'A (more) defensive strategy': The reconceptualisation of Soviet conventional strategy in the 1980s

Europe - Asia Studies

Volumn 50, Issue 2, 1998, Pages 205-239

  Snel, Gerard ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DEFENCE POLICY; FOREIGN POLICY; GEOPOLITICS; POLITICAL HISTORY;

USSR;

EID: 0031823411     PISSN: 09668136     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/09668139808412533     Document Type: Review

References (226)

1. See for example William E. Odom, 'Soviet Military Doctrine', Foreign Affairs, 67, 2, Winter 1988/89, pp. 114-134; S. P. Andragna, 'A New Soviet Military Doctrine and Strategy?', Orbis, 33, 2, Spring 1989, pp. 165-179; Daniel Gouré, 'A New Soviet National Security Policy for the 21st Century', Strategic Review, 17, 4, Fall 1989, pp. 36-46; Paula J. Dobriansky & David B. Rivkin Jr, 'Does the Soviet Military Oppose Perestroika?', Orbis, 35, 2, Spring 1991, pp. 163-178, and Marian Leighton & Robert Rudney, 'Towards a Soviet-German Security Partnership?', Orbis, 35, 3, Summer 1991, pp. 377-393.
2. See for example William E. Odom, 'Soviet Military Doctrine', Foreign Affairs, 67, 2, Winter 1988/89, pp. 114-134; S. P. Andragna, 'A New Soviet Military Doctrine and Strategy?', Orbis, 33, 2, Spring 1989, pp. 165-179; Daniel Gouré, 'A New Soviet National Security Policy for the 21st Century', Strategic Review, 17, 4, Fall 1989, pp. 36-46; Paula J. Dobriansky & David B. Rivkin Jr, 'Does the Soviet Military Oppose Perestroika?', Orbis, 35, 2, Spring 1991, pp. 163-178, and Marian Leighton & Robert Rudney, 'Towards a Soviet-German Security Partnership?', Orbis, 35, 3, Summer 1991, pp. 377-393.
3. See for example William E. Odom, 'Soviet Military Doctrine', Foreign Affairs, 67, 2, Winter 1988/89, pp. 114-134; S. P. Andragna, 'A New Soviet Military Doctrine and Strategy?', Orbis, 33, 2, Spring 1989, pp. 165-179; Daniel Gouré, 'A New Soviet National Security Policy for the 21st Century', Strategic Review, 17, 4, Fall 1989, pp. 36-46; Paula J. Dobriansky & David B. Rivkin Jr, 'Does the Soviet Military Oppose Perestroika?', Orbis, 35, 2, Spring 1991, pp. 163-178, and Marian Leighton & Robert Rudney, 'Towards a Soviet-German Security Partnership?', Orbis, 35, 3, Summer 1991, pp. 377-393.
4. See for example William E. Odom, 'Soviet Military Doctrine', Foreign Affairs, 67, 2, Winter 1988/89, pp. 114-134; S. P. Andragna, 'A New Soviet Military Doctrine and Strategy?', Orbis, 33, 2, Spring 1989, pp. 165-179; Daniel Gouré, 'A New Soviet National Security Policy for the 21st Century', Strategic Review, 17, 4, Fall 1989, pp. 36-46; Paula J. Dobriansky & David B. Rivkin Jr, 'Does the Soviet Military Oppose Perestroika?', Orbis, 35, 2, Spring 1991, pp. 163-178, and Marian Leighton & Robert Rudney, 'Towards a Soviet-German Security Partnership?', Orbis, 35, 3, Summer 1991, pp. 377-393.
5. See for example William E. Odom, 'Soviet Military Doctrine', Foreign Affairs, 67, 2, Winter 1988/89, pp. 114-134; S. P. Andragna, 'A New Soviet Military Doctrine and Strategy?', Orbis, 33, 2, Spring 1989, pp. 165-179; Daniel Gouré, 'A New Soviet National Security Policy for the 21st Century', Strategic Review, 17, 4, Fall 1989, pp. 36-46; Paula J. Dobriansky & David B. Rivkin Jr, 'Does the Soviet Military Oppose Perestroika?', Orbis, 35, 2, Spring 1991, pp. 163-178, and Marian Leighton & Robert Rudney, 'Towards a Soviet-German Security Partnership?', Orbis, 35, 3, Summer 1991, pp. 377-393.
6. See Robert Legvold, 'Soviet Learning in the 1980s', in George W. Breslauer & Philip E. Tetlock (eds), Learning in U.S. and Soviet Foreign Policy (Boulder, Westview Press, 1991), pp. 684-732; Douglas W. Blum, 'The Soviet Foreign Policy Belief System: Beliefs, Politics, and Foreign Policy Outcomes', International Studies Quarterly, 37, 1993, pp. 373-394; and less explicitly, R. Craig Nation, Black Earth, Red Star: A History of Soviet Security Policy, 1917-1991 (Ithaca, Cornell University Press, 1992). On the change in military thought, see G. P. Armstrong, 'Reasonable Sufficiency: The New Soviet Military Doctrine', Canadian Defence Quarterly, 19, 2, October 1989, pp. 22-26; Raymond L. Garthoff, Deterrence and the Revolution in Soviet Military Doctrine (Washington, DC, Brookings Institution, 1990); and Michael MccGwire, Perestroika and Soviet National Security (Washington, DC, Brookings Institution, 1991).
7. See Robert Legvold, 'Soviet Learning in the 1980s', in George W. Breslauer & Philip E. Tetlock (eds), Learning in U.S. and Soviet Foreign Policy (Boulder, Westview Press, 1991), pp. 684-732; Douglas W. Blum, 'The Soviet Foreign Policy Belief System: Beliefs, Politics, and Foreign Policy Outcomes', International Studies Quarterly, 37, 1993, pp. 373-394; and less explicitly, R. Craig Nation, Black Earth, Red Star: A History of Soviet Security Policy, 1917-1991 (Ithaca, Cornell University Press, 1992). On the change in military thought, see G. P. Armstrong, 'Reasonable Sufficiency: The New Soviet Military Doctrine', Canadian Defence Quarterly, 19, 2, October 1989, pp. 22-26; Raymond L. Garthoff, Deterrence and the Revolution in Soviet Military Doctrine (Washington, DC, Brookings Institution, 1990); and Michael MccGwire, Perestroika and Soviet National Security (Washington, DC, Brookings Institution, 1991).
8. See Robert Legvold, 'Soviet Learning in the 1980s', in George W. Breslauer & Philip E. Tetlock (eds), Learning in U.S. and Soviet Foreign Policy (Boulder, Westview Press, 1991), pp. 684-732; Douglas W. Blum, 'The Soviet Foreign Policy Belief System: Beliefs, Politics, and Foreign Policy Outcomes', International Studies Quarterly, 37, 1993, pp. 373-394; and less explicitly, R. Craig Nation, Black Earth, Red Star: A History of Soviet Security Policy, 1917-1991 (Ithaca, Cornell University Press, 1992). On the change in military thought, see G. P. Armstrong, 'Reasonable Sufficiency: The New Soviet Military Doctrine', Canadian Defence Quarterly, 19, 2, October 1989, pp. 22-26; Raymond L. Garthoff, Deterrence and the Revolution in Soviet Military Doctrine (Washington, DC, Brookings Institution, 1990); and Michael MccGwire, Perestroika and Soviet National Security (Washington, DC, Brookings Institution, 1991).
9. See Robert Legvold, 'Soviet Learning in the 1980s', in George W. Breslauer & Philip E. Tetlock (eds), Learning in U.S. and Soviet Foreign Policy (Boulder, Westview Press, 1991), pp. 684-732; Douglas W. Blum, 'The Soviet Foreign Policy Belief System: Beliefs, Politics, and Foreign Policy Outcomes', International Studies Quarterly, 37, 1993, pp. 373-394; and less explicitly, R. Craig Nation, Black Earth, Red Star: A History of Soviet Security Policy, 1917-1991 (Ithaca, Cornell University Press, 1992). On the change in military thought, see G. P. Armstrong, 'Reasonable Sufficiency: The New Soviet Military Doctrine', Canadian Defence Quarterly, 19, 2, October 1989, pp. 22-26; Raymond L. Garthoff, Deterrence and the Revolution in Soviet Military Doctrine (Washington, DC, Brookings Institution, 1990); and Michael MccGwire, Perestroika and Soviet National Security (Washington, DC, Brookings Institution, 1991).
10. See Robert Legvold, 'Soviet Learning in the 1980s', in George W. Breslauer & Philip E. Tetlock (eds), Learning in U.S. and Soviet Foreign Policy (Boulder, Westview Press, 1991), pp. 684-732; Douglas W. Blum, 'The Soviet Foreign Policy Belief System: Beliefs, Politics, and Foreign Policy Outcomes', International Studies Quarterly, 37, 1993, pp. 373-394; and less explicitly, R. Craig Nation, Black Earth, Red Star: A History of Soviet Security Policy, 1917-1991 (Ithaca, Cornell University Press, 1992). On the change in military thought, see G. P. Armstrong, 'Reasonable Sufficiency: The New Soviet Military Doctrine', Canadian Defence Quarterly, 19, 2, October 1989, pp. 22-26; Raymond L. Garthoff, Deterrence and the Revolution in Soviet Military Doctrine (Washington, DC, Brookings Institution, 1990); and Michael MccGwire, Perestroika and Soviet National Security (Washington, DC, Brookings Institution, 1991).
11. See Robert Legvold, 'Soviet Learning in the 1980s', in George W. Breslauer & Philip E. Tetlock (eds), Learning in U.S. and Soviet Foreign Policy (Boulder, Westview Press, 1991), pp. 684-732; Douglas W. Blum, 'The Soviet Foreign Policy Belief System: Beliefs, Politics, and Foreign Policy Outcomes', International Studies Quarterly, 37, 1993, pp. 373-394; and less explicitly, R. Craig Nation, Black Earth, Red Star: A History of Soviet Security Policy, 1917-1991 (Ithaca, Cornell University Press, 1992). On the change in military thought, see G. P. Armstrong, 'Reasonable Sufficiency: The New Soviet Military Doctrine', Canadian Defence Quarterly, 19, 2, October 1989, pp. 22-26; Raymond L. Garthoff, Deterrence and the Revolution in Soviet Military Doctrine (Washington, DC, Brookings Institution, 1990); and Michael MccGwire, Perestroika and Soviet National Security (Washington, DC, Brookings Institution, 1991).
