Voting stability, political Gridlock: Ukraine's 1998 parliamentary elections

Europe - Asia Studies

Volumn 51, Issue 6, 1999, Pages 1039-1068

  Wilson, Andrew ^b   Birch, Sarah ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

^b NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ELECTORAL GEOGRAPHY; POLITICAL SYSTEM; VOTING BEHAVIOR;

UKRAINE;

EID: 0032754291     PISSN: 09668136     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/09668139998624     Document Type: Article

References (72)

1. Katya Gorchinskaya, 'Ukraine Joins the Party', Transitions, 5, 5, May 1998, pp. 54-59; Economist, 4 April 1998, p. 46; New York Times, 14 April 1998, p. 1; The Ukrainian Weekly, 5 April 1998; Jan Maksymiuk, 'Kuchma Faces Hard Times after Elections', End Note, RFE Newsline, 2, 83, Part II, 30 April 1998.
2. Katya Gorchinskaya, 'Ukraine Joins the Party', Transitions, 5, 5, May 1998, pp. 54-59; Economist, 4 April 1998, p. 46; New York Times, 14 April 1998, p. 1; The Ukrainian Weekly, 5 April 1998; Jan Maksymiuk, 'Kuchma Faces Hard Times after Elections', End Note, RFE Newsline, 2, 83, Part II, 30 April 1998.
3. Katya Gorchinskaya, 'Ukraine Joins the Party', Transitions, 5, 5, May 1998, pp. 54-59; Economist, 4 April 1998, p. 46; New York Times, 14 April 1998, p. 1; The Ukrainian Weekly, 5 April 1998; Jan Maksymiuk, 'Kuchma Faces Hard Times after Elections', End Note, RFE Newsline, 2, 83, Part II, 30 April 1998.
4. Katya Gorchinskaya, 'Ukraine Joins the Party', Transitions, 5, 5, May 1998, pp. 54-59; Economist, 4 April 1998, p. 46; New York Times, 14 April 1998, p. 1; The Ukrainian Weekly, 5 April 1998; Jan Maksymiuk, 'Kuchma Faces Hard Times after Elections', End Note, RFE Newsline, 2, 83, Part II, 30 April 1998.
5. Katya Gorchinskaya, 'Ukraine Joins the Party', Transitions, 5, 5, May 1998, pp. 54-59; Economist, 4 April 1998, p. 46; New York Times, 14 April 1998, p. 1; The Ukrainian Weekly, 5 April 1998; Jan Maksymiuk, 'Kuchma Faces Hard Times after Elections', End Note, RFE Newsline, 2, 83, Part II, 30 April 1998.
6. See also the detailed analysis by Peter R. Craumer & James I. Clem, 'Ukraine's Emerging Electoral Geography: A Regional Analysis of the 1998 Parliamentary Elections', Post-Soviet Geography and Economics, 40, 1, January-February 1999, pp. 1-26. Melvin J. Hinich, Valeri Khmelko and Peter C. Ordeshook, 'Ukraine's 1998 Parliamentary Elections! A Spatial Analysis', Post-Soviet Affairs, 15, 2, April-June 1999, pp. 149-85.
7. See also the detailed analysis by Peter R. Craumer & James I. Clem, 'Ukraine's Emerging Electoral Geography: A Regional Analysis of the 1998 Parliamentary Elections', Post-Soviet Geography and Economics, 40, 1, January-February 1999, pp. 1-26. Melvin J. Hinich, Valeri Khmelko and Peter C. Ordeshook, 'Ukraine's 1998 Parliamentary Elections! A Spatial Analysis', Post-Soviet Affairs, 15, 2, April-June 1999, pp. 149-85.
8. On the 1994 elections, see Dominique Arel & Andrew Wilson, 'The Ukrainian Parliamentary Elections', RFE/RL Research Report, 3, 26, 1 July 1994, pp. 6-17; and Sarah Birch, 'Electoral Systems, Campaign Strategies, and Vote Choice in the Ukrainian Parliamentary and Presidential Elections of 1994', Political Studies, 46, 1, March 1998, pp. 96-114.
