Regional polarisation in Ukraine: Public opinion, voting and legislative behaviour

Europe - Asia Studies

Volumn 52, Issue 2, 2000, Pages 273-

  Kubicek, Paul ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WYOMING   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ELECTORAL GEOGRAPHY; LEGISLATION; PUBLIC ATTITUDE; VOTING BEHAVIOR;

UKRAINE;

EID: 0034089833     PISSN: 09668136     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/09668130050006790     Document Type: Review

References (47)

1. Claus Offe, 'Capitalism by Democratic Design? Democratic Theory Facing the Triple Transition in East Central Europe', Social Research, 58, 4, Winter 1991, pp. 865-902.
2. Juan Linz & Alfred Stepan, Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation (Baltimore, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996).
3. See Roman Solchanyk, 'The Politics of State-Building: Centre-Periphery Relations in Post-Soviet Ukraine', Europe-Asia Studies, 46, 1, January 1994, pp. 47-68; Sven Holdar, 'Torn Between East and West: The Regional Factor in Ukrainian Politics', Post-Soviet Geography, 36, 2, February 1995, pp. 112-132; Dominique Arel & Valeri Khmelko, 'The Russian Factor and Territorial Polarization in Ukraine', The Harriman Review, 9, 1-2, Spring 1996, pp. 81-91; Paul Pirie. 'National Identity and Politics in Southern and Eastern Ukraine', Europe-Asia Studies, 48, 7, November 1996, pp. 1079-1104; Lowell Barrington, 'The Geographic Component of Mass Attitudes in Ukraine', Post-Soviet Geography, 38, 10, December 1997, pp. 601-614; William Zimmerman, 'Is Ukraine a Political Community?', Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 31, 1, March 1998, pp. 43-55; and Peter Craumer & James Clem, 'Ukraine's Emerging Electoral Geography: A Regional Analysis of the 1998 Parliamentary Elections', Post-Soviet Geography and Economics, 40, 1, January 1999, pp. 1-26.
4. See Roman Solchanyk, 'The Politics of State-Building: Centre-Periphery Relations in Post-Soviet Ukraine', Europe-Asia Studies, 46, 1, January 1994, pp. 47-68; Sven Holdar, 'Torn Between East and West: The Regional Factor in Ukrainian Politics', Post-Soviet Geography, 36, 2, February 1995, pp. 112-132; Dominique Arel & Valeri Khmelko, 'The Russian Factor and Territorial Polarization in Ukraine', The Harriman Review, 9, 1-2, Spring 1996, pp. 81-91; Paul Pirie. 'National Identity and Politics in Southern and Eastern Ukraine', Europe-Asia Studies, 48, 7, November 1996, pp. 1079-1104; Lowell Barrington, 'The Geographic Component of Mass Attitudes in Ukraine', Post-Soviet Geography, 38, 10, December 1997, pp. 601-614; William Zimmerman, 'Is Ukraine a Political Community?', Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 31, 1, March 1998, pp. 43-55; and Peter Craumer & James Clem, 'Ukraine's Emerging Electoral Geography: A Regional Analysis of the 1998 Parliamentary Elections', Post-Soviet Geography and Economics, 40, 1, January 1999, pp. 1-26.
5. See Roman Solchanyk, 'The Politics of State-Building: Centre-Periphery Relations in Post-Soviet Ukraine', Europe-Asia Studies, 46, 1, January 1994, pp. 47-68; Sven Holdar, 'Torn Between East and West: The Regional Factor in Ukrainian Politics', Post-Soviet Geography, 36, 2, February 1995, pp. 112-132; Dominique Arel & Valeri Khmelko, 'The Russian Factor and Territorial Polarization in Ukraine', The Harriman Review, 9, 1-2, Spring 1996, pp. 81-91; Paul Pirie. 'National Identity and Politics in Southern and Eastern Ukraine', Europe-Asia Studies, 48, 7, November 1996, pp. 1079-1104; Lowell Barrington, 'The Geographic Component of Mass Attitudes in Ukraine', Post-Soviet Geography, 38, 10, December 1997, pp. 601-614; William Zimmerman, 'Is Ukraine a Political Community?', Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 31, 1, March 1998, pp. 43-55; and Peter Craumer & James Clem, 'Ukraine's Emerging Electoral Geography: A Regional Analysis of the 1998 Parliamentary Elections', Post-Soviet Geography and Economics, 40, 1, January 1999, pp. 1-26.
