Export-led growth: A survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. part 2

Journal of International Trade and Economic Development

Volumn 9, Issue 4, 2000, Pages 445-470

  Giles, Judith A ^a   Williams, Cara L ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF VICTORIA   (Canada)

Author keywords

Causality; Economic growth; Misspecification; Model; Robustness; Time series models

Indexed keywords

EID: 0038743840     PISSN: 09638199     EISSN: 14699559     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/096381900750056867     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. Afxentiou, P.C. and Serletis, A. (1991) ‘Exports and GNP causality in the industrial countries: 1950-1985’. Kyklos 44, 167-79.
2. Ahn, S.K. and Reinsel, G.C. (1990) ‘Estimation of partially non-stationary multivariate autoregressive models’. Journal of the American Statistical Association 85, 813-23.
3. Akaike, H. (1969) ‘Fitting autoregressive models for prediction’. Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 21, 243-47.
4. Akaike, H. (1973) ‘Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principle’. In B.N. Petrov and F. Csaki (eds) 2nd International Symposium on Information Theory. Budapest: Academiai Kiado.
5. Arnade, C. and Vasavada, U. (1995) ‘Causality between productivity and exports in agriculture: evidence from Asia and Latin America’. Journal of Agricultural Economics 46, 174-86.
6. Bodman, P.M. (1996) ‘On export-led growth in Australia and Canada: cointegration, causality and structural stability’. Australian Economic Papers 35, 282-99.
7. Dodaro, S. (1993) ‘Exports and growth: a reconsideration of causality’. Journal of Developing Areas 27, 227-44.
8. Dolado, J.J. and Lutkepohl, H. (1996) ‘Making Wald tests work for cointegrated VAR systems’. Econometric Reviews 15, 369-86.
9. Engle, R.F. and Granger, C.W.J. (1987) ‘Cointegration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing’. Econometrica 55, 251-76.
10. Feige, E.L. and Pearce, D.K. (1979) ‘The causal relationship between money and income: some caveats for time series analysis’. Review of Economics and Statistics 61, 521-33.
11. Franses, P.H. (1999) ‘How to deal with intercept and trend in practical cointegration analysis’. Econometric Institute Research Report 9904/A, Econometric Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam.
12. Geweke, J.R. (1984) ‘Measures of conditional linear dependence and feedback between time series’. Journal of the American Statistical Association 79, 907-15.
13. Giles, J.A. and Mirza, S. (1999) ‘Some pretesting issues on testing for Granger noncausality’. Econometrics Working Paper EWP9914, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
14. Giles, J.A. and Williams, C.L. (2000) ‘Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 1’. Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 9, 265-341.
15. Granger, C.W.J. (1963) ‘Economic processes involving feedback’. Information and Control 6, 28-48.
16. Granger, C.W.J. (1969) ‘Investigating causal relations by econometric models: cross spectral methods’. Econometrica 37, 424-38.
17. Gupta, S. (1985) ‘Export growth and economic growth revisited’. Indian Economic Journal 32, 52-9.
18. Hall, A. (1994) ‘Testing for a unit root in time series with pretest data-based model selection’. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 12, 461-70.
19. Hannan, E.J. and Quinn, B.G. (1979) ‘The determination of the order of an autoregression’. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B41, 190-95.
20. Henriques, I. and Sadorsky, P. (1996) ‘Export-led growth or growth-driven exports? The Canadian case’. Canadian Journal of Economics 96, 540-55.
21. Hutchinson, M. and Singh, N. (1992) ‘Exports, non-exports and externalities: a Granger causality approach’. International Economic Journal 6, 79-94.
22. Jacob, R.L., Leamer, E.E. and Ward, M.P. (1979) ‘Difficulties with testing for causation’. Economic Inquiry 42, 401-13.
23. Jin, J.C. and Yu, E.S.H. (1995) ‘The causal relationship between exports and income’. Journal of Economic Development 20, 131-40.
24. Johansen, S. (1988) ‘Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors’. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 12, 231-54.
25. Johansen, S. (1995) Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models. New York: Oxford University Press.
