Habit formation and political behaviour: Evidence of consuetude in voter turnout

British Journal of Political Science

Volumn 30, Issue 4, 2000, Pages 561-573

  Green, Donald P ^a   Shachar, Ron ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0034400140     PISSN: 00071234     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S0007123400000247     Document Type: Article

References (41)

1. Angus Campbell, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller and Donald E. Stokes The American Voter (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1960); Orley Ashenfelter and Stanley Kelley, 'Determinants of Participation in Presidential Elections', Journal of Law and Economics, 18 (1975), 695-733; and Raymond E. Wolfinger and Steven J. Rosenstone, Who Votes? (New Haven Conn.: Yale University Press, 1980).
2. Angus Campbell, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller and Donald E. Stokes The American Voter (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1960); Orley Ashenfelter and Stanley Kelley, 'Determinants of Participation in Presidential Elections', Journal of Law and Economics, 18 (1975), 695-733; and Raymond E. Wolfinger and Steven J. Rosenstone, Who Votes? (New Haven Conn.: Yale University Press, 1980).
3. Angus Campbell, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller and Donald E. Stokes The American Voter (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1960); Orley Ashenfelter and Stanley Kelley, 'Determinants of Participation in Presidential Elections', Journal of Law and Economics, 18 (1975), 695-733; and Raymond E. Wolfinger and Steven J. Rosenstone, Who Votes? (New Haven Conn.: Yale University Press, 1980).
4. Robert S. Erikson, 'Why do People Vote? Because they are Registered', American Politics Quarterly, 9 (1981), 259-76; Benjamin Highton, 'Easy Registration and Voter Turnout', Journal of Politics, 59 (1997), 565-75; Benjamin Highton and Raymond E. Wolfinger, 'Estimating the Effects of the National Voter Registration Act of 1993', Political Behaviour, 20 (1998) 79-104; and Steven J. Rosenstone and Raymond E. Wolfinger, 'Effects of Registration Laws on Voter Turnout', American Political Science Review, 72 (1978), 22-45.
5. Robert S. Erikson, 'Why do People Vote? Because they are Registered', American Politics Quarterly, 9 (1981), 259-76; Benjamin Highton, 'Easy Registration and Voter Turnout', Journal of Politics, 59 (1997), 565-75; Benjamin Highton and Raymond E. Wolfinger, 'Estimating the Effects of the National Voter Registration Act of 1993', Political Behaviour, 20 (1998) 79-104; and Steven J. Rosenstone and Raymond E. Wolfinger, 'Effects of Registration Laws on Voter Turnout', American Political Science Review, 72 (1978), 22-45.
6. Robert S. Erikson, 'Why do People Vote? Because they are Registered', American Politics Quarterly, 9 (1981), 259-76; Benjamin Highton, 'Easy Registration and Voter Turnout', Journal of Politics, 59 (1997), 565-75; Benjamin Highton and Raymond E. Wolfinger, 'Estimating the Effects of the National Voter Registration Act of 1993', Political Behaviour, 20 (1998) 79-104; and Steven J. Rosenstone and Raymond E. Wolfinger, 'Effects of Registration Laws on Voter Turnout', American Political Science Review, 72 (1978), 22-45.
7. Robert S. Erikson, 'Why do People Vote? Because they are Registered', American Politics Quarterly, 9 (1981), 259-76; Benjamin Highton, 'Easy Registration and Voter Turnout', Journal of Politics, 59 (1997), 565-75; Benjamin Highton and Raymond E. Wolfinger, 'Estimating the Effects of the National Voter Registration Act of 1993', Political Behaviour, 20 (1998) 79-104; and Steven J. Rosenstone and Raymond E. Wolfinger, 'Effects of Registration Laws on Voter Turnout', American Political Science Review, 72 (1978), 22-45.
8. Also unsuitable is the concept of rational addiction which focuses on the trade-offs between current and future consumption given that past drug use enhances the desire for present consumption but increases the quantity of drugs needed to achieve the same physiological reaction. It is not clear that such intertemporal choices apply to the case of voter turnout. See Gary S. Becker and Kevin M. Murphy, 'A Theory of Rational Addiction', Journal of Political Economy, 96 (1988), 675-700.