6. See Roman Solchanyk, 'The Politics of State-Building: Centre-Periphery Relations in Post-Soviet Ukraine', Europe-Asia Studies, 46, 1, January 1994, pp. 47-68; Sven Holdar, 'Torn Between East and West: The Regional Factor in Ukrainian Politics', Post-Soviet Geography, 36, 2, February 1995, pp. 112-132; Dominique Arel & Valeri Khmelko, 'The Russian Factor and Territorial Polarization in Ukraine', The Harriman Review, 9, 1-2, Spring 1996, pp. 81-91; Paul Pirie. 'National Identity and Politics in Southern and Eastern Ukraine', Europe-Asia Studies, 48, 7, November 1996, pp. 1079-1104; Lowell Barrington, 'The Geographic Component of Mass Attitudes in Ukraine', Post-Soviet Geography, 38, 10, December 1997, pp. 601-614; William Zimmerman, 'Is Ukraine a Political Community?', Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 31, 1, March 1998, pp. 43-55; and Peter Craumer & James Clem, 'Ukraine's Emerging Electoral Geography: A Regional Analysis of the 1998 Parliamentary Elections', Post-Soviet Geography and Economics, 40, 1, January 1999, pp. 1-26.
7. See Roman Solchanyk, 'The Politics of State-Building: Centre-Periphery Relations in Post-Soviet Ukraine', Europe-Asia Studies, 46, 1, January 1994, pp. 47-68; Sven Holdar, 'Torn Between East and West: The Regional Factor in Ukrainian Politics', Post-Soviet Geography, 36, 2, February 1995, pp. 112-132; Dominique Arel & Valeri Khmelko, 'The Russian Factor and Territorial Polarization in Ukraine', The Harriman Review, 9, 1-2, Spring 1996, pp. 81-91; Paul Pirie. 'National Identity and Politics in Southern and Eastern Ukraine', Europe-Asia Studies, 48, 7, November 1996, pp. 1079-1104; Lowell Barrington, 'The Geographic Component of Mass Attitudes in Ukraine', Post-Soviet Geography, 38, 10, December 1997, pp. 601-614; William Zimmerman, 'Is Ukraine a Political Community?', Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 31, 1, March 1998, pp. 43-55; and Peter Craumer & James Clem, 'Ukraine's Emerging Electoral Geography: A Regional Analysis of the 1998 Parliamentary Elections', Post-Soviet Geography and Economics, 40, 1, January 1999, pp. 1-26.
8. See Roman Solchanyk, 'The Politics of State-Building: Centre-Periphery Relations in Post-Soviet Ukraine', Europe-Asia Studies, 46, 1, January 1994, pp. 47-68; Sven Holdar, 'Torn Between East and West: The Regional Factor in Ukrainian Politics', Post-Soviet Geography, 36, 2, February 1995, pp. 112-132; Dominique Arel & Valeri Khmelko, 'The Russian Factor and Territorial Polarization in Ukraine', The Harriman Review, 9, 1-2, Spring 1996, pp. 81-91; Paul Pirie. 'National Identity and Politics in Southern and Eastern Ukraine', Europe-Asia Studies, 48, 7, November 1996, pp. 1079-1104; Lowell Barrington, 'The Geographic Component of Mass Attitudes in Ukraine', Post-Soviet Geography, 38, 10, December 1997, pp. 601-614; William Zimmerman, 'Is Ukraine a Political Community?', Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 31, 1, March 1998, pp. 43-55; and Peter Craumer & James Clem, 'Ukraine's Emerging Electoral Geography: A Regional Analysis of the 1998 Parliamentary Elections', Post-Soviet Geography and Economics, 40, 1, January 1999, pp. 1-26.
