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Model output value of "estimated transport success" was based on the density of larvae at day 28 that were within 2 km of the target island, standardized to mean daily settlement density observed at the source island of Barbados. Here, we assume that the settlement rates measured at Barbados are a reasonable indicator (order of magnitude) of typical rates elsewhere. Thus, to sustain a downstream population at the same population density as the source and assuming no self-replenishment from the downstream population, the estimated transport success must equal 100%. Assuming partial self-replenishment (say, 70%), then the estimated transport success must be ∼30%. Finer resolution is not reasonable for the simplified assumptions of this model. Assuming some accumulation of larvae prior to day 28 will increase the estimated transport success, for example, accumulating over the last 10 days of the larval period will potentially increase transport success by a factor of 10.
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The numerical model is a version of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM) (23), configured to simulate the North Atlantic circulation. The Lagrangian particle simulations have a stochastic turbulent addition to the flow to account for the subgrid scale variance in velocity that is not simulated by the numerical model. This assures that the amount of variability matches that found in drifters in this region of the ocean (24).
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We thank many people for field and laboratory help, especially S. Dorsey, T. Rotunno, E. Schultz, and T. Wilson. This work was funded by NSF and the Office of Naval Research.
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