Quantifying persistence in ENSO

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Volumn 56, Issue 16, 1999, Pages 2737-2760

  Weiss, John P ^a   Weiss, Jeffrey B ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CORRELATION METHODS; HARMONIC ANALYSIS; LEAST SQUARES APPROXIMATIONS; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; NATURAL FREQUENCIES; NONLINEAR EQUATIONS; OSCILLATIONS; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS;

BIENNIAL CYCLE; EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; NONLINEAR LEAST SQUARES FIT; PERSISTENCE; RED NOISE PROCESS; SPRING BARRIER;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; PERSISTENCE; PREDICTION; TEMPORAL VARIATION;

EID: 0033566497     PISSN: 00224928     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(1999)056<2737:QPIE>2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (28)

1. Balmascda, M. A., M. K. Davey, and D. L. T. Andersen, 1995: Decadal and seasonal dependence of ENSO prediction skill. J. Climate, 8, 2705-2715.
2. Battisti, D. S., and A. C. Hirst, 1989: Interannual variability in a tropical atmosphere-ocean model: Influence of the basic state, ocean geometry and nonlinearity. J. Atmos. Sci., 46,1687-1712.
3. Bjerknes, J., 1966: A possible response of .the atmospheric Hadley circulation to equatorial anomalies of ocean temperature. Tellus, 18, 820-829.
4. 1969: Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 97, 163-172.
5. Cane, M., and S. E. Zebiak, 1985: A theory for El Nifio and the Southern Oscillation. Science, 228, 1085-1086.
6. Chen, D., S. E. Zebiak, A. J. Busalacchi, and M. A. Cane, 1995: An improved procedure for El Nino forecasting: Implications for predictability. Science, 269, 1699-1702.
7. Gardiner, C. W., 1990: Handbook of Stochastic Methods for Physics, Chemistry and the Natural Sciences. 2d ed. Springer-Verlag, 442 pp.
8. Goldberg, D. E., 1989: Genetic Algorithms in Search. Optimization, and Machine Learning. Addison-Wesley, 412 pp.
9. Haupt, R. L., and S. E. Haupt, 1998: Practical Genetic Algorithms. John Wiley and Sons, 192 pp.
10. Huang, J.-P., and G. R. North, 1996: Cyclic spectral analysis of fluctuations in a GCM simulation. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 370-379.
11. 2. Amer. Stai., 39, 279-285.
12. More, J. J., B. S. Garbow, and K. E. Hillstrom, 1980: User guide for MINPACK-1. Rep. ANL-80-74, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, 261 pp. [Available from Argonne National Library, 9700 S. Cass Avenue, Argonne, IL 60439.]
13. Oort, A. H., Y. H. Pan, R. W. Reynolds, and C. F. Ropelewski, 1987: Historical trend in the surface temperature over the oceans based on the COADS. Climate Dyn., 2, 29-38.
14. Philander, S. G., 1990: El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation. Academic Press, 293 pp.
15. Press, W. H., S. A. Teukolsky, W. T. Vetterling, and B. P. Flannery, 1992: Numerical Recipes in C: The Art of Scientific Computing. 2d ed. Cambridge University Press, 994 pp.
16. Rasmusson, E. M., and T. H. Carpenter, 1982: Variations in tropical sea surface temperature and surface wind fields associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Nino. A/on. Wea. Rev., 110, 354-384.
17. Ryan, T. P., 1997: Modern Regression Methods. John Wiley and Sons, 515 pp.
18. Torrence, C., and P. Webster, 1998: The annual cycle of persistence in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 124, 1985-2004.
19. Troup, A. J., 1965: The southern oscillation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 91, 490-506.
20. Vallis, G. K., 1988: Conceptual models of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation.J. Geophys. Res., 93 (C), 13979-13991.
21. Wang, B., 1995: Interdecadal changes in El Niño onset in the last four decades. J. Climate, 8, 267-285.
22. and Y. Wang, 1996: Temporal structure of the Southern Oscillation as revealed by waveform and wavelet analysis. J. Climate, 9, 1586-1598.
23. Webster, P. J., 1995: The annual cycle and the predictability of the tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 56, 33-55.
24. and S. Yang, 1992: Monsoon and ENSO: Selectively interactive systems. Quart. J. Roy. Meter. Soc., 118, 877-926.
25. Wright, P. B., 1979: Persistence of rainfall anomalies in the central Pacific. Nature, 277, 371-374.
26. 1985: The Southern Oscillation: An ocean-atmosphere feedback system? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 66, 398-412.
27. Xue, Y, M. A. Cane, S. E. Zebiak, and M. B. Blumenthal, 1994: On the prediction of ENSO: A study with a low-order Markov model. Tellus, 46A, 512-528.
28. Zebiak, S., and M. Cane, 1987: A model El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 2262-2278.