9. See Roman Solchanyk, 'The Politics of State-Building: Centre-Periphery Relations in Post-Soviet Ukraine', Europe-Asia Studies, 46, 1, January 1994, pp. 47-68; Sven Holdar, 'Torn Between East and West: The Regional Factor in Ukrainian Politics', Post-Soviet Geography, 36, 2, February 1995, pp. 112-132; Dominique Arel & Valeri Khmelko, 'The Russian Factor and Territorial Polarization in Ukraine', The Harriman Review, 9, 1-2, Spring 1996, pp. 81-91; Paul Pirie. 'National Identity and Politics in Southern and Eastern Ukraine', Europe-Asia Studies, 48, 7, November 1996, pp. 1079-1104; Lowell Barrington, 'The Geographic Component of Mass Attitudes in Ukraine', Post-Soviet Geography, 38, 10, December 1997, pp. 601-614; William Zimmerman, 'Is Ukraine a Political Community?', Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 31, 1, March 1998, pp. 43-55; and Peter Craumer & James Clem, 'Ukraine's Emerging Electoral Geography: A Regional Analysis of the 1998 Parliamentary Elections', Post-Soviet Geography and Economics, 40, 1, January 1999, pp. 1-26.
10. Vicki Hesli, William Reisinger & Arthur Miller, 'Political Party Development in Divided Societies: The Case of Ukraine', Electoral Studies, 17, 2, June 1998, pp. 235-256, at p. 237. See also Taras Kuzio, Ukraine: State and Nation Building (London, Routledge, 1998).
11. Vicki Hesli, William Reisinger & Arthur Miller, 'Political Party Development in Divided Societies: The Case of Ukraine', Electoral Studies, 17, 2, June 1998, pp. 235-256, at p. 237. See also Taras Kuzio, Ukraine: State and Nation Building (London, Routledge, 1998).
12. One disturbing finding was that, in 1995, less than half (48.3%) of Ukrainians identified primarily with the Ukrainian state. Other answers were region (14.6%), the whole of the USSR (20.5%) and the CIS (6.7%). See Democratic Initiatives, Ukrainian Society 1994-1995 (Kyiv, 1995).
13. 6 Regions are defined as follows: west includes the oblasti of L'viv, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Chernivtsi, Ternopil, Volyn, Rivne and Khmelnytsky; central is Kyiv City and oblast', Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Chernihiv and Poltava; east is Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Dniepropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia; south is Odesa, Mykolaiv and Kherson. I should note that my inclusion of certain oblasti in some regions may differ from the judgement of other analysts, but this is done as a reflection of the Eastern Eurobarometer surveys, which I use below, and I want the classifications to be consistent.
14. Jane Dawson, 'Ethnicity, Ideology and Geopolitics in Crimea', Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 30, 4, December 1997, pp. 427-444.
15. Seminal sources would include Charles Tilly (ed.), The Formation of National States in Western Europe (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1975), and Ernest Gellner, Nations and Nationalism (London, Basil Blackwell, 1983).
16. Seminal sources would include Charles Tilly (ed.), The Formation of National States in Western Europe (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1975), and Ernest Gellner, Nations and Nationalism (London, Basil Blackwell, 1983).
17. For studies of nationalisation of politics, see Robert Jackman, 'Political Parties, Voting, and National Integration: The Canadian Case', Comparative Politics, 4, 4, July 1972, pp. 511-536, and Sadafumi Kawato, 'Nationalization and Partisan Realignment in Congressional Elections', American Political Science Review, 81, 4, December 1987, pp. 1235-1250
18. For studies of nationalisation of politics, see Robert Jackman, 'Political Parties, Voting, and National Integration: The Canadian Case', Comparative Politics, 4, 4, July 1972, pp. 511-536, and Sadafumi Kawato, 'Nationalization and Partisan Realignment in Congressional Elections', American Political Science Review, 81, 4, December 1987, pp. 1235-1250
19. Robert Putnam, Making Democracy Work (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1993). Jackman, cited above, also found little nationalisation in the Canadian case.