12. See Jack Snyder, 'The Gorbachev Revolution: A Waning of Soviet Expansionism?', International Security, 12, 3, Winter 1987/88, pp. 93-131; Jack Snyder, Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics and International Ambition (Ithaca, Cornell University Press, 1991), in particular chapter 6: and Richard D. Anderson Jr, 'Why Competitive Politics Inhibits Learning in Soviet Foreign Policy', in Breslauer & Tetlock (eds), Learning in U.S. and Soviet Foreign Policy, pp. 22-36.
13. See Jack Snyder, 'The Gorbachev Revolution: A Waning of Soviet Expansionism?', International Security, 12, 3, Winter 1987/88, pp. 93-131; Jack Snyder, Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics and International Ambition (Ithaca, Cornell University Press, 1991), in particular chapter 6: and Richard D. Anderson Jr, 'Why Competitive Politics Inhibits Learning in Soviet Foreign Policy', in Breslauer & Tetlock (eds), Learning in U.S. and Soviet Foreign Policy, pp. 22-36.
14. See Jack Snyder, 'The Gorbachev Revolution: A Waning of Soviet Expansionism?', International Security, 12, 3, Winter 1987/88, pp. 93-131; Jack Snyder, Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics and International Ambition (Ithaca, Cornell University Press, 1991), in particular chapter 6: and Richard D. Anderson Jr, 'Why Competitive Politics Inhibits Learning in Soviet Foreign Policy', in Breslauer & Tetlock (eds), Learning in U.S. and Soviet Foreign Policy, pp. 22-36.
15. Such explanations have become rather popular after the demise of the Soviet Union, which with hindsight is seen as inevitable.
16. Daniel Deudney & G. John Ikenberry, 'The International Sources of Soviet Change', International Security, 16, 3, Winter 1991/92, pp. 74-118, argue that fundamental changes in the international environment strongly affected the odds of various Soviet policy options, but recognise that these changes, which occurred long before 1985, 'constitute constraints and opportunities that must be perceived and acted upon' (p. 116).
17. See John W. Kingdon, Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies (Glenview, Scott, Foresman and Company, 1984), pp. 122-151.
18. See Ernst B. Haas, 'Collective Learning: Some Theoretical Speculations', in Breslauer & Tetlock (eds), Learning in U.S. and Soviet Foreign Policy, pp. 62-99, in particular pp. 66-69.
19. Kingdon, Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies, pp. 173-204; for an application of his approach for Soviet policy, see Jeff Checkel, 'Ideas, Institutions, and the Gorbachev Foreign Policy Revolution', World Politics, 45, 2, January 1993, pp. 271-300; and Matthew Evangelista, 'The Paradox of State Strength: Transnational Relations, Domestic Structures, and Security Policy in Russia and the Soviet Union', International Organisation, 49, 1, Winter 1995, pp. 1-38.
20. Kingdon, Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies, pp. 173-204; for an application of his approach for Soviet policy, see Jeff Checkel, 'Ideas, Institutions, and the Gorbachev Foreign Policy Revolution', World Politics, 45, 2, January 1993, pp. 271-300; and Matthew Evangelista, 'The Paradox of State Strength: Transnational Relations, Domestic Structures, and Security Policy in Russia and the Soviet Union', International Organisation, 49, 1, Winter 1995, pp. 1-38.
21. Kingdon, Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies, pp. 173-204; for an application of his approach for Soviet policy, see Jeff Checkel, 'Ideas, Institutions, and the Gorbachev Foreign Policy Revolution', World Politics, 45, 2, January 1993, pp. 271-300; and Matthew Evangelista, 'The Paradox of State Strength: Transnational Relations, Domestic Structures, and Security Policy in Russia and the Soviet Union', International Organisation, 49, 1, Winter 1995, pp. 1-38.
22. See Judith Goldstein, Ideas, Interests, and American Trade Policy (Ithaca, Cornell University Press, 1993), p. 15, and for the Soviet Union, Checkel, 'Ideas, Institutions, and the Gorbachev Foreign Policy Revolution'.
23. See Judith Goldstein, Ideas, Interests, and American Trade Policy (Ithaca, Cornell University Press, 1993), p. 15, and for the Soviet Union, Checkel, 'Ideas, Institutions, and the Gorbachev Foreign Policy Revolution'.
24. Kathryn Sikkink, Ideas and Institutions: Developmentalism in Brazil and Argentina (Ithaca, Cornell University Press, 1991), p. 26.
25. Evangelista, 'The Paradox of State Strength'.
26. Ibid.
27. For the basic argument that institutional structure constrains policy choice, see Fritz W. Scharpf, 'Political Institutions, Decision Styles, and Policy Choices', in Roland M. Czada & Adrienne Windhoff-Héritier (eds), Political Choice: Institutions, Rules, and the Limits of Rationality (Frankfurt am Main, Campus, 1991), pp. 53-86, and Kathleen Thelen & Sven Steinmo, 'Historical Institutionalism in Comparative Polities', in Sven Steinmo, Kathleen Thelen & Frank Longstreth (eds), Structuring Politics: Historical Inslitutionalism in Comparative Analysis (Cambridge, MA, Cambridge University Press, 1992), pp. 1-32, especially pp. 6-7.
28. For the basic argument that institutional structure constrains policy choice, see Fritz W. Scharpf, 'Political Institutions, Decision Styles, and Policy Choices', in Roland M. Czada & Adrienne Windhoff-Héritier (eds), Political Choice: Institutions, Rules, and the Limits of Rationality (Frankfurt am Main, Campus, 1991), pp. 53-86, and Kathleen Thelen & Sven Steinmo, 'Historical Institutionalism in Comparative Polities', in Sven Steinmo, Kathleen Thelen & Frank Longstreth (eds), Structuring Politics: Historical Inslitutionalism in Comparative Analysis (Cambridge, MA, Cambridge University Press, 1992), pp. 1-32, especially pp. 6-7.
29. See Ronald J. Hill & Peter Frank, The Soviet Communist Party (Boston, Allen & Unwin, 1986, 3rd edn), pp. 74-75.
30. Franklyn Griffiths, 'A Tendency Analysis of Soviet Policy-Making', in H. Gordon Skilling & Franklyn Griffiths (eds). Interest Groups in Soviet Politics (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1971), pp. 335-379; and Franklyn Griffiths, 'The Sources of American Conduct: Soviet Perspectives and Their Policy Implications', International Security, 9, 2, Fall 1984, pp. 3-50.
31. Franklyn Griffiths, 'A Tendency Analysis of Soviet Policy-Making', in H. Gordon Skilling & Franklyn Griffiths (eds). Interest Groups in Soviet Politics (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1971), pp. 335-379; and Franklyn Griffiths, 'The Sources of American Conduct: Soviet Perspectives and Their Policy Implications', International Security, 9, 2, Fall 1984, pp. 3-50.
32. The term 'articulated belief system' is used here to differentiate it from an actor's genuine system of beliefs and convictions.
33. Paul A. Sabatier, 'Knowledge, Policy-oriented Learning, and Policy Change: An Advocacy Coalition Framework', Knowledge: Creation, Diffusion, Utilization, 8, 4, June 1987, pp. 649-692, especially p. 652.
34. See Sabatier, 'Knowledge, Policy-Oriented Learning, and Policy Change', On the similarities between the two concepts, see Gerard Snel, From the Atlantic to the Urals: The Reorientation of Soviet Military Strategy, 1981-1990 (Amsterdam, VU University Press, 1996), p. 43.
35. See Sabatier, 'Knowledge, Policy-Oriented Learning, and Policy Change', On the similarities between the two concepts, see Gerard Snel, From the Atlantic to the Urals: The Reorientation of Soviet Military Strategy, 1981-1990 (Amsterdam, VU University Press, 1996), p. 43.
36. According to Samuel P. Huntington, civil-military relations constitute 'the principal institutional component of military security policy'; see his The Soldier and the State: The Theory and Politics of Civil-Military Relations (Cambridge, MA' Belknap Press, 1967), p. 1.
37. See Huntington, The Soldier and the State, pp. 80-85; and for the Soviet case, Roman Kolkowicz, The Soviet Military and the Communist Party (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1967), and more recently, John W. R. Lepingwell, 'Soviet Civil-Military Relations and the August Coup', World Politics, 44, 4, July 1992, pp. 539-572, and Thomas M. Nichols, The Sacred Cause: Civil-Military Conflict over Soviet National Security, 1917-1992 (Ithaca, Cornell University Press, 1993).
38. See Huntington, The Soldier and the State, pp. 80-85; and for the Soviet case, Roman Kolkowicz, The Soviet Military and the Communist Party (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1967), and more recently, John W. R. Lepingwell, 'Soviet Civil-Military Relations and the August Coup', World Politics, 44, 4, July 1992, pp. 539-572, and Thomas M. Nichols, The Sacred Cause: Civil-Military Conflict over Soviet National Security, 1917-1992 (Ithaca, Cornell University Press, 1993).
39. See Huntington, The Soldier and the State, pp. 80-85; and for the Soviet case, Roman Kolkowicz, The Soviet Military and the Communist Party (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1967), and more recently, John W. R. Lepingwell, 'Soviet Civil-Military Relations and the August Coup', World Politics, 44, 4, July 1992, pp. 539-572, and Thomas M. Nichols, The Sacred Cause: Civil-Military Conflict over Soviet National Security, 1917-1992 (Ithaca, Cornell University Press, 1993).
40. See Huntington, The Soldier and the State, pp. 80-85; and for the Soviet case, Roman Kolkowicz, The Soviet Military and the Communist Party (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1967), and more recently, John W. R. Lepingwell, 'Soviet Civil-Military Relations and the August Coup', World Politics, 44, 4, July 1992, pp. 539-572, and Thomas M. Nichols, The Sacred Cause: Civil-Military Conflict over Soviet National Security, 1917-1992 (Ithaca, Cornell University Press, 1993).
41. See Timothy J. Colton, 'Perspectives on Civil-Military Relations in the Soviet Union', in Timothy J. Colton & Thane Gustafson (eds), Soldiers and the Soviet State: Civil-Military Relations from Brezhnev to Gorbachev (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1990), pp. 8-9. Colton's criticism on the ambiguity of the concept was unwittingly substantiated by two authors, of whom the first held that Colton's approach presumed objective control, while the second held that it presumed subjective control; compare Lepingwell, 'Soviet Civil-Military Relations and the August Coup', p. 542, with Nichols, The Sacred Cause, p. 28.
42. See Timothy J. Colton, 'Perspectives on Civil-Military Relations in the Soviet Union', in Timothy J. Colton & Thane Gustafson (eds), Soldiers and the Soviet State: Civil-Military Relations from Brezhnev to Gorbachev (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1990), pp. 8-9. Colton's criticism on the ambiguity of the concept was unwittingly substantiated by two authors, of whom the first held that Colton's approach presumed objective control, while the second held that it presumed subjective control; compare Lepingwell, 'Soviet Civil-Military Relations and the August Coup', p. 542, with Nichols, The Sacred Cause, p. 28.
