Civilians, soldiers, and strife: Domestic sources of international aggression

International Security

Volumn 23, Issue 1, 1998, Pages 107-140

  Dassel, Kurt ^a  

^a NONE

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EID: 0032389508     PISSN: 01622889     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1162/isec.23.1.107     Document Type: Article

References (164)

1. For reviews, see Michael Stohl, "The Nexus of Civil and International Conflict," in Ted Robert Gurr, ed., Handbook of Political Conflict (New York: Free Press, 1980), pp. 302-313; and Jack Levy, "The Diversionary Theory of War: A Critique," in Manus I. Midlarsky, ed., Handbook of War Studies (Boston: Unwin Hyman, 1989), pp. 262-267.
2. For reviews, see Michael Stohl, "The Nexus of Civil and International Conflict," in Ted Robert Gurr, ed., Handbook of Political Conflict (New York: Free Press, 1980), pp. 302-313; and Jack Levy, "The Diversionary Theory of War: A Critique," in Manus I. Midlarsky, ed., Handbook of War Studies (Boston: Unwin Hyman, 1989), pp. 262-267.
3. Richard Rosecrance, Action and Reaction in World Politics (Boston: Little, Brown, 1963), pp. 279-296; Arno J. Mayer, Dynamics of Counter Revolution in Europe, 1870-1956 (New York: Harper and Row, 1971), pp. 134-149; Richard Ned Lebow, Between Peace and War: The Nature of International Crises (Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1981), pp. 169-192.
4. Richard Rosecrance, Action and Reaction in World Politics (Boston: Little, Brown, 1963), pp. 279-296; Arno J. Mayer, Dynamics of Counter Revolution in Europe, 1870-1956 (New York: Harper and Row, 1971), pp. 134-149; Richard Ned Lebow, Between Peace and War: The Nature of International Crises (Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1981), pp. 169-192.
5. Richard Rosecrance, Action and Reaction in World Politics (Boston: Little, Brown, 1963), pp. 279-296; Arno J. Mayer, Dynamics of Counter Revolution in Europe, 1870-1956 (New York: Harper and Row, 1971), pp. 134-149; Richard Ned Lebow, Between Peace and War: The Nature of International Crises (Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1981), pp. 169-192.
6. Rudolph Rummel, "Dimensions of Foreign and Domestic Conflict Behavior: A Review of Empirical Findings," in Dean Pruitt and Richard Snyder, eds., Theory and Research on the Causes of War (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice Hall, 1969), pp. 225-226;
7. Stohl, "The Nexus of Civil and International Conflict," pp. 303-305;
8. and Levy, "The Diversionary Theory of War," p. 262.
9. Leo Hazelwood, "Diversion Mechanisms and Encapsulation Processes: The Domestic Conflict-Foreign Conflict Hypothesis Reconsidered," in Patrick J. McGowan, ed., Sage International Yearbook of Foreign Policy Studies, Vol. 3 (Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage, 1975), pp. 213-243.
10. Jonathan Wilkenfeld, "Domestic and Foreign Conflict Behavior of Nations," Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 1 (1968), pp. 56-69.
11. Dina Zinnes and Jonathan Wilkenfeld, "An Analysis of Foreign Conflict Behavior of Nations," in Wolfram F. Hanrieder, ed., Comparative Foreign Policy (New York: David McKay, 1971), pp. 209-210. See also Ross Miller, "Domestic Structures and the Diversionary Use of Force," American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 39, No. 3 (August 1995), pp. 760-785; and Chris Gelpi, "Democratic Diversions: Governmental Structure and the Externalization of Domestic Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 41, No. 2 (April 1997), pp. 255-282.
12. Dina Zinnes and Jonathan Wilkenfeld, "An Analysis of Foreign Conflict Behavior of Nations," in Wolfram F. Hanrieder, ed., Comparative Foreign Policy (New York: David McKay, 1971), pp. 209-210. See also Ross Miller, "Domestic Structures and the Diversionary Use of Force," American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 39, No. 3 (August 1995), pp. 760-785; and Chris Gelpi, "Democratic Diversions: Governmental Structure and the Externalization of Domestic Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 41, No. 2 (April 1997), pp. 255-282.
13. Dina Zinnes and Jonathan Wilkenfeld, "An Analysis of Foreign Conflict Behavior of Nations," in Wolfram F. Hanrieder, ed., Comparative Foreign Policy (New York: David McKay, 1971), pp. 209-210. See also Ross Miller, "Domestic Structures and the Diversionary Use of Force," American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 39, No. 3 (August 1995), pp. 760-785; and Chris Gelpi, "Democratic Diversions: Governmental Structure and the Externalization of Domestic Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 41, No. 2 (April 1997), pp. 255-282.
14. Arno Mayer, "Internal Crisis and War since 1870," in Charles Bertrand, ed., Revolutionary Situations in Europe (Quebec: Interuniversity Centre for European Studies, 1977), pp. 201-202.
15. Jack Levy and Lily Vakili, "Diversionary Action by Authoritarian Regimes: Argentina in the Falklands/Malvinas Case," in Manus I. Midlarsky, ed., The Internationalization of Communal Strife (New York: Routledge, 1992), pp. 127, 135-136.
16. For this and other critiques of the literature, see Geoffrey Blainey, The Causes of War (London: Macmillan, 1970), pp. 81-86.
