. Phillips, The Emerging Republican Majority (New Rochelle, NY: Arlington House, 1969); Edward G. Carmines and James A. Stimson, 'The Racial Reorientation of American Politics', in John C. Pierce and John L. Sullivan, eds, The Electorate Reconsidered (Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage: 1980); Carmines and Stimson, 'Issue Evolution, Partisan Replacement, and Normal Partisan Change', American Political Science Review, 75 (1981), 107-18; Carmines and Stimson, 'On the Structure and Sequence of Issue Evolution', American Political Science Review, 80 (1986), 901-20; and Carmines and Stimson, Issue Evolution: Race and the Transformation of American Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1989).
5. See Chandler Davidson, Race and Class in Texas Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1990); Thomas B. Edsall with Mary D. Edsall, Chain Reaction: The Impact of Race, Rights, and Taxes on American Politics (New York: W. W. Norton, 1992); Kevin P. Phillips, The Emerging Republican Majority (New Rochelle, NY: Arlington House, 1969); Edward G. Carmines and James A. Stimson, 'The Racial Reorientation of American Politics', in John C. Pierce and John L. Sullivan, eds, The Electorate Reconsidered (Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage: 1980); Carmines and Stimson, 'Issue Evolution, Partisan Replacement, and Normal Partisan Change', American Political Science Review, 75 (1981), 107-18; Carmines and Stimson, 'On the Structure and Sequence of Issue Evolution', American Political Science Review, 80 (1986), 901-20; and Carmines and Stimson, Issue Evolution: Race and the Transformation of American Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1989).
6. See Chandler Davidson, Race and Class in Texas Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1990); Thomas B. Edsall with Mary D. Edsall, Chain Reaction: The Impact of Race, Rights, and Taxes on American Politics (New York: W. W. Norton, 1992); Kevin P. Phillips, The Emerging Republican Majority (New Rochelle, NY: Arlington House, 1969); Edward G. Carmines and James A. Stimson, 'The Racial Reorientation of American Politics', in John C. Pierce and John L. Sullivan, eds, The Electorate Reconsidered (Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage: 1980); Carmines and Stimson, 'Issue Evolution, Partisan Replacement, and Normal Partisan Change', American Political Science Review, 75 (1981), 107-18; Carmines and Stimson, 'On the Structure and Sequence of Issue Evolution', American Political Science Review, 80 (1986), 901-20; and Carmines and Stimson, Issue Evolution: Race and the Transformation of American Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1989).
7. See Chandler Davidson, Race and Class in Texas Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1990); Thomas B. Edsall with Mary D. Edsall, Chain Reaction: The Impact of Race, Rights, and Taxes on American Politics (New York: W. W. Norton, 1992); Kevin P. Phillips, The Emerging Republican Majority (New Rochelle, NY: Arlington House, 1969); Edward G. Carmines and James A. Stimson, 'The Racial Reorientation of American Politics', in John C. Pierce and John L. Sullivan, eds, The Electorate Reconsidered (Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage: 1980); Carmines and Stimson, 'Issue Evolution, Partisan Replacement, and Normal Partisan Change', American Political Science Review, 75 (1981), 107-18; Carmines and Stimson, 'On the Structure and Sequence of Issue Evolution', American Political Science Review, 80 (1986), 901-20; and Carmines and Stimson, Issue Evolution: Race and the Transformation of American Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1989).
8. See Chandler Davidson, Race and Class in Texas Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1990); Thomas B. Edsall with Mary D. Edsall, Chain Reaction: The Impact of Race, Rights, and Taxes on American Politics (New York: W. W. Norton, 1992); Kevin P. Phillips, The Emerging Republican Majority (New Rochelle, NY: Arlington House, 1969); Edward G. Carmines and James A. Stimson, 'The Racial Reorientation of American Politics', in John C. Pierce and John L. Sullivan, eds, The Electorate Reconsidered (Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage: 1980); Carmines and Stimson, 'Issue Evolution, Partisan Replacement, and Normal Partisan Change', American Political Science Review, 75 (1981), 107-18; Carmines and Stimson, 'On the Structure and Sequence of Issue Evolution', American Political Science Review, 80 (1986), 901-20; and Carmines and Stimson, Issue Evolution: Race and the Transformation of American Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1989).
