Pipelines and pipedreams: Can Russia continue to dominate Caspian basin energy?

Problems of Post-Communism

Volumn 45, Issue 5, 1998, Pages 26-36

  Adams, Jan S ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0032172422     PISSN: 10758216     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/10758216.1998.11655804     Document Type: Article

References (93)

1. Rosemarie Forsythe, The Politics of Oil in the Caucasus and Central Asia (Oxford: International Institute for Strategic Studies, Adelphi Paper no. 300, May 1996), p. 6; U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, "Caspian Sea Region," Country Analysis Briefs (October 29, 1997): 9.
2. Rosemarie Forsythe, The Politics of Oil in the Caucasus and Central Asia (Oxford: International Institute for Strategic Studies, Adelphi Paper no. 300, May 1996), p. 6; U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, "Caspian Sea Region," Country Analysis Briefs (October 29, 1997): 9.
3. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual, 1995 (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Energy, December 1996), pp. 107-9;
4. U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, "Turkmenistan," Country Analysis Briefs (September 17, 1997): 3.
5. According to the American Petroleum Institute, U.S. consumption of oil grew from 16,665,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 1987 to 17,725,000 b/d in 1995; during the same period, production of oil fell from 8,349,000 b/d to 6,560,000 b/d.
6. U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, "Azerbaijan," Country Analysis Briefs (May 1996); oil production figures for 1996 indicate modest growth: the Energy Information Administration gives a figure of 198,700 b/d, cited by Steve Levine, New York Times (February 17, 1998); Petroleum Economist, in association with Rosneftgazstroi, estimates 185,000 b/d, in "Sponsored Section," Energy in the CIS and Eastern Europe 1998 (London: Petroleum Economist, 1998), p. xv.
7. U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, "Azerbaijan," Country Analysis Briefs (May 1996); oil production figures for 1996 indicate modest growth: the Energy Information Administration gives a figure of 198,700 b/d, cited by Steve Levine, New York Times (February 17, 1998); Petroleum Economist, in association with Rosneftgazstroi, estimates 185,000 b/d, in "Sponsored Section," Energy in the CIS and Eastern Europe 1998 (London: Petroleum Economist, 1998), p.xv.
8. U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, "Azerbaijan," Country Analysis Briefs (May 1996); oil production figures for 1996 indicate modest growth: the Energy Information Administration gives a figure of 198,700 b/d, cited by Steve Levine, New York Times (February 17, 1998); Petroleum Economist, in association with Rosneftgazstroi, estimates 185,000 b/d, in "Sponsored Section," Energy in the CIS and Eastern Europe 1998 (London: Petroleum Economist, 1998),p.xv.
9. The consortium in May 1996 included British Petroleum (17.1 percent), Amoco (17.01 percent, United States), SOCAR ( 10 percent, Azerbaijan), Lukoil (Russia, 10 percent), Unocal (9.52 percent), Statoil (8.6 percent, Norway), Itochu (7.45 percent, Japan), Turkish Petrol (6.75 percent), Exxon (5 percent, United States), Ramco (2.08 percent, UK), Pennzoil (4.8 percent, United States), and Delta-Nimir (1.68 percent).
10. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) Newsline (July 3, 1998).
11. Robert E. Ebel, Energy Choices in the Near Abroad: The Haves and Have-nots Face the Future (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1997), pp. 51-56.
12. RFE/RL Newsline (September 8, 1997).
13. Interfax (August 26, 1997), translated in World News Connection, Daily Report: Central Eurasia [hereinafter, WNC:SOV] (August 26, 1997).
14. Interfax Oil, Gas & Coal Report for January 30-February 5, 1998 (January 28, 1998), in WNC:SOV (February 3, 1998).
15. Interfax Oil, Coal, and Gas Report (June 19-25, 1998).
16. Ibid.
17. Forsythe, Politics of Oil, p. 37.
18. Jamestown Monitor (June 5, 1997); ITAR-TASS (September 24, 1997); in WNC:SOV (September 24, 1997).
19. ITAR-TASS (August 17, 1997); in WNC:SOV (August 17, 1997).
20. This profile was completed by a consortium. The KazakstanCaspi Shelf (KCS) is made up of Agip (Italy), British Gas (UK), BP/Statoil (UK/Norway), Mobil (United States), Shell (UK/Netherlands), Totale (France), and Kazakoil.