9. On the 1994 elections, see Dominique Arel & Andrew Wilson, 'The Ukrainian Parliamentary Elections', RFE/RL Research Report, 3, 26, 1 July 1994, pp. 6-17; and Sarah Birch, 'Electoral Systems, Campaign Strategies, and Vote Choice in the Ukrainian Parliamentary and Presidential Elections of 1994', Political Studies, 46, 1, March 1998, pp. 96-114.
10. Andrew Wilson, 'The Ukrainian Left: In Transition to Social-Democracy or Still in Thrall to the USSR?', Europe-Asia Studies, 49, 7, November 1997, pp. 1293-1316.
11. Mykola Tomenko, 'Osoblyvosti natsional' noï vyborchoï kampanï', Politychnyi portret Ukraïny, 1998, 21, pp. 6-17, at p. 12 (also in Politychna dumka, 1998, 2). In 1994 the far right parties won 2.9% of the vote. In 1998, as with the left, a bigger share went to the main rightist group, the National Front, with 2.7%, though some of its members straddled the national-democrat/far right divide. Other far right groups won only 0.57%.
12. Mykola Tomenko, 'Osoblyvosti natsional' noï vyborchoï kampanï', Politychnyi portret Ukraïny, 1998, 21, pp. 6-17, at p. 12 (also in Politychna dumka, 1998, 2). In 1994 the far right parties won 2.9% of the vote. In 1998, as with the left, a bigger share went to the main rightist group, the National Front, with 2.7%, though some of its members straddled the national-democrat/far right divide. Other far right groups won only 0.57%.
13. Andrew Wilson, Ukrainian Nationalism in the 1990s: A Minority Faith (Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1997).
14. Politychnyi kalendar, 1997, 1, 20 August-20 September, p. 9.
15. Authors' interview with André Bouchard, head of the International Fund for Electoral Systems (IFES) in Kiev, 23 March 1998.
16. The Court's rulings can be found in Holos Ukraïny, 5 and 28 March 1998.
17. Details of all the parties and their programmes can be found in Vybory '98: politychnyi kompas vybortsya (Kiev, KIS, 1998); Mykola Tomenko & Oleh Protsenko (eds), Pravo vyboru: politychni partiï ta vyborchi bloky (Kiev, Institute of Postcommunist Society, 1998); and Hryhorii Andrushchak et al., Politychni partiï Ukraïny (Kiev, KIS, 1998). Two good earlier analytical studies are Valentyn Yakushyk (ed.), Politychni partiï Ukraïny (Kiev, Kiev-Mohyla Academy, 1996) and Vasyl' Yablons'kyi, Suchasni politychni partiï Ukraïny (Kiev, Leksykon, 1996).
18. Details of all the parties and their programmes can be found in Vybory '98: politychnyi kompas vybortsya (Kiev, KIS, 1998); Mykola Tomenko & Oleh Protsenko (eds), Pravo vyboru: politychni partiï ta vyborchi bloky (Kiev, Institute of Postcommunist Society, 1998); and Hryhorii Andrushchak et al., Politychni partiï Ukraïny (Kiev, KIS, 1998). Two good earlier analytical studies are Valentyn Yakushyk (ed.), Politychni partiï Ukraïny (Kiev, Kiev-Mohyla Academy, 1996) and Vasyl' Yablons'kyi, Suchasni politychni partiï Ukraïny (Kiev, Leksykon, 1996).
19. Details of all the parties and their programmes can be found in Vybory '98: politychnyi kompas vybortsya (Kiev, KIS, 1998); Mykola Tomenko & Oleh Protsenko (eds), Pravo vyboru: politychni partiï ta vyborchi bloky (Kiev, Institute of Postcommunist Society, 1998); and Hryhorii Andrushchak et al., Politychni partiï Ukraïny (Kiev, KIS, 1998). Two good earlier analytical studies are Valentyn Yakushyk (ed.), Politychni partiï Ukraïny (Kiev, Kiev-Mohyla Academy, 1996) and Vasyl' Yablons'kyi, Suchasni politychni partiï Ukraïny (Kiev, Leksykon, 1996).
