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A large number of atmospheric and oceanic key quantities show variability potentially linked to the NAO. Examples are the series of cold winters in Europe in the 1960s and the variability in surface pressure in the North Atlantic [G. T. Walker and E. W. Bliss, Mem. R. Meteorol. Soc. IV, 53 (1939); J. M. Wallace and D. S. Gutzler, Mon. Weather Rev. 109, 784 (1981)] , in the averaged central-northern European temperature [H. VanLoon and J. C. Rogers, ibid. 106, 296 (1978); C. K. Folland, T. R. Karl, K. Y. Vinnikov, in Scientific Assessment of Climate Change, J. T. Houghton, Ed. (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 1990), pp. 195-242] , in the strength of the polar vortex [J. Perlwitz and H.-F. Graf, J. Clim. 8, 2281 (1995) ; D. W. J. Thompson and J. M. Wallace, Geophys. Res. Lett. 25, 1297 (1998)], in the sea surface temperature [C. Deser and M. L. Blackmon, J. Clim. 6, 1743 (1993); R. T. Sutton and M. R. Allen, Nature 388, 563 (1997)], and in the oceanic northward mass transport [M. McCartney, Nature 388, 521 (1997); R. A. Kerr, Science 275, 754 (1997)].
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A large number of atmospheric and oceanic key quantities show variability potentially linked to the NAO. Examples are the series of cold winters in Europe in the 1960s and the variability in surface pressure in the North Atlantic [G. T. Walker and E. W. Bliss, Mem. R. Meteorol. Soc. IV, 53 (1939); J. M. Wallace and D. S. Gutzler, Mon. Weather Rev. 109, 784 (1981)] , in the averaged central-northern European temperature [H. VanLoon and J. C. Rogers, ibid. 106, 296 (1978); C. K. Folland, T. R. Karl, K. Y. Vinnikov, in Scientific Assessment of Climate Change, J. T. Houghton, Ed. (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 1990), pp. 195-242] , in the strength of the polar vortex [J. Perlwitz and H.-F. Graf, J. Clim. 8, 2281 (1995) ; D. W. J. Thompson and J. M. Wallace, Geophys. Res. Lett. 25, 1297 (1998)], in the sea surface temperature [C. Deser and M. L. Blackmon, J. Clim. 6, 1743 (1993); R. T. Sutton and M. R. Allen, Nature 388, 563 (1997)], and in the oceanic northward mass transport [M. McCartney, Nature 388, 521 (1997); R. A. Kerr, Science 275, 754 (1997)].
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A large number of atmospheric and oceanic key quantities show variability potentially linked to the NAO. Examples are the series of cold winters in Europe in the 1960s and the variability in surface pressure in the North Atlantic [G. T. Walker and E. W. Bliss, Mem. R. Meteorol. Soc. IV, 53 (1939); J. M. Wallace and D. S. Gutzler, Mon. Weather Rev. 109, 784 (1981)] , in the averaged central-northern European temperature [H. VanLoon and J. C. Rogers, ibid. 106, 296 (1978); C. K. Folland, T. R. Karl, K. Y. Vinnikov, in Scientific Assessment of Climate Change, J. T. Houghton, Ed. (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 1990), pp. 195-242] , in the strength of the polar vortex [J. Perlwitz and H.-F. Graf, J. Clim. 8, 2281 (1995) ; D. W. J. Thompson and J. M. Wallace, Geophys. Res. Lett. 25, 1297 (1998)], in the sea surface temperature [C. Deser and M. L. Blackmon, J. Clim. 6, 1743 (1993); R. T. Sutton and M. R. Allen, Nature 388, 563 (1997)], and in the oceanic northward mass transport [M. McCartney, Nature 388, 521 (1997); R. A. Kerr, Science 275, 754 (1997)].
