Comments on: 'Notes on the appropriateness of 'bred modes' for generating initial perturbations'

Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography

Volumn 51, Issue 3, 1999, Pages 442-449

  Toth, Zoltan ^a,b   Szunyogh, Istvan ^a   Kalnay, Eugenia ^a,d   Iyengar, Gopal ^a,c  

^a CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER   (United States)

^b GENERAL SCIENCES CORPORATION   (United States)

^c NATIONAL CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTING   (India)

^d UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

PERTURBATION; PREDICTION; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 0032827152     PISSN: 02806495     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v51i3.13594     Document Type: Article

References (40)

1. Atger, F. 1999. The skill of ensemble prediction systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., in press.
2. Aurell, E., Boffetta, G., Crisanti, A., Paladin, G. and Vulpiani, A. 1997. Predictability in the large: An extension of the concept of the Lyapunov exponent. J. Phys. A30, 1-26.
3. Barker, D. 1998. The use of synoptically-dependent background errors in the UKMO's 3DVAR system. WGNE Research report no. 27, 1.13.
4. Barkmeijer, J., van Gijzen, M. and Boutier, F. 1998. Singular vectors and the analysis error covariance metric. Q. J. Roy. Met. Soc. 124, 1695-1713.
5. Benettin, G., Galgani, L., Glorgilli, A. and Strelcyn, J. M. 1980. Lyapunov characteristic exponents for smooth dynamical systems and for Hamiltonian systems; a method for computing all of them. Meccanica 15, 9.
6. Boffetta, G., Guliani, P., Paladin, G. and Vulpiani, A. 1998. An extension of the Lyapunov analysis for the predictability problem. J. Atmos. Sci. 55, 3409-3416.
7. Buizza, R. 1994. Sensitivity of optimal unstable structures. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc: 120, 429-451.
8. Buizza, R. and Palmer, T. 1995. The singular vector structure of the atmospheric general circulation. J. Atmos. Sci. 52, 1434-1456.
9. Ehrendorfer, M. and Errico, R. 1995. Mesoscale predictability and the spectrum of optimal perturbations. J. Atmos. Sci. 52, 3475-3500.
10. Ehrendorfer, M. and Tribbia, J. J. 1997. Optimal prediction of forecast error covariances through singular vectors. J. Atmos. Sci. 54, 286-313.
11. Errico, R. and Langland, R. 1999. Notes on the appropriateness of "Bred Modes" for generating initial perturbations used in ensemble forecasting. Tellus A51, 431-441.
12. Frederiksen, J. S. 1997. Adjoint sensitivity and finite-time normal mode disturbances during blocking. J. Atmos. Sci. 54, 1144-1165.
13. Fredericksen, J. S. and Bell, R. C. 1990. North Atlantic blocking during January 1979: Linear theory. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 116, 1289-1313.
14. Hartmann, D. L., Buizza, R. and Palmer, T. N. 1995. Singular vectors: the effect of spatial scale on linear growth of disturbances. J. Atmos. Sci. 52, 3885-3894.
15. Houtekamer, P. L. and Derome, J. 1994. Prediction experiments with two-member ensembles. Mon. Wea. Rev. 122, 2179-2191.
16. Iyengar, G., Toth, Z., Kalnay, E. and Woollen, J. 1996. Are the bred vectors representative of analysis errors? Preprints of the 11th AMS Conference on Numerical weather prediction, 19-23 August 1996, Norfolk, Virginia, pp. J64-J66.
17. Langland, R., Toth, Z., Gelaro, R., Szunyogh, I., Shapiro, M., Majumdar, S., Morss, R., Rohaly, G. D., Velden, C., Bond, N. and Bishop, C. 1999. The north Pacific experiments (NORPEX-98): Targeted observations for improved north American weather forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., in press.
18. Legras, B. and Vautard, R. 1996. A guide to Lyapunov vectors. Proceedings of the ECMWF Seminar on Predictability, 4-8 September 1995, Reading, England, vol. 1, 143-156.
19. Lorenz, E. N. 1984. The local structure of a chaotic attractor in four dimensions. Physica D13, 90-104.