20. For example, in a survey of 1201 Ukrainians conducted in December 1994, only 6.3% reported that they were satisfied with current conditions. An overwhelming majority, 66.3%, reported they were strongly dissatisfied. When asked whether Ukraine was a democracy, 55.9% said no, and only 17.8% said yes. See International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES), Ukrainian Mass Survey, December 1994 (Washington, IFES, 1995).
21. Unfortunately, as the Eastern Eurobarometers are conducted in numerous countries, there were no questions specific to regional issues in Ukraine.
22. See in particular Arel & Khmelko and Hesli et al. 14 Religion has been found by some (Hesli et al.) to be very important, even when region is controlled. Unfortunately, the Eastern Eurobarometers did not consistently ask about religious affiliation. Income and city residence were not included to mitigate problems of multi-collinearity with education. Nonetheless, there is still substantial correlation (p<0.01) among variables in this equation, especially for education, age, male and change in household finances. I have kept all in the equation, however, as each taps a different concept worth exploring.
23. It remains to be seen whether the August 1998 crisis in Russia, in addition to all the other problems there, will diminish the appeal of Russia to disaffected Ukrainians.
24. Hesli et al.
25. Barrington, and Paul Kubicek, 'Post-Soviet Ukraine: In Search of a Constituency for Reform', Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics, 13, 3, September 1997, pp. 103-126.
26. In 1990 elections were held for the then republic-level Supreme Soviet, whose members served until 1994. These elections witnessed a profound regional division in the country. Nonetheless, they were not entirely free as they operated under Soviet law. Therefore no analysis is made of them in this article.
27. In addition to previously cited works, see Taras Kuzio & Andrew Wilson, Ukraine: Perestroika to Independence (London, Macmillan, 1994); Dominique Arel & Andrew Wilson, 'The Ukrainian Parliamentary Elections', RFE/RL Research Report, 3, 26, 1994, pp. 6-17; David Marples, 'Ukraine after the Presidential Election', RFE/RL Research Report, 3, 3, 1994, pp. 7-10; Marko Bojcun, 'The Ukrainian Parliamentary Elections in March-April 1994', Europe-Asia Studies, 47, 2, February 1995, pp. 229-249; and Sarah Birch, 'Electoral Systems, Campaign Strategies, and Vote Choice in the Ukrainian Parliamentary and Presidential Elections of 1994', Political Studies, 46, 1, 1998, pp. 96-114.
28. In addition to previously cited works, see Taras Kuzio & Andrew Wilson, Ukraine: Perestroika to Independence (London, Macmillan, 1994); Dominique Arel & Andrew Wilson, 'The Ukrainian Parliamentary Elections', RFE/RL Research Report, 3, 26, 1994, pp. 6-17; David Marples, 'Ukraine after the Presidential Election', RFE/RL Research Report, 3, 3, 1994, pp. 7-10; Marko Bojcun, 'The Ukrainian Parliamentary Elections in March-April 1994', Europe-Asia Studies, 47, 2, February 1995, pp. 229-249; and Sarah Birch, 'Electoral Systems, Campaign Strategies, and Vote Choice in the Ukrainian Parliamentary and Presidential Elections of 1994', Political Studies, 46, 1, 1998, pp. 96-114.
29. In addition to previously cited works, see Taras Kuzio & Andrew Wilson, Ukraine: Perestroika to Independence (London, Macmillan, 1994); Dominique Arel & Andrew Wilson, 'The Ukrainian Parliamentary Elections', RFE/RL Research Report, 3, 26, 1994, pp. 6-17; David Marples, 'Ukraine after the Presidential Election', RFE/RL Research Report, 3, 3, 1994, pp. 7-10; Marko Bojcun, 'The Ukrainian Parliamentary Elections in March-April 1994', Europe-Asia Studies, 47, 2, February 1995, pp. 229-249; and Sarah Birch, 'Electoral Systems, Campaign Strategies, and Vote Choice in the Ukrainian Parliamentary and Presidential Elections of 1994', Political Studies, 46, 1, 1998, pp. 96-114.