43. See Timothy J. Colton, 'Perspectives on Civil-Military Relations in the Soviet Union', in Timothy J. Colton & Thane Gustafson (eds), Soldiers and the Soviet State: Civil-Military Relations from Brezhnev to Gorbachev (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1990), pp. 8-9. Colton's criticism on the ambiguity of the concept was unwittingly substantiated by two authors, of whom the first held that Colton's approach presumed objective control, while the second held that it presumed subjective control; compare Lepingwell, 'Soviet Civil-Military Relations and the August Coup', p. 542, with Nichols, The Sacred Cause, p. 28.
44. See Jay R. Galbraith, Designing Complex Organizations (Reading, Addison Wesley, 1973), and the use of this framework in C. Sieben, Beheersing van militaire macht: Een Studie naar enkele ontwikkelingen in de wapentechnologie, de structuurkenmerken van militaire organisaties en de aanpak van het beheersingsvraagstuk (PhD dissertation, VU University, Amsterdam, 1991), pp. 177-179.
45. See Jay R. Galbraith, Designing Complex Organizations (Reading, Addison Wesley, 1973), and the use of this framework in C. Sieben, Beheersing van militaire macht: Een Studie naar enkele ontwikkelingen in de wapentechnologie, de structuurkenmerken van militaire organisaties en de aanpak van het beheersingsvraagstuk (PhD dissertation, VU University, Amsterdam, 1991), pp. 177-179.
46. This alternative focus on military participation is inspired by Timothy J. Colton, Commissars, Commanders, and Civilian Authority: The Structure of Soviet Politics (Cambridge, MA, Harvard University Press, 1979).
47. See Condoleeza Rice, 'The Party, the Military, and Decision Authority in the Soviet Union', World Politics, 40, 1, October 1987, pp. 55-81; see also Colton, 'Perspectives on Civil-Military Relations in the Soviet Union', p. 7.
48. See Condoleeza Rice, 'The Party, the Military, and Decision Authority in the Soviet Union', World Politics, 40, 1, October 1987, pp. 55-81; see also Colton, 'Perspectives on Civil-Military Relations in the Soviet Union', p. 7.
49. This approach is dealt with in more detail in Snel, From the Atlantic to the Urals, pp. 47-56.
50. See Barry R. Posen, The Sources of Military Doctrine: France, Britain, and Germany between the World Wars (Ithaca, Cornell University Press, 1984); see also Jack Snyder, The Ideology of the Offensive: Militariy Decision Making and the Disasters of 1914 (Ithaca, Cornell University Press, 1984).
51. See Barry R. Posen, The Sources of Military Doctrine: France, Britain, and Germany between the World Wars (Ithaca, Cornell University Press, 1984); see also Jack Snyder, The Ideology of the Offensive: Militariy Decision Making and the Disasters of 1914 (Ithaca, Cornell University Press, 1984).
52. This approach is inspired by Alexander George's process-tracing procedure, in which one seeks to trace the role of an actor's beliefs in various stages of information processing and thus establish the way in which his beliefs influenced his policy behaviour: see Alexander L. George, 'The Causal Nexus Between Cognitive Beliefs and Decision-Making Behavior: The "Operational Code" Belief System', in Lawrence S. Falkowski (ed.), Psychological Models in International Politics (Boulder, Westview Press, 1979), pp. 95-124, especially pp. 105-113.
53. It is this openness to the influence of different factors that characterises George's process-tracing procedure; see for its application Bertjan Verbeek, 'Do Individual and Group Beliefs Matter? British Decision-Making During the 1956 Suez Crisis', Cooperation and Conflict, 39, 4, 1994, pp. 307-332.
54. A. Kokoshin & V. Larionov, 'Protivostoyanie sil obshchego naznacheniya v kontekste obespecheniya strategicheskoi stabil'nosti', Mirovaya Ekonomika i Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya, 1988, 6, pp. 23-31, and more extensively, Valentin Larionov & Andrei Kokoshin, Prevention of War: Doctrines, Concepts, Prospects (Moscow, Progress, 1991), pp. 122-134.
55. A. Kokoshin & V. Larionov, 'Protivostoyanie sil obshchego naznacheniya v kontekste obespecheniya strategicheskoi stabil'nosti', Mirovaya Ekonomika i Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya, 1988, 6, pp. 23-31, and more extensively, Valentin Larionov & Andrei Kokoshin, Prevention of War: Doctrines, Concepts, Prospects (Moscow, Progress, 1991), pp. 122-134.
56. See Snel, From the Atlantic to the Urals, pp. 41-47 and 261-264, which was inspired by Franklyn Griffiths's 'The Sources of American Conduct' and his 'Attempted Learning: Soviet Policy Toward the United States in the Brezhnev Era', in Breslauer & Tetlock (eds), Learning in U.S. and Soviet Foreign Policy, pp. 630-683.
57. See Snel, From the Atlantic to the Urals, pp. 41-47 and 261-264, which was inspired by Franklyn Griffiths's 'The Sources of American Conduct' and his 'Attempted Learning: Soviet Policy Toward the United States in the Brezhnev Era', in Breslauer & Tetlock (eds), Learning in U.S. and Soviet Foreign Policy, pp. 630-683.
58. This content analysis is done in Snel, From the Atlantic to the Urals, pp. 71-103.
59. See Rice, 'The Party, the Military, and Decision Authority in the Soviet Union', and Snel, From the Atlantic to the Urals, pp. 114-124.
60. See Rice, 'The Party, the Military, and Decision Authority in the Soviet Union', and Snel, From the Atlantic to the Urals, pp. 114-124.
61. See Stephen M. Meyer, 'Civilian and Military Influence in Managing the Arms Race in the U.S.S.R', in Robert J. Art, Vincent Davis & Samuel P. Huntington (eds), Reorganizing America's Defense: Leadership in War and Peace (Washington, DC, Pergamon-Brassey's, 1985), pp. 37-61, especially pp. 42-46.
62. Cited in V. Selivanov, 'Smelost' resheniya', Krasnaya zvezda, 8 April 1982, p. 2. Like this one, all quotes from Russian and German are translated by the present author, unless an English-language source is indicated.
63. See John G. Hines & Phillip A. Petersen, 'NATO and the Changing Soviet Concept of Control for Theater War', in Stephen J. Cimbala (ed.), The Soviet Challenge in the 1990s (New York, Praeger, 1989), pp. 65-120; and C. N. Donnelly, 'The Soviet Operational Manoeuvre Group: A New Challenge for NATO', International Defense Review, 15, 9, September 1982, pp. 1177-1186.
64. See John G. Hines & Phillip A. Petersen, 'NATO and the Changing Soviet Concept of Control for Theater War', in Stephen J. Cimbala (ed.), The Soviet Challenge in the 1990s (New York, Praeger, 1989), pp. 65-120; and C. N. Donnelly, 'The Soviet Operational Manoeuvre Group: A New Challenge for NATO', International Defense Review, 15, 9, September 1982, pp. 1177-1186.
65. See Stephen R. Covington, The Role of the Defence in Soviet Military Thinking: Operational-Tactical Defence-Strategic Defence, Soviet Studies Research Centre Report C64 (Sandhurst, Royal Military Academy, September 1987); and Stephen D. Shenfield, 'Soviet Historiography and the Operational Art: Historical Coverage of the Great Patriotic War by Period as an Indicator of the Orientation of Soviet Military Art, 1959-88', The Journal of Soviet Military Studies, 2, 3, September 1989, pp. 346-360.
66. See Stephen R. Covington, The Role of the Defence in Soviet Military Thinking: Operational-Tactical Defence-Strategic Defence, Soviet Studies Research Centre Report C64 (Sandhurst, Royal Military Academy, September 1987); and Stephen D. Shenfield, 'Soviet Historiography and the Operational Art: Historical Coverage of the Great Patriotic War by Period as an Indicator of the Orientation of Soviet Military Art, 1959-88', The Journal of Soviet Military Studies, 2, 3, September 1989, pp. 346-360.
67. See for example Covington, The Role of the Defence in Soviet Military Thinking, and Stephen M. Meyer, 'The Sources and Prospects of Gorbachev's New Political Thinking on Security', International Security, 13, 2, Fall 1988, pp. 153-154.
68. See for example Covington, The Role of the Defence in Soviet Military Thinking, and Stephen M. Meyer, 'The Sources and Prospects of Gorbachev's New Political Thinking on Security', International Security, 13, 2, Fall 1988, pp. 153-154.
69. See Kimberly Marten Zisk, Engaging the Enemy: Organiszation Theory and Soviet Military Innovation, 1955-1991 (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1993), pp. 138-151, and Snel, From the Atlantic to the Urals, pp. 154-160. Early articles devoted to defensive operations include V. V. Turchenko, 'Tendentsii razvitiya teorii i praktiki strategicheskoi oborony', Voennaya mysl', 1979, 8, pp. 13-24; V. V. Turchenko 'O strategicheskoi oborone', Voennava mysl', 1982, 7, pp. 16-27; and M. M. Kozlov, 'Organizatsiya i vedenie strategicheskoi oborony po opytu Velikoi Otechestvennoi voiny', Voenno-istoricheskii zhurnal, 1980, 12, pp. 9-17.
70. See Kimberly Marten Zisk, Engaging the Enemy: Organiszation Theory and Soviet Military Innovation, 1955-1991 (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1993), pp. 138-151, and Snel, From the Atlantic to the Urals, pp. 154-160. Early articles devoted to defensive operations include V. V. Turchenko, 'Tendentsii razvitiya teorii i praktiki strategicheskoi oborony', Voennaya mysl', 1979, 8, pp. 13-24; V. V. Turchenko 'O strategicheskoi oborone', Voennava mysl', 1982, 7, pp. 16-27; and M. M. Kozlov, 'Organizatsiya i vedenie strategicheskoi oborony po opytu Velikoi Otechestvennoi voiny', Voenno-istoricheskii zhurnal, 1980, 12, pp. 9-17.
71. See Kimberly Marten Zisk, Engaging the Enemy: Organiszation Theory and Soviet Military Innovation, 1955-1991 (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1993), pp. 138-151, and Snel, From the Atlantic to the Urals, pp. 154-160. Early articles devoted to defensive operations include V. V. Turchenko, 'Tendentsii razvitiya teorii i praktiki strategicheskoi oborony', Voennaya mysl', 1979, 8, pp. 13-24; V. V. Turchenko 'O strategicheskoi oborone', Voennava mysl', 1982, 7, pp. 16-27; and M. M. Kozlov, 'Organizatsiya i vedenie strategicheskoi oborony po opytu Velikoi Otechestvennoi voiny', Voenno-istoricheskii zhurnal, 1980, 12, pp. 9-17.