9. See Chandler Davidson, Race and Class in Texas Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1990); Thomas B. Edsall with Mary D. Edsall, Chain Reaction: The Impact of Race, Rights, and Taxes on American Politics (New York: W. W. Norton, 1992); Kevin P. Phillips, The Emerging Republican Majority (New Rochelle, NY: Arlington House, 1969); Edward G. Carmines and James A. Stimson, 'The Racial Reorientation of American Politics', in John C. Pierce and John L. Sullivan, eds, The Electorate Reconsidered (Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage: 1980); Carmines and Stimson, 'Issue Evolution, Partisan Replacement, and Normal Partisan Change', American Political Science Review, 75 (1981), 107-18; Carmines and Stimson, 'On the Structure and Sequence of Issue Evolution', American Political Science Review, 80 (1986), 901-20; and Carmines and Stimson, Issue Evolution: Race and the Transformation of American Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1989).
10. See Chandler Davidson, Race and Class in Texas Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1990); Thomas B. Edsall with Mary D. Edsall, Chain Reaction: The Impact of Race, Rights, and Taxes on American Politics (New York: W. W. Norton, 1992); Kevin P. Phillips, The Emerging Republican Majority (New Rochelle, NY: Arlington House, 1969); Edward G. Carmines and James A. Stimson, 'The Racial Reorientation of American Politics', in John C. Pierce and John L. Sullivan, eds, The Electorate Reconsidered (Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage: 1980); Carmines and Stimson, 'Issue Evolution, Partisan Replacement, and Normal Partisan Change', American Political Science Review, 75 (1981), 107-18; Carmines and Stimson, 'On the Structure and Sequence of Issue Evolution', American Political Science Review, 80 (1986), 901-20; and Carmines and Stimson, Issue Evolution: Race and the Transformation of American Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1989).
11. Michael Oreskes, 'The Civil Rights Act, 25 years later: a law that shaped a realignment', New York Times, 2 July 1989.
12. Adam Clymer, 'An early test on race as a campaign issue in '92', New York Times, 3 June 1991.
13. John R. Petrocik, Party Coalitions: Realignments and the Decline of the New Deal Party System (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1981), p. 131. See also Alan I. Abramowitz, 'Issue Evolution Reconsidered: Racial Attitudes and Partisanship in the US Electorate', American Journal of Political Science, 38 (1994), 1-24;
14. John R. Petrocik, Party Coalitions: Realignments and the Decline of the New Deal Party System (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1981), p. 131. See also Alan I. Abramowitz, 'Issue Evolution Reconsidered: Racial Attitudes and Partisanship in the US Electorate', American Journal of Political Science, 38 (1994), 1-24;
15. Bruce A. Campbell, 'Patterns of Change in the Partisan Loyalties of Native White Southerners: 1952-1912', Journal of Politics, 30 (1977), 730-61;
16. and Raymond W. Wolfinger and Robert B. Arseneau, 'Partisan Change in the South: 1952-1976', in Louis Maisel and Joseph Cooper, eds, Political Parties: Development and Decay (Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage, 1978).
17. See Lamis, The Two Party South, p. 20; Louis M. Seagull, Southern Republicanism (New York: Wiley, 1975); and James L. Sundquist, Dynamics of the Party System: Alignment and Realignment of Political Parties in the United States, rev'd edn (Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, 1983).
18. See Lamis, The Two Party South, p. 20; Louis M. Seagull, Southern Republicanism (New York: Wiley, 1975); and James L. Sundquist, Dynamics of the Party System: Alignment and Realignment of Political Parties in the United States, rev'd edn (Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, 1983).
19. See Lamis, The Two Party South, p. 20; Louis M. Seagull, Southern Republicanism (New York: Wiley, 1975); and James L. Sundquist, Dynamics of the Party System: Alignment and Realignment of Political Parties in the United States, rev'd edn (Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, 1983).
20. Sean Wilentz, 'Color blinded: according to Dinesh D'Souza, racism is history', New Yorker, 2 October 1995.
21. Confidential Memorandum to President Truman, 19 November 1947, Clark M. Clifford Papers (Harry S. Truman Library, Independence, Montana). This is a paraphrase of Harvard Sitkoff's description of the memo in 'Harry Truman and the Election of 1948: The Coming of Age of Civil Rights in American Politics', Journal of Southern History, 37 (1971), 597-616, p. 597.