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A large number of atmospheric and oceanic key quantities show variability potentially linked to the NAO. Examples are the series of cold winters in Europe in the 1960s and the variability in surface pressure in the North Atlantic [G. T. Walker and E. W. Bliss, Mem. R. Meteorol. Soc. IV, 53 (1939); J. M. Wallace and D. S. Gutzler, Mon. Weather Rev. 109, 784 (1981)] , in the averaged central-northern European temperature [H. VanLoon and J. C. Rogers, ibid. 106, 296 (1978); C. K. Folland, T. R. Karl, K. Y. Vinnikov, in Scientific Assessment of Climate Change, J. T. Houghton, Ed. (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 1990), pp. 195-242] , in the strength of the polar vortex [J. Perlwitz and H.-F. Graf, J. Clim. 8, 2281 (1995) ; D. W. J. Thompson and J. M. Wallace, Geophys. Res. Lett. 25, 1297 (1998)], in the sea surface temperature [C. Deser and M. L. Blackmon, J. Clim. 6, 1743 (1993); R. T. Sutton and M. R. Allen, Nature 388, 563 (1997)], and in the oceanic northward mass transport [M. McCartney, Nature 388, 521 (1997); R. A. Kerr, Science 275, 754 (1997)].
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A large number of atmospheric and oceanic key quantities show variability potentially linked to the NAO. Examples are the series of cold winters in Europe in the 1960s and the variability in surface pressure in the North Atlantic [G. T. Walker and E. W. Bliss, Mem. R. Meteorol. Soc. IV, 53 (1939); J. M. Wallace and D. S. Gutzler, Mon. Weather Rev. 109, 784 (1981)] , in the averaged central-northern European temperature [H. VanLoon and J. C. Rogers, ibid. 106, 296 (1978); C. K. Folland, T. R. Karl, K. Y. Vinnikov, in Scientific Assessment of Climate Change, J. T. Houghton, Ed. (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 1990), pp. 195-242] , in the strength of the polar vortex [J. Perlwitz and H.-F. Graf, J. Clim. 8, 2281 (1995) ; D. W. J. Thompson and J. M. Wallace, Geophys. Res. Lett. 25, 1297 (1998)], in the sea surface temperature [C. Deser and M. L. Blackmon, J. Clim. 6, 1743 (1993); R. T. Sutton and M. R. Allen, Nature 388, 563 (1997)], and in the oceanic northward mass transport [M. McCartney, Nature 388, 521 (1997); R. A. Kerr, Science 275, 754 (1997)].
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Ice accumulation rates measured on a single core have a large portion of noise (for example, because of redistribution of snow by wind or subannual timing uncertainties). Two neighboring cores were drilled 50 m and 2 km away from the main core covering the period 1965 to 1993. For the raw accumulation rates, the correlation coefficients between main core and neighboring core are 0.71 and 0.27, respectively. When the high-frequency part is removed (using a standard five-point triangular filter with weights 1, 2, 3, 2, and 1), the correlation coefficients increase to 0.9 and 0.86, respectively. This corresponds to a signal-to-noise ratio of about 7.5 [for definitions, see D. A. Fisher et al., in Climate Variations and Forcing Mechanisms of the Last 2000 Years, P. D. Jones, R. S. Bradley, J. Jouzel, Eds. (Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1996), vol. 41, pp. 297-328]. It also should be noted that any uncertainties in dating the cores could affect the correlation analysis. The effect on the frequency analysis is expected to be small.
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Ice accumulation rates and hence the proxy NAO index represent an annual mean averaged from spring to spring. The same averaging period is applied for the instrumental indices. The correlation coefficient between the proxy index and the common annual mean is 0.55 compared with 0.57.
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Data not shown
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Data not shown.
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41
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3543096748
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note
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C.A. was supported by the National Swiss Science Foundation (SPPU, CLEAR2). Special thanks to ECMWF; Swiss Met Office (SMA); D. Lüthi, J. W. Hurrell, P. D. Jones, and E. R. Cook for providing their data; and B. Stauffer, J. Schwander, and S. Sommer for fruitful conversations.
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