A crisis-based evaluation of the democratic peace proposition

Canadian Journal of Political Science

Volumn 31, Issue 2, 1998, Pages 263-283

  Rioux, Jean Sébastien ^a  

^a UNIVERSITÉ DE MONTRÉAL   (Canada)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0032382905     PISSN: 00084239     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/s000842390001979x     Document Type: Review

References (81)

1. Jack S. Levy, "Domestic Politics and War," Journal of Interdisciplinary History 18 (1988), 654.
2. Thompson and Tucker state that there were "approximately 100 empirical democratic peace articles published in journals and presented at conferences" in the last 10 years (William R. Thompson and Richard Tucker, "A Tale of Two Democratic Peace Critiques," Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 [1997], 428).
3. These represent arguments based on different levels of analysis; a third argument could be based on a systemic level: the international system will be more peaceful as the number of democratic states increases. See Nils Petter Gleditsch and Håvard Hegre, "Peace and Democracy: Three Levels of Analysis," Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 (1997), 283-310.
4. For this interpretation see Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and David Lalman, War and Reason (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1992), 45.
5. Michael Doyle, "Liberalism and World Politics," American Political Science Review 80 (1986), 1151-69; Bruce Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993); Rudolph J. Rummel, Understanding Conflict and War, Vol. 5: The Just Peace (New York: Halstead, 1975-81); Rudolph J. Rummel, "Libertarianism and International Violence," Journal of Conflict Resolution 27 (1983), 27-71; and Rudolph J. Rummel, "Democracies ARE Less Warlike than Other Regimes," European Journal of International Relations 1 (1995), 457-79.
6. Michael Doyle, "Liberalism and World Politics," American Political Science Review 80 (1986), 1151-69; Bruce Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993); Rudolph J. Rummel, Understanding Conflict and War, Vol. 5: The Just Peace (New York: Halstead, 1975-81); Rudolph J. Rummel, "Libertarianism and International Violence," Journal of Conflict Resolution 27 (1983), 27-71; and Rudolph J. Rummel, "Democracies ARE Less Warlike than Other Regimes," European Journal of International Relations 1 (1995), 457-79.
7. Michael Doyle, "Liberalism and World Politics," American Political Science Review 80 (1986), 1151-69; Bruce Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993); Rudolph J. Rummel, Understanding Conflict and War, Vol. 5: The Just Peace (New York: Halstead, 1975-81); Rudolph J. Rummel, "Libertarianism and International Violence," Journal of Conflict Resolution 27 (1983), 27-71; and Rudolph J. Rummel, "Democracies ARE Less Warlike than Other Regimes," European Journal of International Relations 1 (1995), 457-79.
8. Michael Doyle, "Liberalism and World Politics," American Political Science Review 80 (1986), 1151-69; Bruce Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993); Rudolph J. Rummel, Understanding Conflict and War, Vol. 5: The Just Peace (New York: Halstead, 1975-81); Rudolph J. Rummel, "Libertarianism and International Violence," Journal of Conflict Resolution 27 (1983), 27-71; and Rudolph J. Rummel, "Democracies ARE Less Warlike than Other Regimes," European Journal of International Relations 1 (1995), 457-79.
9. Michael Doyle, "Liberalism and World Politics," American Political Science Review 80 (1986), 1151-69; Bruce Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993); Rudolph J. Rummel, Understanding Conflict and War, Vol. 5: The Just Peace (New York: Halstead, 1975-81); Rudolph J. Rummel, "Libertarianism and International Violence," Journal of Conflict Resolution 27 (1983), 27-71; and Rudolph J. Rummel, "Democracies ARE Less Warlike than Other Regimes," European Journal of International Relations 1 (1995), 457-79.
10. An anonymous reviewer suggested that bargaining norms can also be fostered in authoritarian systems such as in the former Soviet Union's Communist party hierarchy. However, in democratic societies most public officials face periodic elections, and must compete for the "median voter" (see Anthony Downs, An Economic Theory of Democracy [New York: HarperCollins, 1957]). In the Soviet example, the conciliation norms probably take the form of agreement with the current politically correct leaders in order to avoid being purged, although this is mere speculation.