22. See Thomas Edsall, 'Jackson, Robb tussle over Democratic strategy', Washington Post, 11 March 1989; and E. J. Dionne Jr, 'Party told to win middle-class vote', New York Times, 12 March 1989.
23. See Thomas Edsall, 'Jackson, Robb tussle over Democratic strategy', Washington Post, 11 March 1989; and E. J. Dionne Jr, 'Party told to win middle-class vote', New York Times, 12 March 1989.
24. For representative examples, Peter Brown, Minority Party: Why the Democrats Face Defeat in 1992 and Beyond (Washington, DC: Regnery Gateway, 1991); Edsall with Edsall, Chain Reaction; and Phillips, The Emerging Republican Majority.
25. For representative examples, Peter Brown, Minority Party: Why the Democrats Face Defeat in 1992 and Beyond (Washington, DC: Regnery Gateway, 1991); Edsall with Edsall, Chain Reaction; and Phillips, The Emerging Republican Majority.
26. For representative examples, Peter Brown, Minority Party: Why the Democrats Face Defeat in 1992 and Beyond (Washington, DC: Regnery Gateway, 1991); Edsall with Edsall, Chain Reaction; and Phillips, The Emerging Republican Majority.
27. Oreskes, 'The Civil Rights Act, 25 years later'.
28. Gerald M. Pomper, 'From Confusion to Clarity: Issues and the American Voter', American Political Science Review, 66 (1972), 415-28.
29. V. O. Key Jr, 'A Theory of Critical Elections', Journal of Politics, 17 (1955), 3-18, p. 4.
30. The term 'interest aggregations' is employed by E. E. Schattschneider, The Semisovereign People: A Realist's View of Democracy in America (New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1975). On the collapse of the New Deal, see Edsall with Edsall, Chain Reaction; and Phillips, The Emerging Republican Majority.
31. The term 'interest aggregations' is employed by E. E. Schattschneider, The Semisovereign People: A Realist's View of Democracy in America (New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1975). On the collapse of the New Deal, see Edsall with Edsall, Chain Reaction; and Phillips, The Emerging Republican Majority.
32. The term 'interest aggregations' is employed by E. E. Schattschneider, The Semisovereign People: A Realist's View of Democracy in America (New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1975). On the collapse of the New Deal, see Edsall with Edsall, Chain Reaction; and Phillips, The Emerging Republican Majority.
33. Carmines and Stimson, 'Issue Evolution, Partisan Replacement, and Normal Partisan Change'; Carmines and Stimson, 'On the Structure and Sequence of Issue Evolution'; and Carmines and Stimson, Issue Evolution and the Transformation of American Politics.
34. Carmines and Stimson, 'Issue Evolution, Partisan Replacement, and Normal Partisan Change'; Carmines and Stimson, 'On the Structure and Sequence of Issue Evolution'; and Carmines and Stimson, Issue Evolution and the Transformation of American Politics.
35. Carmines and Stimson, 'Issue Evolution, Partisan Replacement, and Normal Partisan Change'; Carmines and Stimson, 'On the Structure and Sequence of Issue Evolution'; and Carmines and Stimson, Issue Evolution and the Transformation of American Politics.
36. V. O. Key Jr, Southern Politics in State and Nation, new edn (Knoxville: The University of Tennessee Press, 1984), p. 277.
37. Davidson employs the phrase in Race and Class in Texas Politics, p. 237. See also James M. Glaser, Race, Campaign Politics, and Realignment in the South (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1996).
38. Davidson employs the phrase in Race and Class in Texas Politics, p. 237. See also James M. Glaser, Race, Campaign Politics, and Realignment in the South (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1996).
39. Lamis, The Two Party South, p. 23.
40. Frank Friedel, FDR and the South (Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University Press, 1965), discusses the first point. On the second, James T. Patterson, Congressional Conservatism and the New Deal: The Growth of a Conservative Coalition in Congress, 1933-1939 (Lexington: University of Kentucky Press, 1967); and Leon D. Epstein, Political Parties in the American Mold (Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 1986).