20. Details of all the parties and their programmes can be found in Vybory '98: politychnyi kompas vybortsya (Kiev, KIS, 1998); Mykola Tomenko & Oleh Protsenko (eds), Pravo vyboru: politychni partiï ta vyborchi bloky (Kiev, Institute of Postcommunist Society, 1998); and Hryhorii Andrushchak et al., Politychni partiï Ukraïny (Kiev, KIS, 1998). Two good earlier analytical studies are Valentyn Yakushyk (ed.), Politychni partiï Ukraïny (Kiev, Kiev-Mohyla Academy, 1996) and Vasyl' Yablons'kyi, Suchasni politychni partiï Ukraïny (Kiev, Leksykon, 1996).
21. Details of all the parties and their programmes can be found in Vybory '98: politychnyi kompas vybortsya (Kiev, KIS, 1998); Mykola Tomenko & Oleh Protsenko (eds), Pravo vyboru: politychni partiï ta vyborchi bloky (Kiev, Institute of Postcommunist Society, 1998); and Hryhorii Andrushchak et al., Politychni partiï Ukraïny (Kiev, KIS, 1998). Two good earlier analytical studies are Valentyn Yakushyk (ed.), Politychni partiï Ukraïny (Kiev, Kiev-Mohyla Academy, 1996) and Vasyl' Yablons'kyi, Suchasni politychni partiï Ukraïny (Kiev, Leksykon, 1996).
22. Tomenko, 'Osoblyvosti', p. 6.
23. Komunist, 1998, 12 and 15 (April); Tovarysh, 1998, 38 (September).
24. Komunist, 1998, 12 and 15 (April); Tovarysh, 1998, 38 (September).
25. From the party election programme; Vybory '98, p. 10.
26. From the party election programmes in Vybory '98, at pp. 50-51, 13, 55 and 17-18.
27. William L. Miller, Stephen White & Paul Heywood, Values and Political Change in Postcommunist Europe (Basingstoke, Macmillan, 1998); Sarah Birch, Elections and Democratization in Ukraine (Basingstoke, Macmillan, forthcoming for 2000); Valerii Khmel'ko, 'Politicheskie orientatsii izbiratelei i itogi vyborov v Verkhovnyi Sovet (mart-aprel' 1994 goda)', Ukraina segodnya, 1994, 5; Jon H. Pammett & Joan DeBardeleben, 'The Meaning of Elections in Transitional Democracies: Evidence from Russia and Ukraine', Electoral Studies, 15, 3, 1996, pp. 363-381.
28. William L. Miller, Stephen White & Paul Heywood, Values and Political Change in Postcommunist Europe (Basingstoke, Macmillan, 1998); Sarah Birch, Elections and Democratization in Ukraine (Basingstoke, Macmillan, forthcoming for 2000); Valerii Khmel'ko, 'Politicheskie orientatsii izbiratelei i itogi vyborov v Verkhovnyi Sovet (mart-aprel' 1994 goda)', Ukraina segodnya, 1994, 5; Jon H. Pammett & Joan DeBardeleben, 'The Meaning of Elections in Transitional Democracies: Evidence from Russia and Ukraine', Electoral Studies, 15, 3, 1996, pp. 363-381.
29. William L. Miller, Stephen White & Paul Heywood, Values and Political Change in Postcommunist Europe (Basingstoke, Macmillan, 1998); Sarah Birch, Elections and Democratization in Ukraine (Basingstoke, Macmillan, forthcoming for 2000); Valerii Khmel'ko, 'Politicheskie orientatsii izbiratelei i itogi vyborov v Verkhovnyi Sovet (mart-aprel' 1994 goda)', Ukraina segodnya, 1994, 5; Jon H. Pammett & Joan DeBardeleben, 'The Meaning of Elections in Transitional Democracies: Evidence from Russia and Ukraine', Electoral Studies, 15, 3, 1996, pp. 363-381.
30. William L. Miller, Stephen White & Paul Heywood, Values and Political Change in Postcommunist Europe (Basingstoke, Macmillan, 1998); Sarah Birch, Elections and Democratization in Ukraine (Basingstoke, Macmillan, forthcoming for 2000); Valerii Khmel'ko, 'Politicheskie orientatsii izbiratelei i itogi vyborov v Verkhovnyi Sovet (mart-aprel' 1994 goda)', Ukraina segodnya, 1994, 5; Jon H. Pammett & Joan DeBardeleben, 'The Meaning of Elections in Transitional Democracies: Evidence from Russia and Ukraine', Electoral Studies, 15, 3, 1996, pp. 363-381.