17. Joseph Schumpeter, "The Sociology of Imperialism," Imperialism and Social Classes (New York: Meridian, 1955), p. 6.
18. Ibid., p. 25.
19. Jeremy J. Stone, "The General Faces Reality," New Republic, October 29, 1966, pp. 30-31. Cited from Bernard Brodie, War and Politics (New York: Macmillan, 1973), p. 495; see also War and Politics, pp. 479-496.
20. Jeremy J. Stone, "The General Faces Reality," New Republic, October 29, 1966, pp. 30-31. Cited from Bernard Brodie, War and Politics (New York: Macmillan, 1973), p. 495; see also War and Politics, pp. 479-496.
21. Jeremy J. Stone, "The General Faces Reality," New Republic, October 29, 1966, pp. 30-31. Cited from Bernard Brodie, War and Politics (New York: Macmillan, 1973), p. 495; see also War and Politics, pp. 479-496.
22. Robert Art, "Bureaucratic Politics and American Foreign Policy: A Critique," Policy Sciences, Vol. 4 (December 1973), pp. 467-490. This, I argue, is true only in countries with stable political institutions.
23. Richard Betts, Soldiers, Statesmen, and Cold War Crises (New York: Columbia University Press, 1991), pp. 6, 11-12.
24. Samuel P. Huntington, The Soldier and the State (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1957), pp. 69-70; and Alfred Vagts, A History of Militarism (New York: Meridian, 1967), p. 13.
25. Samuel P. Huntington, The Soldier and the State (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1957), pp. 69-70; and Alfred Vagts, A History of Militarism (New York: Meridian, 1967), p. 13.
26. Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1976), p. 26.
27. Betts, Soldiers, Statesmen, and Cold War Crises, p. 4.
28. Ibid., pp. 143-144.
29. Stanislav Andreski, "On the Peaceful Disposition of Military Dictatorships," Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 3, No. 3 (December 1980), pp. 3-10.
30. Barry Posen, The Sources of Military Doctrine (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1984), pp. 41-59; Jack Snyder, The Ideology of the Offensive (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1984), pp. 15-34; and Stephen Van Evera, "Causes of War," Ph.D. dissertation, University of California at Berkeley, 1984, pp. 206-214. See also Scott Sagan, "More Will Be Worse," in Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons (New York: W.W. Norton, 1995), pp. 56-57.
31. Barry Posen, The Sources of Military Doctrine (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1984), pp. 41-59; Jack Snyder, The Ideology of the Offensive (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1984), pp. 15-34; and Stephen Van Evera, "Causes of War," Ph.D. dissertation, University of California at Berkeley, 1984, pp. 206-214. See also Scott Sagan, "More Will Be Worse," in Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons (New York: W.W. Norton, 1995), pp. 56-57.
32. Barry Posen, The Sources of Military Doctrine (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1984), pp. 41-59; Jack Snyder, The Ideology of the Offensive (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1984), pp. 15-34; and Stephen Van Evera, "Causes of War," Ph.D. dissertation, University of California at Berkeley, 1984, pp. 206-214. See also Scott Sagan, "More Will Be Worse," in Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons (New York: W.W. Norton, 1995), pp. 56-57.
33. Barry Posen, The Sources of Military Doctrine (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1984), pp. 41-59; Jack Snyder, The Ideology of the Offensive (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1984), pp. 15-34; and Stephen Van Evera, "Causes of War," Ph.D. dissertation, University of California at Berkeley, 1984, pp. 206-214. See also Scott Sagan, "More Will Be Worse," in Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons (New York: W.W. Norton, 1995), pp. 56-57.
34. Samuel Finer, The Man on Horseback (Baltimore, Md.: Penguin, 1975), pp. 41-49; and Eric Nordlinger, Soldiers in Politics: Military Coups and Governments (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice Hall, 1977), p. 65.
35. Samuel Finer, The Man on Horseback (Baltimore, Md.: Penguin, 1975), pp. 41-49; and Eric Nordlinger, Soldiers in Politics: Military Coups and Governments (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice Hall, 1977), p. 65.
36. Finer, The Man on Horseback, pp. 18-19.
37. Samuel P. Huntington, Political Order in Changing Societies (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1968), p. 196.
38. Morris Janowitz, Military Institutions and Coercion in the Developing Nations (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1977), p. 23. Janowitz perhaps goes too far here, given that some scholars do argue that internal characteristics play a role. Amos Perlmutter, The Military and Politics in Modern Times (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1977), pp. 100-101, argues that internal factors such as cohesion and ideology may affect a military's propensity to coup; Eric Nordlinger, Soldiers in Politics, pp. 31-61, contends that the socioeconomic backgrounds and professionalism of officers can encourage intervention. Nevertheless, even these two scholars argue that the most important factor encouraging intervention is the illegitimacy of political institutions and governments. See Perlmutter, Military and Politics, pp. 93-94; and Nordlinger, Soldiers in Politics, p. 64.
39. Morris Janowitz, Military Institutions and Coercion in the Developing Nations (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1977), p. 23. Janowitz perhaps goes too far here, given that some scholars do argue that internal characteristics play a role. Amos Perlmutter, The Military and Politics in Modern Times (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1977), pp. 100-101, argues that internal factors such as cohesion and ideology may affect a military's propensity to coup; Eric Nordlinger, Soldiers in Politics, pp. 31-61, contends that the socioeconomic backgrounds and professionalism of officers can encourage intervention. Nevertheless, even these two scholars argue that the most important factor encouraging intervention is the illegitimacy of political institutions and governments. See Perlmutter, Military and Politics, pp. 93-94; and Nordlinger, Soldiers in Politics, p. 64.