11. See for example, T. Clifton Morgan and Sally Howard Campbell, "Domestic Structure, Decisional Constraints, and War: So Why Kant Democracies Fight?" Journal of Conflict Resolution 35 (1991), 187-211; Bueno de Mesquita and Lalman, War and Reason; Zeev Maoz and Bruce Russett, "Normative and Structural Causes of Democratic Peace, 1946-86," American Political Science Review 87 (1993), 624-38; Randolph S. Siverson, "Democracies and War Participation," European Journal of International Relations 1 (1995), 481-90; and Douglas A. Van Belle, "Press Freedom and the Democratic Peace," Journal of Peace Research 34 (1997), 405-14.
12. See for example, T. Clifton Morgan and Sally Howard Campbell, "Domestic Structure, Decisional Constraints, and War: So Why Kant Democracies Fight?" Journal of Conflict Resolution 35 (1991), 187-211; Bueno de Mesquita and Lalman, War and Reason; Zeev Maoz and Bruce Russett, "Normative and Structural Causes of Democratic Peace, 1946-86," American Political Science Review 87 (1993), 624-38; Randolph S. Siverson, "Democracies and War Participation," European Journal of International Relations 1 (1995), 481-90; and Douglas A. Van Belle, "Press Freedom and the Democratic Peace," Journal of Peace Research 34 (1997), 405-14.
13. See for example, T. Clifton Morgan and Sally Howard Campbell, "Domestic Structure, Decisional Constraints, and War: So Why Kant Democracies Fight?" Journal of Conflict Resolution 35 (1991), 187-211; Bueno de Mesquita and Lalman, War and Reason; Zeev Maoz and Bruce Russett, "Normative and Structural Causes of Democratic Peace, 1946-86," American Political Science Review 87 (1993), 624-38; Randolph S. Siverson, "Democracies and War Participation," European Journal of International Relations 1 (1995), 481-90; and Douglas A. Van Belle, "Press Freedom and the Democratic Peace," Journal of Peace Research 34 (1997), 405-14.
14. See for example, T. Clifton Morgan and Sally Howard Campbell, "Domestic Structure, Decisional Constraints, and War: So Why Kant Democracies Fight?" Journal of Conflict Resolution 35 (1991), 187-211; Bueno de Mesquita and Lalman, War and Reason; Zeev Maoz and Bruce Russett, "Normative and Structural Causes of Democratic Peace, 1946-86," American Political Science Review 87 (1993), 624-38; Randolph S. Siverson, "Democracies and War Participation," European Journal of International Relations 1 (1995), 481-90; and Douglas A. Van Belle, "Press Freedom and the Democratic Peace," Journal of Peace Research 34 (1997), 405-14.
15. See for example, T. Clifton Morgan and Sally Howard Campbell, "Domestic Structure, Decisional Constraints, and War: So Why Kant Democracies Fight?" Journal of Conflict Resolution 35 (1991), 187-211; Bueno de Mesquita and Lalman, War and Reason; Zeev Maoz and Bruce Russett, "Normative and Structural Causes of Democratic Peace, 1946-86," American Political Science Review 87 (1993), 624-38; Randolph S. Siverson, "Democracies and War Participation," European Journal of International Relations 1 (1995), 481-90; and Douglas A. Van Belle, "Press Freedom and the Democratic Peace," Journal of Peace Research 34 (1997), 405-14.
16. The norms versus structure argument is elaborated in Rudolph J. Rummel, Understanding Conflict and War, Vol. 4: War, Power, Peace (New York: Halstead, 1979);
17. Maoz and Russett, "Normative and Structural Causes of the Democratic Peace";
18. and Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace.
19. See Stuart A. Bremer, "Democracies and Militarized Interstate Conflict, 1816-1965," International Interactions 18 (1993), 231-50; Kenneth Benoit, "Democracies Really Are More Peaceful (in General)," Journal of Conflict Resolution 40 (1996), 636-57; and Rummel, "Democracies ARE Less Warlike than Other Regimes."