9. Steven E. Finkel, 'Reciprocal Effects of Participation and Political Efficacy', American Journal of Political Science, 29 (1985), 891-913.
10. Richard A. Brody and Paul M. Sniderman, 'From Life Space to Polling Place: The Relevance of Personal Concerns for Voting Behaviour', British Journal of Political Science, 7 (1977), 337-60.
11. Brody and Sniderman, 'From Life Space to Polling Place: The Relevance of Personal Concerns for Voting Behaviour', p. 349.
12. Robert E. Kraut and John B. McConahay, 'How Being Interviewed Affects Voting: An Experiment', Public Opinion Quarterly, 37 (1973), 398-406; and Richard F. Yalch, 'Pre-election Interview Effects on Voter Turnout', Public Opinion Quarterly, 40 (1976), 331-6.
13. Robert E. Kraut and John B. McConahay, 'How Being Interviewed Affects Voting: An Experiment', Public Opinion Quarterly, 37 (1973), 398-406; and Richard F. Yalch, 'Pre-election Interview Effects on Voter Turnout', Public Opinion Quarterly, 40 (1976), 331-6.
14. Anthony Nownes, 'Primaries, General Elections, and Voter Turnout: A Multinomial Logit Model of the Decision to Vote', American Politics Quarterly, 20 (1992), 205-26.
15. The details of how the independent variables were coded are summarized in the Appendix which is available with the internet version of this article.
16. James Heckman, 'Statistical Models for Discrete Panel Data', in Charles F. Manski and Daniel McFadden, eds, Structural Analysis of Discrete Data with Econometric Applications (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1981); and Ron Shachar, 'A Diagnostic Test for the Sources of Persistence in Individuals' Decisions', Economic Letters, 45 (1994), 7-13.
17. James Heckman, 'Statistical Models for Discrete Panel Data', in Charles F. Manski and Daniel McFadden, eds, Structural Analysis of Discrete Data with Econometric Applications (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1981); and Ron Shachar, 'A Diagnostic Test for the Sources of Persistence in Individuals' Decisions', Economic Letters, 45 (1994), 7-13.
18. Kim Q. Hill and Patricia A. Hurley, 'Nonvoters in Voters' Clothing: The Impact of Voting Behaviour Misreporting on Voting Behaviour Research', Social Science Quarterly, 65 (1984), 195-206; but see Stanley Presser and Michael Traugott, 'Little White Lies and Social-Science Models - Correlated Response Errors in a Panel Study of Voting', Public Opinion Quarterly, 56 (1992), 77-86.
19. Kim Q. Hill and Patricia A. Hurley, 'Nonvoters in Voters' Clothing: The Impact of Voting Behaviour Misreporting on Voting Behaviour Research', Social Science Quarterly, 65 (1984), 195-206; but see Stanley Presser and Michael Traugott, 'Little White Lies and Social-Science Models - Correlated Response Errors in a Panel Study of Voting', Public Opinion Quarterly, 56 (1992), 77-86.
20. Estimates based on the registered electorate, reassuringly, do not much differ from the earlier results based on the electorate as a whole.
21. See Erik A. Hanushek and John E. Jackson, Statistical Methods for Social Scientists (New York: Academic Press, 1977), p. 269.
22. One finding that attests to the robustness of models that correct for unobserved heterogeneity is the fact that we obtain similar two-stage probit coefficients for lagged vote regardless of whether education measures are included in the model.
23. The consuetude hypothesis also comports with patterns observed in aggregate rates of voter turnout The hypothesis predicts that a surge in turnout in one presidential election should lead to above average rates of turnout in the next presidential race. In analyses not reported here, we find this pattern of autocorrelation to be marked in state-level turnout data for US presidential elections during the period 1948-96. These results are available on request from the authors.
24. Kraut and McConahay, 'How Being Interviewed Affects Voting', pp. 398-406; and Yalch, 'Pre-election Interview Effects on Voter Turnout', pp. 331-6. Although the classic get-out-the-vote experiments of Gosnell and Eldersveld each examined more than one election, they stimulated turnout before each election, making it impossible to judge whether enduring habits were established (see Harold F Gosnell, Getting out the Vote: An Experiment in the Stimulation of Voting (Chicago: University of Chicago, 1927); and Samuel J. Eldersveld, 'Experimental Propaganda Techniques and Voting Behaviour', American Political Science Review, 50 (1956), 154-65).