40. Morris Janowitz, Military Institutions and Coercion in the Developing Nations (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1977), p. 23. Janowitz perhaps goes too far here, given that some scholars do argue that internal characteristics play a role. Amos Perlmutter, The Military and Politics in Modern Times (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1977), pp. 100-101, argues that internal factors such as cohesion and ideology may affect a military's propensity to coup; Eric Nordlinger, Soldiers in Politics, pp. 31-61, contends that the socioeconomic backgrounds and professionalism of officers can encourage intervention. Nevertheless, even these two scholars argue that the most important factor encouraging intervention is the illegitimacy of political institutions and governments. See Perlmutter, Military and Politics, pp. 93-94; and Nordlinger, Soldiers in Politics, p. 64.
41. Morris Janowitz, Military Institutions and Coercion in the Developing Nations (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1977), p. 23. Janowitz perhaps goes too far here, given that some scholars do argue that internal characteristics play a role. Amos Perlmutter, The Military and Politics in Modern Times (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1977), pp. 100-101, argues that internal factors such as cohesion and ideology may affect a military's propensity to coup; Eric Nordlinger, Soldiers in Politics, pp. 31-61, contends that the socioeconomic backgrounds and professionalism of officers can encourage intervention. Nevertheless, even these two scholars argue that the most important factor encouraging intervention is the illegitimacy of political institutions and governments. See Perlmutter, Military and Politics, pp. 93-94; and Nordlinger, Soldiers in Politics, p. 64.
42. Morris Janowitz, Military Institutions and Coercion in the Developing Nations (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1977), p. 23. Janowitz perhaps goes too far here, given that some scholars do argue that internal characteristics play a role. Amos Perlmutter, The Military and Politics in Modern Times (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1977), pp. 100-101, argues that internal factors such as cohesion and ideology may affect a military's propensity to coup; Eric Nordlinger, Soldiers in Politics, pp. 31-61, contends that the socioeconomic backgrounds and professionalism of officers can encourage intervention. Nevertheless, even these two scholars argue that the most important factor encouraging intervention is the illegitimacy of political institutions and governments. See Perlmutter, Military and Politics, pp. 93-94; and Nordlinger, Soldiers in Politics, p. 64.
43. The types of rules are drawn from the literature on regimes and regime change: Juan J. Linz, "Totalitarian and Authoritarian Regimes," in Fred Greenstein and Nelson Polsby, eds., Handbook of political Science (Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1975), pp. 179-185, 187-196, 264-285;
44. Giovanni Sartori, Parties and Party Systems (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1976), pp. 119-129;
45. Philippe Schmitter, "Still the Century of Corporatism," in James Molloy, ed., Authoritarianism and Corporatism in Latin America (Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1977), pp. 93-97, 102-105;
46. Michael Mann, "The Autonomous Power of the State," Archives Européenes de Sociologie, Vol. 25, No. 2 (1984), pp. 187-192;
47. Theda Skocpol, "Bringing the State Back In," in Peter Evans, Dietrich Rueschemeyer, and Theda Skocpol, eds., Bringing the State Back In (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1985), pp. 11-20;
48. and Ted Robert Gurr, Keith Jaggers, and Will Moore, Polity II: Handbook (Boulder: University of Colorado, 1989). I have added amendment rules to this mix. The reason is that groups can disagree about basic constitutional rules, and still agree on a set of rules to follow to change the constitutional rules. Groups can still resolve their differences by following the rules to change the rules (e.g., the recent transitions to democracy in Hungary and Poland).
49. My concept of a country with contested institutions is very similar to, and influenced by, Huntington's notion of a "praetorian society" (Huntington, Political Order in Changing Societies, pp. 1-92), particularly with regard to the effects of such an environment. The principal differences between these concepts are: (1) Huntington seeks to measure the strength of institutions, whereas I look only for expressed disagreements with, and transgressions of, institutions; and (2) I do not look at the extent of mobilization in a country, a key cause and indicator of praetorian societies for Huntington.
50. Obviously, if the military's use of force were used as an indicator of contested institutions, the argument would be a tautology. Given that numerous other indicators are readily available, this danger is easily avoided.
51. For discussions of related subjects, see the debate over when transitioning democratic become consolidated: Guillermo O'Donnell and Philippe C. Schmitter, Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies (Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986), pp. 65-72; Laurence Whitehead, "Consolidation of Fragile Democracies: A Discussion with Illustrations," in Robert A. Pastor, ed., Democracy in the Americas (New York: Holmes and Meier, 1989), pp. 79-95; and Adam Przeworski, Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1991), pp. 26-34.
52. For discussions of related subjects, see the debate over when transitioning democratic become consolidated: Guillermo O'Donnell and Philippe C. Schmitter, Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies (Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986), pp. 65-72; Laurence Whitehead, "Consolidation of Fragile Democracies: A Discussion with Illustrations," in Robert A. Pastor, ed., Democracy in the Americas (New York: Holmes and Meier, 1989), pp. 79-95; and Adam Przeworski, Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1991), pp. 26-34.