20. See Stuart A. Bremer, "Democracies and Militarized Interstate Conflict, 1816-1965," International Interactions 18 (1993), 231-50; Kenneth Benoit, "Democracies Really Are More Peaceful (in General)," Journal of Conflict Resolution 40 (1996), 636-57; and Rummel, "Democracies ARE Less Warlike than Other Regimes."
21. See Stuart A. Bremer, "Democracies and Militarized Interstate Conflict, 1816-1965," International Interactions 18 (1993), 231-50; Kenneth Benoit, "Democracies Really Are More Peaceful (in General)," Journal of Conflict Resolution 40 (1996), 636-57; and Rummel, "Democracies ARE Less Warlike than Other Regimes."
22. See Levy, "Domestic Politics and War "; James Lee Ray, "Democracies and International Conflict: Rare or Nonexistent?" International Interactions 18 (1993), 251-76; James Lee Ray, Democracy and International Conflict (Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1995); Nils Petter Gleditsch, "Geography, Democracy and Peace," International Interactions 20 (1995), 297-323; and John R. Oneal and Bruce M. Russett, "The Classical Liberals Were Right: Democracy, Interdependence, and Conflict, 1950-1985," International Studies Quarterly 41 (1997), 267-94.
23. See Levy, "Domestic Politics and War "; James Lee Ray, "Democracies and International Conflict: Rare or Nonexistent?" International Interactions 18 (1993), 251-76; James Lee Ray, Democracy and International Conflict (Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1995); Nils Petter Gleditsch, "Geography, Democracy and Peace," International Interactions 20 (1995), 297-323; and John R. Oneal and Bruce M. Russett, "The Classical Liberals Were Right: Democracy, Interdependence, and Conflict, 1950-1985," International Studies Quarterly 41 (1997), 267-94.
24. See Levy, "Domestic Politics and War "; James Lee Ray, "Democracies and International Conflict: Rare or Nonexistent?" International Interactions 18 (1993), 251-76; James Lee Ray, Democracy and International Conflict (Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1995); Nils Petter Gleditsch, "Geography, Democracy and Peace," International Interactions 20 (1995), 297-323; and John R. Oneal and Bruce M. Russett, "The Classical Liberals Were Right: Democracy, Interdependence, and Conflict, 1950-1985," International Studies Quarterly 41 (1997), 267-94.
25. See Levy, "Domestic Politics and War "; James Lee Ray, "Democracies and International Conflict: Rare or Nonexistent?" International Interactions 18 (1993), 251-76; James Lee Ray, Democracy and International Conflict (Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1995); Nils Petter Gleditsch, "Geography, Democracy and Peace," International Interactions 20 (1995), 297-323; and John R. Oneal and Bruce M. Russett, "The Classical Liberals Were Right: Democracy, Interdependence, and Conflict, 1950-1985," International Studies Quarterly 41 (1997), 267-94.
26. See Levy, "Domestic Politics and War "; James Lee Ray, "Democracies and International Conflict: Rare or Nonexistent?" International Interactions 18 (1993), 251-76; James Lee Ray, Democracy and International Conflict (Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1995); Nils Petter Gleditsch, "Geography, Democracy and Peace," International Interactions 20 (1995), 297-323; and John R. Oneal and Bruce M. Russett, "The Classical Liberals Were Right: Democracy, Interdependence, and Conflict, 1950-1985," International Studies Quarterly 41 (1997), 267-94.
27. For example, see Morgan and Campbell, "Domestic Structure, Decisional Constraints, and War"; Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace; and Joe Eyerman and Robbie A. Hart Jr., "An Empirical Test of the Audience Cost Proposition: Democracy Speaks Louder than Words," Journal of Conflict Resolution 40 (1996), 597-616.
28. For example, see Morgan and Campbell, "Domestic Structure, Decisional Constraints, and War"; Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace; and Joe Eyerman and Robbie A. Hart Jr., "An Empirical Test of the Audience Cost Proposition: Democracy Speaks Louder than Words," Journal of Conflict Resolution 40 (1996), 597-616.