72. See Kimberly Marten Zisk, Engaging the Enemy: Organiszation Theory and Soviet Military Innovation, 1955-1991 (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1993), pp. 138-151, and Snel, From the Atlantic to the Urals, pp. 154-160. Early articles devoted to defensive operations include V. V. Turchenko, 'Tendentsii razvitiya teorii i praktiki strategicheskoi oborony', Voennaya mysl', 1979, 8, pp. 13-24; V. V. Turchenko 'O strategicheskoi oborone', Voennava mysl', 1982, 7, pp. 16-27; and M. M. Kozlov, 'Organizatsiya i vedenie strategicheskoi oborony po opytu Velikoi Otechestvennoi voiny', Voenno-istoricheskii zhurnal, 1980, 12, pp. 9-17.
73. See Kimberly Marten Zisk, Engaging the Enemy: Organiszation Theory and Soviet Military Innovation, 1955-1991 (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1993), pp. 138-151, and Snel, From the Atlantic to the Urals, pp. 154-160. Early articles devoted to defensive operations include V. V. Turchenko, 'Tendentsii razvitiya teorii i praktiki strategicheskoi oborony', Voennaya mysl', 1979, 8, pp. 13-24; V. V. Turchenko 'O strategicheskoi oborone', Voennava mysl', 1982, 7, pp. 16-27; and M. M. Kozlov, 'Organizatsiya i vedenie strategicheskoi oborony po opytu Velikoi Otechestvennoi voiny', Voenno-istoricheskii zhurnal, 1980, 12, pp. 9-17.
74. For the second reaction, see N. V. Ogarkov, 'Zashchita sotsializma: opyt istorii i sovremennost', Krasnaya zvezda, 9 May 1984, pp. 2-3, and Mary C. FitzGerald, 'Defensive Defense: Marshal Ogarkov's view', International Defense Review, 22, 9, September 1989, p. 1146; for the third one, I. N. Vorob'ev, 'Sootnoshenie i vzaimosvyaz' nastupleniya i oborony', Voennaya mysl', 1980, 4, pp. 49-59.
75. For the second reaction, see N. V. Ogarkov, 'Zashchita sotsializma: opyt istorii i sovremennost', Krasnaya zvezda, 9 May 1984, pp. 2-3, and Mary C. FitzGerald, 'Defensive Defense: Marshal Ogarkov's view', International Defense Review, 22, 9, September 1989, p. 1146; for the third one, I. N. Vorob'ev, 'Sootnoshenie i vzaimosvyaz' nastupleniya i oborony', Voennaya mysl', 1980, 4, pp. 49-59.
76. For the second reaction, see N. V. Ogarkov, 'Zashchita sotsializma: opyt istorii i sovremennost', Krasnaya zvezda, 9 May 1984, pp. 2-3, and Mary C. FitzGerald, 'Defensive Defense: Marshal Ogarkov's view', International Defense Review, 22, 9, September 1989, p. 1146; for the third one, I. N. Vorob'ev, 'Sootnoshenie i vzaimosvyaz' nastupleniya i oborony', Voennaya mysl', 1980, 4, pp. 49-59.
77. MccGwire, Perestroika and Soviet National Security.
78. Quoted in ibid., p. 168. Note that even in the heyday of offensive thinking Marshall Ogarkov wrote in the Sovetskava Voennaya Entsiklopediya (Moscow, Voenizdat, 1979, Volume 7, p. 563) that Soviet military strategy had an 'exclusively defensive direction'.
79. Quoted in ibid., p. 168. Note that even in the heyday of offensive thinking Marshall Ogarkov wrote in the Sovetskava Voennaya Entsiklopediya (Moscow, Voenizdat, 1979, Volume 7, p. 563) that Soviet military strategy had an 'exclusively defensive direction'.
80. Turchenko, 'O strategicheskoi oborone', p. 17.
81. See also Kozlov, 'Organizatsiya i vedenie strategicheskoi oborony po opytu Velikoi Otechestvennoi voiny', and M. Gareev, 'Ob opyte boevoi podgotovki voisk', Voenno-istoricheskii zhurnal, 1983, 4, pp. 11-20.
82. See also Kozlov, 'Organizatsiya i vedenie strategicheskoi oborony po opytu Velikoi Otechestvennoi voiny', and M. Gareev, 'Ob opyte boevoi podgotovki voisk', Voenno-istoricheskii zhurnal, 1983, 4, pp. 11-20.
83. According to a high-level General Staff officer (interviews with the author, Moscow, 25 October, 1991 and 27 March 1992), the Centre was established at the initiative of Gareev, one of the advocates of more attention to defensive operations.
84. Contrary to Western speculations, it was neither Ogarkov's think tank (see Rose E. Gottemoeller, 'Intramilitary Conflict in the Soviet Armed Forces', in Bruce Parrott (ed.), The Dynamics of Soviet Defense Policy (Washington, DC, The Wilson Center Press, 1990), pp. 84-85) nor a military-civilian nomenklatura that had to develop the defensive strategy (see MccGwire, Perestroika and Soviet National Security, p. 168).
85. Contrary to Western speculations, it was neither Ogarkov's think tank (see Rose E. Gottemoeller, 'Intramilitary Conflict in the Soviet Armed Forces', in Bruce Parrott (ed.), The Dynamics of Soviet Defense Policy (Washington, DC, The Wilson Center Press, 1990), pp. 84-85) nor a military-civilian nomenklatura that had to develop the defensive strategy (see MccGwire, Perestroika and Soviet National Security, p. 168).
86. See P. M. E. Volten, Brezhnev's 'Peace Program': Success or Failure? Soviet Domestic Political Process and Power (Amsterdam, PhD dissertation, VU University, Amsterdam, 1981), pp. 274-315.
87. According to one of them, mezhdunarodniki tended to overestimate the influence of these progressive groups; interview with Sergei Karaganov, Groningen, 3 April 1991.
88. See the report of the Independent Commission on Disarmament and Security Issues (as the Palme Commission was formally named), Common Security: A Programme for Disarmament (London, Pan Books, 1982). That the concept received attention in policy-making circles can be seen from the book by academic researcher Anatolii Gromyko and Foreign Ministry official Vladimir Lomeiko, Novoe myshlenie v yadernyi vek (Moscow, Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 1984), and from an article by Foreign Ministry Department Head V. Petrovsky, 'General Security in the Context of the Nuclear Age', International Affairs, 1984, 9, pp. 34-42.
89. See the report of the Independent Commission on Disarmament and Security Issues (as the Palme Commission was formally named), Common Security: A Programme for Disarmament (London, Pan Books, 1982). That the concept received attention in policy-making circles can be seen from the book by academic researcher Anatolii Gromyko and Foreign Ministry official Vladimir Lomeiko, Novoe myshlenie v yadernyi vek (Moscow, Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 1984), and from an article by Foreign Ministry Department Head V. Petrovsky, 'General Security in the Context of the Nuclear Age', International Affairs, 1984, 9, pp. 34-42.
90. See the report of the Independent Commission on Disarmament and Security Issues (as the Palme Commission was formally named), Common Security: A Programme for Disarmament (London, Pan Books, 1982). That the concept received attention in policy-making circles can be seen from the book by academic researcher Anatolii Gromyko and Foreign Ministry official Vladimir Lomeiko, Novoe myshlenie v yadernyi vek (Moscow, Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 1984), and from an article by Foreign Ministry Department Head V. Petrovsky, 'General Security in the Context of the Nuclear Age', International Affairs, 1984, 9, pp. 34-42.
91. According to the Committee's scientific secretary Sergei Oznobyshchev (interview with the author, Moscow, 19 October 1993), the Committee's chairman Evgenii Velikhov was science adviser to Gorbachev; see also Hedrick Smith, The New Russians (New York, Random House, 1990). pp. 72-73, and Rice, 'The Party, the Military, and Decision Authority in the Soviet Union', p. 75. On the Committee's influence on Soviet strategic defence policy, see Evangelista, 'The Paradox of State Strength'.
92. According to the Committee's scientific secretary Sergei Oznobyshchev (interview with the author, Moscow, 19 October 1993), the Committee's chairman Evgenii Velikhov was science adviser to Gorbachev; see also Hedrick Smith, The New Russians (New York, Random House, 1990). pp. 72-73, and Rice, 'The Party, the Military, and Decision Authority in the Soviet Union', p. 75. On the Committee's influence on Soviet strategic defence policy, see Evangelista, 'The Paradox of State Strength'.
93. According to the Committee's scientific secretary Sergei Oznobyshchev (interview with the author, Moscow, 19 October 1993), the Committee's chairman Evgenii Velikhov was science adviser to Gorbachev; see also Hedrick Smith, The New Russians (New York, Random House, 1990). pp. 72-73, and Rice, 'The Party, the Military, and Decision Authority in the Soviet Union', p. 75. On the Committee's influence on Soviet strategic defence policy, see Evangelista, 'The Paradox of State Strength'.
94. Important were Pugwash conferences and working groups, meetings at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), contacts with the German Social-Democratic Party (SPD), and the Dartmouth meetings; see also Georgi Arbatov, The System: An Insider's Life in Soviet Politics (New York, Times Books, 1993), pp. 301-304.
95. Proektor was a former professor at the Frunze Military Academy who since his retirement in 1977 was based at IMEMO; Kokoshin was promoted to Deputy Director of ISKAN in 1984.
96. D. M. Proektor, 'European Security: The Problems of the 1980s', in V. S. Shaposhnikov (ed.), Problems of Common Security (Moscow, Progress, 1984), pp. 187-208, quotes from p. 193.
97. E.g. at a Pugwash meeting on conventional forces in Europe in March 1985; based on an interview with Proektor, 19 March 1992, Moscow, and Pugwash materials.
98. Interview by the author and Dr M. ter Borg with Andrei Kokoshin, Moscow, 4 June 1990.
99. E. Velikhov & A. Kokoshin, 'Yadernoe oruzhie i dilemmy mezhdunarodnoi bezopasnosti', Mirovaya Ekonomika i Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya, 1985, 4, p. 38; although published in April 1985, that is, after Gorbachev became General Secretary, the article was written beforehand: it ended with a quotation from Gorbachev's predecessor K. U. Chernenko.
100. E.g. Lev Mendelevich, Soviet ambassador in Denmark, reportedly assembled material on non-offensive defence; see Leighton & Rudney, 'Towards a Soviet-German Security Partnership?', p. 385.
101. S. Sokolov, 'Velikaya pobeda: itogi i uroki', Kommunist, 1985, 6, pp. 55-69, especially pp. 67-68.
102. 'O voennoi doktrine gosudarstv-uchastnikov Varshavskogo Dogovora', Pravda, 30 May 1987, pp. 1-2.