41. Frank Friedel, FDR and the South (Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University Press, 1965), discusses the first point. On the second, James T. Patterson, Congressional Conservatism and the New Deal: The Growth of a Conservative Coalition in Congress, 1933-1939 (Lexington: University of Kentucky Press, 1967); and Leon D. Epstein, Political Parties in the American Mold (Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 1986).
42. Frank Friedel, FDR and the South (Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University Press, 1965), discusses the first point. On the second, James T. Patterson, Congressional Conservatism and the New Deal: The Growth of a Conservative Coalition in Congress, 1933-1939 (Lexington: University of Kentucky Press, 1967); and Leon D. Epstein, Political Parties in the American Mold (Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 1986).
43. Earl Black and Merle Black, Politics and Society in the South (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1987).
44. See Lamis, The Two Party South; Richard Nadeau and Harold W. Stanley, 'Class Polarization in Partisanship among Native White Southerners', American Journal of Political Science, 37 (1993), 900-19; Seagull, Southern Republicanism.
45. See Lamis, The Two Party South; Richard Nadeau and Harold W. Stanley, 'Class Polarization in Partisanship among Native White Southerners', American Journal of Political Science, 37 (1993), 900-19; Seagull, Southern Republicanism.
46. See Lamis, The Two Party South; Richard Nadeau and Harold W. Stanley, 'Class Polarization in Partisanship among Native White Southerners', American Journal of Political Science, 37 (1993), 900-19; Seagull, Southern Republicanism.
47. See Abramowitz, 'Issue Evolution Reconsidered'.
48. For instance, Walter Dean Burnham, Critical Elections and the Mainsprings of American Politics (New York: Norton, 1970); and Sundquist, Dynamics of the Party System.
49. For instance, Walter Dean Burnham, Critical Elections and the Mainsprings of American Politics (New York: Norton, 1970); and Sundquist, Dynamics of the Party System.
50. For instance, in 'Southern Republicanism', Seagull uses proxies for both the social welfare issue axis and racial threat; the former he measures using the percentage working in the white-collar sector, while the latter he operationalizes using the proportion of African-Americans in the local population.
51. Christopher Achen, 'Proxy Variables and Incorrect Signs on Regression Coefficients', Political Methodology, 11 (1985), 298-316; and Jonathan A. Cowden and Thomas Hartley, 'Complex Variables and Sociotropic Voting', in John R. Freeman, ed., Political Analysis (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1992).
52. Christopher Achen, 'Proxy Variables and Incorrect Signs on Regression Coefficients', Political Methodology, 11 (1985), 298-316; and Jonathan A. Cowden and Thomas Hartley, 'Complex Variables and Sociotropic Voting', in John R. Freeman, ed., Political Analysis (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1992).
53. See Abramowitz, 'Issue Evolution'; Campbell, 'Patterns of Change'; and Wolfinger and Arseneau, 'Partisan Change in the South'.
54. See Abramowitz, 'Issue Evolution'; Campbell, 'Patterns of Change'; and Wolfinger and Arseneau, 'Partisan Change in the South'.
55. See Abramowitz, 'Issue Evolution'; Campbell, 'Patterns of Change'; and Wolfinger and Arseneau, 'Partisan Change in the South'.
56. For example, Angus Campbell, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller and Donald E. Stokes, The American Voter (New York: Wiley, 1960); Philip E. Converse and Gregory B. Markus, '"Plus ça change …": The New CPS Election Study Panel', American Political Science Review, 73 (1979), 32-49; and Warren E. Miller and J. Merrill Shanks, The New American Voter (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1996).
57. For example, Angus Campbell, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller and Donald E. Stokes, The American Voter (New York: Wiley, 1960); Philip E. Converse and Gregory B. Markus, '"Plus ça change …": The New CPS Election Study Panel', American Political Science Review, 73 (1979), 32-49; and Warren E. Miller and J. Merrill Shanks, The New American Voter (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1996).
58. For example, Angus Campbell, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller and Donald E. Stokes, The American Voter (New York: Wiley, 1960); Philip E. Converse and Gregory B. Markus, '"Plus ça change …": The New CPS Election Study Panel', American Political Science Review, 73 (1979), 32-49; and Warren E. Miller and J. Merrill Shanks, The New American Voter (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1996).