29. For example, see Morgan and Campbell, "Domestic Structure, Decisional Constraints, and War"; Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace; and Joe Eyerman and Robbie A. Hart Jr., "An Empirical Test of the Audience Cost Proposition: Democracy Speaks Louder than Words," Journal of Conflict Resolution 40 (1996), 597-616.
30. Siverson, "Democracies and War Participation "; and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Randolph M. Siverson, "War and the Survival of Political Leaders: A Comparative Study of Regime Type and Political Accountability," American Political Science Review 89 (1995), 498-512.
31. Siverson, "Democracies and War Participation "; and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Randolph M. Siverson, "War and the Survival of Political Leaders: A Comparative Study of Regime Type and Political Accountability," American Political Science Review 89 (1995), 498-512.
32. David Lake, "Powerful Pacifists: Democratic States and War," American Political Science Review 86 (1992), 24-37.
33. Margaret G. Hermann and Charles W. Kegley, Jr., "Ballots, a Barrier against the Use of Bullets and Bombs," Journal of Conflict Resolution 40 (1996), 436-60.
34. Eyerman and Hart, "An Empirical Test of the Audience Cost Proposition."
35. Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1960).
36. James D. Fearon, "Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of Disputes," American Political Science Review 88 (1994), 577-92.
37. Bueno de Mesquita and Siverson, "War and the Survival of Political Leaders."
38. The glaring exceptions that may prove the rule are George Bush failing to win re-election after the US victory in the 1991 Gulf War, and Winston Churchill losing power after the Second World War. These so-called "rally" effects have indeed been shown to be ephemeral (see Bradley Lian and John R. Oneal, "Presidents, the Use of Military Force, and Public Opinion," Journal of Conflict Resolution 37 [1993], 277-300; Patrick James and Jean-Sébastien Rioux, "International Crises and Linkage Politics: The Experiences of the United States, 1953-1994," Political Research Quarterly [forthcoming 1998]), but, on the whole, researchers have shown that leaders are punished or rewarded for their performance in the foreign policy sphere (see Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Randolph M. Siverson and Gary Woller, "War and the Fate of Regimes: A Comparative Analysis," American Political Science Review 86 [1992], 638-46; and Bueno de Mesquita and Siverson, "War and the Survival of Political Leaders").
39. The glaring exceptions that may prove the rule are George Bush failing to win re-election after the US victory in the 1991 Gulf War, and Winston Churchill losing power after the Second World War. These so-called "rally" effects have indeed been shown to be ephemeral (see Bradley Lian and John R. Oneal, "Presidents, the Use of Military Force, and Public Opinion," Journal of Conflict Resolution 37 [1993], 277-300; Patrick James and Jean-Sébastien Rioux, "International Crises and Linkage Politics: The Experiences of the United States, 1953-1994," Political Research Quarterly [forthcoming 1998]), but, on the whole, researchers have shown that leaders are punished or rewarded for their performance in the foreign policy sphere (see Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Randolph M. Siverson and Gary Woller, "War and the Fate of Regimes: A Comparative Analysis," American Political Science Review 86 [1992], 638-46; and Bueno de Mesquita and Siverson, "War and the Survival of Political Leaders").
40. The glaring exceptions that may prove the rule are George Bush failing to win re-election after the US victory in the 1991 Gulf War, and Winston Churchill losing power after the Second World War. These so-called "rally" effects have indeed been shown to be ephemeral (see Bradley Lian and John R. Oneal, "Presidents, the Use of Military Force, and Public Opinion," Journal of Conflict Resolution 37 [1993], 277-300; Patrick James and Jean-Sébastien Rioux, "International Crises and Linkage Politics: The Experiences of the United States, 1953-1994," Political Research Quarterly [forthcoming 1998]), but, on the whole, researchers have shown that leaders are punished or rewarded for their performance in the foreign policy sphere (see Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Randolph M. Siverson and Gary Woller, "War and the Fate of Regimes: A Comparative Analysis," American Political Science Review 86 [1992], 638-46; and Bueno de Mesquita and Siverson, "War and the Survival of Political Leaders").