53. For discussions of related subjects, see the debate over when transitioning democratic become consolidated: Guillermo O'Donnell and Philippe C. Schmitter, Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies (Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986), pp. 65-72; Laurence Whitehead, "Consolidation of Fragile Democracies: A Discussion with Illustrations," in Robert A. Pastor, ed., Democracy in the Americas (New York: Holmes and Meier, 1989), pp. 79-95; and Adam Przeworski, Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1991), pp. 26-34.
54. Huntington, Political Order in Changing Societies, p. 196.
55. Ibid., pp. 192-198; Finer, The Man on Horseback, pp. 18-19, 77-80; and Janowitz, Military Institutions and Coercion, pp. 22-23, 80-106.
56. Ibid., pp. 192-198; Finer, The Man on Horseback, pp. 18-19, 77-80; and Janowitz, Military Institutions and Coercion, pp. 22-23, 80-106.
57. Ibid., pp. 192-198; Finer, The Man on Horseback, pp. 18-19, 77-80; and Janowitz, Military Institutions and Coercion, pp. 22-23, 80-106.
58. Vagts, A History of Militarism, pp. 362-363, 383-390; Huntington, The Soldier and the State, pp. 316-317, 322-325; and Finer, The Man on Horseback, pp. 64-66.
59. Vagts, A History of Militarism, pp. 362-363, 383-390; Huntington, The Soldier and the State, pp. 316-317, 322-325; and Finer, The Man on Horseback, pp. 64-66.
60. Vagts, A History of Militarism, pp. 362-363, 383-390; Huntington, The Soldier and the State, pp. 316-317, 322-325; and Finer, The Man on Horseback, pp. 64-66.
61. Huntington, The Soldier and the State, p. 316.
62. Lewis Coser, The Function of Social Conflict (New York: Free Press, 1956), pp. 87-110; John Mueller, War, Presidents, and Public Opinion (New York: University Press of America, 1985), pp. 50-58; T. Clifton Morgan and Kenneth Bickers, "Domestic Discontent and the External Use of Force," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 36, No. 1 (March 1992), pp. 25-52.
63. Lewis Coser, The Function of Social Conflict (New York: Free Press, 1956), pp. 87-110; John Mueller, War, Presidents, and Public Opinion (New York: University Press of America, 1985), pp. 50-58; T. Clifton Morgan and Kenneth Bickers, "Domestic Discontent and the External Use of Force," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 36, No. 1 (March 1992), pp. 25-52.
64. Lewis Coser, The Function of Social Conflict (New York: Free Press, 1956), pp. 87-110; John Mueller, War, Presidents, and Public Opinion (New York: University Press of America, 1985), pp. 50-58; T. Clifton Morgan and Kenneth Bickers, "Domestic Discontent and the External Use of Force," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 36, No. 1 (March 1992), pp. 25-52.
65. Huntington, The Soldier and the State, pp. 106-109; W.G. Beasley, The Modern History of Japan (New York: Praeger, 1974), pp. 247-248, 255-256; Richard Ned Lebow, "Miscalculation in the South Atlantic: The Origins of the Falklands War," in Robert Jervis, Richard Ned Lebow, and Janice Gross Stein, eds., Psychology and Deterrence (Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985), p. 114; and Jack Snyder, Myths of Empire (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1991), pp. 35-38.
66. Huntington, The Soldier and the State, pp. 106-109; W.G. Beasley, The Modern History of Japan (New York: Praeger, 1974), pp. 247-248, 255-256; Richard Ned Lebow, "Miscalculation in the South Atlantic: The Origins of the Falklands War," in Robert Jervis, Richard Ned Lebow, and Janice Gross Stein, eds., Psychology and Deterrence (Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985), p. 114; and Jack Snyder, Myths of Empire (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1991), pp. 35-38.
67. Huntington, The Soldier and the State, pp. 106-109; W.G. Beasley, The Modern History of Japan (New York: Praeger, 1974), pp. 247-248, 255-256; Richard Ned Lebow, "Miscalculation in the South Atlantic: The Origins of the Falklands War," in Robert Jervis, Richard Ned Lebow, and Janice Gross Stein, eds., Psychology and Deterrence (Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985), p. 114; and Jack Snyder, Myths of Empire (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1991), pp. 35-38.
68. Huntington, The Soldier and the State, pp. 106-109; W.G. Beasley, The Modern History of Japan (New York: Praeger, 1974), pp. 247-248, 255-256; Richard Ned Lebow, "Miscalculation in the South Atlantic: The Origins of the Falklands War," in Robert Jervis, Richard Ned Lebow, and Janice Gross Stein, eds., Psychology and Deterrence (Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985), p. 114; and Jack Snyder, Myths of Empire (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1991), pp. 35-38.
69. Schumpeter, "The Sociology of Imperialism," p. 28.
70. Jack Snyder and Karen Ballentine, "Nationalism and the Marketplace of Ideas," International Security, Vol. 21, No. 2 (Fall 1996), pp. 11-25.
71. It is not unreasonable to suppose that cleavages in the military, and ready civilian allies for the military's forceful intervention, might to some extent encourage the contesting of institutions in the first place. Nevertheless, it is clear that contestation is not reducible to these factors. For decades, countries such as Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union had numerous ethnic cleavages in the military, and yet they experienced no institutional contestation. To the contrary, these countries were held up as exemplars of strong, consolidated institutions. Only after consequential groups began to question, and defy, communist institutions did these militaries break apart, ally with civilian co-ethnics, and use force domestically. Because consolidated institutions frequently trump the divisive power of military and societal cleavages, it is necessary to distinguish contested institutions as a necessary precondition for the military's self-serving repression and aggression.