103. Ibid.
104. E.g. Gerhard Wettig, ' "New Thinking" on Security and East-West Relations', Problems of Communism, 37, 2, March/April 1988, pp. 1-14, especially pp. 4-6.
105. See MccGwire, Perestroika and Soviet National Security, pp. 313-317; and emphasising the doctrine as one element in a gradual shift, Garthoff, Deterrence and the Revolution in Soviet Military Doctrine, pp. 157-174.
106. See MccGwire, Perestroika and Soviet National Security, pp. 313-317; and emphasising the doctrine as one element in a gradual shift, Garthoff, Deterrence and the Revolution in Soviet Military Doctrine, pp. 157-174.
107. S. F. Akhromeev & G. M. Kornienko, Glazami marshala i diplomata: Kriticheskii vzglyad na vneshnyuyu politiku SSSR do i posle 1985 goda (Moscow, Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 1992), pp. 125-126.
108. In addition, the offensive response option was weakened by the demotion of its most vocal proponent, Marshal Ogarkov, On the reasons for his ouster, see Jeremy R. Azrael, The Soviet Civilian Leadership and the Military High Command, 1979-1986, Project AIR FORCE report R-3521-AF (Santa Monica, Rand, June 1987), and Brian A. Davenport, 'The Ogarkov Ouster: The Development of Soviet Military Doctrine and Civil/Military Relations in the 1980s', The Journal of Strategic Studies, 14, 2, June 1991, pp. 129-147.
109. In addition, the offensive response option was weakened by the demotion of its most vocal proponent, Marshal Ogarkov, On the reasons for his ouster, see Jeremy R. Azrael, The Soviet Civilian Leadership and the Military High Command, 1979-1986, Project AIR FORCE report R-3521-AF (Santa Monica, Rand, June 1987), and Brian A. Davenport, 'The Ogarkov Ouster: The Development of Soviet Military Doctrine and Civil/Military Relations in the 1980s', The Journal of Strategic Studies, 14, 2, June 1991, pp. 129-147.
110. D. T. Yazov, 'K voprosu ob ustoichivosti i uktivnosti oborony', Voennaya mysl', 1987, 2, pp. 23-35, especially pp. 33-34.
111. See the quotes from East German documents in Hans-Henning Schröder, Sowjetische Rüstungs-und Sicherheitspolitik zwischen 'Stagnation' und 'Perestrojka': Eine Untersuchung der Wechselbeziehung von auswärtiger Politik und innerem Wandel in der UdSSR (1979-1991) (Baden-Baden, Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, 1995), pp. 138-139, The East Germans hosted the Warsaw Treaty session in Berlin.
112. Cited in Beatrice Heuser, 'Warsaw Pact Military Doctrines in the 1970s and 1980s: Findings in the East German Archives', Comparative Strategy, 12, 4, October-December 1993, pp. 437-457, especially p. 449.
113. The following conclusions are based upon three important texts: an article by A. A. Kokoshin. ' "Plan Rodzhersa", al'ternativnye kontseptsii oborony i bezopasnost' v Evrope', SShA-ekonomika, politika, ideologiya, 1985, 9, pp. 3-14; an internal IMEMO 'scientific-analytical survey' by A. A. Kalinin & A. Yu. Koshmarov, Sovremennye neyadernye voornzheniya, al'ternativnaya oborona (debaty i kontseptsii): Nauchno-analiticheskii obzor (Moscow, Akademiya Nauk SSSR & Institut Nauchnoi Informatsii po Obshchestvennym Naukam, 1986); and the unsigned chapter, 'Reduction of Armed Forces and Conventional Armaments', in E. Primakov (ed.), Disarmament and Security: 1986 Yearbook, Volume I (Moscow, Novosti, 1987), pp. 197-224.
114. The following conclusions are based upon three important texts: an article by A. A. Kokoshin. ' "Plan Rodzhersa", al'ternativnye kontseptsii oborony i bezopasnost' v Evrope', SShA-ekonomika, politika, ideologiya, 1985, 9, pp. 3-14; an internal IMEMO 'scientific-analytical survey' by A. A. Kalinin & A. Yu. Koshmarov, Sovremennye neyadernye voornzheniya, al'ternativnaya oborona (debaty i kontseptsii): Nauchno-analiticheskii obzor (Moscow, Akademiya Nauk SSSR & Institut Nauchnoi Informatsii po Obshchestvennym Naukam, 1986); and the unsigned chapter, 'Reduction of Armed Forces and Conventional Armaments', in E. Primakov (ed.), Disarmament and Security: 1986 Yearbook, Volume I (Moscow, Novosti, 1987), pp. 197-224.
115. The following conclusions are based upon three important texts: an article by A. A. Kokoshin. ' "Plan Rodzhersa", al'ternativnye kontseptsii oborony i bezopasnost' v Evrope', SShA-ekonomika, politika, ideologiya, 1985, 9, pp. 3-14; an internal IMEMO 'scientific-analytical survey' by A. A. Kalinin & A. Yu. Koshmarov, Sovremennye neyadernye voornzheniya, al'ternativnaya oborona (debaty i kontseptsii): Nauchno-analiticheskii obzor (Moscow, Akademiya Nauk SSSR & Institut Nauchnoi Informatsii po Obshchestvennym Naukam, 1986); and the unsigned chapter, 'Reduction of Armed Forces and Conventional Armaments', in E. Primakov (ed.), Disarmament and Security: 1986 Yearbook, Volume I (Moscow, Novosti, 1987), pp. 197-224.
116. This debate is dealt with in Snel, From the Atlantic to the Urals, pp. 172-175.
117. Yu. Ya. Kirshin, V. M. Popov & R. A. Savushkin, Politicheskoe soderzhanie sovremennykh voin (Moscow, Nauka, 1987), pp. 303-304.
118. M. S. Gorbachev, Politicheskii doklad Tsentral'nogo Komiteta KPSS XXVII s"ezdu Kommunisticheskoi Partii Sovetskogo Soyuza (Moscow, Politizdat, 1986), p. 85.
119. 'Obrashchenie gosudarstv-uchastnikov Varshavskogo Dogovora k gosudarstvam-chlenam NATO, vsem evropeiskim stranam s programmoi sokrashcheniya vooruzhennykh sil i obychnykh vooruzhenii v Evrope', Pravda, 12 June 1986, p. 1.
120. To the knowledge of the present author, the first reference was made by the Head of the Voroshilov Academy, M. M. Kozlov, 'Sokrashchenie voenno-strategicheskogo pariteta-ser'eznyi faktor obespecheniya mira i mezhdunarodnoi bezopasnosti', Voennaya mysl', 1986, 12, pp. 3-13, see p. 1.
121. M. S. Gorbachev, Za bez"yadernyi mir, za gumanizm mezhdunarodnykh otnoshenii: Rech' na vstreche v Kremle s uchastnikami mezhdunarodnogo foruma "Za bez"yadernyi mir, za vyzhivanie chelovechestva", 16 fevralya 1987 goda (Moscow, Politizdat, 1987), p. 24.
122. In April 1985 he became Head of the Central Committee Propaganda Department, in January 1986 Central Committee Secretary, in January 1987 candidate member of the Politburo, and in June 1987 full member of the latter body.
123. The Directorate was headed by Lev Mendelevich, who previously had been involved in preparing Warsaw Treaty declarations and had shown interest in non-offensive defence concepts; see Leighton & Rudney, 'Towards a Soviet-German Security Partnership?', pp. 385-386. On the Scientific Coordination Centre, see its head, Vladimir Shustov, 'Diplomacy and Science', International Affairs, 1990, 4, pp. 13-23.
124. The Directorate was headed by Lev Mendelevich, who previously had been involved in preparing Warsaw Treaty declarations and had shown interest in non-offensive defence concepts; see Leighton & Rudney, 'Towards a Soviet-German Security Partnership?', pp. 385-386. On the Scientific Coordination Centre, see its head, Vladimir Shustov, 'Diplomacy and Science', International Affairs, 1990, 4, pp. 13-23.
125. This is what a 'well-informed source at ISKAN' told Kimberly Zisk; see Zisk, Engaging the Enemy, p. 161.
126. According to Eberhard Schneider, 'Soviet Foreign-Policy Think Tanks', The Washington Quarterly, 11, 2, Spring 1988, p. 154, and Eberhard Schneider, Die wichtigste zentralen Westforschungsinstituie der UdSSR. Teil II: Leistungsfähigkeit, neues Denken und politischer Einfluß, Bericht No. 19 (Cologne, Bundesinstitut für ostwissenschaftliche und internationale Studien, 1988), pp. 34-35.
127. According to Eberhard Schneider, 'Soviet Foreign-Policy Think Tanks', The Washington Quarterly, 11, 2, Spring 1988, p. 154, and Eberhard Schneider, Die wichtigste zentralen Westforschungsinstituie der UdSSR. Teil II: Leistungsfähigkeit, neues Denken und politischer Einfluß, Bericht No. 19 (Cologne, Bundesinstitut für ostwissenschaftliche und internationale Studien, 1988), pp. 34-35.
128. See the content analysis in Snel, From the Atlantic to the Urals, pp. 81-88.
129. See Makhmut Gareyev, The revised Soviet military doctrine', Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 44, 10, December 1988, p. 32; and Akhromeev & Kornienko, Glazami marshala i diplomata, pp. 179-184.
130. See Makhmut Gareyev, The revised Soviet military doctrine', Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 44, 10, December 1988, p. 32; and Akhromeev & Kornienko, Glazami marshala i diplomata, pp. 179-184.
131. Interview with Major-General Aleksandr I. Vladimirov, Moscow, 27 September 1994.
132. See Lothar Rühl, 'Offensive defence in the Warsaw Pact', Survival, 33, 5, September/October 1991, p. 447; 'Warsaw Pact Military Planning in Central Europe: Revelations From the East German Archives', Cold War International History Project Bulletin, 2, Fall 1992, Washington: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, p. 15; and Heuser, 'Warsaw Pact Military Doctrines in the 1970s and 1980s', pp. 448-449.
133. See Lothar Rühl, 'Offensive defence in the Warsaw Pact', Survival, 33, 5, September/October 1991, p. 447; 'Warsaw Pact Military Planning in Central Europe: Revelations From the East German Archives', Cold War International History Project Bulletin, 2, Fall 1992, Washington: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, p. 15; and Heuser, 'Warsaw Pact Military Doctrines in the 1970s and 1980s', pp. 448-449.
134. See Lothar Rühl, 'Offensive defence in the Warsaw Pact', Survival, 33, 5, September/October 1991, p. 447; 'Warsaw Pact Military Planning in Central Europe: Revelations From the East German Archives', Cold War International History Project Bulletin, 2, Fall 1992, Washington: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, p. 15; and Heuser, 'Warsaw Pact Military Doctrines in the 1970s and 1980s', pp. 448-449.