30. In addition to previously cited works, see Taras Kuzio & Andrew Wilson, Ukraine: Perestroika to Independence (London, Macmillan, 1994); Dominique Arel & Andrew Wilson, 'The Ukrainian Parliamentary Elections', RFE/RL Research Report, 3, 26, 1994, pp. 6-17; David Marples, 'Ukraine after the Presidential Election', RFE/RL Research Report, 3, 3, 1994, pp. 7-10; Marko Bojcun, 'The Ukrainian Parliamentary Elections in March-April 1994', Europe-Asia Studies, 47, 2, February 1995, pp. 229-249; and Sarah Birch, 'Electoral Systems, Campaign Strategies, and Vote Choice in the Ukrainian Parliamentary and Presidential Elections of 1994', Political Studies, 46, 1, 1998, pp. 96-114.
31. In addition to previously cited works, see Taras Kuzio & Andrew Wilson, Ukraine: Perestroika to Independence (London, Macmillan, 1994); Dominique Arel & Andrew Wilson, 'The Ukrainian Parliamentary Elections', RFE/RL Research Report, 3, 26, 1994, pp. 6-17; David Marples, 'Ukraine after the Presidential Election', RFE/RL Research Report, 3, 3, 1994, pp. 7-10; Marko Bojcun, 'The Ukrainian Parliamentary Elections in March-April 1994', Europe-Asia Studies, 47, 2, February 1995, pp. 229-249; and Sarah Birch, 'Electoral Systems, Campaign Strategies, and Vote Choice in the Ukrainian Parliamentary and Presidential Elections of 1994', Political Studies, 46, 1, 1998, pp. 96-114.
32. For example, December 1993 surveys conducted by Democratic Initiative showed that over half the population had absolutely no trust in the President, the Verkhovna Rada, the Cabinet of Ministers or local councils (Ukraînsk'yi ohliadach, 1994, 2.
33. Bojcun, p. 233.
34. From Arel & Wilson.
35. Votes here are from March 1994, not subsequent run-offs, which were held in most constituencies. The left is defined as the Communist, Socialist and Agrarian Parties; national-democrats include Rukh, the Republican Party, the Democratic Party and the Christian Democratic Party; centrists include New Ukraine, the Inter-Regional Bloc for Reforms (IRBR) and the Liberal Party. The left bloc is made up of the same three parties, the national democratic bloc includes Rukh, Statehood and Reforms and the centrists bloc includes IRBR, Unity and Centre.
36. Paul Kubicek, Unbroken Ties: The State, Interest Associations, and Corporatism in Post-Soviet Ukraine (Ann Arbor, University of Michigan Press, 2000).
37. Hesli et al., however, argue that such a system would encourage extremist positions, whereas the 1994 system that encouraged independents forced candidates to position themselves with the 'median voter'.
38. Hesli et al.
39. In these elections I define the national-democrats as Rukh, Reforms and Order, the bloc Forward Ukraine! and the Christian-Democratic Party. The left includes the Communist Party, the Progressive Socialist Party and the Socialist-Agrarian bloc.
40. I refer to the Agrarian Party which allied itself with the Socialist Party in a single bloc, not the largely pro-presidential Agrarian Party, which should be classified as centrist.
41. See Craumer & Clem.
42. Arthur Miller, Thomas Klobucar, William Reisinger & Vicki Hesli, 'Social Identities in Russia, Ukraine, and Lithuania', Post-Soviet Affairs, 14, 3, July-September 1998, pp. 248-286.
43. These effects are absent in left votes because of the inclusion of the Socialist-Agrarians, who did well among rural, ethnic Ukrainian voters, particularly in the central regions.
44. Craumer & Clem find unemployment to be important, as it is positively associated with nationalist vote and negatively with leftist vote.
45. For more on this point, see Kubicek, 'What Happened to the Nationalists in Ukraine', Nationalism and Ethnic Politics, 5, 2, Summer 1999, pp. 29-45.
46. Unfortunately, no indices were compiled for votes after the fourth session, although the F-4 Centre continues its work of monitoring the Verkhovna Rada.
47. See Kubicek, Unbroken Ties.