Is the Middle East democratizing?

British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies

Volumn 26, Issue 2, 1999, Pages 199-217

  Ehteshami, Anoushiravan ^a  

^a DURHAM UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DEMOCRATIZATION; ELECTION; POLITICAL CHANGE;

MIDDLE EAST;

EID: 0033451487     PISSN: 13530194     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/13530199908705683     Document Type: Article

References (51)

1. Igor Belikov, 'Soviet scholars' debate on socialist orientation in the Third World', Millennium: Journal of International Studies, 20(1) (1991), pp. 23-39.
2. Note in this regard the Syrian-Iranian alliance. See Anoushiravan Ehteshami and Raymond A. Hinnebusch, Syria and Iran: Middle Powers in a Penetrated Regional System (London: Routledge, 1997).
3. Gudrun Krämer, 'The integration of the integrists: a comparative study of Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia', in Ghassan Salamé (ed) Democracy Without Democrats? The Renewal of Politics in the Muslim World (London: I.B. Tauris, 1994), pp. 200-226.
4. Daniel Brumberg, 'Authoritarian legacies and reform strategies in the Arab world', in Rex Brynen, Bahgat Korany and Paul Noble (eds) Political Liberalization and Democratization in the Arab World: Volume 1, Theoretical Perspectives (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1995), pp. 229-259.
5. See Gabriel Ben-Dor, 'Prospects of democratization in the Arab world: global diffusion, regional demonstration, and domestic imperatives', in Brynen et al. Political Liberalization ..., pp. 307-329.
6. 'Introduction', in Augustus Richard Norton (ed.) Civil Society in the Middle East - Volume I (Leiden: E.J. Brill, 1995), p. 5.
7. See Civil Society, VI(69) (1997), p. 5.
8. Salamé summarizes the prevailing view well: 'if democratization was feasible in Eastern Europe it might also take root in other regions'. See his 'Introduction: where are the democrats?', in Salamé Democracy Without Democrats ..., p. 1.
9. Glenn E. Robinson, for instance, has categorized Jordan's political opening as 'pre-emptive' democratization. See 'Can the Islamists be democrats? The case of Jordan', Middle East Journal, 51(3) (1997), p. 374.
10. For a detailed discussion of some of these issues see John Waterbury, 'Democracy without democrats? The potential for political liberalization in the Middle East', in Salamé, Democracy Without Democrats ... pp. 23-47.
11. See also Arab Studies Quarterly, VI(I) (Spring 1998),
12. and Tim Niblock, 'Democratization: a theoretical and practical debate', British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, 25(2) (1998), pp. 221-233.
13. Murphy's observations about Tunisia in this regard also apply to several other Middle Eastern countries. She notes that President Ben Ali's 'reforms were not democratic - they were imposed from above albeit in sympathy with demands from below. The state, and more specifically the president, determined the pace, scope, and spheres of reform'. See Emma C. Murphy, Economic and Political Change in Tunisia: From Bourguiba to Ben Ali (London: Macmillan Press, 1999), p. 223.
14. Data compiled from national sources; the chronology section of various issues of the Middle East Journal and Civil Society.
15. This information has been compiled from national sources and news agencies. The 60.25% turnout in Algeria's presidential poll in April 1999 is also informative, as clearly voter interest and participation did drop with the news that effectively only one candidate's name was to remain on the ballot paper. The opposition maintains that turnout was much lower than is being claimed by the government. In Syria, according to government sources, the February's referendum on extending President Asad's 7-year presidency term for the fifth time brought 8,961,147 out of the country's total electorate of 9,101,155 out to vote. What was perhaps less surprising was the result: 99.98% of the voters supported the People's Assembly's candidate, President Asad - the only candidate. APS Diplomat, 50(8) (22 February-1 March 1999).
16. For simplicity's sake, I am regarding Tunisia's two elections as a single event even though technically the electoral process involved two ballots on this occasion.
17. Twelve of Tehran's 15 council seats were won by President Khatami's allies.
18. With these elections, the responsibility for appointment of city mayors and local officials also passed from central government to local officers.
19. '"Democracy" in Doha', Gulf States Newsletter, 24(607) (22 March 1999), p. 3.
20. ArabicNews.com (17 April 1999). Four major political parties backed Bouteflika's candidacy: the ruling National Democratic Rally, the National Liberation Front, the Movement for Peaceful Society, and the Al-Nahda Movement. The latter two are known for their pro-Islamist leanings.
21. The Islamist party's share of the vote dropped from 21.4% in 1995 to 15.4% in 1999, while the nationalist party transformed its position by taking 18% of the vote in 1999 (from just 8% in 1995). In terms of actual seats in the parliament, the nationalist NMP received 129 seats (from none in 1995) and the Islamist FP was reduced from being the largest party (with 158 seats in 1995) to the third largest in 1999 with a total of 111 seats. See Hurriyet (25 April 1999);
22. Alan Makovsky, 'Turkey's Nationalist Movement', Policywatch, 384 (20 April 1999).
23. It is fascinating that nationalist resurgence in modern Turkey is taking shape at the expense of the oldest (and the founding nationalist) party in the country, that of Ataturk's Republican Peoples' Party (CHP). This parliament will be the first one in Turkey's history that CHP will not be represented in. Milliyet (20 April 1999).