72. Huntington, The Soldier and the State, p. 60.
73. Compare Stanley Hilton, Brazil and the Great Powers, 1930-1939: The Politics of Trade Rivalry (Austin: University of Texas Press, 1975), pp. 3-5, 111-114, 120-121, to Max Manwaring, "Brazilian Military Power: A Capability Analysis," in Wayne Selcher, ed., Brazil in the International System (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1981), pp. 65-98.
74. Compare Stanley Hilton, Brazil and the Great Powers, 1930-1939: The Politics of Trade Rivalry (Austin: University of Texas Press, 1975), pp. 3-5, 111-114, 120-121, to Max Manwaring, "Brazilian Military Power: A Capability Analysis," in Wayne Selcher, ed., Brazil in the International System (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1981), pp. 65-98.
75. Jacek Kugler and A.F.K. Organski, "The Power Transition: A Retrospective and Prospective Evaluation," in Midlarsky, Handbook of War Studies, pp. 171-194.
76. On Argentina, see Gary Wynia, Argentina: Illusions and Realities (New York: Holmes and Meier, 1986), pp. 86-90. On Brazil, see Thomas Skidmore, Politics in Brazil, 1930-1964: An Experiment in Democracy (New York: Oxford University Press, 1967), pp. 14-16, 26-28.
77. On Argentina, see Gary Wynia, Argentina: Illusions and Realities (New York: Holmes and Meier, 1986), pp. 86-90. On Brazil, see Thomas Skidmore, Politics in Brazil, 1930-1964: An Experiment in Democracy (New York: Oxford University Press, 1967), pp. 14-16, 26-28.
78. On Argentina, see Wynia, Argentina: Illusions and Realities, pp. 86-116; and David Rock, Argentina, 1516-1987: From Spanish Colonization to Alfonsin (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1987), pp. 262-367. On Brazil, see Alfred Stepan, The Military in Politics (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1971), pp. 155-158.
79. On Argentina, see Wynia, Argentina: Illusions and Realities, pp. 86-116; and David Rock, Argentina, 1516-1987: From Spanish Colonization to Alfonsin (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1987), pp. 262-367. On Brazil, see Alfred Stepan, The Military in Politics (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1971), pp. 155-158.
80. On Argentina, see Wynia, Argentina: Illusions and Realities, pp. 86-116; and David Rock, Argentina, 1516-1987: From Spanish Colonization to Alfonsin (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1987), pp. 262-367. On Brazil, see Alfred Stepan, The Military in Politics (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1971), pp. 155-158.
81. Guillermo O'Donnell, Bureaucratic Authoritarianism (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1988), pp. 54-57.
82. Stepan, The Military in Politics, pp. 17-20.
83. Wynia, Argentina: Illusions and Realities, pp. 117-143.
84. Stepan, The Military in Politics, p. 75.
85. Ibid., pp. 195-198.
86. On Argentina, see Wynia, Argentina: Illusions and Realities, pp. 86-98; Paul Zagorski, "Civil-Military Relations in Argentine Democracy," Armed Forces and Society, Vol. 14, No. 3 (Spring 1988), pp. 414-420. On Brazil, see Skidmore, Politics in Brazil, pp. 5-6, 27-29; and Stepan, The Military in Politics, pp. 85-122.
87. On Argentina, see Wynia, Argentina: Illusions and Realities, pp. 86-98; Paul Zagorski, "Civil-Military Relations in Argentine Democracy," Armed Forces and Society, Vol. 14, No. 3 (Spring 1988), pp. 414-420. On Brazil, see Skidmore, Politics in Brazil, pp. 5-6, 27-29; and Stepan, The Military in Politics, pp. 85-122.
88. On Argentina, see Wynia, Argentina: Illusions and Realities, pp. 86-98; Paul Zagorski, "Civil-Military Relations in Argentine Democracy," Armed Forces and Society, Vol. 14, No. 3 (Spring 1988), pp. 414-420. On Brazil, see Skidmore, Politics in Brazil, pp. 5-6, 27-29; and Stepan, The Military in Politics, pp. 85-122.
89. On Argentina, see Wynia, Argentina: Illusions and Realities, pp. 86-98; Paul Zagorski, "Civil-Military Relations in Argentine Democracy," Armed Forces and Society, Vol. 14, No. 3 (Spring 1988), pp. 414-420. On Brazil, see Skidmore, Politics in Brazil, pp. 5-6, 27-29; and Stepan, The Military in Politics, pp. 85-122.
90. For an essentially realist argument, see Lawrence Freedman and Virginia Gamba-Stonehouse, Signals of War (Boston: Faber and Faber, 1990), pp. 3-7.
91. Rock, Argentina, 1516-1987, pp. 346-374; Donald Hodges, Argentina's "Dirty War": An Intellectual Biography (Austin: University of Texas Press, 1991), pp. 196-252.
92. Rock, Argentina, 1516-1987, pp. 346-374; Donald Hodges, Argentina's "Dirty War": An Intellectual Biography (Austin: University of Texas Press, 1991), pp. 196-252.