135. In other realms, concrete steps had been taken, e.g. the September 1986 Stockholm agreement on confidence and security-building measures, which first allowed on-site inspections; the December 1987 INF Treaty, which eliminated a category of nuclear weapons in which the Soviet Union had a strong quantitative preponderance; and the April 1988 agreement on the withdrawal of Soviet forces from Afghanistan.
136. 'Vystuplenie M. S. Gorbacheva v Organizatsii Ob"edinennykh Natsii', Pravda, 8 December 1988, pp. 1-2.
137. See the assessment of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Military Balance 1989-1990 (London, Brassey's/IISS, 1990), p. 231.
138. See e.g. Gouré, 'A New Soviet National Security Policy for the 21st Century', and Dennis M. Gormley, Double Zero and Soviet Military Strategy
139. See e.g. Gouré, 'A New Soviet National Security Policy for the 21st Century', and Dennis M. Gormley, Double Zero and Soviet Military Strategy (London, Tri-Service Press, 1990, second ed.), pp. xi-xx.
140. See Garthoff, Deterrence and the Revolution in Soviet Military Doctrine, p. 166.
141. Akhromeev & Kornienko, Glazami marshala i diplomata, pp. 211-214.
142. Sergei Akhromeev, 'Doktrina predotvrashcheniya voiny, zashchity mira i sotsializma', Problemy mira i sotsializma, 1987, 12, pp. 23-24, 27.
143. See the content analysis in Snel, From the Atlantic to the Urals, pp. 88-94.
144. According to his aide A. S. Chernyaev, Shest' let s Gorbachevym: Po dnevnikovym zapisyam (Moscow, Progress-Kultura, 1993), pp. 253-254.
145. Vitaly Zhurkin, Sergei Karaganov & Andrei Kortunov, 'Reasonable Sufficiency - or How to Break the Vicious Circle', New Times, 1987, 40, pp. 13-15, and their enlarged version, 'O razumnoi dostatochnosti', SShA - ekonomika, politika, ideologiya, 1987, 12, pp. 11-21 , According to Sergei Karaganov (interview with the author, Moscow, 22 October 1991), the military criticism of these articles was very strong, but lessened when the authors made the same kind of argument in the official party organ, 'Vyzovy bezopasnosti - starye i novye', Kommunist, 1988, 1, pp. 42-50.
146. Vitaly Zhurkin, Sergei Karaganov & Andrei Kortunov, 'Reasonable Sufficiency - or How to Break the Vicious Circle', New Times, 1987, 40, pp. 13-15, and their enlarged version, 'O razumnoi dostatochnosti', SShA - ekonomika, politika, ideologiya, 1987, 12, pp. 11-21 , According to Sergei Karaganov (interview with the author, Moscow, 22 October 1991), the military criticism of these articles was very strong, but lessened when the authors made the same kind of argument in the official party organ, 'Vyzovy bezopasnosti - starye i novye', Kommunist, 1988, 1, pp. 42-50.
147. Vitaly Zhurkin, Sergei Karaganov & Andrei Kortunov, 'Reasonable Sufficiency - or How to Break the Vicious Circle', New Times, 1987, 40, pp. 13-15, and their enlarged version, 'O razumnoi dostatochnosti', SShA - ekonomika, politika, ideologiya, 1987, 12, pp. 11-21 , According to Sergei Karaganov (interview with the author, Moscow, 22 October 1991), the military criticism of these articles was very strong, but lessened when the authors made the same kind of argument in the official party organ, 'Vyzovy bezopasnosti - starye i novye', Kommunist, 1988, 1, pp. 42-50.
148. According to Chernyaev, Shest' let s Gorbachevym, p. 257.
149. Ibid., p. 256.
150. This is at least what Akhromeev himself asserts in Akhromeev & Kornienko, Glazami marshala i diplomata, pp. 69-70, 227 and 233.
151. Gareev at a press conference, as reported in 'Doktrina predotvrashcheniya voiny', Krasnaya zvezda, 23 June 1987, p. 3.
152. According to documents found in East German archives, as cited in Heuser, 'Warsaw Pact Military Doctrines in the 1970s and 1980s', pp. 447, 449.
153. See Army General A. Gribkov, 'Doktrina sokhraneniya mira', Krasnava zvezda, 25 September 1987, pp. 2-3.
154. See e.g. Akhromeev's explanation of the Berlin Declaration, 'Doktrina predotvrashcheniya voiny', pp. 26-27.
155. See the Commander-in-Chief of the Warsaw Treaty forces Marshal Viktor Kulikov, 'Warsaw Treaty Military Doctrine - A Doctrine of Peace', NATO's Sixteen Nations, April/May 1988, pp. 32-33.
156. As reported in Odom, 'Soviet Military Doctrine', p. 130, and Garthoff, Deterrence and the Revolution in Soviet Military Doctrine, p. 183.
157. As reported in Odom, 'Soviet Military Doctrine', p. 130, and Garthoff, Deterrence and the Revolution in Soviet Military Doctrine, p. 183.
158. See the analysis of the military debate in Snel, From the Atlantic to the Urals, pp. 183-186.
159. 'Tret'ya spetsial'naya sessiya General'noi Assamblei OON po razoruzheniyu: Vystuplenie E. A. Shevardnadze', Pravda, 9 June 1988, p. 4.
160. Sergey F. Akhromeyev, 'SIPRI 1988 Olaf Palme Memorial Lecture: "Arms Control and Arms Reduction: The Agenda Ahead"', SIPRI Yearbook 1989: World Armaments and Disarmament (Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1989), pp. 469-470.
161. See e.g. ISKAN head of section Colonel (ret.) Lev Semeiko, as cited in W. Bogdanow & G. Lokschin, 'Unser "runder Tisch". Vernünftig heißt ausreichend', Das 20. Jahrhundert und der Frieden, 1987, 12, p. 3; and Alexei Arbatov, 'Military Doctrines', in E. Primakov (ed.), Disarmament and Securiry: Yearbook 1987 (Moscow, Novosti, 1988), p. 221.
162. See e.g. ISKAN head of section Colonel (ret.) Lev Semeiko, as cited in W. Bogdanow & G. Lokschin, 'Unser "runder Tisch". Vernünftig heißt ausreichend', Das 20. Jahrhundert und der Frieden, 1987, 12, p. 3; and Alexei Arbatov, 'Military Doctrines', in E. Primakov (ed.), Disarmament and Securiry: Yearbook 1987 (Moscow, Novosti, 1988), p. 221.
163. A. Yakovlev, 'Dostizhenie kachestvenno novogo sostoyaniya sovetskogo obshchestva i obshchestvennye nauki', Kommunist, 1987 8, p. 18, and M. S. Gorbachev, 'Realnost' i garantii bezopasnogo mira', Pravda, 17 September 1987, p. 1.
164. A. Yakovlev, 'Dostizhenie kachestvenno novogo sostoyaniya sovetskogo obshchestva i obshchestvennye nauki', Kommunist, 1987 8, p. 18, and M. S. Gorbachev, 'Realnost' i garantii bezopasnogo mira', Pravda, 17 September 1987, p. 1.
165. Interview with Prof. E. Boeker, member of the group, Amsterdam, 18 December 1990; meetings were held in May 1987, April 1988, September 1988 (Moscow) and, finally, a conference in November 1988. On this conference, see Marlies ter Borg & Wim A. Smit (eds), Non-Provocative Defence as a Principle of Arms Reduction and Its Implications for Assessing Defence Technologies (Amsterdam, Free University Press, 1989).
166. A. Kokoshin & V. Larionov, 'Kurskaya bitva v svete sovremennoi oboronitel'noi doktriny', Mirovaya Ekonomika i Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya, 1987, 8, pp. 32-40; Lev Semeiko, as cited in Bogdanow & Lokschin, 'Unser "runder Tisch", p. 3; A. Kokoshin. 'Razvitie voennogo dela i sokrashchenie vooruzhennykh sil i obychnykh vooruzhenii', Mirovaya Ekonomika i Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya, 1988, 1, pp. 20-32; Kokoshin & Larionov, 'Protivostoyanie sil obshchego naznacheniya'; Andrei Kokoshin, 'Defence Is Best for Stability', New Times, 1988, 33, pp. 18-19; and Alexander Konovalov & Valeri Mazing, 'Qualitative elements of conventional stability and technological threats', in Ter Borg & Smit, Non-Provocative Defence as a Principle of Arms Reduction, pp. 49-60.
167. A. Kokoshin & V. Larionov, 'Kurskaya bitva v svete sovremennoi oboronitel'noi doktriny', Mirovaya Ekonomika i Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya, 1987, 8, pp. 32-40; Lev Semeiko, as cited in Bogdanow & Lokschin, 'Unser "runder Tisch", p. 3; A. Kokoshin. 'Razvitie voennogo dela i sokrashchenie vooruzhennykh sil i obychnykh vooruzhenii', Mirovaya Ekonomika i Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya, 1988, 1, pp. 20-32; Kokoshin & Larionov, 'Protivostoyanie sil obshchego naznacheniya'; Andrei Kokoshin, 'Defence Is Best for Stability', New Times, 1988, 33, pp. 18-19; and Alexander Konovalov & Valeri Mazing, 'Qualitative elements of conventional stability and technological threats', in Ter Borg & Smit, Non-Provocative Defence as a Principle of Arms Reduction, pp. 49-60.
168. A. Kokoshin & V. Larionov, 'Kurskaya bitva v svete sovremennoi oboronitel'noi doktriny', Mirovaya Ekonomika i Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya, 1987, 8, pp. 32-40; Lev Semeiko, as cited in Bogdanow & Lokschin, 'Unser "runder Tisch", p. 3; A. Kokoshin. 'Razvitie voennogo dela i sokrashchenie vooruzhennykh sil i obychnykh vooruzhenii', Mirovaya Ekonomika i Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya, 1988, 1, pp. 20-32; Kokoshin & Larionov, 'Protivostoyanie sil obshchego naznacheniya'; Andrei Kokoshin, 'Defence Is Best for Stability', New Times, 1988, 33, pp. 18-19; and Alexander Konovalov & Valeri Mazing, 'Qualitative elements of conventional stability and technological threats', in Ter Borg & Smit, Non-Provocative Defence as a Principle of Arms Reduction, pp. 49-60.
