The class of 1990: How have the autocratic leaders of sub-Saharan Africa fared under democratisation?

Third World Quarterly

Volumn 19, Issue 1, 1998, Pages 115-127

  Baker, Bruce ^a  

^a Institute for Clean Growth and Future Mobility   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DEMOCRATISATION; LEADERSHIP; POLITICAL REFORM;

AFRICA, (SUB-SAHARA);

EID: 0031775960     PISSN: 01436597     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/01436599814550     Document Type: Article

References (27)

1. R Sandbrook, The Politics of Africa's Economic Stagnation, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1985, ch 5; and R Jackson & C Rosberg, Personal Rule In Black Africa, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1992.
2. R Sandbrook, The Politics of Africa's Economic Stagnation, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1985, ch 5; and R Jackson & C Rosberg, Personal Rule In Black Africa, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1992.
3. Subsequently others have followed in their footsteps, eg Mainassara, Niger, 1996; and Jammeh, Gambia, 1994. Bratton talks of 'the mutation of personalistic dictatorships'. M Bratton, 'Deciphering Africa's divergent transitions', Political Science Quarterly, 112 (1), 1997, p 68.
4. Chiluba did his utmost to prevent Kaunda standing against him a second time. Before the 1997 Presidential election he pressed through legislation that forbade anyone to hold the presidential office for more than two terms, while candidates were excluded if they did not have Zambian-born parents. Kaunda failed on both counts and thus was unable to contest the election.
5. S Mainwaring, G O'Donnell & J Valenzuela (eds), Issues in Democratic Consolidation: The New South American Democracies in Comparative Perspective, South Bend, University of Notre Dame Press, 1992.
6. Jackson & Rosberg, Personal Rule, 1992, p 19.
7. R Joseph, 'Demoralization in Africa after 1989: comparative and theoretical perspectives'. Comparative Politics, 29 (3), 1997, pp 363-382.
8. S Riley, 'Political adjustment or domestic pressure: democratic politics and political choice in Africa', third World Quarterly, 13 (3), 1992, p 544.
9. National Conferences to discuss and/or plan democratic transition were also held in Congo-Brazzaville, February 1990; Gabon, March 1990; Zaire, February 1991; Togo, July/August 1991; Niger, July 1992; and Chad, January 1993.
10. Africa Research Bulletin, 28 (5), 1991, p 10121.
11. M Bratton & N van de Walle, 'Popular protest and political reform in Africa', Comparative Politics, 24 (4), 1992, p 46. Bratton, 'Deciphering Africa's Divergent Transitions', terms this a 'blocked' transition, as opposed to a 'flawed' transition, where elections are accepted but manipulated.
12. M Bratton & N van de Walle, 'Popular protest and political reform in Africa', Comparative Politics, 24 (4), 1992, p 46. Bratton, 'Deciphering Africa's Divergent Transitions', terms this a 'blocked' transition, as opposed to a 'flawed' transition, where elections are accepted but manipulated.
13. M Oquaye, 'The Ghanaian elections of 1992 - a dissenting view', African Affairs, 94, 1995, p 271.
14. R Lemarchand, 'Africa's troubled transitions'. Journal of Democracy, 3 (4), 1992, p 105.
15. J Barkan, 'Kenya: lessons from a flawed election', Journal of Democracy, 4 (3) 1993, p 93.
16. 'Eliminate' is a word that is apparently ambiguous to the former South African security chiefs. According to their testimony to the Truth and Reconciliation Commission it did not imply fatal consequences when used in directives to operatives. For the latter it left them in no doubt as to what was required against the opponents of apartheid.
17. Lemarchand, 'Africa's troubled transitions', p 104.
18. The opposition leader, former prime minister Tshisekedi, had his home attacked on 7 and 11 July 1994. The shooting of the protesters occurred on 29 July 1995. Africa Research Bulletin 31 (8), 1994, p 11507 and 32 (8), 1995, p 11963.
19. The opposition leader, former prime minister Tshisekedi, had his home attacked on 7 and 11 July 1994. The shooting of the protesters occurred on 29 July 1995. Africa Research Bulletin 31 (8), 1994, p 11507 and 32 (8), 1995, p 11963.
20. Africa Research Bulletin, 30 (4), 1993, p 10986.
21. Africa Research Bulletin, 27 (7), 1990, p 760.
22. Africa Research Bulletin, 29 (5), 1992, p 10572.
23. Barkan, 'Kenya: lessons from a flawed election', p 94.
24. The timing of the elections does not support Bratton's contention that autocrats were vulnerable in elections up to the end of 1992, but that after that most leaders had learned 'how to control the process of competitive elections so that they can win a grudging stamp of approval from western donors but still hang onto power'. (M Bratton, International versus Domestic Pressures for Democratization in Africa, MSU Working Papers on Political Reform in Africa, 12, 15 November, 1994, p 10, quoted in Joseph, 'Democratization in Africa after 1989', p 368). Those I have classified as falling with honesty are dated: Banda (1994), Buyoya (1993), De Klerk (1994), Kaunda (1991), Kolingba (1993), Nguesso (1992), Pereira (1991) and Ratsiraka (1993). Those I have classified as succeeding with trickery are dated: Biya (1992), Bongo (1993), Campaore (1991), Conte (1993), Eyadema (1993), Gouled (1992), Moi (1992), Nguema (1996), Rawlings (1992) and Taya (1992). The end of 1992 was not therefore such a significant watershed.
25. The timing of the elections does not support Bratton's contention that autocrats were vulnerable in elections up to the end of 1992, but that after that most leaders had learned 'how to control the process of competitive elections so that they can win a grudging stamp of approval from western donors but still hang onto power'. (M Bratton, International versus Domestic Pressures for Democratization in Africa, MSU Working Papers on Political Reform in Africa, 12, 15 November, 1994, p 10, quoted in Joseph, 'Democratization in Africa after 1989', p 368). Those I have classified as falling with honesty are dated: Banda (1994), Buyoya (1993), De Klerk (1994), Kaunda (1991), Kolingba (1993), Nguesso (1992), Pereira (1991) and Ratsiraka (1993). Those I have classified as succeeding with trickery are dated: Biya (1992), Bongo (1993), Campaore (1991), Conte (1993), Eyadema (1993), Gouled (1992), Moi (1992), Nguema (1996), Rawlings (1992) and Taya (1992). The end of 1992 was not therefore such a significant watershed.
26. A grim example of the impact simply of gerrymandering is given by R Fox, 'Bleak future for multi-party elections in Kenya', Journal of Modern African Studies, 34 (4), 1996, pp 597-607.
27. C Lancaster, 'Democratisation in sub-Saharan Africa', Survival, 35 (3), 1993, p 44.