24. From the Kurdish and Cyprus questions, to European Union membership, to relations with Central Asia and the Arab world, Ankara will be forced to adjust its policies in response to the new government's priorities.
25. For the record, several European Union countries, including France and Britain, have expressed their dissatisfaction with the conduct of the presidential poll.
26. The Emir's decree means that women will be able to run for office, vote and be elected as of the parliamentary and municipal elections scheduled for 2003. The decree has had a very mixed reception amongst the Islamist groups in Kuwait, several of whom oppose the measure. The Economist (22-28 May 1999).
27. Civil Society, VI(66) (1997).
28. This most useful definition is provided by Don Peretz and Gideon Doron, 'Israel's 1996 elections: a second political earthquake?', Middle East Journal, 50(4) (1996), p. 529.
29. Since the 1996 elections the electorate has been registering two votes: one for the (direct) election of the prime minister and another for the election of members of the Knesset. In May 1999, Ehud Barak became Israel's new prime minister by winning 56.08% of the votes cast, against Netanyahu's 43.92%. In the race for Knesset's 120 seats, Barak's One Israel coalition acquired just over 20% of the vote (which gave it 26 seats in the 15th Knesset, eight seats fewer than Labour had in 1996). With 19 seats (and 14% of the vote) the Likud Party became the second largest party in the Knesset, having seen its number of seats drop from 32 in 1996. See Jerusalem Post (20 May 1999).
30. Eberhard Kienle identifies the problems in the case of Egypt in his insightful essay, 'More than a response to Islamism: the political deliberalization of Egypt in the 1990s', Middle East Journal, 52(2) (1998), pp. 219-235.
31. Marsha Pripstein Posusney, 'Behind the ballot box: electoral engineering in the Arab world', Middle East Report, 209 (1998), pp. 12-16, 42-43.
32. Saad Eddin Ibrahim, 'Liberalization and democratization in the Arab world: an overview', in Brynen et al. Political Liberalization ... pp. 29-57.
33. Barbara Smith, 'Egypt: new and old', The Economist Survey (20 March 1999), pp. 16-17.
34. In Yemen, for instance, the president ratified a new law in April 1999 to facilitate direct election of the president in a multi-candidate contest. But only those candidates that could secure at least a 10% support base from the parliament would be allowed to stand. ArabicNew.com (20 April 1999).
35. See Gerd Nonneman (ed.) Political and Economic Liberalization: Dynamics and Linkages in Comparative Perspective (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1996).
36. Hilal Khashan, 'The New World Order and the tempo of militant Islam', British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, 24(1) (1997), pp. 5-24.
37. Gudrun Krämer, 'The Integration of the Integrists ...', p. 202.
38. See, for example, Ahmad S. Moussalli (ed.) Islamic Fundamentalism: Myths and Realities (Reading: Ithaca Press, 1998);
39. Mark Huband, Warriors of the Prophet: The Struggle for Islam (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1998);
40. Bassam Tibi, The Challenge of Fundamentalism: Political Islam and the New World Order (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1998);
41. Bruce Maddy-Weitzman and Efraim Inbar (eds) Religious Radicalism in the Greater Middle East (London: Frank Cass, 1997);
42. Dale F. Eickelman and James Piscatori, Muslim Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996);
43. Abdel Salam Sidahmed and Anoushiravan Ehteshami (eds) Islamic Fundamentalism (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1996).
44. Ibrahim A. Karawan, "The Islamist impasse*, Adelphi Paper 314 (London: Oxford University Press for IISS, 1997).
45. Laura Guazzone, 'Islamism and Islamists in the contemporary Arab world', in Laura Guazzone (ed.) The Islamist Dilemma: The Political Role of Islamist Movements in the Contemporary Arab World (Reading, Ithaca Press, 1995), pp. 3-38.
46. Jamil E. Jreisat, Politics Without Process: Administering Development in the Arab World (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1997), p. 166.
47. Even in Turkey, where their star was seen to be on the rise, they fell into third place in the country's parliamentary elections in 1999. Their share of the vote in 1999 was 15.4%, compared with 21.4% in 1995. Milliyet (20 April 1999). Turkey's Islamist party, Refah, was banned in 1998. Its successor, the Fazilet party, fielded 17 female candidates in the elections.
48. See Stephen C. Fairbanks, 'Theocracy versus democracy: Iran considers political parties', Middle East Journal, 52(1) (1998), pp. 17-31.
49. Since the local elections, the president has been suggesting that more power should be transferred to the 'public', which he argues should become the main arbiter's of political disputes in the country, and by extension the protectors of the constitution. At the inaugural meeting of the new Teheran city councils in late April President Khatami reiterated his view that 'the councils should play a leading role in establishing a civil society and allow the population to play a role in decisions affecting their destiny'. See Iran Daily (20 April 1999);
50. BBC News (on line) (29 April 1999).
51. President Khatami's August 1997 inaugural speech (reproduced in Civil Society, VI(69) (1997), pp. 7-9, in which he spoke of the need for a dialogue between civilizations, of popular legitimacy stemming from the 'vote of the people', of the true Islamic government being 'broad based', raised serious challenges for many Islamist activists and organizations in the Arab world.