Multi-year prediction model of North Atlantic hurricane activity

Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics

Volumn 68, Issue 1-2, 1998, Pages 43-51

  Elsner, J B ^a   Niu, X ^a   Tsonis, A A ^b  

^a FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN MILWAUKEE   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0032281574     PISSN: 01777971     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/BF01025383     Document Type: Article

References (29)

1. Barnston, A., et al., 1994: Long-lead seasonal forecasts-where do we stand? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 75, 2097-2114.
2. Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., 1976: Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. New York: Holden-Day, 575 pp.
3. Brockwell, P. J., Davis, R. A., 1991: Time Series Theory and Methods, 2nd edn. New York: Springer, 519 pp.
4. Broomhead, D. S., King, G. P., 1986: Extracting qualitative dynamics from experimental data. Physica D., 20, 217-236.
5. Elsner, J. B., Schmertmann, C. P., 1993: Improving extended-range seasonal predictions of intense Atlantic hurricane activity. Weather and Forecasting, 8, 345-351.
6. Elsner, J. B., Lehmiller, G. S., Kimberlain, T. B., 1996a: Early August forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm activity for the balance of the 1996 season, using Poisson models. Experimental Long-lead Forecast Bulletin, 5(3), 26-28.
7. Elsner, J. B., Lehmiller, G. S., Kimberlain, T. B., 1996b: Forecast of Atlantic tropical storm activity for 1997. Experimental Long-lead Forecast Bulletin, 5(4), 34-36.
8. Elsner, J. B., Lehmiller, G. S., Kimberlain, T. B., 1996c: Objective classification of Atlantic hurricanes. J. Climate, 9, 2880-2889.
9. Elsner, J. B., Kara, A. B., Owens, M. A., 1998: Fluctuations in North Atlantic hurricane activity. J. Climate, 11, (in press).
10. Elsner, J. B., Kara, A. B., 1999: Hurricanes of the North Atlantic: Climate and Society. New York: Oxford University Press, 500 pp.
11. Goldenberg, S. B., Shapiro, L. J., 1996: Physical mechanisms for the association of El Niño and west African rainfall with Atlantic major hurricane activity. J. Climate, 9, 1169-1187.
12. Gray, W. M., 1984: Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency: Part II: Forecasting its variability. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 1669-1683.
13. Gray, W. M., Landsea, C. W., Mielke Jr., P. W., Berry, K. J., 1993: Predicting Atlantic basin seasonal tropical cyclone activity by 1 August. Weather and Forecasting, 8, 73-86.
14. Gray, W. M., 1994: LAD multiple linear regression forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm activity for 1995. Experimental Long-lead Forecast Bulletin, 3(4), 12-13.
15. Gray, W. M., Landsea, C. W., Mielke, P. W., Berry, K., Knaff, J., 1996: LAD multiple linear regression forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm activity for 1997. Experimental Long-lead Forecast Bulletin, 5(4), 37-40.
16. Gray, W. M., Landsea, C. W., Mielke, P. W., Berry, K., Knaff, J., 1997: LAD multiple linear regression forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm activity for 1997. Experimental Long-lead Forecast Bulletin, 6(2), 52-54.
17. Jiang, N., Ghil, M., Neelin, J. D., 1996: Forecasts of Niño 3 SST anomalies and SOI based on singular spectrum analysis combined with the maximum entropy method. Experimental Long-lead Forecast Bulletin, 5(2), 51-53.
18. Keppenne, C. L., Ghil, M., 1992: Extreme weather events. Nature, 358, 547.
19. Keppenne, C. L., Lall, U., 1996: Complex singular spectrum analysis and multivariate adaptive regression splines applied to forecasting the southern oscillation. Experimental Long-lead Forecast Bulletin, 5(2), 54-56.
20. Kendall, M. G., Stuart, A., 1977: The Advanced Theory of Statistics, 4th edn. London: Griffin, 455 pp.
21. Kimberlain, T. B., Elsner, J. B., 1998: The 1995 and 1996 North Atlantic hurricane seasons: A return of the tropical-only hurricane. J. Climate, 11 (in press).
22. Landsea, C. W., Gray, W. M., Mielke, P. W., Berry, K. J., 1994: Seasonal forecasting of Atlantic hurricane activity. Weather, 49, 273-284.
23. Lehmiller, G. S., Kimberlain, T. B., Elsner, J. B., 1997: Seasonal prediction models for the North Atlantic basin hurricane location. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 1780-1791.
24. Neumann, C. J., Jarvinen, B. R., McAdie, C. J., Elms, J D., 1993: Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, 1871-1992. NOAA Historical Climatology Series 6-2, 193 pp.
25. Nicholls, N., 1994: SOI-based forecast of Australian region tropical cyclone activity. Experimental Long-lead Forecast Bulletin, 3(4), 16-17.
26. Michaelsen, J., 1987: Cross-validation in statistical climate forecast models. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 26, 1589-1600.
27. Risk Prediction Initiative, 1997: Tropical Cyclones and Climate Variability: A Research Agenda for the Next Century. Malmquist, D. L., (ed.) Bermuda Biological Station for Research, 46 pp.
28. Schwartz, G., 1978: Estimating the dimension of a model. The Annals of Statistics, 6, 461-464.
29. Vautard, R., Yiou, P., Ghil, M., 1992: Singular spectrum analysis: a toolkit for short, noisy and chaotic series. Physica D, 58, 95-126.