169. A. Kokoshin & V. Larionov, 'Kurskaya bitva v svete sovremennoi oboronitel'noi doktriny', Mirovaya Ekonomika i Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya, 1987, 8, pp. 32-40; Lev Semeiko, as cited in Bogdanow & Lokschin, 'Unser "runder Tisch", p. 3; A. Kokoshin. 'Razvitie voennogo dela i sokrashchenie vooruzhennykh sil i obychnykh vooruzhenii', Mirovaya Ekonomika i Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya, 1988, 1, pp. 20-32; Kokoshin & Larionov, 'Protivostoyanie sil obshchego naznacheniya'; Andrei Kokoshin, 'Defence Is Best for Stability', New Times, 1988, 33, pp. 18-19; and Alexander Konovalov & Valeri Mazing, 'Qualitative elements of conventional stability and technological threats', in Ter Borg & Smit, Non-Provocative Defence as a Principle of Arms Reduction, pp. 49-60.
170. A. Kokoshin & V. Larionov, 'Kurskaya bitva v svete sovremennoi oboronitel'noi doktriny', Mirovaya Ekonomika i Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya, 1987, 8, pp. 32-40; Lev Semeiko, as cited in Bogdanow & Lokschin, 'Unser "runder Tisch", p. 3; A. Kokoshin. 'Razvitie voennogo dela i sokrashchenie vooruzhennykh sil i obychnykh vooruzhenii', Mirovaya Ekonomika i Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya, 1988, 1, pp. 20-32; Kokoshin & Larionov, 'Protivostoyanie sil obshchego naznacheniya'; Andrei Kokoshin, 'Defence Is Best for Stability', New Times, 1988, 33, pp. 18-19; and Alexander Konovalov & Valeri Mazing, 'Qualitative elements of conventional stability and technological threats', in Ter Borg & Smit, Non-Provocative Defence as a Principle of Arms Reduction, pp. 49-60.
171. A. Kokoshin & V. Larionov, 'Kurskaya bitva v svete sovremennoi oboronitel'noi doktriny', Mirovaya Ekonomika i Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya, 1987, 8, pp. 32-40; Lev Semeiko, as cited in Bogdanow & Lokschin, 'Unser "runder Tisch", p. 3; A. Kokoshin. 'Razvitie voennogo dela i sokrashchenie vooruzhennykh sil i obychnykh vooruzhenii', Mirovaya Ekonomika i Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya, 1988, 1, pp. 20-32; Kokoshin & Larionov, 'Protivostoyanie sil obshchego naznacheniya'; Andrei Kokoshin, 'Defence Is Best for Stability', New Times, 1988, 33, pp. 18-19; and Alexander Konovalov & Valeri Mazing, 'Qualitative elements of conventional stability and technological threats', in Ter Borg & Smit, Non-Provocative Defence as a Principle of Arms Reduction, pp. 49-60.
172. Oleg Amirov, Nikolai Kishilov, Vadim Makarevsky & Yuri Usachev, 'Problems of Reducing Military Confrontation', in E. Primakov (ed.), Disarmament and Security: Yearbook 1987 (Moscow, Novosti, 1988), p. 390.
173. 'O nazrevshikh merakh po korennym izmeneniyam voennykh prigotovlenii SSSR', a classified memorandum of IMEMO working group under Aleksandr Yakovlev, spring 1987, and author's interviews with two members of the group: IMEMO Department Head Sergei E. Blagovolin, Moscow, 19 March 1992 and 5 October 1994, and former head of section at the General Staff's Main Intelligence Department (GRU) Vitalii Shlykov, Moscow, 22 October 1993.
174. Interview with Alexei Arbatov, Moscow, 20 March 1992.
175. See Leighton & Rudney, 'Towards a Soviet-German Security Partnership?', pp. 384-385, and the note on this letter in Non-Offensive Defence - International Research Newsletter, 1988, 8, p. 13.
176. See Leighton & Rudney, 'Towards a Soviet-German Security Partnership?', pp. 384-385, and the note on this letter in Non-Offensive Defence - International Research Newsletter, 1988, 8, p. 13.
177. This is partly reflected in the article 'Evropeiskoe razoruzhenie: Idei, plany, perspektivy', Pravda, 10 October 1988, p. 6, by Major-General Gelii Batenin of the Central Committee, who participated in the meeting.
178. See the statements of Section Chairmen Anatoli Kovalov and Yuli Vorontsov at a 'Scientific-Practical Conference' of the Foreign Ministry in July 1988, as reported in International Affairs, 1988, 10 pp. 37 and 41; and A. Kozyrev, 'Confidence and the Balance of Interests', International Affairs, 1988, 11, p. 10.
179. See the statements of Section Chairmen Anatoli Kovalov and Yuli Vorontsov at a 'Scientific-Practical Conference' of the Foreign Ministry in July 1988, as reported in International Affairs, 1988, 10 pp. 37 and 41; and A. Kozyrev, 'Confidence and the Balance of Interests', International Affairs, 1988, 11, p. 10.
180. See Elaine Holoboff, The Soviet Concept of Reasonable Sufficiency: Conventional Arms Control in an Era of Transition, Working Paper 29 (Ottawa, Canadian Institute for International Peace and Security. October 1990), pp. 27-28. Michael MccGwire, Perestroika and Soviet National Security, pp. 320-321, refers to rumours about two commissions, one chaired by the Head of the General Staff Main Operations Department Vladimir N. Lobov and one by Vice-President of the Academy of Sciences Evgenii Velikhov, both of which prepared a proposal. However, none of the Soviet persons interviewed by the present author could confirm that such groups had existed.
181. See Elaine Holoboff, The Soviet Concept of Reasonable Sufficiency: Conventional Arms Control in an Era of Transition, Working Paper 29 (Ottawa, Canadian Institute for International Peace and Security. October 1990), pp. 27-28. Michael MccGwire, Perestroika and Soviet National Security, pp. 320-321, refers to rumours about two commissions, one chaired by the Head of the General Staff Main Operations Department Vladimir N. Lobov and one by Vice-President of the Academy of Sciences Evgenii Velikhov, both of which prepared a proposal. However, none of the Soviet persons interviewed by the present author could confirm that such groups had existed.
182. According to Lieutenant-General Vasilii Starodubov, official of the arms control section of the party's International Department, in an interview with the author, Moscow, 29 September 1994. The 'Five' refers to the five institutions that were represented in these organs; in the 'Big Five' they were represented by the heads and chiefs, in the 'Small Five' by their deputies.
183. On these organs, see Aleksandr' G. Savel'yev & Nikolay N. Detinov, The Big Five: Arms Control Decision-Making in the Soviet Union (Westport, Praeger, 1995), and Akhromeev & Kornienko, Glazami marshala i diplomata.
184. On these organs, see Aleksandr' G. Savel'yev & Nikolay N. Detinov, The Big Five: Arms Control Decision-Making in the Soviet Union (Westport, Praeger, 1995), and Akhromeev & Kornienko, Glazami marshala i diplomata.
185. Interview with an anonymous General Staff officer, Moscow, 27 March 1992.
186. For example the Yug-89 exercise; see Heuser, 'Warsaw Pact Military Doctrines in the 1970s and 1980s', p. 449; see also Lieutenant-General Mikhail N. Kalinin, ' "Druzhba-89". Na territorii GDR prokhodit sovmestnoe voiskovoe uchenie bratskikh armii', Krasnaya zvezda, 19 March 1989, p. 2.
187. For example the Yug-89 exercise; see Heuser, 'Warsaw Pact Military Doctrines in the 1970s and 1980s', p. 449; see also Lieutenant-General Mikhail N. Kalinin, ' "Druzhba-89". Na territorii GDR prokhodit sovmestnoe voiskovoe uchenie bratskikh armii', Krasnaya zvezda, 19 March 1989, p. 2.
188. See Heuser, 'Warsaw Pact Military Doctrines in the 1970s and 1980s', p. 450; 'Warsaw Pact Military Planning in Central Europe', pp. 14-15: and Rühl, 'Offensive defence in the Warsaw Pact', p. 448.
189. See Heuser, 'Warsaw Pact Military Doctrines in the 1970s and 1980s', p. 450; 'Warsaw Pact Military Planning in Central Europe', pp. 14-15: and Rühl, 'Offensive defence in the Warsaw Pact', p. 448.
190. See Heuser, 'Warsaw Pact Military Doctrines in the 1970s and 1980s', p. 450; 'Warsaw Pact Military Planning in Central Europe', pp. 14-15: and Rühl, 'Offensive defence in the Warsaw Pact', p. 448.
191. Interview with Major-General A. I. Vladimirov, Moscow, 27 September 1994; Vladimirov served as a division commander in the German Democratic Republic.
192. Interviews with an anonymous General Staff officer, Moscow, 27 March 1992.
193. On the lack of specification see Ole Diehl, Die Strategiediskussinn in der Sowjetunion: Zum Wandel der sowjetischen Kriegsführungskonzeption in den achtziger Jahren (Wiesbaden, Deutscher Universitätsverlag, 1993), pp. 266-267, and on the lack of monitoring, Snel, From the Atlantic to the Urals, p. 146.
194. On the lack of specification see Ole Diehl, Die Strategiediskussinn in der Sowjetunion: Zum Wandel der sowjetischen Kriegsführungskonzeption in den achtziger Jahren (Wiesbaden, Deutscher Universitätsverlag, 1993), pp. 266-267, and on the lack of monitoring, Snel, From the Atlantic to the Urals, p. 146.
195. See 'Mandate for Negotiation on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe', appendix to Ter Borg & Smit, Non-Provocative Defence as a Principle of Arms Reduction, pp. 281-284; and 'Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe', SIPRI Yearbook 1991: World Armaments and Disarmament (Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1991), pp. 461-474.
196. See 'Mandate for Negotiation on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe', appendix to Ter Borg & Smit, Non-Provocative Defence as a Principle of Arms Reduction, pp. 281-284; and 'Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe', SIPRI Yearbook 1991: World Armaments and Disarmament (Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1991), pp. 461-474.
197. See the Warsaw Treaty's booklet Varshavskii Dogovor i NATO: sootnoshenie sil v Evrope (Moscow, Novosti, 1989).
198. See e.g. the polemic between ISKAN director Georgii Arbatov and Marshal Akhromeev in the spring of 1990, as reported in Schröder, Sowjetische Rüstungs-und Sicherheitspolitik zwischen 'Stagnation' und 'Perestrojka', pp. 206-207; and between IMEMO deputy director Alexei Arbatov and deputy Chief of the Lenin Military-Political Academy Lieutenant-General V. V. Serebryannikov in New Times, 1990, 6, 12 and 17.
199. See e.g. the polemic between ISKAN director Georgii Arbatov and Marshal Akhromeev in the spring of 1990, as reported in Schröder, Sowjetische Rüstungs-und Sicherheitspolitik zwischen 'Stagnation' und 'Perestrojka', pp. 206-207; and between IMEMO deputy director Alexei Arbatov and deputy Chief of the Lenin Military-Political Academy Lieutenant-General V. V. Serebryannikov in New Times, 1990, 6, 12 and 17.