59. On the first point, see John R. Petrocik, 'An Analysis of Intransitivities in the Index of Party Identification', Political Methodology, 1 (1974), 31-47; on the second, Bruce E. Keith, David B. Magleby, Candice J. Nelson, Elizabeth A. Orr, Mark C. Westlye and Raymond Wolfinger, The Myth of the Independent Voter (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1992).
60. On the first point, see John R. Petrocik, 'An Analysis of Intransitivities in the Index of Party Identification', Political Methodology, 1 (1974), 31-47; on the second, Bruce E. Keith, David B. Magleby, Candice J. Nelson, Elizabeth A. Orr, Mark C. Westlye and Raymond Wolfinger, The Myth of the Independent Voter (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1992).
61. Keith et al., The Myth of the Independent Voter; but see Donald Philip Green and Eric Shickler, 'Multiple-Measure Assessments of Party Identification', Public Opinion Quarterly, 57 (1993), 503-35.
62. Keith et al., The Myth of the Independent Voter; but see Donald Philip Green and Eric Shickler, 'Multiple-Measure Assessments of Party Identification', Public Opinion Quarterly, 57 (1993), 503-35.
63. Carmines and Stimson refer to this set of attitudes alternatively as 'racial conservatism' and 'desegregation'. See 'The Racial Reorientation of American Politics' and Issue Evolution and the Transformation of American Politics.
64. The first principal component explains at least 45 per cent of the variance in each year, and the average percentage of the variance explained by the first principal component is 60.8. For more on principal components analysis, Harry Harman, Modern Factor Analysis, 3rd exp'd edn (Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1976).
65. Lee J. Cronbach, 'Coefficient Alpha and the Internal Structure of Tests', Psychometrika, 16 (1952), 297-334; and Jum C. Nunnally, Psychometric Theory, 2nd edn (New York: McGraw Hill, 1978).
66. Lee J. Cronbach, 'Coefficient Alpha and the Internal Structure of Tests', Psychometrika, 16 (1952), 297-334; and Jum C. Nunnally, Psychometric Theory, 2nd edn (New York: McGraw Hill, 1978).
67. For instance, John G. Geer, 'New Deal Issues and the American Electorate, 1952-1988', Political Behavior, 14 (1992), 45-65; and Allen J. Matusow, The Unraveling of America: A History of Liberalism in the 1960s (New York: Harper and Row, 1984).
68. For instance, John G. Geer, 'New Deal Issues and the American Electorate, 1952-1988', Political Behavior, 14 (1992), 45-65; and Allen J. Matusow, The Unraveling of America: A History of Liberalism in the 1960s (New York: Harper and Row, 1984).
69. On average, the first principal component explains 51.7 per cent of the variance in the items.
70. Abramowitz, 'Issue Evolution Reconsidered', pp. 4-5.
71. On the importance of foreign policy and defence issues, see Abramowitz, 'Issue Evolution Reconsidered', and Lamis, The Two Party South; on economic issues, see Morris P. Fiorina, Retrospective Voting in American National Elections (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1981); on cultural issues, Richard M. Scammon and Ben J. Wattenberg, The Real Majority (New York: Donald I. Fine, Inc., 1992); on the role of Roman Catholicism in the 1960 election, Theodore H. White, The Making of the President 1960 (New York: Atheneum, 1961).
72. On the importance of foreign policy and defence issues, see Abramowitz, 'Issue Evolution Reconsidered', and Lamis, The Two Party South; on economic issues, see Morris P. Fiorina, Retrospective Voting in American National Elections (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1981); on cultural issues, Richard M. Scammon and Ben J. Wattenberg, The Real Majority (New York: Donald I. Fine, Inc., 1992); on the role of Roman Catholicism in the 1960 election, Theodore H. White, The Making of the President 1960 (New York: Atheneum, 1961).
73. On the importance of foreign policy and defence issues, see Abramowitz, 'Issue Evolution Reconsidered', and Lamis, The Two Party South; on economic issues, see Morris P. Fiorina, Retrospective Voting in American National Elections (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1981); on cultural issues, Richard M. Scammon and Ben J. Wattenberg, The Real Majority (New York: Donald I. Fine, Inc., 1992); on the role of Roman Catholicism in the 1960 election, Theodore H. White, The Making of the President 1960 (New York: Atheneum, 1961).