93. Latin American Weekly Report (LAWR), July 3, 1981, p. 9; and David Pion-Berlin, "The Fall of Military Rule in Argentina: 1976-1983," Journal of InterAmerican and World Affairs, Vol. 27, No. 2 (Summer 1985), pp. 55-76.
94. Latin American Weekly Report (LAWR), July 3, 1981, p. 9; and David Pion-Berlin, "The Fall of Military Rule in Argentina: 1976-1983," Journal of InterAmerican and World Affairs, Vol. 27, No. 2 (Summer 1985), pp. 55-76.
95. LAWR, November 13, 1981, p. 1; and William Smith, Authoritarianism and the Crisis of the Argentine Political Economy (Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 1989), p. 255.
96. LAWR, November 13, 1981, p. 1; and William Smith, Authoritarianism and the Crisis of the Argentine Political Economy (Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 1989), p. 255.
97. LAWR, July 3, 1981, p. 9; Latin America Regional Report: Southern Cone, December 18, 1981, pp. 1, 7; and Pion-Berlin, "The Fall of Military Rule in Argentina," pp. 66-67.
98. LAWR, July 3, 1981, p. 9; Latin America Regional Report: Southern Cone, December 18, 1981, pp. 1, 7; and Pion-Berlin, "The Fall of Military Rule in Argentina," pp. 66-67.
99. LAWR, July 3, 1981, p. 9; Latin America Regional Report: Southern Cone, December 18, 1981, pp. 1, 7; and Pion-Berlin, "The Fall of Military Rule in Argentina," pp. 66-67.
100. Freedman and Gamba-Stonehouse, Signals of War, pp. 3-4.
101. Herbert Feith, "Dynamics of Guided Democracy," in Ruth McVey, ed., Indonesia (New Haven, Conn.: Southeast Asia Studies, Yale University, by arrangement with Hraf Press, 1967); Herbert Feith, "President Soekarno, the Army, and the Communists: The Triangle Changes Shape," Asian Survey, Vol. 4, No. 8 (August 1964), pp. 969-980; and Harold Crouch, The Army and Politics in Indonesia (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1978), pp. 43-68.
102. Herbert Feith, "Dynamics of Guided Democracy," in Ruth McVey, ed., Indonesia (New Haven, Conn.: Southeast Asia Studies, Yale University, by arrangement with Hraf Press, 1967); Herbert Feith, "President Soekarno, the Army, and the Communists: The Triangle Changes Shape," Asian Survey, Vol. 4, No. 8 (August 1964), pp. 969-980; and Harold Crouch, The Army and Politics in Indonesia (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1978), pp. 43-68.
103. Herbert Feith, "Dynamics of Guided Democracy," in Ruth McVey, ed., Indonesia (New Haven, Conn.: Southeast Asia Studies, Yale University, by arrangement with Hraf Press, 1967); Herbert Feith, "President Soekarno, the Army, and the Communists: The Triangle Changes Shape," Asian Survey, Vol. 4, No. 8 (August 1964), pp. 969-980; and Harold Crouch, The Army and Politics in Indonesia (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1978), pp. 43-68.
104. Donald Hindley, "Indonesia's Confrontation with Malaysia," Asian Survey, Vol. 4, No. 6 (June 1964), pp. 904-913; Franklin Weinstein, Indonesia Abandons Confrontation (Ithaca, N.Y.: Southeast Asia Program, Cornell University, 1969); and Ulf Sundhaussen, The Road to Power (Kuala Lumpur: Oxford University Press, 1982), pp. 168-170.
105. Donald Hindley, "Indonesia's Confrontation with Malaysia," Asian Survey, Vol. 4, No. 6 (June 1964), pp. 904-913; Franklin Weinstein, Indonesia Abandons Confrontation (Ithaca, N.Y.: Southeast Asia Program, Cornell University, 1969); and Ulf Sundhaussen, The Road to Power (Kuala Lumpur: Oxford University Press, 1982), pp. 168-170.
106. Donald Hindley, "Indonesia's Confrontation with Malaysia," Asian Survey, Vol. 4, No. 6 (June 1964), pp. 904-913; Franklin Weinstein, Indonesia Abandons Confrontation (Ithaca, N.Y.: Southeast Asia Program, Cornell University, 1969); and Ulf Sundhaussen, The Road to Power (Kuala Lumpur: Oxford University Press, 1982), pp. 168-170.
107. Crouch, The Army and Politics in Indonesia, pp. 135-157; and Sundhaussen, The Road to Power, pp. 212-214, 227.
108. Crouch, The Army and Politics in Indonesia, pp. 135-157; and Sundhaussen, The Road to Power, pp. 212-214, 227.
109. Crouch, The Army and Politics in Indonesia, pp. 159-160.
110. Sundhaussen, The Road to Power, pp. 14-16.
111. Crouch, The Army and Politics in Indonesia, pp. 141-142, 158-162.
112. Ibid., pp. 198-199; and Weinstein, Indonesia Abandons Confrontation, p. 31
113. Ibid., pp. 198-199; and Weinstein, Indonesia Abandons Confrontation, p. 31
114. Crouch, The Army and Politics in Indonesia, pp. 163-164, 173-175, 197-198; and Sundhaussen, The Road to Power, pp. 228-234.
