Satellite evidence for an Arctic sea ice cover in transformation

Science

Volumn 286, Issue 5446, 1999, Pages 1937-1939

  Johannessen, Ola M ^a,b   Shalina, Elena V ^c   Miles, Martin W ^a,b  

^a NANSEN ENVIRONMENTAL AND REMOTE SENSING CENTER   (Norway)

^b UNIVERSITY OF BERGEN   (Norway)

^c Nansen Intl Environ Remote S   (Russian Federation)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ICE; SEA WATER;

GLOBAL WARMING; ICE COVER; SEA ICE;

ARCTIC; ARTICLE; ATMOSPHERE; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; OCEANIC REGIONS; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SEASONAL VARIATION; SENSOR;

ARCTIC OCEAN;

EID: 0033521049     PISSN: 00368075     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1126/science.286.5446.1937     Document Type: Article

References (27)

1. S. Manabe, M. J. Spelman, R. J. Stouffer, J. Clim. 5, 105 (1992).
2. J. F. B. Mitchell, T. C. Johns, J. M. Gregory, S. F. B. Tett, Nature 376, 501 (1995).
3. O. M. Johannessen, M. W. Miles, E. Bjørgo, Nature 376, 126 (1995).
4. E. Bjørgo, O. M. Johannessen, M. W. Miles, Geophys. Res. Lett. 24, 413 (1997).
5. D. J. Cavalieri, P. Gloersen, C. L. Parkinson, H. J. Zwally, J. C. Comiso, Science 278, 1104 (1997).
6. J. Maslanik, M. C. Serreze, R. G. Barry, Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 1677 (1996). A comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of satellite data from 1978 to 1996 revealed some of the greatest decreases (>20%) to be in the summer ice cover over large parts of the East Siberian and Kara seas [C. L. Parkinson, D. J. Cavalieri, P. Gloersen, H. J. Zwally, J. C. Comiso, J. Geophys. Res. 104, 20,837 (1999)].
7. J. Maslanik, M. C. Serreze, R. G. Barry, Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 1677 (1996). A comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of satellite data from 1978 to 1996 revealed some of the greatest decreases (>20%) to be in the summer ice cover over large parts of the East Siberian and Kara seas [C. L. Parkinson, D. J. Cavalieri, P. Gloersen, H. J. Zwally, J. C. Comiso, J. Geophys. Res. 104, 20,837 (1999)].
8. P. Wadhams, Nature 345, 795 (1990). Analysis of data on sea ice thickness from the Greenland Sea and Eurasian Basin acquired from British submarine cruises in 1976 and 1987 showed a 15% decrease. However, the requisite data sets from submarine transects needed to reliably test for changes in overall arctic ice thickness have remained unavailable [P. Wadhams, J. Geophys. Res. 102, 27951 (1997)], although progress is being made; see (19). Additionally, methods of estimating spatially integrated sea ice thickness using spaceborne altimetry appear promising [N. R. Peacock et al., in Proceedings of the International Geosciences and Remote Sensing Symposium, Seattle, WA, 6 to 10 July 1998, T. I. Stein, Ed. (IEEE, Piscataway, NJ, 1998), pp. 1964-1966] and may be applied to continuous satellite altimeter data sets made since 1991.
9. P. Wadhams, Nature 345, 795 (1990). Analysis of data on sea ice thickness from the Greenland Sea and Eurasian Basin acquired from British submarine cruises in 1976 and 1987 showed a 15% decrease. However, the requisite data sets from submarine transects needed to reliably test for changes in overall arctic ice thickness have remained unavailable [P. Wadhams, J. Geophys. Res. 102, 27951 (1997)], although progress is being made; see (19). Additionally, methods of estimating spatially integrated sea ice thickness using spaceborne altimetry appear promising [N. R. Peacock et al., in Proceedings of the International Geosciences and Remote Sensing Symposium, Seattle, WA, 6 to 10 July 1998, T. I. Stein, Ed. (IEEE, Piscataway, NJ, 1998), pp. 1964-1966] and may be applied to continuous satellite altimeter data sets made since 1991.