74. On the importance of foreign policy and defence issues, see Abramowitz, 'Issue Evolution Reconsidered', and Lamis, The Two Party South; on economic issues, see Morris P. Fiorina, Retrospective Voting in American National Elections (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1981); on cultural issues, Richard M. Scammon and Ben J. Wattenberg, The Real Majority (New York: Donald I. Fine, Inc., 1992); on the role of Roman Catholicism in the 1960 election, Theodore H. White, The Making of the President 1960 (New York: Atheneum, 1961).
75. On the importance of foreign policy and defence issues, see Abramowitz, 'Issue Evolution Reconsidered', and Lamis, The Two Party South; on economic issues, see Morris P. Fiorina, Retrospective Voting in American National Elections (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1981); on cultural issues, Richard M. Scammon and Ben J. Wattenberg, The Real Majority (New York: Donald I. Fine, Inc., 1992); on the role of Roman Catholicism in the 1960 election, Theodore H. White, The Making of the President 1960 (New York: Atheneum, 1961).
76. Bernard R. Berelson, Paul F. Lazarsfeld and William McPhee, Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign (Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1954); Norman H. Nie, Sidney Verba and John R. Petrocik, The Changing American Voter (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1979); Petrocik, Party Coalitions; and Karen Kaufmann and John R. Petrocik, 'The Changing Politics of American Men: Understanding the Sources of the Gender Gap', American Journal of Political Science, 43 (1999), 864-87.
77. Bernard R. Berelson, Paul F. Lazarsfeld and William McPhee, Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign (Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1954); Norman H. Nie, Sidney Verba and John R. Petrocik, The Changing American Voter (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1979); Petrocik, Party Coalitions; and Karen Kaufmann and John R. Petrocik, 'The Changing Politics of American Men: Understanding the Sources of the Gender Gap', American Journal of Political Science, 43 (1999), 864-87.
78. Bernard R. Berelson, Paul F. Lazarsfeld and William McPhee, Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign (Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1954); Norman H. Nie, Sidney Verba and John R. Petrocik, The Changing American Voter (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1979); Petrocik, Party Coalitions; and Karen Kaufmann and John R. Petrocik, 'The Changing Politics of American Men: Understanding the Sources of the Gender Gap', American Journal of Political Science, 43 (1999), 864-87.
79. Bernard R. Berelson, Paul F. Lazarsfeld and William McPhee, Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign (Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1954); Norman H. Nie, Sidney Verba and John R. Petrocik, The Changing American Voter (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1979); Petrocik, Party Coalitions; and Karen Kaufmann and John R. Petrocik, 'The Changing Politics of American Men: Understanding the Sources of the Gender Gap', American Journal of Political Science, 43 (1999), 864-87.
80. The dummy variable for education is 'on' (1) if the respondent has a high school degree and 'off' (0) otherwise.
81. The null hypothesis is that the restricted model fits the data as well as the unconstrained one. For more on nesting and hypothesis testing, see William H. Greene, Econometric Analysis, 3rd edn (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1997).
82. Gary King, Unifying Political Methodology: The Likelihood Theory of Statistical Inference (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989). Since the main effects parameter is statistically indistinguishable from 0, it is set at 0 in the first difference analyses.
83. For instance, Philip E. Converse, 'The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics', in David E. Apter, ed., Ideology and Discontent (New York: The Free Press, 1964).
84. On the importance of race issues, see Paul Frymer, Uneasy Alliances: Race and Party Competition in America (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1999). On the role of social welfare issues, see Matusow, The Unraveling of America; Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr, The Coming of the New Deal (Kingsport, Tenn.: Kingsport Press, 1959); and Sundquist, Dynamics of the Party System.
85. On the importance of race issues, see Paul Frymer, Uneasy Alliances: Race and Party Competition in America (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1999). On the role of social welfare issues, see Matusow, The Unraveling of America; Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr, The Coming of the New Deal (Kingsport, Tenn.: Kingsport Press, 1959); and Sundquist, Dynamics of the Party System.
86. On the importance of race issues, see Paul Frymer, Uneasy Alliances: Race and Party Competition in America (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1999). On the role of social welfare issues, see Matusow, The Unraveling of America; Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr, The Coming of the New Deal (Kingsport, Tenn.: Kingsport Press, 1959); and Sundquist, Dynamics of the Party System.