21. IRNA [Teheran] (September 6, 1997), in WNC:SOV (September 6, 1997); Pavel Shinkarenko, "Caspian Oil - Bone of Contention," Rossiiskie vesti (January 27, 1998), in WNC:SOV (February 3, 1998).
22. IRNA [Teheran] (September 6, 1997), in WNC:SOV (September 6, 1997); Pavel Shinkarenko, "Caspian Oil - Bone of Contention," Rossiiskie vesti (January 27, 1998), in WNC:SOV (February 3, 1998).
23. "Central Asia Survey," Economist (February 7, 1998): 7; Ebel, Energy Choices, pp. 73 and 91.
24. "Central Asia Survey," Economist (February 7, 1998): 7; Ebel, Energy Choices, pp. 73 and 91.
25. Interfax (August 18, 1997), in WNC:SOV (August 18, 1997).
26. Members of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium are Russia (24 percent), Kazakstan (19 percent), Chevron (15 percent), LukArco (12.5 percent, Russia/United States), Mobil (7.5 percent), Rosneft-Shell (7.5 percent, Russia-UK/ Netherlands), Oman (7 percent), British Gas (2 percent, UK), Agip (2 percent, Italy), Kazak Munaigaz (1.75 percent, Kazakstan), and Oryx (1.75 percent, United States); U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, "Kazakstan," Country Analysis Briefs (December 1997).
27. Interfax Oil, Coal and Gas Report (July 3-9, 1998).
28. "Kazakoil Company President on Oil, Gas Development Plans," Almaty delovaia nedelia (August 1, 1997), in WNC:SOV (August 12, 1997).
29. Interfax Oil, Coal, & Gas Report (April 16, 1997), in WNC:SOV (April 16, 1997).
30. Interfax Oil, Coal, & Gas Report (January 27, 1998), in WNC:SOV (January 27, 1998).
31. Interfax Oil, Gas, & Coal Report (August 13, 1997), in WNC:SOV (August 14, 1997).
32. Introduction, in Michael Mandelbaum, ed., Central Asia and the World (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 1994), p. 10.
33. Economist (January 17, 1998): 98.
34. Sergei Kolchin, "Turkmenistan's Oil and Gas Complex," Jamestown Foundation Prism (January 9, 1998).
35. U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, "Turkmenistan," Country Analysis Briefs (September 17, 1997).
36. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Brent Scowcroft, and Richard Murphy, "Differentiated Containment," Foreign Affairs 76, no. 3 (May/June 1997): 20-30; David B. Ottaway and Dan Morgan, "Send in the Heavy Hitters: Former Top U.S. Government Officials Are Angling for a Gusher in the Caspian Oil Fields," Washington Post National Weekly Edition (July 14, 1997); James A. Baker 3d, "America's Vital Interest in the 'New Silk Road,'"New York Times (July 21, 1997); "Turkey and Iran: It Will Burn Nicely, Anyway," Economist (August 2, 1997): 30; Stephan-Goetz Richter, "America's Iran Policy Rethinks Itself," New York Times (August 18, 1997).
37. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Brent Scowcroft, and Richard Murphy, "Differentiated Containment," Foreign Affairs 76, no. 3 (May/June 1997): 20-30; David B. Ottaway and Dan Morgan, "Send in the Heavy Hitters: Former Top U.S. Government Officials Are Angling for a Gusher in the Caspian Oil Fields," Washington Post National Weekly Edition (July 14, 1997); James A. Baker 3d, "America's Vital Interest in the 'New Silk Road,'"New York Times (July 21, 1997); "Turkey and Iran: It Will Burn Nicely, Anyway," Economist (August 2, 1997): 30; Stephan-Goetz Richter, "America's Iran Policy Rethinks Itself," New York Times (August 18, 1997).
38. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Brent Scowcroft, and Richard Murphy, "Differentiated Containment," Foreign Affairs 76, no. 3 (May/June 1997): 20-30; David B. Ottaway and Dan Morgan, "Send in the Heavy Hitters: Former Top U.S. Government Officials Are Angling for a Gusher in the Caspian Oil Fields," Washington Post National Weekly Edition (July 14, 1997); James A. Baker 3d, "America's Vital Interest in the 'New Silk Road,'"New York Times (July 21, 1997); "Turkey and Iran: It Will Burn Nicely, Anyway," Economist (August 2, 1997): 30; Stephan-Goetz Richter, "America's Iran Policy Rethinks Itself," New York Times (August 18, 1997).
39. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Brent Scowcroft, and Richard Murphy, "Differentiated Containment," Foreign Affairs 76, no. 3 (May/June 1997): 20-30; David B. Ottaway and Dan Morgan, "Send in the Heavy Hitters: Former Top U.S. Government Officials Are Angling for a Gusher in the Caspian Oil Fields," Washington Post National Weekly Edition (July 14, 1997); James A. Baker 3d, "America's Vital Interest in the 'New Silk Road,'"New York Times (July 21, 1997); "Turkey and Iran: It Will Burn Nicely, Anyway," Economist (August 2, 1997): 30; Stephan-Goetz Richter, "America's Iran Policy Rethinks Itself," New York Times (August 18, 1997).
40. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Brent Scowcroft, and Richard Murphy, "Differentiated Containment," Foreign Affairs 76, no. 3 (May/June 1997): 20-30; David B. Ottaway and Dan Morgan, "Send in the Heavy Hitters: Former Top U.S. Government Officials Are Angling for a Gusher in the Caspian Oil Fields," Washington Post National Weekly Edition (July 14, 1997); James A. Baker 3d, "America's Vital Interest in the 'New Silk Road,'"New York Times (July 21, 1997); "Turkey and Iran: It Will Burn Nicely, Anyway," Economist (August 2, 1997): 30; Stephan-Goetz Richter, "America's Iran Policy Rethinks Itself," New York Times (August 18, 1997).
41. British Petroleum, cited in RFE/RL Newsline (December 29, 1997).
42. Jamestown Monitor (January 28, 1998): 8; the consortium led by Unocal includes the Turkmen government, Delta of Saudi Arabia, Crescent Group of Pakistan, Itochu of Japan, Hyundai of South Korea, and Inpex of Indonesia. Gazprom is said to have been offered a minor stake.
43. Interfax Oil, Gas, & Coal Report for August 15, 1997 (August 13, 1997), in WNC:SOV (August 14, 1997); RFE/RL Newsline (February 25, 1998). Addressing the Fuel and Energy Ministry, Chernomyrdin voiced alarm at the "negative trends" in the Russian energy sector, which recorded a 3.2 percent drop in production during 1997.
44. Interfax Oil, Gas, & Coal Report for August 15, 1997 (August 13, 1997), in WNC:SOV (August 14, 1997); RFE/RL Newsline (February 25, 1998). Addressing the Fuel and Energy Ministry, Chernomyrdin voiced alarm at the "negative trends" in the Russian energy sector, which recorded a 3.2 percent drop in production during 1997.
45. U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, "Russia," Country Analysis Briefs (August 5, 1997); Igor Khripunov and Mary M. Matthews, "Russia's Oil and Gas Interest Group and Its Foreign Policy Agenda," Problems of Post-Communism 43, no. 3 (May-June 1996): 47 n5.
46. U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, "Russia," Country Analysis Briefs (August 5, 1997); Igor Khripunov and Mary M. Matthews, "Russia's Oil and Gas Interest Group and Its Foreign Policy Agenda," Problems of Post-Communism 43, no. 3 (May-June 1996): 47 n5.
47. "Planning the Rebuilding of the Russian Gas Industry," Petroleum Economist (March 1996): 4.