41. The glaring exceptions that may prove the rule are George Bush failing to win re-election after the US victory in the 1991 Gulf War, and Winston Churchill losing power after the Second World War. These so-called "rally" effects have indeed been shown to be ephemeral (see Bradley Lian and John R. Oneal, "Presidents, the Use of Military Force, and Public Opinion," Journal of Conflict Resolution 37 [1993], 277-300; Patrick James and Jean-Sébastien Rioux, "International Crises and Linkage Politics: The Experiences of the United States, 1953-1994," Political Research Quarterly [forthcoming 1998]), but, on the whole, researchers have shown that leaders are punished or rewarded for their performance in the foreign policy sphere (see Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Randolph M. Siverson and Gary Woller, "War and the Fate of Regimes: A Comparative Analysis," American Political Science Review 86 [1992], 638-46; and Bueno de Mesquita and Siverson, "War and the Survival of Political Leaders").
42. Some well-known dissensions include Christopher Layne, "Kant or Cant: The Myth of the Democratic Peace," International Security 19 (1994), 5-49; and Scott Gates, Torbjørn L. Knutsen and Jonathon W. Moses, "Democracy and Peace: A More Skeptical View," Journal of Peace Research 33 (1996), 1-10.
43. Some well-known dissensions include Christopher Layne, "Kant or Cant: The Myth of the Democratic Peace," International Security 19 (1994), 5-49; and Scott Gates, Torbjørn L. Knutsen and Jonathon W. Moses, "Democracy and Peace: A More Skeptical View," Journal of Peace Research 33 (1996), 1-10.
44. Rummel, øLibertarianism and International Violenceø;
45. and Oneal and Russett, øThe Classical Liberals Were Right.ø
46. Patrick James and Glenn E. Mitchell III, "Targets of Covert Pressure: The Hidden Victims of the Democratic Peace," International Interactions 21 (1995), 85-107; and Gates, Knutsen and Moses, "Democracy and Peace."
47. Patrick James and Glenn E. Mitchell III, "Targets of Covert Pressure: The Hidden Victims of the Democratic Peace," International Interactions 21 (1995), 85-107; and Gates, Knutsen and Moses, "Democracy and Peace."
48. Edward D. Mansfield and Jack Snyder, "Democratization and War," Foreign Affairs 74 (1995), 79-97; and Edward D. Mansfield and Jack Snyder, "Democratization and the Danger of War," International Security 20 (1995), 5-38.
49. Edward D. Mansfield and Jack Snyder, "Democratization and War," Foreign Affairs 74 (1995), 79-97; and Edward D. Mansfield and Jack Snyder, "Democratization and the Danger of War," International Security 20 (1995), 5-38.
50. Andrew J. Enterline, "Driving while Democratizing (DWD)," International Security 20 (1996), 183-96.
51. Michael D. Ward and Kristian S. Gleditsch, "Democratizing for Peace," paper presented at the annual conference of the International Studies Association, Toronto, 1997.
52. Eyerman and Hart, "An Empirical Test of the Audience Cost Proposition"; and Lake, "Powerful Pacifists."
53. Eyerman and Hart, "An Empirical Test of the Audience Cost Proposition"; and Lake, "Powerful Pacifists."
54. T. V. Paul, Asymmetric Conflicts: War Initiation by Weaker Powers (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1994), 170.
55. Fearon, "Domestic Political Audiences."
56. See Bueno de Mesquita and Lalman, War and Reason ; and Bueno de Mesquita and Siverson, "War and the Survival of Political Leaders."
57. See Bueno de Mesquita and Lalman, War and Reason ; and Bueno de Mesquita and Siverson, "War and the Survival of Political Leaders."
58. For example, Eyerman and Hart ("An Empirical Test of the Audience Cost Proposition") use a 1945-1984 time frame.
59. Ray, "Wars between Democracies "; and Ray, Democracy and International Conflict.
60. Ray, "Wars between Democracies "; and Ray, Democracy and International Conflict.
61. Ibid., 102.
62. Ray refers to other oft-used measures such as Raymond Gastil's Freedom House measure, or the Gurr, Jaggers and Moore Polity II measure (ibid., 93-95).