87. On the importance of race issues, see Paul Frymer, Uneasy Alliances: Race and Party Competition in America (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1999). On the role of social welfare issues, see Matusow, The Unraveling of America; Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr, The Coming of the New Deal (Kingsport, Tenn.: Kingsport Press, 1959); and Sundquist, Dynamics of the Party System.
88. On the first point, see Mary C. Brennan, Turning Right in the Sixties: The Conservative Capture of the GOP (Chapel Hill: The University of North Carolina Press, 1995); Nicol C. Rae, The Decline and Fall of the Liberal Republicans: From 1952 to the Present (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1989); and Carmines and Stimson, Issue Evolution. On the second, see Rae, The Decline and Fall of Liberal Republicans; Rae, Southern Democrats (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1994).
89. On the first point, see Mary C. Brennan, Turning Right in the Sixties: The Conservative Capture of the GOP (Chapel Hill: The University of North Carolina Press, 1995); Nicol C. Rae, The Decline and Fall of the Liberal Republicans: From 1952 to the Present (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1989); and Carmines and Stimson, Issue Evolution. On the second, see Rae, The Decline and Fall of Liberal Republicans; Rae, Southern Democrats (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1994).
90. On the first point, see Mary C. Brennan, Turning Right in the Sixties: The Conservative Capture of the GOP (Chapel Hill: The University of North Carolina Press, 1995); Nicol C. Rae, The Decline and Fall of the Liberal Republicans: From 1952 to the Present (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1989); and Carmines and Stimson, Issue Evolution. On the second, see Rae, The Decline and Fall of Liberal Republicans; Rae, Southern Democrats (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1994).
91. On the first point, see Mary C. Brennan, Turning Right in the Sixties: The Conservative Capture of the GOP (Chapel Hill: The University of North Carolina Press, 1995); Nicol C. Rae, The Decline and Fall of the Liberal Republicans: From 1952 to the Present (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1989); and Carmines and Stimson, Issue Evolution. On the second, see Rae, The Decline and Fall of Liberal Republicans; Rae, Southern Democrats (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1994).
92. On the first point, see Mary C. Brennan, Turning Right in the Sixties: The Conservative Capture of the GOP (Chapel Hill: The University of North Carolina Press, 1995); Nicol C. Rae, The Decline and Fall of the Liberal Republicans: From 1952 to the Present (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1989); and Carmines and Stimson, Issue Evolution. On the second, see Rae, The Decline and Fall of Liberal Republicans; Rae, Southern Democrats (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1994).
93. For examples, Brennan, Turning Right in the 1960s; Carmines and Stimson, Issue Evolution; Girish J. Gulati, 'An Analysis of the Voting Behavior of Southern Democrats in the House of Representatives, 1983-1992' (Southern Political Science Association Annual Meetings at Atlanta, Ga, 1994); M. V. Hood III and Irwin L. Morris, 'Boll Weevils and Roll-Call Voting: A Study in Time and Space', Legislative Studies Quarterly, 23 (1998), 245-69; M. V. Hood III, Quentin Kidd and Irwin L. Morris, 'Of Byrd[s] and Bumpers: Using Democratic Senators to Analyze Political Change in the South, 1960-1995', American Journal of Political Science, 43 (1999), 465-87.
94. For examples, Brennan, Turning Right in the 1960s; Carmines and Stimson, Issue Evolution; Girish J. Gulati, 'An Analysis of the Voting Behavior of Southern Democrats in the House of Representatives, 1983-1992' (Southern Political Science Association Annual Meetings at Atlanta, Ga, 1994); M. V. Hood III and Irwin L. Morris, 'Boll Weevils and Roll-Call Voting: A Study in Time and Space', Legislative Studies Quarterly, 23 (1998), 245-69; M. V. Hood III, Quentin Kidd and Irwin L. Morris, 'Of Byrd[s] and Bumpers: Using Democratic Senators to Analyze Political Change in the South, 1960-1995', American Journal of Political Science, 43 (1999), 465-87.