31. Dominique Arel & Valeri Khmelko, 'The Russian Factor and Territorial Polarization in Ukraine', The Harriman Review, 9, 1-2, 1996, pp. 81-91; Valeri Khmelko & Andrew Wilson, 'Regionalism and Ethnic and Linguistic Cleavages in Ukraine', in Taras Kuzio (ed.), Contemporary Ukraine: Dynamics of Post-Soviet Transformation (New York, M. E. Sharpe, 1998), pp. 60-80; Miller, White & Heywood, Values and Political Change in Postcommunist Europe. Cf. Craumer & Clem, 'Ukraine's Emerging Electoral Geography'.
32. Dominique Arel & Valeri Khmelko, 'The Russian Factor and Territorial Polarization in Ukraine', The Harriman Review, 9, 1-2, 1996, pp. 81-91; Valeri Khmelko & Andrew Wilson, 'Regionalism and Ethnic and Linguistic Cleavages in Ukraine', in Taras Kuzio (ed.), Contemporary Ukraine: Dynamics of Post-Soviet Transformation (New York, M. E. Sharpe, 1998), pp. 60-80; Miller, White & Heywood, Values and Political Change in Postcommunist Europe. Cf. Craumer & Clem, 'Ukraine's Emerging Electoral Geography'.
33. Dominique Arel & Valeri Khmelko, 'The Russian Factor and Territorial Polarization in Ukraine', The Harriman Review, 9, 1-2, 1996, pp. 81-91; Valeri Khmelko & Andrew Wilson, 'Regionalism and Ethnic and Linguistic Cleavages in Ukraine', in Taras Kuzio (ed.), Contemporary Ukraine: Dynamics of Post-Soviet Transformation (New York, M. E. Sharpe, 1998), pp. 60-80; Miller, White & Heywood, Values and Political Change in Postcommunist Europe. Cf. Craumer & Clem, 'Ukraine's Emerging Electoral Geography'.
34. Dominique Arel & Valeri Khmelko, 'The Russian Factor and Territorial Polarization in Ukraine', The Harriman Review, 9, 1-2, 1996, pp. 81-91; Valeri Khmelko & Andrew Wilson, 'Regionalism and Ethnic and Linguistic Cleavages in Ukraine', in Taras Kuzio (ed.), Contemporary Ukraine: Dynamics of Post-Soviet Transformation (New York, M. E. Sharpe, 1998), pp. 60-80; Miller, White & Heywood, Values and Political Change in Postcommunist Europe. Cf. Craumer & Clem, 'Ukraine's Emerging Electoral Geography'.
35. Angus Campbell, Philip Converse, Warren Miller & Donald Stokes, The American Voter (New York, John Wiley, 1960).
36. For precise question wording, see Appendix 3.
37. For a technical explanation of Cronbach's alpha, see Marija J. Norusis, SPSS/PC + Professional Statistics, Version 5.0 (Chicago, SPSS, 1992), pp. 141-143.
38. The exact wording of these questions can be found in Appendix 1.
39. See Wilson, 'The Ukrainian Left'.
40. The total effect of a variable is a combination of all its direct and indirect effects on the dependent variable (party support). The effects are calculated in terms of standardised regression coefficients (Betas).
41. Turnout figures by oblast' can be found in Craumer & Clem, 'Ukraine's Emerging Electoral Geography', p. 17.
42. The Socialist group rose to 27, two more than the 25 deputies then required to form a faction, only because the Communists 'lent' them six deputies.
43. Russia's Socialist Labour Party played a similar holding role in 1991-93 but then rapidly faded from the scene. See Joan Barth Urban & Valerii D. Solovei, Russia's Communists at the Crossroads (Boulder, Westview, 1997), pp. 21-23.
44. Wilson, Ukrainian Nationalism, p. 137.
45. Holos Ukraïny, 18 August 1998.
46. This argument implicitly rejects the view that the impact of region of residence on voting behaviour can be reduced to the geographical distribution of individual-level attributes. We are considerably more sympathetic to political geographers who stress the importance of contextual factors than to certain political scientists who would trivialise or deny them. For an overview of debates on this subject, see Adam Przeworski & Henry Teune, The Logic of Comparative Social Inquiry (Malabar, FL, Kreiger, 1970), chapters 1 and 2; R. J. Johnston, 'Spatial Continuity and Individual Variability', Electoral Studies, 2, 1, 1983, pp. 53-68; and the debate between John Agnew, 'Mapping Politics: How Context Counts in Electoral Geography', Political Geography, 15, 2, 1996, pp. 129-146, and Gary King, 'Why Context Should Not Count', ibid., pp. 147-158.