115. Crouch, The Army and Politics in Indonesia, pp. 163-164, 173-175, 197-198; and Sundhaussen, The Road to Power, pp. 228-234.
116. See Crouch, The Army and Politics in Indonesia, pp. 192-203; and Sundhaussen, The Road to Power, pp. 235-239.
117. See Crouch, The Army and Politics in Indonesia, pp. 192-203; and Sundhaussen, The Road to Power, pp. 235-239.
118. Michael Leifer, Indonesia's Foreign Policy (Boston: George Allen and Unwin, 1983), p. 122.
119. Evelyn Colbert, "Southeast Asian Regional Politics," in W. Howard Wriggins, ed., Dynamics of Regional Politics (New York: Columbia University Press, 1992), p. 233.
120. Robert Scalapino, Democracy and the Party Movement in Prewar Japan (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1975), pp. 379, 384; and Richard Storry, The Double Patriots (London: Chatto and Windus, 1957), pp. 106, 113-114.
121. Robert Scalapino, Democracy and the Party Movement in Prewar Japan (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1975), pp. 379, 384; and Richard Storry, The Double Patriots (London: Chatto and Windus, 1957), pp. 106, 113-114.
122. Lesley Connors, The Emperor's Advisor: Saionji Kinmochi and Pre-war Japanese Politics (London: Croom Helm, 1987), p. 169.
123. Ibid., p. 167.
124. Storry, The Double Patriots, p. 187; Beasley, Modern History of Japan, pp. 247-248; Scalapino, Democracy and the Party Movement, pp. 239-241, 365, 370-375; Gordon Berger, Parties Out of Power in Japan, 1931-1941 (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1977), p. 230; and Snyder, Myths of Empire, pp. 145-148.
125. Storry, The Double Patriots, p. 187; Beasley, Modern History of Japan, pp. 247-248; Scalapino, Democracy and the Party Movement, pp. 239-241, 365, 370-375; Gordon Berger, Parties Out of Power in Japan, 1931-1941 (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1977), p. 230; and Snyder, Myths of Empire, pp. 145-148.
126. Storry, The Double Patriots, p. 187; Beasley, Modern History of Japan, pp. 247-248; Scalapino, Democracy and the Party Movement, pp. 239-241, 365, 370-375; Gordon Berger, Parties Out of Power in Japan, 1931-1941 (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1977), p. 230; and Snyder, Myths of Empire, pp. 145-148.
127. Storry, The Double Patriots, p. 187; Beasley, Modern History of Japan, pp. 247-248; Scalapino, Democracy and the Party Movement, pp. 239-241, 365, 370-375; Gordon Berger, Parties Out of Power in Japan, 1931-1941 (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1977), p. 230; and Snyder, Myths of Empire, pp. 145-148.
128. Storry, The Double Patriots, p. 187; Beasley, Modern History of Japan, pp. 247-248; Scalapino, Democracy and the Party Movement, pp. 239-241, 365, 370-375; Gordon Berger, Parties Out of Power in Japan, 1931-1941 (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1977), p. 230; and Snyder, Myths of Empire, pp. 145-148.
129. James Crowley, Japan's Quest for Autonomy (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1966), pp. 249-256; Yale Maxon, Control of Japanese Foreign Policy (Westport, Conn.: Greenwood Press, 1973), pp. 19-21, 98-112; Scalapino, Democracy and the Party Movement, pp. 377-379; Michael Barnhart, Japan Prepares for Total War (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1987), pp. 29-30, 79.
130. James Crowley, Japan's Quest for Autonomy (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1966), pp. 249-256; Yale Maxon, Control of Japanese Foreign Policy (Westport, Conn.: Greenwood Press, 1973), pp. 19-21, 98-112; Scalapino, Democracy and the Party Movement, pp. 377-379; Michael Barnhart, Japan Prepares for Total War (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1987), pp. 29-30, 79.
131. James Crowley, Japan's Quest for Autonomy (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1966), pp. 249-256; Yale Maxon, Control of Japanese Foreign Policy (Westport, Conn.: Greenwood Press, 1973), pp. 19-21, 98-112; Scalapino, Democracy and the Party Movement, pp. 377-379; Michael Barnhart, Japan Prepares for Total War (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1987), pp. 29-30, 79.
132. James Crowley, Japan's Quest for Autonomy (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1966), pp. 249-256; Yale Maxon, Control of Japanese Foreign Policy (Westport, Conn.: Greenwood Press, 1973), pp. 19-21, 98-112; Scalapino, Democracy and the Party Movement, pp. 377-379; Michael Barnhart, Japan Prepares for Total War (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1987), pp. 29-30, 79.
133. Crowley, Japan's Quest for Autonomy, p. 273; and Connors, The Emperor's Advisor, p. 168.
134. Crowley, Japan's Quest for Autonomy, p. 273; and Connors, The Emperor's Advisor, p. 168.
135. Arthur Marder, Old Friends, New Enemies (Oxford, U.K.: Clarendon Press, 1981), p. 101.
136. Ibid., p. 125.
137. Crowley, Japan's Quest for Autonomy, pp. 187-188, 191-196; Barnhart, Japan Prepares for Total War, p. 104; and Charles A. Kupchan, The Vulnerability of Empire (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1994), p. 324.
138. Crowley, Japan's Quest for Autonomy, pp. 187-188, 191-196; Barnhart, Japan Prepares for Total War, p. 104; and Charles A. Kupchan, The Vulnerability of Empire (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1994), p. 324.