95. For examples, Brennan, Turning Right in the 1960s; Carmines and Stimson, Issue Evolution; Girish J. Gulati, 'An Analysis of the Voting Behavior of Southern Democrats in the House of Representatives, 1983-1992' (Southern Political Science Association Annual Meetings at Atlanta, Ga, 1994); M. V. Hood III and Irwin L. Morris, 'Boll Weevils and Roll-Call Voting: A Study in Time and Space', Legislative Studies Quarterly, 23 (1998), 245-69; M. V. Hood III, Quentin Kidd and Irwin L. Morris, 'Of Byrd[s] and Bumpers: Using Democratic Senators to Analyze Political Change in the South, 1960-1995', American Journal of Political Science, 43 (1999), 465-87.
96. For examples, Brennan, Turning Right in the 1960s; Carmines and Stimson, Issue Evolution; Girish J. Gulati, 'An Analysis of the Voting Behavior of Southern Democrats in the House of Representatives, 1983-1992' (Southern Political Science Association Annual Meetings at Atlanta, Ga, 1994); M. V. Hood III and Irwin L. Morris, 'Boll Weevils and Roll-Call Voting: A Study in Time and Space', Legislative Studies Quarterly, 23 (1998), 245-69; M. V. Hood III, Quentin Kidd and Irwin L. Morris, 'Of Byrd[s] and Bumpers: Using Democratic Senators to Analyze Political Change in the South, 1960-1995', American Journal of Political Science, 43 (1999), 465-87.
97. For examples, Brennan, Turning Right in the 1960s; Carmines and Stimson, Issue Evolution; Girish J. Gulati, 'An Analysis of the Voting Behavior of Southern Democrats in the House of Representatives, 1983-1992' (Southern Political Science Association Annual Meetings at Atlanta, Ga, 1994); M. V. Hood III and Irwin L. Morris, 'Boll Weevils and Roll-Call Voting: A Study in Time and Space', Legislative Studies Quarterly, 23 (1998), 245-69; M. V. Hood III, Quentin Kidd and Irwin L. Morris, 'Of Byrd[s] and Bumpers: Using Democratic Senators to Analyze Political Change in the South, 1960-1995', American Journal of Political Science, 43 (1999), 465-87.
98. Campbell et al., The American Voter.
99. Byron E. Shafer, ed., The End of Realignment? Interpreting American Electoral Eras (Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 1991).
100. On the first point, see Joel Silbey, 'Beyond Realignment and Realignment Theory: American Political Eras, 1789-1989', in Shafer, ed., The End of Realignment? Evert Carll Ladd, 'Like Waiting for Godot: The Uselessness of "Realignment" for Understanding Change in Contemporary American Politics', in Shafer, ed., The End of Realignment? On the second, see Martin P. Wattenberg, The Decline of American Political Parties: 1952-1992 (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1994).
101. On the first point, see Joel Silbey, 'Beyond Realignment and Realignment Theory: American Political Eras, 1789-1989', in Shafer, ed., The End of Realignment? Evert Carll Ladd, 'Like Waiting for Godot: The Uselessness of "Realignment" for Understanding Change in Contemporary American Politics', in Shafer, ed., The End of Realignment? On the second, see Martin P. Wattenberg, The Decline of American Political Parties: 1952-1992 (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1994).
102. On the first point, see Joel Silbey, 'Beyond Realignment and Realignment Theory: American Political Eras, 1789-1989', in Shafer, ed., The End of Realignment? Evert Carll Ladd, 'Like Waiting for Godot: The Uselessness of "Realignment" for Understanding Change in Contemporary American Politics', in Shafer, ed., The End of Realignment? On the second, see Martin P. Wattenberg, The Decline of American Political Parties: 1952-1992 (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1994).
103. Ladd, 'Like Waiting for Godot'.
104. Carmines and Stimson, 'The Racial Reorientation of American Politics', p. 202.
105. See Sundquist, Dynamics of the Party System; also, Peter F. Nardulli, 'The Concept of a Critical Realignment, Electoral Behavior, and Political Change', American Political Science Review, 89 (1995), 10-22.
106. See Sundquist, Dynamics of the Party System; also, Peter F. Nardulli, 'The Concept of a Critical Realignment, Electoral Behavior, and Political Change', American Political Science Review, 89 (1995), 10-22.