20. Lorenz, E. N. 1996. Predictability: a problem partly solved. Proceedings of the ECMWF Seminar on Predictability, 4-8 September 1995, Reading, England, vol. 1, 1-18.
21. Molteni, F., Buizza, R., Palmer, T. N. and Petroliagis, T. 1996. The ECMWF ensemble system: Methodology and validation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 122, 73-119.
22. Noone, D. and Simmonds, I. 1998. Similarity of "fast-growing perturbations" and an illustrative experiment with ensemble forecasting. Aust. Met. Mag. 47, 5-19.
23. Pires, C., Vautard, R. and Talagrand, O. 1996. On extending the limits of variational assimilation in chaotic systems. Tellus 48A, 96-121.
24. Rennick, M. A. 1995. The ensemble forecast system (EFS). Models Department Technical Note 2-95, Fleet Numerical Meteorology ard Oceanography Center. p. 19 (available from: Models Department, FLENUM-METOCCEN, 7 Grace Hopper Ave., Monterey, CA 93943).
25. Shimada, I. and Nagashima, T. 1979. A numerical approach to ergodic problem of dissipative dynamical systems. Progress of Theoretical Physics 61, 1605-1615.
26. Smith, L. A. 1997. The maintainance of predictability. In: Past and present variability of the solar-terrestrial system: measurement, data analysis and theoretical models (eds. Castagnoli, G. C. and Provenzale, A). Italian Physical Society, IOS Press, Amsterdam, Oxford, Tokyo, Washington DC, vol. Course CXXXIII, Series: Proceedings of the International School of Physics "Enrico Fermi", pp. 177-246.
27. Smith, L. A. and Gilmour, I. 1998. Accountability and internal consistency in ensemble forecasting. Proceedings of an ECMWF Workshop on Predictability, 20-22 October 1997, Reading, England, in press.
28. Swanson, K., Vautard, R. and Pires, C. 1998. Four-dimensional assimilation and predictability in a quasigeostrophic model. Tellus 50A, 369-390.
29. Szunyogh, I., Kalnay, E. and Toth, Z. 1997. A comparison of Lyapunov vectors and optimal vectors in a low resolution GCM. Tellus 49A, 200-227.
30. Thorpe, A. J. 1998. Predictability studies with FASTEX data using the ECMWF IFS. Proceedings of an ECMWF Workshop on Predictability, 20-22 October 1997, Reading, England, in press.
31. Toth, Z. and Kalnay, E. 1993. Ensemble forecasting at NMC: the generation of perturbations. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc. 74, 2317-2330.
32. Toth, Z. and Kalnay, E. 1997. Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method. Mon. Wea. Rev. 125, 3297-3319.
33. Toth, Z., Kalnay, E., Tracton, S., Wobus, R. and Irwin, J. 1997. A synoptic evaluation of the NCEP ensemble. Weather and Forecasting 12, 140-153.
34. Toth, Z., Szunyogh, I. and Kalnay, E. 1996. Singular, Lyapunov and bred vectors in ensemble forecasting. Preprints of the 11th AMS Conference on Numerical weather prediction, 19-23 August 1996, Norfolk, Virginia, pp. 53-55.
35. Toth, Z., Zhu, Y., Iyengar, G., Marchok, T. and Kalnay, E. 1998. On the relative merits of increasing model resolution vs. running an ensemble. XXIII General Assembly of the European Geophysical Society, 20-24 April 1998, Nice, France. Annales Geophysicae, Part II; Suppl. II to vol. 16, C793.
36. Trevisan, A. and Legnani, R. 1995. Transient error growth and local predictability: a study in the Lorenz system. Tellus 47A, 103-117.
37. Trevisan, A. and Pancotti, F. 1998. Periodic orbits, Lyapunov vectors, and singular vectors in the Lorenz system. J. Atmos. Sci. 55, 390-398.
38. Vannitsem, S. and Nicolis, C. 1997. Lyapunov vectors and error growth patterns in a T2IL3 quasigeostrophic model. J. Atmos. Sci. 54, 347-361.
39. Zhang, Z. 1988. The linear study of zonally asymmetric barotropic flows. PhD thesis, University of Reading, 169 pp.
40. Zhu, Y., Iyengar, G., Toth, Z., Tracton, M. S. and Marchok, T. 1996. Objective evaluation of the NCEP global ensemble forecasting system. Preprints of the 15th AMS Conference on Weather analysis and forecasting, 19-23 August 1996, Norfolk, Virginia, pp. J79-J82.