The early warning of humanitarian disasters: problems in building an early warning system

International Migration Review

Volumn 32, Issue 2, 1998, Pages 471-486

  Schmeidl, Susanne ^a   Jenkins, J Craig ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EARLY WARNING SYSTEM; FORECASTING APPROACH; HUMANITARIAN DISASTER; POLITICAL CONFLICT; POLITICAL FACTORS; POPULATION MIGRATION; REFUGEES;

EID: 0031664308     PISSN: 01979183     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2307/2547192     Document Type: Article

References (51)

1. Adelman, H. and A. Suhrke 1996 Early Warning and Conflict Management: Genocide in Rwanda. Joint Evaluation of Emergency Assistance to Rwanda. Toronto: York University Centre for Refugee Studies.
2. Allison, P. 1984 Event History Analysis. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
3. Andriole, S. J. and G. W. Hopple 1992 Applied Artificial Intelligence. New York: McGraw-Hill.
4. _ 1984 Revolution and Political Instability. London: Pinter.
5. Bond, D. 1997 FRED. Weston, MA: Virtual Research Associates.
6. Bond, D. and J. Bond 1995 PANDA Codebook. Cambridge, MA: Center for International Affairs, Harvard University.
7. Bond, D. and B. Vogele 1995 "Profiles of International Hotspots." Cambridge, MA: Center for International Affairs, Harvard University.
8. Bond, D., J. C. Jenkins, C. Taylor and K. Schock 1997 "Mapping Mass Political Conflict and Civil Society: The Prospects of Automated Development of Conflict Event Data." Journal of Conflict Resolution, 41:553-579.
9. Clark, L. 1989 Early Warning of Refugee Flows. Washington, DC: Refugee Policy Group.
10. _ 1983 Early Warning of Refugee Mass Influx Emergencies. Washington, DC: Refugee Policy Group.
11. Davies, J. and C. K. McDaniel 1996 "Dynamic Data for Early Warning of Ethnopolitical Conflict." Paper presented at International Studies Association, April, San Diego, CA.
12. _ 1993 "The Global Event-Data System." In International Event Data Developments. Ed. R. L. Merritt, R. G. Muncaster, and D. A. Zinnes. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
13. Dowry, A. and G. Loescher 1996 "Refugee Flows as Grounds for International Action," International Security, 21:43-71.
14. Duffy, G., T. R. Gurr, P. A. Schrodt, G. Mayer-Kres and P. Brecke 1996 "An Early Warning System for the United Nations: Internet or Not?" Mershon International Studies Review, 39:315-326.
15. Fein, H. 1994 "Tools of Alarms: Uses of Models for Explanation and Anticipation," The Journal of Ethno-Development, 4(1):31-36.
16. _ 1993 "Accounting for Genocide after 1945: Theories and Some Findings," International Journal on Group Rights, 1:79-106.
17. Gerner, D., P. Schrodt, R. Francisco and J. Weddle 1994 "Machine Coding of Events Using Regional and International Sources," International Studies Quarterly, 37:91-119.
18. Goldstone, J. 1991 "Explaining Revolution." In Revolutions of the Late Twentieth Century, Ed. J. Goldstone, T. G. Gurr, and F. Moshiri. Boulder, CO: Westview. Pp. 1-17.
19. Gordenker, L. 1992 "Early Warning: Conceptual and Practical Issues." Pp. 1-15. In Early Warning and Conflict Resolution. Ed. K. Rupesinghe and M. Kuroda, New York: St. Martins Press.
20. _ 1986 "Early Warning of Disastrous Population Movement," International Migration Review, 20(2):170-193.
21. Gurr, T. R. 1995 "The State Failure Project." Paper presented at the International Studies Association meeting, Chicago, IL. College Park, MD: Center for International Development and Conflict Management, University of Maryland.
22. _ 1994 "Testing and Using a Model of Communal Conflict for Early Warning," The Journal of Ethno-Development, 4(1):20-25.
23. _ 1993 Minorities at Risk. Washington, DC: U.S. Institute of Peace Press.
24. Gurr, T. R. and B. Harff 1996 Early Warning of Communal Conflict and Genocide. Tokyo: United Nations University Press.
25. Gurr, T. R. and M. Haxton 1996 "Minorities Report: Ethnopolitical Conflict in the 1990s." Paper presented at International Studies Association meeting, San Diego, CA. College Park, MD: Center for International Development and Conflict Management, University of Maryland.
