Time-series evidence for balassa’s export-led growth hypothesis

Journal of International Trade and Economic Development

Volumn 9, Issue 3, 2000, Pages 355-365

  Hatemi J, Abdulnasser ^a   Irandoust, Manuchehr ^b  

^a LUND UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

^b ÖREBRO UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

Author keywords

Cointegration; Economic growth; Exports; Granger non causality

Indexed keywords

ECONOMIC GROWTH; EXPORT LED DEVELOPMENT; INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS;

EID: 0033875185     PISSN: 09638199     EISSN: 14699559     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/09638190050086195     Document Type: Article

References (46)

1. Ahmad, J. and Kwan, A.C. (1991) ‘Causality between exports and economic growth: empirical evidence from Africa’. Economics Letters 37, 243-248.
2. Akaike, H. (1969) ‘Fitting autoregressions for prediction’. Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 21, 243-247.
3. Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Alse, J. (1993) ‘Export growth and economic growth: an application of cointegration and error correction modelling’. Journal of Developing Areas 27(4), 535-542.
4. Balassa, B. (1978) ‘Exports and economic growth: further evidence’. Journal of Development Economics 5(2), 181-189.
5. Balassa, B. (1985) ‘Exports, policy choices, and economic growth in developing countries after the 1973 oil shock’. Journal of Development Economics 18, 23-35.
6. Bewley, R. and Yang, M. (1996) ‘On the size and power of system tests for cointegration’. In M. McAleer et al. (eds) Proceedings of Econometric Society of Australasian Meeting, 3, 1-20, Perth, Australia.
7. Chow, P.C.Y. (1987) ‘Causality between export growth and industrial performance: evidence from NICs’. Journal of Development Economics 26(1), 55-63.
8. Darrat, A.F. (1986) ‘Trade and development: the Asian experience’. Cato Journal 6, 695-699.
9. Dodaro, S. (1993) ‘Exports and growth: a reconsideration of causality,’ Journal of Developing Areas 27, 227-244.
10. Doyle, E. (1998) ‘Export-output causality: the Irish case 1953-93’. Atlantic Economic Journal 26(2), 147-161.
11. Feder, G. (1982) ‘On exports and economic growth’. Journal of Development Economics 12(1/2), 59-73.
12. Giles, J.A. and Mirza, S. (1998) ‘Some pretesting issues on testing for Granger noncausality’. Mimeo, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
13. Giles, D.E.A., Giles, J.A. and McCann, E. (1992) ‘Causality, unit roots, and export-led growth: the New Zealand experience’. Journal of International Trade and Economic Development 1, 195-218.
14. Giles, J.A. and Williams, C.L. (1999) ‘Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some noncausality results’. Econometric Working Paper EWP9901, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
15. Granger, C. (1969) ‘Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross spectral methods’. Econometrica 37, 424-438.
16. Greenaway, D. and Sapsford, D. (1994) ‘Export, growth, and liberalisation: an evaluation’. Journal of Policy Modeling 16(2), 165-186.
17. Grossman, G.M. and Helpman, E. (1991) Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
18. Helpman, E. and Krugman, P. (1985) Market Structure and Foreign Trade. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
19. Ho, M.S. and Sorensen, B.E. (1996) ‘Finding cointegration rank in high dimensional systems using the Johansen test: an illustration using data based on Monte Carlo simulations,’ Review of Economics and Statistics 78(4), 726-732.
20. Hsiao, M.C.W. (1987) ‘Tests of causality and exogenity between exports and economic growth: the case of the Asian NIC’s’. Journal of Economic Development 12(2), 143-159.
21. Johansen, S. (1988) ‘Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors’. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 12, 231-254.
22. Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1990) ‘Maximum likelihood estimation and inferences on cointegration with application to the demand for money’. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 52, 169-210.
23. Jung, W.S. and Marshall, PJ. (1985) ‘Exports, growth and causality in developing countries’. Journal of Development Economics 18(1), 1-12.
24. Kaldor, N. (1967) Strategic Factors in Economic Development. New York State School of Industrial and Labour Relations, Ithaca, NY: Cornell University.
25. Krueger, A.O. (1978) Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Liberalisation Attempts and Consequences. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger.
26. Krugman, P.R. (1984) ‘Import protection as export promotion’. In H. Kierzkowski (ed.) Monopolistic Competition in International Trade. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
27. Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P.C.B., Schmidt, P. and Shin, Y. (1992) ‘Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: how sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?’. Journal of Econometrics 54, 159-178.
28. Lancaster, K. (1980) ‘Intra-industry trade under perfect monopolistic competition’. Journal of International Economics 10, 151-175.
29. Little, I., Scitovsky, T. and Scott, M. (1970) Industry and Trade in Some Developing Countries. London: Oxford University Press.
30. McKinnon, R. (1964) ‘Foreign exchange constraint in economic development and efficient aid allocation’. Economic Journal 74, 388-409.
31. Michaely, M. (1977) ‘Exports and growth: an empirical investigation’. Journal of Development Economics 4(1), 149-153.
32. Newey, W. and West, K. ‘A simple positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix’. Econometrica 55, 703-708.
33. Oxley, L. (1993) ‘Cointegration, causality and export-led growth in Portugal, 1865-1985’. Economics Letters 43, 163-166.
34. Perron, P. (1989) ‘The great crash, the oil price shock and the unit root hypothesis’. Econometrica 57, 1361-1401.
35. Ram, R. ‘Exports and economic growth in developing countries: evidence from time series and cross-section data’. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 36, 51-72.
36. Rambaldi, A.N. and Doran, H.E. (1996) ‘Testing for Granger non-causality in cointegrated systems made easy’. Working Papers in Econometrics and Applied Statistics, Department of Econometrics, University of New England, 88, pp. 1-22.
37. Schwarz, G. (1978) ‘Estimating the dimension of a model’. Annals of Statistics 6, 461-464.
38. Shan, J. and Sun, F. (1998) ‘On the export-led growth hypothesis for the little dragons: an empirical reinvestigation’. Atlantic Economic Journal 26, 353-371.
39. Sims, C.A. (1972) ‘Money, income, and causality’. The American Economic Review 62, 540-552.
40. Singer, H.W. and Gray, P. (1988) ‘Trade policy and growth of developing countries: some new data’. World Development 16, 395-403.
41. Thornton, J. (1996) ‘Cointegration, causality and export-led growth in Mexico, 18951992’. Economics Letters 50, 413-416.
42. Toda, H.Y. (1994) ‘Finite sample properties of likelihood ratio tests for cointegration ranks when linear trends are present’. Review of Economics and Statistics 76, 66-79.
43. Toda, H.Y. and Yamamoto, T. (1995) ‘Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes’. Journal of Econometrics 66, 225-250.
44. Tyler, W.G. (1981) ‘Growth and export expansion in developing countries: some empirical evidence’. Journal of Development Economics 9, 121-130.
45. Xu, Z. (1996) ‘On the causality between export growth and GDP growth: an empirical evidence’. Review of International Economics 4(6), 172-184.
46. Zapata, H.O. and Rambaldi, A.N. ‘Monte Carlo evidence on cointegration and causation’. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 59, 285-298.