The impact of pipeline drugs on drug spending growth

Health Affairs

Volumn 20, Issue 5, 2001, Pages 210-215

  Mullins, C Daniel ^a   Wang, Junling ^c   Palumbo, Francis B ^c   Stuart, Bruch ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND SCHOOL OF PHARMACY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND   (United States)

^c NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

NEW DRUG;

ARTICLE; DRUG COST; ECONOMICS; HEALTH CARE COST; HUMAN; UNITED STATES;

DRUG COSTS; DRUGS, INVESTIGATIONAL; HEALTH EXPENDITURES; HUMANS; UNITED STATES;

EID: 0035462292     PISSN: 02782715     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1377/hlthaff.20.5.210     Document Type: Article

References (20)

1. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, National Health Care Expenditures Projections Tables, March 2001, 〈hcfa.gov/stats/NHE-Proj/proj2000/tables〉 (30 March 2001); and CMS, National Health Care Expenditures Projections Tables, January 2000, 〈hcfa.gov/stats/NHE-Proj/proj1998/tables〉 (30 March 2001).
2. "Products in the Pipeline," What's in the Pipeline (A supplement to MedAdNews, July 1999): 17-148. In Phase II clinical trials, the study drug or treatment is given to a larger group of people (100-300) to see if it is effective and to further evaluate its safety. In Phase III studies, the study drug or treatment is given to large groups of people (1,000-3,000) to confirm its effectiveness, monitor side effects, compare it to commonly used treatments, and collect information that will allow the drug or treatment to be used safely. National Institutes of Health, (9 July 2001).
3. M. Montagne, "Drug Use and the Pharmaceutical Sector in the United States," in Introduction to Health Care Delivery: A Primer for Pharmacists, ed. R.L. McCarthy (Gaithersburg, Md.: Aspen, 1998).
4. R.W. Dubois et al., "Explaining Drug Spending Trends: Does Perception Match Reality?" Health Affairs (Mar/Apr 2000): 231-239.
5. Barents Group LLC, Factors Affecting the Growth of Prescription Drug Expenditures (Washington: NIHCM Foundation, 9 July 1999).
6. Express Scripts, 1999 Drug Trend Report, 〈express-scripts.com/newsviews/industryreports/drugtrendreport.htm〉 (30 January 2001).
7. Barents Group, Factors Affecting the Growth.
8. Express Scripts, 1999 Drug Trend Report.
9. CMS, "National Health Expenditure Projections: 2000-2010," March 2001, Table 11, 〈hcfa. gov/stats/NHE-Proj/proj2000/tables/tll.htm〉 (16 March 2001).
10. "The Top 200 Drugs, Drugs Dispensed Most Often in U.S. Community Pharmacies, Total Prescriptions (New and Refill), 2,140,799 in Sample," American Druggist (February 1996): 19-20; "The Top 200 Drugs, Drugs Dispensed Most Often in U.S. Community Pharmacies, Total Prescriptions - New and Refill (2,248,672,000 in sample)," American Druggist (February 1997): 32, 34; "The Top 200 Drugs, Drugs Dispensed Most Often in U.S. Community Pharmacies, Total Prescriptions - New and Refill (2,355,489,000 in Sample)," American Druggist (February 1998): 4850; and "The Top 200 Drugs, Drugs Dispensed Most Often in U.S. Community Pharmacies, Total Prescriptions - New and Refill (2,486,066,000 in Sample)," American Druggist (February 1999): 42-43.
11. "The Top 200 Drugs, Drugs Dispensed Most Often in U.S. Community Pharmacies, Total Prescriptions (New and Refill), 2,140,799 in Sample," American Druggist (February 1996): 19-20; "The Top 200 Drugs, Drugs Dispensed Most Often in U.S. Community Pharmacies, Total Prescriptions - New and Refill (2,248,672,000 in sample)," American Druggist (February 1997): 32, 34; "The Top 200 Drugs, Drugs Dispensed Most Often in U.S. Community Pharmacies, Total Prescriptions - New and Refill (2,355,489,000 in Sample)," American Druggist (February 1998): 4850; and "The Top 200 Drugs, Drugs Dispensed Most Often in U.S. Community Pharmacies, Total Prescriptions - New and Refill (2,486,066,000 in Sample)," American Druggist (February 1999): 42-43.
12. "The Top 200 Drugs, Drugs Dispensed Most Often in U.S. Community Pharmacies, Total Prescriptions (New and Refill), 2,140,799 in Sample," American Druggist (February 1996): 19-20; "The Top 200 Drugs, Drugs Dispensed Most Often in U.S. Community Pharmacies, Total Prescriptions - New and Refill (2,248,672,000 in sample)," American Druggist (February 1997): 32, 34; "The Top 200 Drugs, Drugs Dispensed Most Often in U.S. Community Pharmacies, Total Prescriptions - New and Refill (2,355,489,000 in Sample)," American Druggist (February 1998): 4850; and "The Top 200 Drugs, Drugs Dispensed Most Often in U.S. Community Pharmacies, Total Prescriptions - New and Refill (2,486,066,000 in Sample)," American Druggist (February 1999): 42-43.
13. "The Top 200 Drugs, Drugs Dispensed Most Often in U.S. Community Pharmacies, Total Prescriptions (New and Refill), 2,140,799 in Sample," American Druggist (February 1996): 19-20; "The Top 200 Drugs, Drugs Dispensed Most Often in U.S. Community Pharmacies, Total Prescriptions - New and Refill (2,248,672,000 in sample)," American Druggist (February 1997): 32, 34; "The Top 200 Drugs, Drugs Dispensed Most Often in U.S. Community Pharmacies, Total Prescriptions - New and Refill (2,355,489,000 in Sample)," American Druggist (February 1998): 4850; and "The Top 200 Drugs, Drugs Dispensed Most Often in U.S. Community Pharmacies, Total Prescriptions - New and Refill (2,486,066,000 in Sample)," American Druggist (February 1999): 42-43.
14. Technically, the result is obtained through division, not subtraction, since factors accounting for growth in spending are multiplicative, not additive.
15. American Druggist reports the original raw data for the top 200 drugs and the aggregate for the marketplace each year, along with statistics about how these numbers have changed over time.
16. Since drugs in a growth phase are more likely to remain on the top 100 list for two consecutive years, using a fixed basket of only those drugs that are among the top 100 drugs for two consecutive years would overestimate the spending increases.
17. It should be noted that we are basing projections off the CMS estimates to illustrate a potential range without the assumption that these estimates would represent the midpoints.
18. More detailed information may be obtained from .
19. The most recent year shows an increase over the previous year. The 2000 number is incorporated in the 7.5 percent compounded decline.
20. CMS, National Health Care Expenditures Projections Tables.