26. Harff, B. 1996 "Early Warning of Potential Genocides: The Cases of Rwanda, Burundi, Bosnia and Abkhazia." In Early Warning of Communal Conflict and Humanitarian Disaster. Ed. T. R. Gurr and B. Harff, Tokyo: United Nations University Press.
27. _ 1994 "A Theoretical Model of Genocide and Politicides," The Journal of Ethno-Development, 4(1):25-31.
28. Jenkins, J. C. and S. Schmeidl 1996 "Ethnic Inequality, Weak States and Economic Dependence: The Root Causes of Refugee Migrations, 1975-1990." Paper presented at International Studies Association meeting, San Diego, CA.
29. _ 1994 "Flight from Violence: The Origins and Prospects of the World Refugee Crisis," Sociological Forum, 28:63-82.
30. Jongman, A. J. 1994 "The PIOOM Program on Monitoring and Early Warning of Humanitarian Crises," The Journal of Ethno-Development, 4(1):65-72.
31. King, G. 1989 Unifying Political Methodology. New York: Cambridge University Press.
32. Laurance, E. J. 1990 "Event Data and Policy Analysis: Improving the Potential for Applying Academic Research to Foreign and Defense Policy Problems," Policy Sciences, 23:111-132.
33. Loescher, G. and A. D. Loescher 1994 The Global Refugee Crisis. Santa Barbara, CA: ABC-CLIO.
34. Mallery, J. 1991 "Semantic Content Analysis: A New Methodology for the RELATUS Natural Language Environment." In Artificial Intelligence and International Politics. Ed. V. M. Hudson. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.
35. Ragin, C. 1987 The Comparative Method. Berkeley: University of California Press.
36. Rupesinghe, K. and M. Kuroda, eds. 1992 Early Warning and Conflict Resolution. New York: St. Martins Press.
37. Schmeidl, S. 1997 "Exploring the Causes of Forced Migration: A Pooled Time Series Analysis, 1971-1990," Social Science Quarterly, 78(2).
38. _ 1995 From Root Cause Assessment to Preventive Diplomacy: Possibilities and Limitations of the Early Warning of Forced Migration. Ph.D. Dissertation, Department of Sociology, Ohio State University, Columbus.
39. Schmeidl, S. and J. C. Jenkins 1996 "Early Warning Indicators of Forced Migration: In John L. Davies and Ted Robert Gurr (eds.). Preventive Measures: Building Risk Assesment and Crisis Early Warning Systems. Boulder, Co.: Romer and Littlefield.
40. Schrodt, P. 1996 "Implementation and Methodology," Mershon International Studies Review, 32:319-320.
41. _ 1995 KEDS: Kansas Events Data System. Lawrence: University of Kansas, Department of Political Sciences.
42. Schrodt, P. and D. Gerner 1994 "Validity Assessment of Machine-Coded Event Data Set for the Middle East, 1982-1992," American Journal of Political Science, 18:132-156.
43. Sherman, F. 1994 "Sherfacs: A Cross-Paradigm, Hierarchical and Contextually Sensitive Conflict Management Data Set," International Interactions, 20:79-100.
44. Singer, J. D. and M. Small 1993 Correlates of War Project: Data Files. Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan.
45. Singer, J. D. and M. D. Wallace 1979 To Auger Well: Early Warning Indicators in World Politics. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
46. Sylvan, D. and S. J. Thorson 1980 "Choosing Appropriate Techniques for Socio-Political Forecasting," Policy Sciences, 12:265-282.
47. United Nations, General Assembly 1992 "An Agenda for Peace: Preventive Diplomacy and Related Matters." A/RES/120. 91st Plenary Meeting. December 18.
48. U.S. Department of State 1994 "RADARS: Reporting, Analysis, Decision-Making and Response." Washington, DC: Africa Desk, U.S. Department of State.
49. Wallensteen, P. and M. Sollenberg 1995 "After the Cold War: Emerging Patterns of Armed Conflict 1989-94." In States in Armed Conflict 1994. Ed. M. Sollenberg, Report No. 39, Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University. Pp. 7-23.
50. Weiner, M. 1996 "Bad Neighbors, Bad Neighborhoods: An Inquiry into the Causes of Refugee Flows," International Security, 21:5-42.
51. Zolberg, A., A. Suhrke and S. Aguayo 1989 Escape from Violence: Conflict and the Refugee Crisis in the Developing World. New York: Oxford University Press.