48. Steve Levine, "Moscow Pressures Its Neighbors," New York Times (September 9, 1995); Forsythe, Politics of Oil, p. 42.
49. Steve Levine, "Moscow Pressures Its Neighbors," New York Times (September 9, 1995); Forsythe, Politics of Oil, p. 42.
50. Ebel, Energy Choices, pp. 131-34, 137, 141-43.
51. Izabel Gorst, "Gazprom Treats 'em Mean to Keep 'em Keen," Petroleum Economist (April 1997).
52. Isabel Gorst, "Russia Dithers over Transit Role," Petroleum Economist (January 1998): 36.
53. Ebel, Energy Choices, pp. 91, 107-10.
54. Rabochnaia tribuna (January 16, 1998), in WNC:SOV (January 29, 1998).
55. New York Times (January 20, 1998), A3
56. Ebel, Energy Choices, p. 94.
57. Jamestown Monitor (October 1, 1997); RFE/RL Newsline (October 1, 1997).
58. RFE/RL Newsline (October 6, 1997).
59. Defying the Iran/Libya Sanctions Act, a Senate bill sponsored by Alphonse D'Almano (R-NY) and Edward Kennedy (D-MA), Gazpromofficials agreed with France's prime minister, who said, "American lawmakers pass laws for the Americans."
60. For an informative discussion of this point, see Khripunov and Matthews, "Russia's Oil and Gas."
61. A regional coalition known as GUAM has allied Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova to evade Moscow's control over future energy corridors. Brought together by their mutual interest in oil and their various grievances against Russia, this group declares that it will cooperate in devising and implementing marketing and pipeline strategies that are free from Russian control; "'GUAM' Countries United by Complaints Against Russia," Rossiiskaia gazeta (December 2, 1997), 7, in WNC:SOV (December 3, 1997).
62. The January 1997 meeting in Bishkek of the three presidents of the Central Asian Union "worked out a special status as observers for Russia and Tajikistan," Delovoi mir (January 15, 1997), in WNC:SOV (January 15, 1997); on the Central Asian Union, see Zbigniew Brzezinski and Paige Sullivan, eds., Russia and the CIS: Documents, Data, and Analysis (Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 1997), pp. 717, 725, 727, and 731.
63. The January 1997 meeting in Bishkek of the three presidents of the Central Asian Union "worked out a special status as observers for Russia and Tajikistan," Delovoi mir (January 15, 1997), in WNC:SOV (January 15, 1997); on the Central Asian Union, see Zbigniew Brzezinski and Paige Sullivan, eds., Russia and the CIS: Documents, Data, and Analysis (Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 1997), pp. 717, 725, 727, and 731.
64. Rossiiskaia gazeta (January 10, 1998), 7, in WNC:SOV (January 13, 1998); Khripunov and Matthews, "Russia's Oil and Gas," p. 46.
65. Rossiiskaia gazeta (January 10, 1998), 7, in WNC:SOV (January 13, 1998); Khripunov and Matthews, "Russia's Oil and Gas," p. 46.
66. Rossiiskaia gazeta, weekend ed. (December 19, 1997), 5, in WNC:SOV (December 22, 1997).
67. Snark, Russian agencies (December 19-21), in Jamestown Monitor (December 22, 1997).
68. Jan S. Adams, "The CIS States: Going Global," CSIS Post-Soviet Prospects 5, no. 1 (March 1997).
69. U.S. Department of Energy, Monthly Oil Market Chronology, November 1997 (December 19, 1997).
70. Interfax (December 28, 1997), in WNC:SOV (December 28, 1998).
71. Interfax (October 28, 1997), in WNC:SOV (October 28, 1998).
72. ITAR-TASS (December 11, 1997), in WNC:SOV (December 11, 1997).
73. IRNA [Teheran] (April 29, 1997), in WNC:SOV (April 29, 1997); the ECO membership includes six CIS members (Azerbaijan, Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan) and four neighbors (Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey); a major purpose is to cooperate in developing regional projects in energy production, transport, and communications, and creating trade and economic infrastructures; Rossiiskaia gazeta (Ekonomicheskii soiuz) (January 18, 1996), 11; see also Oles M. Smolansky, "Turkish and Iranian Policies in Central Asia," in Central Asia, ed. Hafeez Malik (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1994), p. 286.