139. Crowley, Japan's Quest for Autonomy, pp. 187-188, 191-196; Barnhart, Japan Prepares for Total War, p. 104; and Charles A. Kupchan, The Vulnerability of Empire (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1994), p. 324.
140. Barnhart, Japan Prepares for Total War, pp. 44-46, 101-105; Snyder, Myths of Empire, p. 112; and Kupchan, The Vulnerability of Empire, p. 324.
141. Barnhart, Japan Prepares for Total War, pp. 44-46, 101-105; Snyder, Myths of Empire, p. 112; and Kupchan, The Vulnerability of Empire, p. 324.
142. Barnhart, Japan Prepares for Total War, pp. 44-46, 101-105; Snyder, Myths of Empire, p. 112; and Kupchan, The Vulnerability of Empire, p. 324.
143. Marder, Old Friends, New Enemies, Quotation on p. 254; see also pp. 251-255; and Barnhart, Japan Prepares for Total War, p. 254.
144. Marder, Old Friends, New Enemies, Quotation on p. 254; see also pp. 251-255; and Barnhart, Japan Prepares for Total War, p. 254.
145. James Gow, Legitimacy and the Military: The Yugoslav Crisis (London: Pinter, 1992), pp. 89, 141.
146. Robin Alison Rermington, "The Yugoslav Army in Transition," in Constantine P. Danopoulos and Daniel Zirker, eds., Civil-Military Relations in the Soviet and Yugoslav Successor States (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1996), pp. 164-165; Dimitrios Kyriakou, "Civil Society and War in Bosnia," in ibid., pp. 233-256; and Gow, Legitimacy and the Military, p. 140.
147. Robin Alison Rermington, "The Yugoslav Army in Transition," in Constantine P. Danopoulos and Daniel Zirker, eds., Civil-Military Relations in the Soviet and Yugoslav Successor States (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1996), pp. 164-165; Dimitrios Kyriakou, "Civil Society and War in Bosnia," in ibid., pp. 233-256; and Gow, Legitimacy and the Military, p. 140.
148. Robin Alison Rermington, "The Yugoslav Army in Transition," in Constantine P. Danopoulos and Daniel Zirker, eds., Civil-Military Relations in the Soviet and Yugoslav Successor States (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1996), pp. 164-165; Dimitrios Kyriakou, "Civil Society and War in Bosnia," in ibid., pp. 233-256; and Gow, Legitimacy and the Military, p. 140.
149. Gow, Legitimacy and the Military, p. 150; and Remington, "The Yugoslav Army in Transition," p. 165.
150. Gow, Legitimacy and the Military, p. 150; and Remington, "The Yugoslav Army in Transition," p. 165.
151. Gow, Legitimacy and the Military, pp. 3, 8, 52, 76; Leonard Cohen, Broken Bonds: The Disintegration of Yugoslavia (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1993), p. 203; and Kyriakou, "Civil Society and War in Bosnia," p. 236.
152. Gow, Legitimacy and the Military, pp. 3, 8, 52, 76; Leonard Cohen, Broken Bonds: The Disintegration of Yugoslavia (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1993), p. 203; and Kyriakou, "Civil Society and War in Bosnia," p. 236.
153. Gow, Legitimacy and the Military, pp. 3, 8, 52, 76; Leonard Cohen, Broken Bonds: The Disintegration of Yugoslavia (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1993), p. 203; and Kyriakou, "Civil Society and War in Bosnia," p. 236.
154. Gow, Legitimacy and the Military, pp. 1, 139-143; Remington, "The Yugoslav Army in Transition," p. 165.
155. Gow, Legitimacy and the Military, pp. 1, 139-143; Remington, "The Yugoslav Army in Transition," p. 165.
156. Cohen, Broken Bonds, pp. 218, 224.
157. Ibid., p. 226; Mihailo Crnobrnja, The Yugoslav Drama (Montreal: McGill-Queen's University Press, 1994), pp. 168-169.
158. Ibid., p. 226; Mihailo Crnobrnja, The Yugoslav Drama (Montreal: McGill-Queen's University Press, 1994), pp. 168-169.
159. Crnobrnja, The Yugoslav Drama, p. 167; and Warren Zimmerman, Origins of a Catastrophe (New York: Times Books, 1996), pp. 96-97, 141-142, 154.
160. Crnobrnja, The Yugoslav Drama, p. 167; and Warren Zimmerman, Origins of a Catastrophe (New York: Times Books, 1996), pp. 96-97, 141-142, 154.
161. For instance, see Betts's study of the post-World War II U.S. military, in Soldiers, Statesmen, and Cold War Crises; and Posen's pre-World War II British and French cases, in The Sources of Military Doctrine.
162. For instance, see Betts's study of the post-World War II U.S. military, in Soldiers, Statesmen, and Cold War Crises; and Posen's pre-World War II British and French cases, in The Sources of Military Doctrine.
163. See, for example, Snyder's study of the pre-WWI militaries in France, Russia, and Germany, in The Ideology of the Offensive; and Posen's look at pre-World War II Germany, in The Sources of Military Doctrine.
164. See, for example, Snyder's study of the pre-WWI militaries in France, Russia, and Germany, in The Ideology of the Offensive; and Posen's look at pre-World War II Germany, in The Sources of Military Doctrine.