63. For example, Ted Robert Gurr, Keith Jaggers and Will H. Moore, "Polity II Codebook" (mimeographed, University of Colorado, 1989); and Maoz and Russett, "Normative and Structural Causes of the Democratic Peace."
64. For example, Ted Robert Gurr, Keith Jaggers and Will H. Moore, "Polity II Codebook" (mimeographed, University of Colorado, 1989); and Maoz and Russett, "Normative and Structural Causes of the Democratic Peace."
65. For example, Raymond Duncan Gastil, "The Comparative Study of Freedom: Experiences and Suggestions," Studies in Comparative International Development 25 (1990), 25-50.
66. Eyerman and Hart, "An Empirical Test of the Domestic Audience Cost Proposition," 606.
67. Charles S. Gochman and Zeev Maoz, "Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816-1976," Journal of Conflict Resolution 28 (1984), 585-615.
68. For a discussion of the relationship between power and conflict proneness, see Stuart A. Bremer, "National Capabilities and War Proneness," in J. David Singer, ed., The Correlates of War: II (New York: Free Press, 1980).
69. 12).
70. Kevin Wang and James Lee Ray, "Beginners and Winners: The Fate of Initiators of Interstate Wars Involving Great Powers since 1495," International Studies Quarterly 38 (1994), 39-154.
71. Siverson, "Democracies and War Participation," 487.
72. Alastair Smith, "To Intervene or Not to Intervene: A Biased Decision," Journal of Conflict Resolution 40 (1996), 16-40; and Randolph M. Siverson, "Thinking about Puzzles in the Study of International War," presidential address at the annual meeting of the Peace Science Society (International), Columbus, Ohio, 1995.
73. Alastair Smith, "To Intervene or Not to Intervene: A Biased Decision," Journal of Conflict Resolution 40 (1996), 16-40; and Randolph M. Siverson, "Thinking about Puzzles in the Study of International War," presidential address at the annual meeting of the Peace Science Society (International), Columbus, Ohio, 1995.
74. Van Belle, "Press Freedom and the Democratic Peace."
75. Mansfield and Snyder, "Democratization and War," 97; and Mansfield and Snyder, "Democratization and the Danger of War," 36.
76. Mansfield and Snyder, "Democratization and War," 97; and Mansfield and Snyder, "Democratization and the Danger of War," 36.
77. William R. Thompson, "Democracy and Peace: Putting the Cart before the Horse?" International Organization 50 (1996), 141-74; and Patrick James, Eric Solberg and Murray Wolfson, "An Identified Systemic Test of the Democracy-Peace Nexus," paper presented at the annual meeting of the Peace Science Society (International), Columbus, Ohio, 1995.
78. William R. Thompson, "Democracy and Peace: Putting the Cart before the Horse?" International Organization 50 (1996), 141-74; and Patrick James, Eric Solberg and Murray Wolfson, "An Identified Systemic Test of the Democracy-Peace Nexus," paper presented at the annual meeting of the Peace Science Society (International), Columbus, Ohio, 1995.
79. The widely used definition of war can be found in J. David Singer, Stuart A. Bremer and John Stuckey, "Capability Distribution, Uncertainty, and Major Power War, 1820-1965," in Bruce Russett, ed., Peace, War, and Numbers (Beverly Hills: Sage, 1972), 25; the definition of crisis in Michael Brecher and Jonathan Wilkenfeld, A Study of Crisis (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1997), 3-5.
80. The widely used definition of war can be found in J. David Singer, Stuart A. Bremer and John Stuckey, "Capability Distribution, Uncertainty, and Major Power War, 1820-1965," in Bruce Russett, ed., Peace, War, and Numbers (Beverly Hills: Sage, 1972), 25; the definition of crisis in Michael Brecher and Jonathan Wilkenfeld, A Study of Crisis (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1997), 3-5.
81. Jean-Sébastien Rioux, "How Did We Do? The Outcomes of 20th-century Crisis Negotiations," paper presented at the annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, Ottawa, 1998.