47. This argument implicitly rejects the view that the impact of region of residence on voting behaviour can be reduced to the geographical distribution of individual-level attributes. We are considerably more sympathetic to political geographers who stress the importance of contextual factors than to certain political scientists who would trivialise or deny them. For an overview of debates on this subject, see Adam Przeworski & Henry Teune, The Logic of Comparative Social Inquiry (Malabar, FL, Kreiger, 1970), chapters 1 and 2; R. J. Johnston, 'Spatial Continuity and Individual Variability', Electoral Studies, 2, 1, 1983, pp. 53-68; and the debate between John Agnew, 'Mapping Politics: How Context Counts in Electoral Geography', Political Geography, 15, 2, 1996, pp. 129-146, and Gary King, 'Why Context Should Not Count', ibid., pp. 147-158.
48. This argument implicitly rejects the view that the impact of region of residence on voting behaviour can be reduced to the geographical distribution of individual-level attributes. We are considerably more sympathetic to political geographers who stress the importance of contextual factors than to certain political scientists who would trivialise or deny them. For an overview of debates on this subject, see Adam Przeworski & Henry Teune, The Logic of Comparative Social Inquiry (Malabar, FL, Kreiger, 1970), chapters 1 and 2; R. J. Johnston, 'Spatial Continuity and Individual Variability', Electoral Studies, 2, 1, 1983, pp. 53-68; and the debate between John Agnew, 'Mapping Politics: How Context Counts in Electoral Geography', Political Geography, 15, 2, 1996, pp. 129-146, and Gary King, 'Why Context Should Not Count', ibid., pp. 147-158.
49. This argument implicitly rejects the view that the impact of region of residence on voting behaviour can be reduced to the geographical distribution of individual-level attributes. We are considerably more sympathetic to political geographers who stress the importance of contextual factors than to certain political scientists who would trivialise or deny them. For an overview of debates on this subject, see Adam Przeworski & Henry Teune, The Logic of Comparative Social Inquiry (Malabar, FL, Kreiger, 1970), chapters 1 and 2; R. J. Johnston, 'Spatial Continuity and Individual Variability', Electoral Studies, 2, 1, 1983, pp. 53-68; and the debate between John Agnew, 'Mapping Politics: How Context Counts in Electoral Geography', Political Geography, 15, 2, 1996, pp. 129-146, and Gary King, 'Why Context Should Not Count', ibid., pp. 147-158.
50. See for example Sven Holder, 'Torn Between East and West: The Regional Factor in Ukrainian Politics', Post-Soviet Geography, 36, 2, 1995, pp. 112-132; Lowell Barrington, 'The Geographical Component of Mass Attitudes in Ukraine', Post-Soviet Geography and Economics, 38, 10, 1997, pp. 601-614; Craumer & Clem, 'Ukraine's Emerging Electoral Geography'; and Wilson, Ukrainian Nationalism, chapter 5. See also note 15 above.
51. See for example Sven Holder, 'Torn Between East and West: The Regional Factor in Ukrainian Politics', Post-Soviet Geography, 36, 2, 1995, pp. 112-132; Lowell Barrington, 'The Geographical Component of Mass Attitudes in Ukraine', Post-Soviet Geography and Economics, 38, 10, 1997, pp. 601-614; Craumer & Clem, 'Ukraine's Emerging Electoral Geography'; and Wilson, Ukrainian Nationalism, chapter 5. See also note 15 above.
52. See for example Sven Holder, 'Torn Between East and West: The Regional Factor in Ukrainian Politics', Post-Soviet Geography, 36, 2, 1995, pp. 112-132; Lowell Barrington, 'The Geographical Component of Mass Attitudes in Ukraine', Post-Soviet Geography and Economics, 38, 10, 1997, pp. 601-614; Craumer & Clem, 'Ukraine's Emerging Electoral Geography'; and Wilson, Ukrainian Nationalism, chapter 5. See also note 15 above.