25. Kraut and McConahay, 'How Being Interviewed Affects Voting', pp. 398-406; and Yalch, 'Pre-election Interview Effects on Voter Turnout', pp. 331-6. Although the classic get-out-the-vote experiments of Gosnell and Eldersveld each examined more than one election, they stimulated turnout before each election, making it impossible to judge whether enduring habits were established (see Harold F Gosnell, Getting out the Vote: An Experiment in the Stimulation of Voting (Chicago: University of Chicago, 1927); and Samuel J. Eldersveld, 'Experimental Propaganda Techniques and Voting Behaviour', American Political Science Review, 50 (1956), 154-65).
26. Kraut and McConahay, 'How Being Interviewed Affects Voting', pp. 398-406; and Yalch, 'Pre-election Interview Effects on Voter Turnout', pp. 331-6. Although the classic get-out-the-vote experiments of Gosnell and Eldersveld each examined more than one election, they stimulated turnout before each election, making it impossible to judge whether enduring habits were established (see Harold F Gosnell, Getting out the Vote: An Experiment in the Stimulation of Voting (Chicago: University of Chicago, 1927); and Samuel J. Eldersveld, 'Experimental Propaganda Techniques and Voting Behaviour', American Political Science Review, 50 (1956), 154-65).
27. Kraut and McConahay, 'How Being Interviewed Affects Voting', pp. 398-406; and Yalch, 'Pre-election Interview Effects on Voter Turnout', pp. 331-6. Although the classic get-out-the-vote experiments of Gosnell and Eldersveld each examined more than one election, they stimulated turnout before each election, making it impossible to judge whether enduring habits were established (see Harold F Gosnell, Getting out the Vote: An Experiment in the Stimulation of Voting (Chicago: University of Chicago, 1927); and Samuel J. Eldersveld, 'Experimental Propaganda Techniques and Voting Behaviour', American Political Science Review, 50 (1956), 154-65).
28. Kraut and McConahay, 'How Being Interviewed Affects Voting', pp. 398-406.
29. In a similar vein, one could attribute some of the persistence in voting patterns to the fact that voter turnout is misreported in similar ways over time. However, we do not find any appreciable differences in results when using validated vote for 1972-76 (see Presser and Traugott, 'Little White Lies and Social-Science Models', pp. 77-86).
30. Finkel, 'Reciprocal Effects of Participation and Political Efficacy', pp. 891-913.
31. M. Fishbein and A. Ajzen, Belief, Attitude, Intention, and Behaviour: An Introduction to Theory and Research (Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1975).
32. National Association of Secretaries of State, 'New Millennium Project-Phase I: A Nationwide Study of 15-24 Year Old Youth' (Lexington, Ky: NASS, 1999).
33. J. Eric Oliver, 'The Effects of Eligibility Restrictions and Party Activity on Absentee Voting and Overall Turnout', American Journal of Political Science, 40 (1996), 498-513; and Robert M. Stein, 'Early Voting', Public Opinion Quarterly, 62 (1998), 57-69.
34. J. Eric Oliver, 'The Effects of Eligibility Restrictions and Party Activity on Absentee Voting and Overall Turnout', American Journal of Political Science, 40 (1996), 498-513; and Robert M. Stein, 'Early Voting', Public Opinion Quarterly, 62 (1998), 57-69.
35. Tom R. Tyler, Why People Obey the Law (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1990).
36. Michael J. Graetz, Jennifer F. Reinganum and Louis L. Wilde, 'The Tax Compliance Game: Toward an Interactive Theory of Law Enforcement', Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, 2 (1986), 1-32.
37. B. Verkplanken, H. Aarts, A. Van Knippenberg and A. Moonen, 'Habit versus Planned Behaviour: A Field Experiment', British Journal of Social Psychology, 37 (1998), 111-28.
38. Lester W. Milbrath, Political Participation: How and Why do People Get Involved in Politics? (Chicago: Rand McNally, 1965), p. 7.
39. Warren E. Miller and J. Merrill Shanks, The New American Voter (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1996).
40. Anthony Downs, An Economic Theory of Democracy (New York: Harper & Row, 1957).
41. Frances Fox Piven and Richard A. Cloward, Why Americans Don't Vote (New York: Pantheon Books, 1988).