How generalizable are coronary risk prediction models? Comparison of Framingham and two national cohorts

American Heart Journal

Volumn 137, Issue 5, 1999, Pages 837-845

  Liao, Youlian ^a   McGee, Daniel L ^b   Cooper, Richard S ^b   Sutkowski, Mary Beth E ^b  

^a LOYOLA UNIVERSITY CHICAGO   (United States)

^b NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CARDIAC AGENT;

ACCURACY; ADOLESCENT; ADULT; AGED; ARTICLE; CHILD; CLINICAL TRIAL; CONTROLLED CLINICAL TRIAL; CONTROLLED STUDY; CORONARY RISK; EXPERIMENTAL MODEL; FEMALE; FOLLOW UP; HUMAN; ISCHEMIC HEART DISEASE; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALE; META ANALYSIS; MORTALITY; PREDICTION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; RISK ASSESSMENT; SEX DIFFERENCE; SURVIVAL RATE; UNITED STATES;

EID: 0032908595     PISSN: 00028703     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0002-8703(99)70407-2     Document Type: Article

References (29)

1. 1. Kannel WB, McGee D, Gordon T. A general cardiovascular risk profile: the Framingham Study. Am J Cardiol 1976;38:46-51.
2. 2. Brand RJ, Rosenman RH, Sholtz RI, et al. Multivariate prediction of coronary heart disease in the Western Collaborative Group Study compared to the findings of the Framingham Study. Circulation 1976;53:348-55.
3. 3. Leaverton PE, Sorlie PD, Kleinman JC, et al. Representativeness of the Framingham risk model for coronary heart disease mortality: a comparison with a national cohort study. J Chron Dis 1987;40:775-84.
4. 4. Chambless LE, Dobson AJ, Patterson CC, et al. On the use of a logistic risk score in predicting risk of coronary heart disease. Stat Med 1990;9:385-96.
5. 5. ERICA Research Group. Prediction of coronary heart disease in Europe: the 2nd report of the WHO-ERICA Project. Eur Heart J 1991;12:291-7.
6. 6. Menotti A, Keys A, Kromhout D, et al. Twenty-five-year mortality from coronary heart disease and its prediction in five cohorts of middle-aged men in Finland, The Netherlands, and Italy. Prev Med 1990;19:270-8.
7. 7. Menotti A, Farchi G, Seccareccia F, RIFLE Research Group. The prediction of coronary heart disease mortality as a function of major risk factors in over 30,000 men in the Italian RIFLE Pooling Project: a comparison with the MRFIT primary screenees. J Cardiovasc Risk 1994;1:263-70.
8. 8. Menotti A, Seccareccia F, Blackburn H, et al. Coronary mortality and its prediction in samples of US and Italian railroad employees in 25 years within the Seven Countries Study of Cardiovascular Diseases. Int J Epidemiol 1995;24:515-21.
9. 9. Gordon T, Kannel WB, Halperin M. Predictability of coronary heart disease. J Chron Dis 1979;32:427-40.
10. 10. McGee D, Gordon T. The results of the Framingham Study applied to 4 other US based epidemiologic studies of cardiovascular disease. In: Kannel WB, Gordon T, editors. The Framingham Study: an epidemiologic investigation of cardiovascular disease. DHEW Publication No. (NIH) 76-1083, Section 31. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office, 1976.
11. 11. Pooling Project Research Group. Relationship of blood pressure, serum cholesterol, smoking habit, relative weight, and ECG abnormalities to incidence of major coronary events: final report of the Pooling Project. J Chron Dis 1978;31:201-306.
12. 12. Sempos C, Cooper R, Kovar MG, et al. Divergence of the recent trends in coronary mortality for the 4 major race-sex groups in the United States. Am J Public Health 1988;78:1422-7.
13. 13. Dawber TR, Meadors GF, Moore FE Jr. Epidemiological approaches to heart disease: the Framingham Study. Am J Public Health 1951;41:279-86.
14. 14. National Center for Health Statistics. Plan and Operation of the Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, United States, 1971-73. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office, 1979, Vital and Health Statistics, Series 1: No. 10a, DHEW publication No. (PHS) 79-1310.
15. 15. Machlin SR, Kleinman JC, Madans JH. Validity of mortality analysis based on retrospective smoking information. Stat Med 1989;8:997-1009.
16. 16. National Center for Health Statistics. Plan and Operation of the NHANES I Epidemiologic Follow-up Study, 1987. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office, 1992, Vital and Health Statistics, Series 1: No.27, DHEW publication No. (PHS) 92-1303.
17. 17. National Center for Health Statistics. Plan and Operation of the Second National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office, 1981, Vital and Health Statistics, Series 1: No.15, DHEW publication No. (PHS) 81-1317.
18. 18. Stampfer M, Willett WC, Speizer FE, et al. Test of the National Death Index. Am J Epidemiol 1984;119:837-9.
19. 19. Hosmer DW, Lemeshow S. Applied logistic regression. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc; 1989.
20. 20. Erdreich LS, Lee ET. Use of relative operating characteristic analysis in epidemiology: a method for dealing with subjective judgement. Am J Epidemiol 1981;114:649-62.
21. 21. Katz D, Foxman B. How well do prediction equations predict? Using receiver operating characteristic curves and accuracy curves to compare validity and generalizability. Epidemiology 1993;4:319-26.
22. 22. Hokins PN, Williams RR. A survey of 246 suggested coronary risk factors. Atherosclerosis 1981;40:1-52.
23. 23. Anderson KM, Wilson PWF, Odell PM, et al. An updated coronary risk profile: a statement for health professionals. Circulation 1991;83:356-62.
24. 24. Wilson PWF, D'Agostino RB, Levy D, et al. Prediction of coronary heart disease using risk factor categories. Circulation 1998;97:1837-47.
25. 25. Greenland P, Grundy S, Pasternak RC, et al. Problems on the pathway from risk assessment to risk reduction [editorial]. Circulation 1998;97:1761-2.
26. 26. Coronary risk handbook: Estimating risk of coronary heart disease in daily practice. New York: American Heart Association; 1973.
27. 27 Gazmararian JA, Foxman B, Yen LT, et al. Comparing the predictive accuracy of health risk appraisal: the Centers for Disease Control versus Carter Center program. Am J Public Health 1991;81:1296-1301.
28. 28. The Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial Group. Statistical design considerations in the NHLI Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial (MRFIT). J Chron Dis 1977;30:261-75.
29. 29. Grundy SM, Balady GJ, Criqui MH, et al. Primary prevention of coronary heart disease: guidance from Framingham. A statement for healthcare professionals from the AHA Task Force on Risk Reduction. Circulation 1998;97:1876-87.