200. This conclusion is drawn by Anton Krakau & Ole Diehl, Die Militärexperten der sowjetischen Westforschungsinstitute und die innersowjetische Strategiediskussion, Bericht No. 41 (Cologne, Bundesinstitut für ostwissenschaftliche und internationale Studien, 1989), pp. 17-18.
201. See the Soviet claims at the seminar on military doctrines held under the auspices of the CSCE, as referred to in Zisk, Engaging the Enemy, p. 170, and in N. F. Chervov, 'Na puti k doveriyu i bezopasnosti (k itogam Venskogo seminara po voennym doktrinam)', Voennava mysl', 1990, 6, pp. 5-14.
202. See the Soviet claims at the seminar on military doctrines held under the auspices of the CSCE, as referred to in Zisk, Engaging the Enemy, p. 170, and in N. F. Chervov, 'Na puti k doveriyu i bezopasnosti (k itogam Venskogo seminara po voennym doktrinam)', Voennava mysl', 1990, 6, pp. 5-14.
203. See e.g. First Deputy Chief of the General Staff Colonel-General A. N. Kleimenov, 'O nekotorykh metodologicheskikh podkhodakh k resheniyu problem voiny i mira (voenno-politicheskii aspekt)', Voennaya mysl', 1990, 9, pp. 15-16, and the General Staffs draft military doctrine, 'O voennoi doktrine SSSR [Proekt]', Voennava mysl' - spetsial'nyi vypusk, 1990, p. 27.
204. See e.g. First Deputy Chief of the General Staff Colonel-General A. N. Kleimenov, 'O nekotorykh metodologicheskikh podkhodakh k resheniyu problem voiny i mira (voenno-politicheskii aspekt)', Voennaya mysl', 1990, 9, pp. 15-16, and the General Staffs draft military doctrine, 'O voennoi doktrine SSSR [Proekt]', Voennava mysl' - spetsial'nyi vypusk, 1990, p. 27.
205. 'O voennoi doktrine SSSR [Proekt]', p. 28.
206. See the analysis of various articles in Voennaya mysl' in Snel, From the Atlantic to the Urals, pp. 214-215; for civilian criticism of the offensive warfare principles, see A. A. Kokoshin, 'K voprosu o vnezapnosti', Voennaya mysl', 1989 1, pp. 62-68; Andrei Kokoshin & Valentin Larionov, 'Shifting the emphasis to defence', New Times, 1989, 10, p. 20; and A. Savel'ev, 'Predotvrashchenie voiny i sderzhivanie: podkhody OVD i NATO', Mirovaya Ekonomika i Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya, 1989, 6, pp. 28-29.
207. See the analysis of various articles in Voennaya mysl' in Snel, From the Atlantic to the Urals, pp. 214-215; for civilian criticism of the offensive warfare principles, see A. A. Kokoshin, 'K voprosu o vnezapnosti', Voennaya mysl', 1989 1, pp. 62-68; Andrei Kokoshin & Valentin Larionov, 'Shifting the emphasis to defence', New Times, 1989, 10, p. 20; and A. Savel'ev, 'Predotvrashchenie voiny i sderzhivanie: podkhody OVD i NATO', Mirovaya Ekonomika i Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya, 1989, 6, pp. 28-29.
208. See the analysis of various articles in Voennaya mysl' in Snel, From the Atlantic to the Urals, pp. 214-215; for civilian criticism of the offensive warfare principles, see A. A. Kokoshin, 'K voprosu o vnezapnosti', Voennaya mysl', 1989 1, pp. 62-68; Andrei Kokoshin & Valentin Larionov, 'Shifting the emphasis to defence', New Times, 1989, 10, p. 20; and A. Savel'ev, 'Predotvrashchenie voiny i sderzhivanie: podkhody OVD i NATO', Mirovaya Ekonomika i Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya, 1989, 6, pp. 28-29.
209. See the analysis of various articles in Voennaya mysl' in Snel, From the Atlantic to the Urals, pp. 214-215; for civilian criticism of the offensive warfare principles, see A. A. Kokoshin, 'K voprosu o vnezapnosti', Voennaya mysl', 1989 1, pp. 62-68; Andrei Kokoshin & Valentin Larionov, 'Shifting the emphasis to defence', New Times, 1989, 10, p. 20; and A. Savel'ev, 'Predotvrashchenie voiny i sderzhivanie: podkhody OVD i NATO', Mirovaya Ekonomika i Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya, 1989, 6, pp. 28-29.
210. Exceptions were Andrei Kokoshin, Alexander Konovalov, Valentin Larionov & Valeri Mazing, Problems of Ensuring Stability with Radical Cuts in Armed Forces and Conventional Armaments in Europe (Moscow, Novosti, 1989); A. Arbatov, N. Kishilov & O. Amirov, 'Sokrashchenie vooruzhennykh sil i obychnykh vooruzhenii v Evrope: Venskie peregovory', Mirovaya Ekonomika i Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya, 1989, 7, pp. 101-112; and Alexei Arbatov, Nikolai Kishilov, Oleg Amirov & Yuri Streltsov, 'Negotiations on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe', in E. Primakov (ed.), Disarmament and Security: Yearbook 1988-1989 (Moscow, Novosti, 1989), pp. 275-318.
211. Exceptions were Andrei Kokoshin, Alexander Konovalov, Valentin Larionov & Valeri Mazing, Problems of Ensuring Stability with Radical Cuts in Armed Forces and Conventional Armaments in Europe (Moscow, Novosti, 1989); A. Arbatov, N. Kishilov & O. Amirov, 'Sokrashchenie vooruzhennykh sil i obychnykh vooruzhenii v Evrope: Venskie peregovory', Mirovaya Ekonomika i Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya, 1989, 7, pp. 101-112; and Alexei Arbatov, Nikolai Kishilov, Oleg Amirov & Yuri Streltsov, 'Negotiations on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe', in E. Primakov (ed.), Disarmament and Security: Yearbook 1988-1989 (Moscow, Novosti, 1989), pp. 275-318.
212. Exceptions were Andrei Kokoshin, Alexander Konovalov, Valentin Larionov & Valeri Mazing, Problems of Ensuring Stability with Radical Cuts in Armed Forces and Conventional Armaments in Europe (Moscow, Novosti, 1989); A. Arbatov, N. Kishilov & O. Amirov, 'Sokrashchenie vooruzhennykh sil i obychnykh vooruzhenii v Evrope: Venskie peregovory', Mirovaya Ekonomika i Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya, 1989, 7, pp. 101-112; and Alexei Arbatov, Nikolai Kishilov, Oleg Amirov & Yuri Streltsov, 'Negotiations on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe', in E. Primakov (ed.), Disarmament and Security: Yearbook 1988-1989 (Moscow, Novosti, 1989), pp. 275-318.
213. See the military reform proposal of a Supreme Soviet commission headed by People's Deputy Major Vladimir Lopatin, 'O podgotovke i provedenii voennoi reformy v SSSR [Proekt]', Mirovaya Ekonomika i Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya, 1990, 9, pp. 117-122; see also Snel, From the Atlantic to the Urals, pp. 139-141.
214. See the military reform proposal of a Supreme Soviet commission headed by People's Deputy Major Vladimir Lopatin, 'O podgotovke i provedenii voennoi reformy v SSSR [Proekt]', Mirovaya Ekonomika i Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya, 1990, 9, pp. 117-122; see also Snel, From the Atlantic to the Urals, pp. 139-141.
215. For some examples see Michael R. Beschloss & Strobe Talbott, At the Highest Levels: The Inside Story of the End of the Cold War (Boston, Little, Brown, 1993).
216. For an overview of the course of the CFE negotiations see Jane M. O. Sharp, 'Conventional Arms Control in Europe', in SIPRI Yearbook 1990: World Armaments and Disarmament (Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1990), pp. 459-507, and Jane M. O. Sharp, 'Conventional Arms Control in Europe', in SIPRI Yearbook 1991: World Armaments and Disarmament (Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1991), pp. 407-460.
217. For an overview of the course of the CFE negotiations see Jane M. O. Sharp, 'Conventional Arms Control in Europe', in SIPRI Yearbook 1990: World Armaments and Disarmament (Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1990), pp. 459-507, and Jane M. O. Sharp, 'Conventional Arms Control in Europe', in SIPRI Yearbook 1991: World Armaments and Disarmament (Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1991), pp. 407-460.
218. Actually, 'reasonable sufficiency' had no precursor in the academic debate: it was launched by Gorbachev in the autumn of 1985. See Holoboff, The Soviet Concept of Reasonable Sufficiency.
219. For a more detailed analysis see Gerard Snel, 'Institutional Structure and Soviet Defence Policy Change', Cooperation and Conflict, 32, 2, June 1997, pp. 147-179.
220. For three excellent analyses that fit this approach see Diehl, Die Strategiediskussion in der Sowjetunion, Schröder, Sowjetische Rüstungs-und Sicherheitspolitik zwischen 'Stagnation' und 'Perestrojka', and Zisk, Engaging the Enemy.
221. For three excellent analyses that fit this approach see Diehl, Die Strategiediskussion in der Sowjetunion, Schröder, Sowjetische Rüstungs-und Sicherheitspolitik zwischen 'Stagnation' und 'Perestrojka', and Zisk, Engaging the Enemy.
222. After reviewing explanations of the end of the Cold War, Isabelle Grunberg & Thomas Risse-Kappen, 'A Time of Reckoning? Theories of International Relations and the End of the Cold War', in Pierre Allan & Kjell Goldmann (eds), The End of the Cold War: Evaluating Theories of International Relations (Dordrecht, Martinus Nijhoff Publishers, 1992), pp. 104-146, come to a similar conclusion.
223. See for a similar conclusion Evangelista, 'The Paradox of State Strength'. The View of Kimberly Zisk, Engaging the Enemy, pp. 126-129, that these academics succeeded in building bridges to the military policy community is not shared here, as no evidence was found of high-level officers seriously discussing the defensive restructuring proposals put forward by mezhdunarodniki.
224. See for a similar conclusion Evangelista, 'The Paradox of State Strength'. The View of Kimberly Zisk, Engaging the Enemy, pp. 126-129, that these academics succeeded in building bridges to the military policy community is not shared here, as no evidence was found of high-level officers seriously discussing the defensive restructuring proposals put forward by mezhdunarodniki.
225. Compare Sarah E. Mendelson, 'Internal Battles and External Wars: Politics, Learning, and the Soviet Withdrawal from Afghanistan' World Politics, 45, 3, April 1993, pp. 327-360.
226. For both positions see Evangelista, 'The Paradox of State Strength', p. 37.