The future of human longevity: A demographer's perspective

Science

Volumn 280, Issue 5362, 1998, Pages 395-396

  Wilmoth, John R ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

VACCINE;

AGING; ARTICLE; DEMOGRAPHY; GENE; HUMAN; LIFE EXPECTANCY; LIFESPAN; LONGEVITY; MORTALITY; PREDICTION; PRIORITY JOURNAL;

DEMOGRAPHY; FEMALE; FORECASTING; HUMANS; LIFE EXPECTANCY; LIFE STYLE; LONGEVITY; MALE; MORTALITY;

EID: 0032540417     PISSN: 00368075     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1126/science.280.5362.395     Document Type: Article

References (18)

1. S. H. Preston, in The State of Humanity, J. L. Simon, Ed. (Blackwell, Cambridge, 1995), pp. 30-36.
2. Social Security Administration, Social Security Area Population Projections: 1997, Actuarial Study No. 112(Social Security Administration, Office of the Chief Actuary, Washington, DC, 1997).
3. R. D. Lee and L. R. Carter, J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 87, 659 (1992).
4. J. R. Wilmoth, in Health and Mortality Among Elderly Populations, G. Caselli and A. Lopez, Eds. (Oxford Univ. Press, Oxford, 1996), pp. 266-287.
5. V. Kannisto, J. Lauritsen, A. R. Thatcher, J. W. Vaupel, Popul. Dev. Rev. 20, 793 (1994).
6. B. N. Ames, M. K. Shigenaga, T. M. Hagen, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 90, 7915 (1993), K. G. Manton et al., Popul. Dev. Rev. 17, 603 (1991).
7. B. N. Ames, M. K. Shigenaga, T. M. Hagen, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 90, 7915 (1993), K. G. Manton et al., Popul. Dev. Rev. 17, 603 (1991).
8. For example, a segment of ABC's 20/20 (broadcast on 16 January 1998) reported that this discovery would lead to the development of anti-aging drugs within 5 to 10 years. Michael Fossel, a medical researcher and investor in the Geron Corporation (where this research was conducted), remarked on camera: "I think what you'll see is lifespans of several hundred years - healthy lifespans." The finding itself was reported in A. G. Bodnar et al., Science 279, 349 (1998).
9. J. F. Fries, N. Engl. J. Med. 303, 130 (1980); S. J. Olshansky et al., Science 250, 634 (1990).
10. J. F. Fries, N. Engl. J. Med. 303, 130 (1980); S. J. Olshansky et al., Science 250, 634 (1990).
11. L. Partridge, in Between Zeus and the Salmon: The Biodemography of Longevity, K. W. Wachter and C. E. Finch, Eds. (National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 1997), pp. 78-95.
12. J. R. Wilmoth, ibid., pp. 38-64.
13. A French demographer asserted in 1978 that the biological limit to human life expectancy at birth was 73.8 years for men and 80.3 years for women. Life expectancy in Japan exceeded these values in 1982 for men and in 1985 for women. See J. Bourgeois-Pichat, Popul. Bull. United Nations 11, 12 (1978); see also the Berkeley Mortality Database (http://demog.berkeley.edu/wilmoth/mortality). Similarly, the United Nations predicted in 1973 that life expectancy at birth for developed countries would equal 72.6 years in 1985-90, though later estimates showed that the life expectancy actually attained was 74.0 years. Corresponding figures are 58.7 and 60.5 years for developing countries, and 60.7 and 63.0 years for the world. See United Nations, World Population Prospects as Assessed in 1973 (United Nations, New York, 1977); World Population Prospects: The 1994 Revision (United Nations, New York, 1995).
14. A French demographer asserted in 1978 that the biological limit to human life expectancy at birth was 73.8 years for men and 80.3 years for women. Life expectancy in Japan exceeded these values in 1982 for men and in 1985 for women. See J. Bourgeois-Pichat, Popul. Bull. United Nations 11, 12 (1978); see also the Berkeley Mortality Database (http://demog.berkeley.edu/wilmoth/mortality). Similarly, the United Nations predicted in 1973 that life expectancy at birth for developed countries would equal 72.6 years in 1985-90, though later estimates showed that the life expectancy actually attained was 74.0 years. Corresponding figures are 58.7 and 60.5 years for developing countries, and 60.7 and 63.0 years for the world. See United Nations, World Population Prospects as Assessed in 1973 (United Nations, New York, 1977); World Population Prospects: The 1994 Revision (United Nations, New York, 1995).
15. A French demographer asserted in 1978 that the biological limit to human life expectancy at birth was 73.8 years for men and 80.3 years for women. Life expectancy in Japan exceeded these values in 1982 for men and in 1985 for women. See J. Bourgeois-Pichat, Popul. Bull. United Nations 11, 12 (1978); see also the Berkeley Mortality Database (http://demog.berkeley.edu/wilmoth/mortality). Similarly, the United Nations predicted in 1973 that life expectancy at birth for developed countries would equal 72.6 years in 1985-90, though later estimates showed that the life expectancy actually attained was 74.0 years. Corresponding figures are 58.7 and 60.5 years for developing countries, and 60.7 and 63.0 years for the world. See United Nations, World Population Prospects as Assessed in 1973 (United Nations, New York, 1977); World Population Prospects: The 1994 Revision (United Nations, New York, 1995).
16. A French demographer asserted in 1978 that the biological limit to human life expectancy at birth was 73.8 years for men and 80.3 years for women. Life expectancy in Japan exceeded these values in 1982 for men and in 1985 for women. See J. Bourgeois-Pichat, Popul. Bull. United Nations 11, 12 (1978); see also the Berkeley Mortality Database (http://demog.berkeley.edu/wilmoth/mortality). Similarly, the United Nations predicted in 1973 that life expectancy at birth for developed countries would equal 72.6 years in 1985-90, though later estimates showed that the life expectancy actually attained was 74.0 years. Corresponding figures are 58.7 and 60.5 years for developing countries, and 60.7 and 63.0 years for the world. See United Nations, World Population Prospects as Assessed in 1973 (United Nations, New York, 1977); World Population Prospects: The 1994 Revision (United Nations, New York, 1995).
17. Data from the Social Security Administration, 1997. Death rates are standardized to the U.S. population in mid-1990. The break in trends occurs ∼1954 for life expectancy and 1940 for death rates.
18. I thank R. Lee, S. Horiuchi, K. Wachter, and J. Campisi for helpful comments.