10. P. Wadhams, Nature 345, 795 (1990). Analysis of data on sea ice thickness from the Greenland Sea and Eurasian Basin acquired from British submarine cruises in 1976 and 1987 showed a 15% decrease. However, the requisite data sets from submarine transects needed to reliably test for changes in overall arctic ice thickness have remained unavailable [P. Wadhams, J. Geophys. Res. 102, 27951 (1997)], although progress is being made; see (19). Additionally, methods of estimating spatially integrated sea ice thickness using spaceborne altimetry appear promising [N. R. Peacock et al., in Proceedings of the International Geosciences and Remote Sensing Symposium, Seattle, WA, 6 to 10 July 1998, T. I. Stein, Ed. (IEEE, Piscataway, NJ, 1998), pp. 1964-1966] and may be applied to continuous satellite altimeter data sets made since 1991.
11. J. C. Comiso, J. Geophys. Res. 95, 13,411 (1990).
12. P. Gloersen et al., Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice: 1978-1987. Satellite Passive Microwave Observations and Analysis (NASA, Washington, DC, 1992).
13. T. Grenfell, J. Geophys. Res. 97, 3485 (1992).
14. NORSEX Group, Science 220, 781 (1983).
15. E. Svendsen et al., J. Geophys. Res. 88, 2781 (1983).
16. D. J. Cavalieri, C. L. Parkinson, P. Gloersen, J. C. Comiso, H. J. Zwally, J. Geophys. Res. 104, 15,803 (1999).
17. J. Stroeve, X. Li, J. Maslanik, Remote Sens. Environ. 64, 132 (1998).
18. P. Gloersen and D. J. Cavalieri, J. Geophys. Res. 91, 3913 (1986).
19. R. Kwok and D. A. Rothrock, J. Geophys. Res. 104, 5177 (1999).
20. D. M. Smith, Geophys. Res. Lett. 25, 655 (1998).
21. M. G. McPhee, T. P. Stanton, J. H. Morison, D. G. Martinson, Geophys. Res. Lett. 25, 1729 (1998).
22. D. A. Rothrock, Y. Yu, and G. A. Maykut (Geophys. Res. Lett., in press) compared sea ice draft data acquired by the Scientific Ice Expeditions (SCICEX) program in the mid-1990s with data from 1958 and 1976, finding a mean decrease of 1.3 m (around 40%) in ice thickness over the deep Arctic Ocean, with greater decreases in the eastern and central Arctic than in the western Arctic. These trends are much greater than the ∼0.1 m reported in (21) and shown in our Fig. 2, although the data sets are not directly comparable. First, the effective ice thickness estimates in Fig. 2 are from 1978-91, so that there is no overlap. Second, the data are from different seasons, and summer and winter trends are not expected a priori to be similar. Third, the 1990s data analyzed by Rothrock et al. are from 1993-97, which happens to be a period of unusually large reductions in the summer ice cover, especially in the eastern Arctic, with record low ice minima in 1993 and 1995 (6).
23. A. P. Nagumyi, V. G. Korostelev, P. A. Abaza, Bull. Russian Acad. Sci. Phys. Suppl. Phys. Vib. 58, 168 (1994).
24. A. P. Nagurnyi, V. G. Korostelev, V. V. Ivanov, Meteorol. Hydrol. 3, 72, (1999) (Russian; English translation available from the Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center).
25. J. W. Hurrell, Science 269, 676 (1995).
26. L. A. Mysak and S. A. Venegas, Geophys. Res. Lett. 25, 3607 (1998).
27. Supported by grants from the European Union's program International Association for the Promotion of Co-operation with Scientists from the Independent States of the Former Soviet Union (INTAS), the Norwegian Research Council's programs International Co-operation: Central and Eastern Europe and Arctic Radiation and Heat, and the Norwegian Space Centre. The satellite data were provided by the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, CO. We thank A. P. Nagurnyi and H. Sagen for useful discussions on ice thickness retrieval and the two anonymous reviewers for useful comments on the manuscript.