74. IRNA [Teheran] (April 29, 1997), in WNC:SOV (April 29, 1997); the ECO membership includes six CIS members (Azerbaijan, Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan) and four neighbors (Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey); a major purpose is to cooperate in developing regional projects in energy production, transport, and communications, and creating trade and economic infrastructures; Rossiiskaia gazeta (Ekonomicheskii soiuz) (January 18, 1996), 11; see also Oles M. Smolansky, "Turkish and Iranian Policies in Central Asia," in Central Asia, ed. Hafeez Malik (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1994), p. 286.
75. IRNA [Teheran] (April 29, 1997), in WNC:SOV (April 29, 1997); the ECO membership includes six CIS members (Azerbaijan, Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan) and four neighbors (Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey); a major purpose is to cooperate in developing regional projects in energy production, transport, and communications, and creating trade and economic infrastructures; Rossiiskaia gazeta (Ekonomicheskii soiuz) (January 18, 1996), 11; see also Oles M. Smolansky, "Turkish and Iranian Policies in Central Asia," in Central Asia, ed. Hafeez Malik (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1994), p. 286.
76. ITAR-TASS (December 28, 1997), in WNC:SOV (December 28, 1997).
77. Jamestown Monitor (October 2, 1997).
78. RFE/RL Newsline (October 7, 1997).
79. "Total's Iran Deal Sparks Row with U.S.," Oil and Gas Journal (October 6, 1997): 31-32.
80. New York Times (February 14, 1998), A1.
81. Paul Goble, "Three 'Freedom-Loving' States," RFE/RL Newsline (October 6, 1997), 7-9.
82. Xinhua [Beijing] (March 26, 1997), in WNC:SOV (March 26, 1997); Xinhua [Beijing], October 20, 1996.
83. U.S. Department of Energy, International Energy Outlook, 1997(Washington, DC, April 1997), pp. 16, 32.
84. New York Times (October 30, 1997).
85. U.S. Department of Energy, "Caspian Sea Region," Country Analysis Briefs (October 1997): 3; on the contribution of Asia's developing economies to future growth in energy demand, see Daniel Yergin, Dennis Eklof and Jefferson Edwards, "Fueling Asia's Recovery," Foreign Affairs 77, no. 2 (March/April 1998): 34-50.
86. U.S. Department of Energy, "Caspian Sea Region," Country Analysis Briefs (October 1997): 3; on the contribution of Asia's developing economies to future growth in energy demand, see Daniel Yergin, Dennis Eklof and Jefferson Edwards, "Fueling Asia's Recovery," Foreign Affairs 77, no. 2 (March/April 1998): 34-50.
87. Peter Ferdinand, ed., The States of Central Asia and Their Neighbors (New York Council for Foreign Relations Press, Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1994), pp. 102-4; Ross H. Munro, "Central Asia and China," in Central Asia and the World, pp. 234-35.
88. Peter Ferdinand, ed., The States of Central Asia and Their Neighbors (New York Council for Foreign Relations Press, Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1994), pp. 102-4; Ross H. Munro, "Central Asia and China," in Central Asia and the World, pp. 234-35.
89. Ebel, Energy Choices, p. 137; Geoffrey Kemp and Robert E. Harkavy, Strategic Geography and the Changing Middle East (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 1997), p. 151.
90. Ebel, Energy Choices, p. 137; Geoffrey Kemp and Robert E. Harkavy, Strategic Geography and the Changing Middle East (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 1997), p. 151.
91. ITAR-TASS (September 24, 1997), in WNC:SOV (September 24, 1997).
92. Interfax Oil, Gas & Coal Report (January 6, 1998), in WNC:SOV (January 7, 1998).
93. Delovoi mir, no. 165 (October 24-27, 1997): 1, 3, in WNC:SOV (October 24, 1997), 94.