53. See for example Sven Holder, 'Torn Between East and West: The Regional Factor in Ukrainian Politics', Post-Soviet Geography, 36, 2, 1995, pp. 112-132; Lowell Barrington, 'The Geographical Component of Mass Attitudes in Ukraine', Post-Soviet Geography and Economics, 38, 10, 1997, pp. 601-614; Craumer & Clem, 'Ukraine's Emerging Electoral Geography'; and Wilson, Ukrainian Nationalism, chapter 5. See also note 15 above.
54. See also Craumer & Clem, 'Ukraine's Emerging Electoral Geography', pp. 9-10.
55. See for example the assessment in Den', 31 March 1998.
56. Andrew Wilson, 'The Elections in Crimea', RFE/RL Research Report, 3, 25, 24 June 1994, pp. 7-19.
57. The Rukh Insider, 4, 4, 4 April 1998.
58. Rukh election leaflet, March 1998.
59. Arel & Wilson, 'The Ukrainian Parliamentary Elections', p. 16.
60. See Olena Haladzhii & Leonid Safonov, Deputaty Kyyeva (Kiev, Ukraïns'ka perspektyva, 1996).
61. For estimates of the size of the Crimean Tatar electorate, see Andrew Wilson, 'Politics in and around Crimea: A Difficult Homecoming', in Edward Allworth (ed.), The Tatars of Crimea: Return to the Homeland (Durham, NC and London, Duke University Press, 1998), pp. 281-322, at pp. 288, 302-303 and 322, note 135. The official Crimean Tatar electorate in 1994 was 134 834, but this figure included many non-citizens. Kiev took a tougher line on voting rights in 1998.
62. In the 1994 local elections the Crimean Soviet had 98 members. Thirty-two were elected by PR: 14 on the Crimean Tatar list; one each on a list for Armenians, Bulgarians, Germans and Greeks; and 14 on a list for the rest, the general 'Slavonic' population. The remaining 66 seats were elected from territorial constituencies where any elector could vote. See Wilson, 'The Elections in Crimea'.
63. As argued by Socialist Party leader Oleksandr Moroz in Novyi kurs Ukraïny (Kiev, Socialist Party, 1998), pp. 13-15.
64. Once the break was made, in mid-October 1998, the Socialist/Village faction was left with 25 deputies, and Tkachenko' s supporters had 15. As with the Village split in 1996, this augmented the centre at the expense of the left. Reuters, 16 November 1998.
65. For example the interview with Taras Stets'kiv in Den', 18 September 1998.
66. Sources: authors' calculations from information in Politychnyi kalendar, 1998, 7 (April) and the list of factions and members in Holos Ukraïny, 2 June 1998, p. 3. Deputies moving in and out of factions were originally mainly those elected in territorial constituencies. Only a handful of deputies elected on party lists had changed faction by September 1998.
67. Sources: authors' calculations from information in Politychnyi kalendar, 1998, 7 (April) and the list of factions and members in Holos Ukraïny, 2 June 1998, p. 3. Deputies moving in and out of factions were originally mainly those elected in territorial constituencies. Only a handful of deputies elected on party lists had changed faction by September 1998.
68. Nezavisimaya gazeta, 2 December 1997. See also Donetskii kryazh, April 1998, passim.
69. Nezavisimaya gazeta, 2 December 1997. See also Donetskii kryazh, April 1998, passim.
70. In autumn 1998 the Constitutional Court undermined faction stability by deciding that new factions or groups could be formed other than the original eight. By March 1999 Hromada, the NDP and Rukh had all split and three new centre factions (Reforms and Order, Fatherland and Regional Revival) had emerged as a result. See Kataryna Wolczuk, 'In Search of a Role: The Ukrainian Legislature in the Political System of Ukraine', paper presented at the Annual Conference of BASEES, Cambridge, 27 March 1999.
71. Jamestown Monitor, 1 July 1998.
72. This last tripartite classification is designed on the basis of the International Labour Office. International Standard Classification of Occupations: ISCO-88 (Geneva, ILO, 1990). The categories were created by conflating ISCO groups 1 and 2, groups 3, 4 and 5, and groups 6-9. This classification is broadly intended to reflect differentials in skill level associated with the occupations in question.