26. Jung, S.W. and Marshall, P.J. (1985) ‘Exports, growth and causality in developing countries’. Journal of Development Economics 18, 1-12.
27. Leybourne, S.J. and McCabe, B.P.M. (1999) ‘Modified stationarity tests with data dependent model selection rules’. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 17, 264-70.
28. Lutkepohl, H. (1993) Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis, 2nd edn. Berlin: Springer Verlag.
29. MacKinnon, J.G. (1994) ‘Numerical distribution functions for unit root and cointegration tests’. Journal of Applied Econometrics 11, 601-18.
30. MacKinnon, J.G., Haug, A.A. and Michelis, L. (1999) ‘Numerical distribution functions of likelihood ratio tests for cointegration’. Journal of Applied Econometrics 14, 563-77.
31. Marin, D. (1992) ‘Is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for industrialized countries’. Review of Economics and Statistics 74, 678-88.
32. McCabe, B.P.M., Leybourne, S.J. and Shin, Y. (1997) ‘A parametric approach to testing the null of cointegration’. Journal of Time Series Analysis 18, 395-413.
33. Ng, S. and Perron, P. (1995) ‘Unit root tests in ARMA models with data dependent methods for the selection of the truncation lag’. Journal of the American Statistical Association 90, 268-81.
34. Osterwald-Lenum, M. (1992) ‘A note with quantiles of the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood cointegration rank test statistics’. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 54, 461-71.
35. Oxley, L. (1993) ‘Cointegration, causality and export-led growth in Portugal, 1865-1985’. Economics Letters 43, 163-66.
36. Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R.J. (2000). ‘Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables’. Journal of Econometrics, 97, 293-343.
37. Phillips, P.C.B. (1995) ‘Fully modified least squares and vector autoregression’. Econometrica 63, 1023-78.
38. Phillips, P.C.B. (1996) ‘Econometric model determination’. Econometrica 64, 763-812.
39. Phillips, P.C.B. and Ouliaris, S. (1990) ‘Asymptotic properties of residual based tests for cointegration’. Econometrica 58, 165-93.
40. Phillips, P.C.B. and Perron, P. (1988) ‘Testing for a unit root in time series regression’. Biometrika 75, 335-46.
41. Pomponio, X.Z. (1996) ‘A causality analysis of growth and export performance’. Atlantic Economic Journal 24, 168-76.
42. Quintos, C.E. (1998) ‘Fully modified VAR inference in partially non-stationary models’. Journal of the American Statistical Association 93, 783-95.
43. Riezman, R.G., Summers, P.M. and Whiteman, C.H. (1996) ‘The engine of growth or its handmaiden? A time series assessment of export-led growth’. Empirical Economics 21, 77-113.
44. Roberts, D.L. and Nord, S. (1985) ‘Causality tests and functional form sensitivity’. Applied Economics 17, 135-41.
45. Schwarz, A. (1978) ‘Estimating the dimension of a model’. Annals of Statistics 6, 461-64.
46. Sephton, P. (1989) ‘Export, growth and industrial development’. Journal of Development Economics 31, 413-15.
47. Serletis, A. (1992) ‘Export growth and Canadian economic development’. Journal of Development Economics 38, 133-45.
48. Sharma, S.C. and Dhakal, D. (1994) ‘Causal analysis between exports and economic growth in developing countries’. Applied Economics 26, 1145-57.
49. Sims, C.A. (1972) ‘Money, income and causality’. American Economic Review 62, 540-52.
50. Sims, C.A. (1980) ‘Macroeconomics and reality’. Econometrica 48, 1-48.
51. Sims, C.A., Stock, J.H. and Watson, M.J. (1990) ‘Inference in linear time series models with some unit roots’. Econometrica 58, 113-44.
52. Toda, H.Y. and Phillips, P.C.B. (1993) ‘Vector autoregressions and causality’. Econometrica 61, 1367-93.
53. Toda, H.Y. and Phillips, P.C.B. (1994) ‘Vector autoregressions and causality: a theoretical overview and simulation study’. Econometric Reviews 13, 259-85.
54. Toda, H.Y. and Yamamoto, T. (1995) ‘Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes’. Journal of Econometrics 66, 225-50.
55. Weiner, N. (1956) ‘The theory of prediction’. In E.F. Beckenback (ed.) Modern Mathematics for Engineers (Series I). New York: McGraw-Hill.
56. Yamada, H. (1998) ‘A note on the causality between exports and productivity: an empirical re-examination’. Economics Letters 61, 111-14.
57. Zapata, H.O. and Rambaldi, A.N. (1997) ‘Monte Carlo evidence on cointegration and causation’. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 59, 285-98.